以下文章来源于混沌学园 ，作者混沌学园 混沌学园 . 学创新，就在混沌！ 本文整理自李丰在混沌学园的2026开年课程，来自微信公众号： 混沌学园 ，作者：李丰，原文标 题：《李丰：2026，关于赚钱、AI与竞争逻辑，我的展望和预判》，题图来自：AI生成 关于AI下半场：所有技术周期都有上半场和下半场。上半场美国领先技术，但下半场，中国更有优 势。而每一个技术浪潮到了后半场，中国往往开始追赶并反超。 关于中国AI机遇：AI+硬件将成为中国的战略机遇，当"软件+硬件"成为中国极为擅长的组合拳，我 们能够利用中国制造业"卷"出来的供应链优势，实现产业转换与升级。 关于终极竞争：中美AI竞争里，中国正握住另一张底牌，数据。十年之后，大国竞争的终局将聚焦 于两件事：能源和数据。谁在这两个问题上有更确定性和长期的优势，谁就有可能赢。 以下为演讲内容： 感谢混沌的邀请，让我每年有一次机会来跟大家分享。我每年也以此为契机，试图从我们的角度来探 讨：这个世界和我们身处的中国，为什么发展到了今天这个样子？为什么你周围的状况，和你切身的 体验是现在这般模样？ 今天我们先讨论一下最近非常热的话题，也是中美竞争的焦点，其核心主要在于： ...

站在2026年，我们会猛然发现，过去几年的技术爆发仅仅是时代的序章，真正的社会级应用与产业洗牌才刚刚开始。面对未来5到20年的巨变 与重构，新一轮的红利与机遇到底在哪里？ 峰瑞资本创始合伙人李丰，在混沌学园的年度重磅分享中，给出了他关于2026年的关键展望，这不仅是一次关于AI技术的讨论，更是一场关 于钱、科技创新与AI产业竞争逻辑的深度复盘。 关于AI下半场：所有技术周期都有上半场和下半场。上半场美国领先技术，但下半场，中国更有优势。而每一个技术浪潮到了后半场，中国 往往开始追赶并反超。 关于中国AI机遇：AI+硬件将成为中国的战略机遇，当"软件+硬件"成为中国极为擅长的组合拳，我们能够利用中国制造业"卷"出来的供应链 优势，实现产业转换与升级。 关于终极竞争：中美AI竞争里，中国正握住另一张底牌，数据。十年之后，大国竞争的终局将聚焦于两件事：能源和数据。谁在这两个问题 上有更确定性和长期的优势，谁就有可能赢。 以下为李丰老师2026开年课程的干货精编，建议收藏细读。本文仅占全部内容的50%，完整内容在混沌APP。 感谢混沌的邀请，让我每年有一次机会来跟大家分享。我每年也以此为契机，试图从我们的角度来探讨： ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the technological explosion of recent years is just the prologue, with true societal applications and industrial reshuffling beginning now, presenting new opportunities and dividends for the next 5 to 20 years [1][2] - The second half of the AI era will see China gaining advantages, particularly in the combination of AI and hardware, leveraging its manufacturing supply chain for industrial transformation and upgrades [1][2] - The ultimate competition in AI between China and the US will focus on data and energy, with the long-term advantage in these areas determining the outcome of great power competition [1][2] Group 2 - The discussion centers on whether AI represents a productivity revolution, with the importance of participation in AI depending on this belief [2][3] - Historical productivity revolutions have taken time to transition from technological emergence to significant societal impact, indicating that AI will also require a lengthy evolution [3][4] - The current AI wave is unprecedented due to the massive influx of capital, with a significant amount of liquidity in the market driving investment into AI technologies [12][23] Group 3 - The AI evolution has experienced four major waves, with significant breakthroughs leading to applications in facial recognition, autonomous driving, and AI in pharmaceuticals, particularly accelerated by the pandemic [8][10] - The current investment landscape is shifting towards applications that can generate revenue, moving from a focus on technology to practical implementations in various sectors [28][39] - The investment logic in the AI era emphasizes the need for substantial changes across front-end, mid-end, and back-end technologies to create successful companies [46][47] Group 4 - China's strategic opportunity lies in the integration of AI with strong industrial sectors, particularly through the "AI + manufacturing" initiative, which aims to leverage AI for various applications [57][60] - The development of AI applications in China is supported by advancements in hardware and supply chain efficiencies, allowing for competitive pricing and widespread adoption [60][62] - The future of AI applications will focus on vertical domain agents and AI-driven smart hardware, with a clear shift towards practical, revenue-generating solutions [51][39] Group 5 - The international relations landscape is shifting, potentially providing China with a strategic window to enhance its global influence and international business opportunities [74][76] - The RMB is expected to have appreciation potential but not significantly, as the structure of China's foreign trade is evolving towards higher value-added products [79][81] - Data governance is becoming a critical factor in the tech competition between China and the US, with the establishment of a national data bureau indicating a new phase in data management and utilization [90][92]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying investment