智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，9月美国非农数据是一份"总量边际回升、结构仍有瑕疵"的 就业报告，整体来看，相比于7-8月份，还是边际有所改善。但结合其他数据综合来看，10月份以来， 就业状况可能并未持续改善。该行指出，就业数据真空期或促使美联储在12月份暂停降息；但12月份不 降息，明年年初也会降息，从目前的就业和通胀情况来看，尚没有达到让美联储调整至可以保持较长时 间暂停降息的节奏；从中期来看，明年降息的大方向依然较为清晰。 华创证券主要观点如下： 9月非农数据简述 1、新增非农回升且好于预期。新增非农11.9万，预期5万。7月数据从7.9万下修至7.2万，8月数据从2.2 万下修至-0.4万。就业增长主要集中在2个行业，教育保健服务（+5.9万，前值+4.7万）、休闲和酒店业 （+4.7万，前值+3.2万）合计占总新增就业的约9成；其次是政府（+2.2万，前值-2.2万）、建筑（+1.9 万，前值-1.4万）、批发和零售。制造业、专业和商业服务的就业萎缩。 9月非农数据是一份"总量边际回升、结构仍有瑕疵"的就业报告，整体来看，相比于7-8月份，还是边际 有所改善。好的一方面是，1）非农就业人数明 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】9 月美国非农数据点评 就业数据真空或促使联储 12 月不降息 主要观点 9 月美国非农数据简述 1、新增非农回升且好于预期。新增非农 11.9 万，预期 5 万。7 月数据从 7.9 万 下修至 7.2 万，8 月数据从 2.2 万下修至-0.4 万。就业增长主要集中在 2 个行 业，教育保健服务（+5.9 万，前值+4.7 万）、休闲和酒店业（+4.7 万，前值+3.2 万）合计占总新增就业的约 9 成；其次是政府（+2.2 万，前值-2.2 万）、建筑 （+1.9 万，前值-1.4 万）、批发和零售。制造业、专业和商业服务的就业萎缩。 2、失业率超预期上行。失业率录得 4.4%（4.44%），高于预期和前值的 4.3% （4.324%）。失业率超预期上行主要源于劳动力供给回升：劳动参与率回升 0.1 个百分点至 62.4%，高于预期的 62.3%，家庭调查口径的新增就业增长 25.1 万， 劳动力供给增长 47.2 万。 3、时薪增速小幅低于预期。时薪环比 0.2%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.4%，6 个月 变化的折年率从 3.8%降至 3.6%。同比增速 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 付春生（18482259975） 报告摘要 9月非农数据简述 1、新增非农回升且好于预期。 新增非农11.9万，预期5万。7月数据从7.9万下修至7.2万，8月数据从2.2 万下修至-0.4万。就业增长主要集中在2个行业，教育保健服务（+5.9万，前值+4.7万）、休闲和酒店业 （+4.7万，前值+3.2万）合计占总新增就业的约9成；其次是政府（+2.2万，前值-2.2万）、建筑（+1.9 万，前值-1.4万）、批发和零售。制造业、专业和商业服务的就业萎缩。 2、失业率超预期上行。 失业率录得4.4%（4.44%），高于预期和前值的4.3%（4.324%）。失业率超预 期上行主要源于劳动力供给回升：劳动参与率回升0.1个百分点至62.4%，高于预期的62.3%，家庭调查口 径的新增就业增长25.1万，劳动力供给增长47.2万。 3、时薪增速小幅低于预期。 时薪环比0.2%，预期0.3%，前值0.4%，6个月变化的折年率从3.8%降至 3.6%。同比增速3.8%，预期3.7%，前值3.8%。周工时持平于34 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The US September non - farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear. The employment market has not significantly deteriorated, and the urgency for a rate cut is not strong. The December interest rate meeting is more likely to result in no rate cut and a dovish stance on the future rate - cut path [3][4][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US September Non - farm Payrolls and Interest Rate Outlook - **Employment Data**: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than expected, and the labor participation rate slightly rebounded to 62.4%. Hourly wage growth was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, with the month - on - month rate down from the previous value [3][10] - **Industry Breakdown**: New jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (59,000), leisure and hospitality (47,000), construction (19,000), and retail (14,000). Sectors such as transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, manufacturing, and the federal government continued to lay off workers [3] - **Interest Rate Meeting Outlook**: As the last employment report before the December interest rate meeting, the data's lag reduces its reference value. Market expectations for a rate cut have slightly increased [4][37] 3.2 Investment Recommendations - With a cumulative 50bp rate cut in 2025 and no further acceleration of the economic slowdown, most Fed officials prefer to pause the rate - cut rhythm. Precious metals will continue to consolidate, US Treasury yields will oscillate at recent highs, the US dollar index will oscillate with a slight upward bias, and high - valuation pressure on US stocks will be prominent, with short - term volatility remaining high [5][42]

