澳元/美元 1月8日，根据ADP研究所周三发布的数据，继11月下滑后，美国私营部门就业人数增加了4.1万人。而 此前彭博社调查的经济学家预估中值为增加5万人。 这份报告进一步印证了劳动力市场正在逐渐降温、 但并未急剧恶化的趋势。近期的招聘活动表现平淡，失业率有所上升，这不仅拖累了经济学家对新一年 的预期，也打击了美国民众对自身就业前景的信心。 此次增长主要得益于教育、医疗服务以及休闲和 酒店业的推动。相比之下，专业服务和制造业的就业人数出现下滑。值得注意的是，在经历了数月的裁 员后，小企业重新恢复了招聘。 ADP首席经济学家、彭博电视撰稿人内拉·理查森在声明中表示："尽管 大型雇主缩减了规模，但小微企业已从11月的岗位流失中恢复过来，在年底实现了正向招聘。" 另外，美联储负责监管事务的副主席鲍曼表示，美联储正在重新审视其对部分银行评级的方式，延续特 朗普时期启动的一项更广泛努力，即将监管重点重新聚焦于对银行构成重大风险的问题。 鲍曼在谈及 她设想中对所谓CAMELS评级框架的调整时表示："监管运作原则强调，检查结论和报告必须聚焦于实 质性的金融风险。"该评级框架对银行的各个组成部分按一到五级进行评分，具体包括 ...

当地时间周二（12月16日），美国劳工统计局发布报告称，11月的美国非农就业人数略高于预期。美联储将在明年1月举行2026年首次议息会 议。市场普遍预期，美联储继续降息的概率不大。 非农数据公布后，国际油价快速跳水，WTI原油、布油跌破60美元后加速下挫。现货黄金上扬逾20美元，最高至4330美元/盎司。 美联储继续降息概率低 就业和通胀数据是美联储货币政策制定的关键指标。在最近一次会议上，美联储将基准利率下调了25个基点，但暗示进一步降息的门槛更高。 自9月以来，美联储已连续三次降息，将基准基金利率降至3.5%—3.75%的目标区间。 11月就业数据发布后，芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具数据显示，明年1月降息概率仅为24.4%，和数据发布前变化不大。而Polymarket网站 最新预测显示，美联储明年1月维持利率不变的概率78%，降息25个基点的概率21%，降息50个基点的概率1.7%。 就业数据好于预期 美国劳工统计局周二公布11月就业报告和10月的部分报告。因为联邦政府停摆，美国政府关闭了43天，无法收集足够的数据，此次劳工统计局 并没有发布10月的失业率和其他10月数据。 报告显示，11月非农就业岗位 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market showed unexpected weakness in November, with ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [1][5][6] - The decline in employment contrasts sharply with the upwardly revised addition of 47,000 jobs in October and falls significantly short of economists' expectations for a 40,000 increase [1][6] Employment Trends - Large enterprises (50 or more employees) added a net of 90,000 jobs, while small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) lost 120,000 jobs, with firms employing 20-49 employees losing 74,000 jobs [1][6] - The overall decline in employment is the largest single-month drop since March 2023 [1][6] Industry Performance - The education and healthcare sectors added 33,000 jobs, and the leisure and hospitality sector increased by 13,000 jobs [2] - The most significant job losses occurred in professional and business services, which saw a decrease of 26,000 jobs, followed by information services with a loss of 20,000 jobs, manufacturing with a loss of 18,000 jobs, and both financial activities and construction losing 9,000 jobs each [2] Wage Growth - Wage growth also slowed, with wages for employees remaining in their positions rising by 4.4% year-over-year in November, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from October [3][7] - ADP's Chief Economist noted that the hiring pace has been inconsistent due to cautious consumer behavior and an uncertain macroeconomic environment, with small businesses being the hardest hit [3][7] Federal Reserve Implications - The ADP report is critical as it is the last employment data available before the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10, where there is a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, despite some officials expressing concerns about the necessity of further easing [3][7] - Recent trends indicate a divergence among policymakers regarding the need for rate cuts to prevent further labor market issues versus concerns about exacerbating inflation, which remains above the Fed's 2% target [3][7] Future Employment Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has postponed the release of the November non-farm payroll report, originally scheduled for December 5, to December 16 due to a government shutdown affecting data collection [3][7] - There are indications that the labor market, previously viewed as balanced with low hiring and low layoffs, may be shifting as several large companies, including Apple and Verizon, have begun announcing layoffs [3][7]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a significant cooling, with private sector jobs decreasing by 32,000 in November, marking the largest decline since March 2023, and falling short of the expected increase of 40,000 jobs [1][4]. Employment Trends - Small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 employees, are particularly affected, losing a total of 120,000 jobs in November, with firms employing 20 to 49 people accounting for 74,000 of these job losses [5][9]. - In contrast, large enterprises with 50 or more employees added 90,000 jobs, indicating a stark difference in resilience between small and large businesses in the current economic climate [12]. Wage Growth - Wage growth for retained employees has slowed, with a year-over-year increase of 4.4%, down by 0.1 percentage points from October [2]. Industry Performance - The employment data reveals a broad decline across various sectors, with professional and business services losing 26,000 jobs, the information sector shedding 20,000 jobs, and manufacturing reducing its workforce by 18,000 [12]. - Only a few sectors saw job growth, notably education and healthcare services, which added 33,000 jobs, and leisure and hospitality, which increased by 13,000 jobs; however, these gains were insufficient to offset the widespread declines in other industries [12]. Federal Reserve Implications - This employment report is critical ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on December 9-10, with futures traders estimating a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, despite some officials expressing concerns about further easing [4][16]. - Divergent views among Federal Reserve policymakers have emerged, with some advocating for rate cuts to prevent further deterioration in the labor market, while others worry that additional cuts could exacerbate inflation, which remains above the Fed's 2% target [16].