logic behind the AI boom and macroeconomic trends as presented by Li Feng, founder of Fengrui Capital, in the context of the 2026 outlook [2][3]. Group 1: AI Investment Insights - Li Feng has identified key investment opportunities over the years, including the rise of domestic brands, the significance of supply chains in retail expansion, and the shift towards hard technology [5]. - The current AI wave is linked to a massive liquidity influx, with central banks injecting $12 trillion into the market from 2020 to 2021, leading to a search for high-value narratives [8][9]. - The AI investment landscape is evolving through three stages: from large models to general agents, and finally to practical applications in vertical fields and AI hardware [6][23]. Group 2: Macro Trends and Strategic Opportunities - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 includes a strategic contraction in the U.S. and increased international cooperation from China, impacting global capital markets and AI industries [19][17]. - The article discusses the potential for China to leverage its strong supply chains and technological advancements to create high-value global brands in the AI hardware sector [13][16]. - The future of AI is framed as a potential productivity revolution, with the timeline for widespread impact being longer than the current hype suggests [11][12]. Group 3: Course Highlights and Learning Opportunities - The course led by Li Feng aims to provide insights into the relationship between excess liquidity and the AI narrative, as well as the implications for the U.S. stock market [6][23]. - Participants will explore the investment logic of AI, including the transition from theoretical models to practical applications, and the competitive landscape for Chinese firms in the AI sector [20][21]. - The course also addresses the implications of U.S.-China relations on financial markets and the role of data as a production factor in the coming decade [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of AI investment, highlighting the potential for a productivity revolution driven by AI and the unique opportunities within China's AI and biopharmaceutical sectors as the global market undergoes significant changes [3][4][8]. Group 1: AI Investment Landscape - AI is expected to drive a productivity revolution, but the timeline for this transformation remains uncertain, as historical precedents suggest that such revolutions take longer than anticipated [8][10]. - The current AI wave is unprecedented due to macroeconomic factors, including significant liquidity injections by global central banks during the COVID-19 pandemic, which have led to inflated asset prices [15][18]. - The investment logic in the AI sector is evolving through three stages: focusing on technology itself, exploring imaginative applications, and finally, investing in practical, revenue-generating applications [28][31][36]. Group 2: China's Position in AI - China has experienced a critical shift in its position within the AI wave, with the potential to catch up and even surpass the U.S. in certain applications as the technology matures and becomes more widely adopted [68][69]. - The Chinese AI industry is characterized by a strong focus on practical applications, leveraging existing infrastructure and user habits to drive rapid adoption and innovation [68]. - The article emphasizes that China's structural advantages in AI hardware and software development, combined with a robust manufacturing base, position it well for future growth in the global market [64][66]. Group 3: Biopharmaceutical Opportunities - The biopharmaceutical sector in China is witnessing a transformative moment, with a significant increase in the value of licensing deals, indicating a growing global presence [70][71]. - Future developments in China's biopharmaceutical industry will focus on improving research efficiency, enhancing the ability to discover new drugs, and exploring scientific breakthroughs that could lead to significant advancements [72].