Economic Activity - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity changed little from the prior report, with three districts reporting modest growth, five districts showing no change, and five experiencing slight softening [2] - Consumer spending on retail goods has decreased, with significant differences noted across income groups [2][3] Sector Performance - Demand for electric vehicles has increased due to auto sales, while leisure and hospitality sectors have seen a decline in international traveler spending [3] - Manufacturing has been negatively impacted by higher tariffs and waning demand, with agriculture, energy, and transportation sectors also generally down [4] Employment Trends - Employment levels remain stable, but labor demand is muted, with many employers reducing headcounts through layoffs and attrition [5] - There is a strain in labor supply across hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing sectors, potentially due to recent immigration policies [5] Wage and Inflation Dynamics - Wages are growing at a moderate pace, but health insurance expenses are driving up overall labor costs [6] - Prices have continued to increase, with input costs rising at a faster pace, and there is variability in how businesses pass on tariff costs to final prices [6][7] Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed is considering ending quantitative tightening and is focused on finding the right level of reserves in the system, with no current plans to revert to quantitative easing [8][9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the labor market in the United States, specifically focusing on the revisions to payroll employment growth as announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Preliminary Revision of Jobs**: The BLS announced a preliminary revision of -911,000 jobs to payroll employment growth between April 2024 and March 2025, indicating a significant downward adjustment [2][3]. - **Impact on Job Growth**: The revision suggests that job growth averaged only 71,000 jobs per month during the period, compared to the previously reported 147,000 jobs per month [6]. - **Sector Distribution**: The downward revision was broad-based across industries, with the largest impacts seen in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing, and trade sectors. Transportation and utilities were the only sectors not experiencing downward revisions [11]. - **Small vs. Large Businesses**: The slowdown in job growth was more pronounced in small- and medium-sized businesses, which saw near-zero payroll growth, while large businesses experienced a 1.7% year-over-year payroll growth [20]. Additional Important Insights - **Productivity Growth**: The revisions are expected to lead to upward adjustments in productivity growth estimates, with nonfarm productivity growth likely revised to 1.7% year-over-year [40]. - **Labor Market Tightness**: Other indicators suggest that the labor market has softened significantly, with the underlying pace of job growth estimated to have decelerated to about 25,000 jobs per month, below the breakeven rate of 70,000 jobs per month needed to stabilize the unemployment rate [43][49]. - **Birth-Death Model Concerns**: The BLS's birth-death model, which estimates job creation from business openings and closings, is likely overstating payroll growth by about 30,000 jobs per month [24]. - **Future Revisions**: The BLS will incorporate these revisions into the establishment survey with the January employment report released in February, which will also revise job growth estimates for the remainder of 2025 [32]. Conclusion - The significant downward revision in payroll employment growth highlights potential weaknesses in the labor market, particularly among small and medium-sized businesses. The implications for productivity growth and economic indicators such as GDP and GDI are noteworthy, suggesting a need for careful monitoring of labor market trends moving forward [36][40].