Core Viewpoint - The September non-farm payroll data indicates a marginal recovery in overall employment, but structural issues remain, suggesting that the improvement may not be sustained into October [1][3]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll Data Overview - Non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, exceeding the expected 50,000, with revisions showing July's data adjusted down from 79,000 to 72,000 and August's from 22,000 to -4,000 [1]. - Job growth was concentrated in two sectors: education and healthcare services (+59,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000), accounting for about 90% of total job additions [1]. - Other sectors like manufacturing and professional services experienced job losses [1]. Unemployment Rate and Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, primarily due to an increase in labor supply, with the labor force participation rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4% [2]. - Household survey data indicated an increase of 251,000 in employment, while labor supply grew by 472,000 [2]. Wage Growth and Market Expectations - Hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3% [2]. - The annualized rate of wage growth over six months decreased from 3.8% to 3.6%, while year-on-year growth remained at 3.8% [2]. - Following the data release, market expectations for a rate cut in December increased, with the probability rising from 29.3% to 34.9% [2]. Future Employment Outlook - Despite the marginal improvement in September, the employment situation may not continue to improve into October, as initial jobless claims have stabilized but continued claims are rising [3]. - The ADP employment data for October suggests job additions remain below 50,000, and job vacancy data from Indeed continues to decline [3]. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated, with probabilities dropping from nearly 100% to around 40% due to comments from Federal Reserve officials expressing concerns about inflation [4]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for October will not be released due to government shutdown, making September's data the only reference for the Fed's December meeting [5]. - The overall direction for rate cuts in the coming year remains clear, with expectations for at least three more cuts based on current economic conditions [5].

Employment Data Summary - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the forecast of 50,000[1] - Job growth was primarily concentrated in two sectors: education and healthcare services (+59,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000), accounting for about 90% of total job additions[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, driven by an increase in labor supply with a participation rate of 62.4%[1][2] Wage and Hourly Data - Hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations, increasing by 0.2% month-over-month, compared to the forecast of 0.3%[2] - Year-over-year wage growth remained at 3.8%, matching expectations[2] - Average weekly hours worked remained stable at 34.2 hours, a low level since 2015[2] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the employment data release, the market's expectation for a December rate cut increased, with the probability rising from 29.3% to 34.9%[2] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making may be influenced by the lack of recent employment data, leading to a cautious stance on rate cuts in December[4][5] - Recent statements from Fed officials indicate a preference for maintaining rates, with 7 out of 14 officials leaning towards not cutting rates in December[4][5] Economic Indicators and Future Projections - The overall employment situation remains weak but has not deteriorated significantly, with initial jobless claims between 220,000 and 230,000 since October[3] - The ADP report indicates job additions remain below 50,000, suggesting ongoing labor market challenges[3] - The market anticipates potential rate cuts in early 2024, with expectations for three additional cuts based on current economic conditions[7][19]