Core Insights - The AI industry is still in its early stages, despite being considered a productivity revolution, and it may take longer than expected to fully realize its potential [4][7][8] - The surge in asset prices in global capital markets has been driven by unprecedented liquidity, necessitating a grand narrative like AI to justify high valuations [4][10][11] - Investment strategies in technology typically progress through three stages: investing in the technology itself, investing in imaginative applications, and finally investing in practical applications [15][18] Investment Landscape - The primary focus of investments from 2022 to 2024 has been on AI infrastructure, embodied intelligence, AI applications, AI in drug development, and future technologies, covering over 80% of recent investments [6] - The primary investment themes have included AI hardware and robotics, with a notable increase in activity starting from the Chinese New Year of 2023 [5][6] - The current investment climate is characterized by a concentration on large models and robotics, with expectations for improvement in the primary market over the next six months [5][6] Market Dynamics - The global capital market's total value has surpassed GDP, reaching approximately $130 trillion, which is over 1.1 times the global nominal GDP of $114 trillion [10][11] - The emergence of ChatGPT in November 2022 provided a rationale for the surge in asset prices, as capital sought a narrative to support the inflated valuations [10][11] - The U.S. financial and tech sectors have shown resilience, with significant contributions from the AI narrative, leading to a situation where major tech companies have market values exceeding the GDP of most countries [11][12] Future Outlook - The AI wave is expected to evolve, with a shift towards practical applications and vertical AI agents, particularly in industries with established digitalization [26][28] - The development of AI hardware is crucial, as new consumer devices will create demand for innovative chips tailored for AI applications [26][28] - The potential for China to surpass the U.S. in AI applications exists, as historical precedents show that extensive application of technology can lead to significant advancements [31]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk emphasizes that the only way to make everyone wealthy is through AI and robotics, sparking significant discussion about the future of the economy [1] Group 1: AI and Robotics Developments - Tesla's Dojo supercomputer has become a core engine for AI training, achieving over 100 ExaFLOPS, significantly enhancing AI model learning efficiency [4] - The second-generation Optimus robot has transitioned from the lab to mass production, capable of performing complex tasks, with costs reduced from $20,000 to under $5,000 [4] Group 2: Economic Implications of AI and Robotics - The integration of AI and robotics is expected to initiate a new era of "unmanned production," where robots can work continuously, replacing 90% of repetitive physical labor [6] - The service robot market could exceed $1 trillion if humanoid robots are adopted globally, creating millions of new jobs across the entire supply chain [8] Group 3: Tesla's Practical Applications - At Tesla's Texas Gigafactory, Optimus robots have replaced 30% of assembly line workers, increasing production efficiency by 40% and reducing product costs by 25% [10] - Tesla's AI driving system has saved over 5 million drivers commuting time, indirectly enhancing overall societal productivity [10] Group 4: Global Trends and Responses - Concerns about AI and robotics leading to job losses and increased wealth disparity are met with Musk's proposal for wealth distribution through mechanisms like universal basic income [11] - Countries worldwide are investing in AI and robotics, with China leading in industrial robot installations, the U.S. focusing on humanoid robots, and the EU promoting AI ethics and industry integration [11] Group 5: Future Outlook - Musk's efforts are not just about expanding Tesla's business but are part of a broader productivity revolution that could allow everyone to benefit from technological advancements [13] - The transformation driven by AI and robotics is seen as a necessary evolution in productivity, enabling humans to focus on creative and innovative tasks [14]