Employment Data Overview - In August, the U.S. added only 22,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000 and down from 79,000 in July, marking a 10-month low[2][4] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%, aligning with expectations and above the one-year average of 4.1%[2][17] - Year-on-year wage growth for August was recorded at 3.7%[2][22] Sector Performance - The education and healthcare sector added 46,000 jobs, but this was a decrease of 31,000 from the previous month, indicating a cooling trend[7] - The leisure and hospitality sector contributed 28,000 jobs, while professional and business services saw a decline of 17,000 jobs[7] - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 12,000, and the financial sector lost 3,000 jobs, reflecting broader economic pressures[7] Economic Implications - The weak employment data raises concerns about a potential economic recession, with labor market dynamics showing signs of structural issues[4][33] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September, with an 85.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut, driven by the deteriorating job market[29][30] - The market's reaction includes a potential recovery in stock valuations, particularly in small-cap and interest-sensitive sectors[30][33] Structural Unemployment Trends - The average duration of unemployment increased to 24.5 weeks, indicating a rise in long-term unemployment[20] - The unemployment rate for Black or African American individuals reached 7.5%, the highest this year, while the Hispanic unemployment rate rose to 5.3%[18][20] - Structural mismatches in the labor market are exacerbated by immigration policies, leading to increased hiring costs and reduced recruitment willingness[18][20]

Group 1 - In August, U.S. job growth significantly slowed, with only 54,000 jobs added, below the market expectation of 68,000 and a sharp decline from the revised 104,000 in July [1][3] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with reduced job vacancies and a slowdown in wage growth, indicating a shift towards a more relaxed supply-demand relationship in the labor market [1][5] - The ADP report indicates that while overall hiring has slowed, sectors like leisure, hospitality, and construction continue to see growth [3][5] Group 2 - The manufacturing, transportation, and education sectors experienced negative job growth in August, highlighting a broader trend of hiring deceleration across both goods-producing and service sectors [5][7] - The Challenger report shows that hiring intentions have dropped to the lowest level since 2009, while layoffs have increased significantly, reflecting a cautious approach from employers [5][7] - Market analysts agree that the slight cooling of the labor market is a fact, leading to a consensus that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting [5][7] Group 3 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a critical reference for the Federal Reserve's decision, with expectations of a 75,000 increase in non-farm jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate [7] - Following the ADP data release, U.S. stock futures showed minimal volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down approximately 0.25%, and the dollar index remaining stable around 98.25 [7]

Group 1 - The upcoming employment report is expected to show the weakest job growth in the U.S. since the pandemic, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [1][5] - Economists predict a non-farm payroll increase of only 75,000 jobs in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of job growth below 100,000 [1][4] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Recent months have seen a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth due to companies facing demand concerns, rising costs, and economic uncertainty stemming from trade policies [2][3] - The labor market is described as being in a "frozen" state, with businesses pausing hiring decisions until the economic situation becomes clearer [3] - Job growth in August is expected to be concentrated in a few sectors, particularly healthcare, leisure, and hospitality [3] Group 3 - The July employment report indicated a downward revision of job growth, altering perceptions of the labor market among economists and policymakers [4] - There are concerns about the integrity of U.S. employment data following significant revisions, which may suggest a more prolonged weakness in the labor market [4] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is under increasing pressure to act as labor market conditions weaken, with Chairman Powell expressing openness to interest rate cuts [5][6] - Other indicators, such as a drop in job vacancies and an increase in unemployment claims, further complicate the outlook for the labor market [5] - Market expectations are leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, although future actions remain uncertain [5] Group 5 - The dual mandate of achieving full employment and stable prices is creating a challenging environment for policymakers, with potential disagreements among Federal Open Market Committee members [6] - The labor market is expected to be a key factor in interest rate decisions in the coming months, with a potential for rapid changes [6]

Core Insights - The U.S. private sector job growth in August fell short of expectations, with an increase of 54,000 jobs compared to the anticipated 65,000 [1][4] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with various factors contributing to a slowdown in hiring, including labor shortages and consumer concerns [3][5] Employment Data - The ADP report indicated a revision in previous job growth figures, with July's increase adjusted from 104,000 to 106,000 [1] - Job losses were particularly noted in the trade, transportation, and utilities sectors, which saw a net loss of 17,000 jobs, and the education and health services sector, which lost 12,000 jobs [3] - Conversely, the leisure and hospitality sector added 50,000 jobs in August, partially offsetting the losses in other sectors [3] Wage Growth - Wage growth remained stable in August, with overall wages for employed individuals increasing by 4.4% year-over-year, while those who changed jobs saw a 7.1% increase [4] Unemployment Claims - Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week, exceeding market expectations [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The labor market concerns have led to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with market expectations for a rate cut in September rising to 97.4% [8][9] - The upcoming official employment report is anticipated to provide further insights into the labor market situation [6][7]