Core Viewpoint - The September non-farm payroll data indicates a marginal recovery in overall employment, although structural issues remain. The report shows an increase in non-farm employment that exceeded market expectations, but the growth is concentrated in a few sectors, highlighting ongoing weaknesses in the labor market [3][8]. Employment Situation - Non-farm employment increased by 119,000, surpassing the expected 50,000, with revisions to previous months showing a downward adjustment of 33,000 jobs [16][18]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, primarily due to an increase in labor supply, with the labor force participation rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4% [20][19]. - Job growth was concentrated in two sectors: education and health services (+59,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000), which together accounted for about 90% of total job additions [18][19]. Wage Growth and Labor Market Indicators - Hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3%. Year-on-year wage growth remained at 3.8% [27][29]. - The average weekly hours worked remained stable at 34.2 hours, indicating a low level of labor utilization [27]. Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for a rate cut in December increased, with the probability rising from 29.3% to 34.9% [29]. - The Federal Reserve's decision-making may be influenced by the lack of recent employment data, as the next non-farm payroll report will not be available until after the December FOMC meeting [14][15]. - There is a prevailing sentiment that the Fed may not cut rates in December, but further cuts are anticipated in early 2024, contingent on sustained improvements in employment data [15][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The US September non - farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear. The employment market has not significantly deteriorated, and the urgency for a rate cut is not strong. The December interest rate meeting is more likely to result in no rate cut and a dovish stance on the future rate - cut path [3][4][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US September Non - farm Payrolls and Interest Rate Outlook - **Employment Data**: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than expected, and the labor participation rate slightly rebounded to 62.4%. Hourly wage growth was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, with the month - on - month rate down from the previous value [3][10] - **Industry Breakdown**: New jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (59,000), leisure and hospitality (47,000), construction (19,000), and retail (14,000). Sectors such as transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, manufacturing, and the federal government continued to lay off workers [3] - **Interest Rate Meeting Outlook**: As the last employment report before the December interest rate meeting, the data's lag reduces its reference value. Market expectations for a rate cut have slightly increased [4][37] 3.2 Investment Recommendations - With a cumulative 50bp rate cut in 2025 and no further acceleration of the economic slowdown, most Fed officials prefer to pause the rate - cut rhythm. Precious metals will continue to consolidate, US Treasury yields will oscillate at recent highs, the US dollar index will oscillate with a slight upward bias, and high - valuation pressure on US stocks will be prominent, with short - term volatility remaining high [5][42]

Economic Activity - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity changed little from the prior report, with three districts reporting modest growth, five districts showing no change, and five experiencing slight softening [2] - Consumer spending on retail goods has decreased, with significant differences noted across income groups [2][3] Sector Performance - Demand for electric vehicles has increased due to auto sales, while leisure and hospitality sectors have seen a decline in international traveler spending [3] - Manufacturing has been negatively impacted by higher tariffs and waning demand, with agriculture, energy, and transportation sectors also generally down [4] Employment Trends - Employment levels remain stable, but labor demand is muted, with many employers reducing headcounts through layoffs and attrition [5] - There is a strain in labor supply across hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing sectors, potentially due to recent immigration policies [5] Wage and Inflation Dynamics - Wages are growing at a moderate pace, but health insurance expenses are driving up overall labor costs [6] - Prices have continued to increase, with input costs rising at a faster pace, and there is variability in how businesses pass on tariff costs to final prices [6][7] Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed is considering ending quantitative tightening and is focused on finding the right level of reserves in the system, with no current plans to revert to quantitative easing [8][9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the labor market in the United States, specifically focusing on the revisions to payroll employment growth as announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Preliminary Revision of Jobs**: The BLS announced a preliminary revision of -911,000 jobs to payroll employment growth between April 2024 and March 2025, indicating a significant downward adjustment [2][3]. - **Impact on Job Growth**: The revision suggests that job growth averaged only 71,000 jobs per month during the period, compared to the previously reported 147,000 jobs per month [6]. - **Sector Distribution**: The downward revision was broad-based across industries, with the largest impacts seen in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing, and trade sectors. Transportation and utilities were the only sectors not experiencing downward revisions [11]. - **Small vs. Large Businesses**: The slowdown in job growth was more pronounced in small- and medium-sized businesses, which saw near-zero payroll growth, while large businesses experienced a 1.7% year-over-year payroll growth [20]. Additional Important Insights - **Productivity Growth**: The revisions are expected to lead to upward adjustments in productivity growth estimates, with nonfarm productivity growth likely revised to 1.7% year-over-year [40]. - **Labor Market Tightness**: Other indicators suggest that the labor market has softened significantly, with the underlying pace of job growth estimated to have decelerated to about 25,000 jobs per month, below the breakeven rate of 70,000 jobs per month needed to stabilize the unemployment rate [43][49]. - **Birth-Death Model Concerns**: The BLS's birth-death model, which estimates job creation from business openings and closings, is likely overstating payroll growth by about 30,000 jobs per month [24]. - **Future Revisions**: The BLS will incorporate these revisions into the establishment survey with the January employment report released in February, which will also revise job growth estimates for the remainder of 2025 [32]. Conclusion - The significant downward revision in payroll employment growth highlights potential weaknesses in the labor market, particularly among small and medium-sized businesses. The implications for productivity growth and economic indicators such as GDP and GDI are noteworthy, suggesting a need for careful monitoring of labor market trends moving forward [36][40].