Core Insights - Lenovo's ThinkPad brand continues to innovate with the introduction of AI PCs, emphasizing a user-centered design approach that has been consistent throughout its history [1][2] Group 1: Product Innovations - The 2025 ThinkPad event showcased the integration of AI technology into productivity tools, highlighting the ThinkPad AI PC's role in enhancing efficiency [1] - In 2025, ThinkPad has launched 28 new AI PC models, with AI PCs now accounting for over 50% of total sales [2] - Lenovo introduced the world's first legal AI PC in July 2023, focusing on five professional fields and partnering with 85 leading ecosystem partners [2] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - Intel has been a long-term partner of ThinkPad for 33 years, emphasizing a collaborative journey based on trust and innovation [2] - Intel plans to release the third-generation Core Ultra processor at CES next month, which is expected to significantly enhance the computational power of AI PCs [2] Group 3: AI Integration in Sports - Lenovo, as the official technology partner for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, launched the Lenovo Tianxi AI Football Intelligent Agent, designed to enhance the viewing experience for global audiences [3] - The AI Football Intelligent Agent features capabilities such as memory, full-cycle engagement, and tactical analysis, transforming the way fans interact with the sport [3]

Core Insights - Lenovo showcased its innovative AI PC technology and the integration of AI into productivity tools during the 2025 ThinkPad event in Beijing, emphasizing the brand's commitment to technological innovation and user experience [1][2] Group 1: Product Innovations - The ThinkPad X1 Carbon and ThinkPad P1 prototype machines were unveiled, highlighting their user-centered design and the pursuit of an exceptional user experience [1] - The ThinkPad P1 prototype features a slim 16mm design capable of handling top-tier CPU and GPU performance, with dynamic power distribution for optimized performance during various tasks [2] - Lenovo has released 28 new AI PC models in 2025, with AI PCs now accounting for over 50% of sales, focusing on five professional fields and partnering with 85 leading ecosystem partners [2] Group 2: AI Integration - Lenovo introduced the world's first full-cycle AI viewing partner, the Lenovo Tianxi AI Football Intelligent Agent for the FIFA World Cup, enhancing the viewing experience for global audiences [3] - The Tianxi AI Football Intelligent Agent possesses three core capabilities: memory, full-cycle engagement, and tactical analysis, allowing fans to deepen their understanding of the game [3] Group 3: Performance and Reliability - A presentation by a zoologist highlighted the rugged performance of the ThinkPad T14p, which operated reliably in extreme conditions, showcasing its durability and capability for field research [4]

Core Insights - The event showcased the integration of AI technology into ThinkPad products, emphasizing the brand's commitment to innovation and user experience [3][5][8] - Lenovo introduced two classic ThinkPad prototype models, highlighting their design philosophy centered around user needs and performance [5][7] - The ThinkPad X1 Carbon and ThinkPad P1 prototypes demonstrate significant advancements in lightweight design and high-performance capabilities [7][8] Group 1: Product Innovations - The ThinkPad X1 Carbon prototype features a reduced screen bezel from 18-20mm to just 9mm, utilizing lightweight industrial metal materials while maintaining durability [7] - The ThinkPad P1 prototype, with a thickness of only 16mm, supports high-end CPU and GPU performance through innovative engineering designs, including a dedicated power supply channel and a patented cooling system [7][8] - Lenovo has released 28 AI PC models in 2025, with AI PCs now accounting for over 50% of sales, focusing on various professional fields [8] Group 2: AI Integration - Lenovo's Tianxi AI Football Smart Agent, launched as the world's first full-cycle AI viewing partner for the FIFA World Cup, enhances the viewing experience for fans [9][11] - The Tianxi AI Football Smart Agent features capabilities such as memory, tactical analysis, and user habit recognition, transforming the way fans engage with matches [11][13] - The collaboration with Intel has been pivotal, with the upcoming release of the Intel® Core™ Ultra processor expected to significantly enhance AI PC performance [8][9] Group 3: User Experiences - A lawyer shared a case where the ThinkPad X1 Carbon, powered by Intel's Ultra 9 processor, completed a complex legal document review in a fraction of the time it would typically take [14] - An AI microfilm project showcased how the ThinkPad P1 enabled a team to produce a short film in just 24 hours, significantly reducing production time and costs [16] - An animal biologist recounted using the ThinkPad T14p in extreme conditions, demonstrating its reliability and performance in challenging environments [18]