Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Rebound [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Rebound [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Composite 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Uptrend [4] - CSI 1000: Uptrend [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level Oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: High - level Oscillation [6] - Palm Oil: High - level Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed Oil: High - level Oscillation [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - No. 2 Soybeans: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - No. 1 Soybeans: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - Live Pigs: Rebound [8] - Rubber: Rebound [10] - PX: Wait - and - See [10] - PTA: Try Shorting at Highs [10] - MEG: Try Shorting at Highs [10] - PR: Wait - and - See [10] - PF: Wait - and - See [10] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a pattern of gradually increasing supply, relatively low demand, and an entry into the inventory accumulation stage. In the short term, due to emotional disturbances, it's recommended to exit previous short positions and wait and see. For coking coal and coke, with potential supply increases and uncertain demand, attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and supply. The steel products market has a complex supply - demand situation, with short - term rebounds affected by policies and seasonal factors. The glass market lacks substantial positive factors, and its demand is difficult to recover significantly. The financial market is affected by factors such as policy support for infrastructure projects, economic data, and interest rate policies, with different trends for various stock indices and bonds. The precious metals market, especially gold, is influenced by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, maintaining a high - level oscillation. The light industry and agricultural products markets have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends, such as the pulp market being in a situation of weak supply and demand, the live pig market expected to rise, and the rubber market having a wide - range oscillation [2][4][6][8][10]. Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Recently, the iron ore futures price has risen due to emotional factors. Although the global shipping volume and arrival volume have both declined this period, they are still at relatively high levels in recent years. There is an expectation of increased shipping volume later, and the arrival pressure may increase. During the industrial off - season, the output of five major steel products has increased, and the hot metal output is strong. The port inventory is still decreasing. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. It's recommended to exit previous short positions and wait and see [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by supply - side reform news and Tangshan production restrictions, the prices of black products have risen, and raw materials have followed. There are rumors of some coke enterprises and coal mines resuming production, and the supply is expected to increase. The steel mills are suppressing coke prices, the profit of coke enterprises has shrunk, and the inventory pressure has increased. Attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and supply [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Due to rumors of production reduction policies in Tangshan and supply - side reform news, the futures price has rebounded. In the off - season, the building materials demand has slightly increased, the output of five major steel products has continued to rise, and the total steel inventory is flat. However, the total demand is difficult to show an inverse - seasonal performance [2]. - **Glass**: There is no substantial positive factor in the glass fundamentals. The speculative sentiment in the Shahe area has been reignited. To achieve seasonal inventory reduction, the daily melting volume needs to be reduced below 154,000 tons. With the arrival of the rainy season, the demand is expected to weaken, and the total inventory is at a relatively high level in the past two years. In the long - term, the glass demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.62%, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose by 0.07%, the CSI 500 index rose by 0.50%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 0.53%. Funds flowed into the electronic components and pharmaceutical sectors and out of the coal and energy equipment sectors. With policy support for infrastructure projects and the issuance of special bonds, infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate. It's recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, and there was a large - scale net withdrawal of funds on that day. The market interest rate was consolidating, and the bond prices rebounded slightly. It's recommended to hold long positions in bonds lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: In the context of high - interest rates and globalization restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting. Central bank purchases are the key factor, and gold's various attributes are affected by different factors such as debt problems, interest rates, and geopolitical risks. Gold is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost price has decreased, and the support for pulp prices has weakened. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand is in the off - season. The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume of logs at ports has increased, and the futures first - delivery has boosted market activity. The supply pressure is expected to increase with the increase in arrival volume, but the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of the first - delivery on prices [6]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia has increased for three consecutive months. With the reduction of export tariffs, the export momentum is expected to continue. The demand for soybean oil and its upstream raw materials is expected to increase. However, due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand, the prices of three major oils are expected to oscillate at a high level [6]. - **Meal Products**: The soybean planting area in the US has decreased slightly, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has improved. With the high - yield of South American soybeans and large - scale imports in China, the soybean meal market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply side shows strong price - holding sentiment in the northern region, and the pig price is expected to continue rising. In the southern region, the supply is expected to be tight in July. The average trading weight of live pigs has decreased, and the slaughter enterprise's purchase strategy has changed. The pig price is expected to continue rising [8]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - **Rubber**: On the supply side, the raw material supply is tight due to rainfall in major rubber - producing areas. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of the tire industry has a structural rise. The inventory situation is complex, and the rubber price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX prices follow oil prices, with a short - term tight supply - demand pattern. PTA's supply - demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term, and its price follows cost fluctuations. MEG's supply - demand is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. PR and PF markets have their own supply - demand and price characteristics, with different trading outlooks [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Sell on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: Low-level oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Low-level oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward movement [2] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: Stronger performance [3] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [5] - Logs: Oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [5] - Palm oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [5] - Live pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Rebound [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the supply, demand, and inventory of various commodities and financial products, and provides corresponding investment ratings and trading strategies [2][3][5][7][9] - It also takes into account geopolitical factors, economic data, and policy changes to assess market trends and risks [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased, but remained at a high level. Steel production increased, and iron ore port inventories continued to decline. However, if iron water production falls below 2.4 million tons, iron ore prices may decline [2] - Coking coal and coke: Environmental inspections led to supply contraction, but demand weakened due to falling iron water production and coking enterprise production cuts. Coke prices faced downward pressure [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Entering the off-season, demand weakened, and the supply-demand structure continued to deteriorate. Prices were likely to fall [2] - Glass: There was no substantial positive news, and prices were in a low-level oscillation. Attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Market sentiment improved, and it was recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][3][4] - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates were stable, and it was recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [3] - Precious metals: Gold prices were expected to oscillate at a high level, and silver was expected to perform strongly. Attention should be paid to interest rate policies and geopolitical risks [3] Light Industry - Pulp: Cost support weakened, and demand entered the off-season. Prices were expected to oscillate weakly [5] - Logs: Demand decreased, but the cost side's negative impact might weaken. Prices were expected to oscillate [5] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply was abundant, and it was in the off-season for demand. However, the sector was boosted by international oil prices and US biofuel policies. It was expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [5] - Meals: The market was affected by weather and supply. Prices were expected to rebound, but the rebound space was restricted [5] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply pressure might increase, and demand was weak. However, low prices stimulated purchasing and rising feed costs provided support. Prices were expected to rebound [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply was tight due to rainfall, and demand showed a structural recovery. Inventories were decreasing. Prices were expected to rebound [9] Polyester - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: The market was affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand. It was recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Both US biofuel policies and geopolitical risks are favorable [2][4] - Soybean oil: The short - term regression of the soybean - palm oil price spread is blocked [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures fluctuated [2][11] - Soybean: The announcement of the soybean reserve auction in Heilongjiang Province led to an adjustment and fluctuation in the futures market [2][11] - Corn: The market is oscillating with a slight upward trend [2][14] - Sugar: The market has started to rebound [2][20] - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2][24] - Eggs: The culling of laying hens is gradually accelerating [2][30] - Pigs: It is still necessary to wait for the confirmation of the spot market [2][31] - Peanuts: There is support at the lower price level [2][37] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental Data** - Palm oil: The closing price of the main contract during the day session increased by 3.64%, and 0.05% during the night session. Trading volume was 1,374,614 lots, an increase of 449,020 lots, and open interest was 485,717 lots, an increase of 72,144 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,790 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton [4] - Soybean oil: The closing price of the main contract during the day session increased by 2.23%, and decreased by 0.10% during the night session. Trading volume was 697,940 lots, an increase of 205,708 lots, and open interest was 555,830 lots, an increase of 6,543 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,230 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News** - From June 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4%, with a 3.85% decrease in yield per unit and a 0.03% decrease in oil extraction rate. Exports increased by 17.77% (AmSpec) or 14.3% (SGS) compared to the same period last month. Starting from July 1, the Malaysian oleochemical industry may face increased input costs due to a 5% sales tax on palm kernel oil [5][7] - As of June 15, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The planting rate was 93%, lower than the expected 95%. The emergence rate was 84% [7] - As of June 12, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 215,803 tons, in line with expectations. The NOPA reported that in May 2025, US member units crushed 1.92829 billion bushels of soybeans, a 1.4% increase from April and a 5% increase from May 2024. The daily average soybean crushing volume in May decreased to 6.22 million bushels, and the soybean oil inventory at the end of May was 1.373 billion pounds, a 10.1% decrease from the end of April [8][9] - **Trend Intensity** - Palm oil: 1; Soybean oil: 1 [10] 3.2 Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data** - Soybean: The closing price of DCE soybean 2509 during the day session was 4,242 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan (+0.57%), and 4,225 yuan/ton during the night session, down 21 yuan (-0.49%) [11] - Soybean meal: The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 during the day session was 3,045 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan (-0.10%), and 3,042 yuan/ton during the night session, up 3 yuan (+0.10%) [11] - **Macro and Industry News** - On June 16, CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher. The strong demand outlook for soybean oil provided support, but the good weather in the US soybean - growing area limited the upward momentum. The USDA's crop report showed that as of June 15, the US soybean planting rate was 93%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 66% [11][13] - On June 19, 2025, there will be a bidding and sales fair for 60,790.15 tons of provincial - reserve soybeans in Heilongjiang [13] - **Trend Intensity** - Soybean meal: 0; Soybean: - 1 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract during the day session on the report day) [13] 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Data** - Spot prices: The purchase price in Northeast China was unchanged, the price at Jinzhou for shipment was 2,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in North China was unchanged, and the price in Guangdong Shekou was 2,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - Futures: The closing price of C2507 during the day session was 2,359 yuan/ton, down 0.46%, and 2,358 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.04%. The closing price of C2509 during the day session was 2,391 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, and 2,392 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.04% [15] - **Macro and Industry News** - The northern corn collection price at ports increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton, the price in Guangdong Shekou remained unchanged, the price in Northeast China's enterprises increased steadily, and the price in North China increased [16] - **Trend Intensity** - Corn: 0 [17] 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Data** - The raw sugar price was 17.02 cents/pound, up 0.48 cents. The mainstream spot price was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures main - contract price was 5,667 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [20] - **Macro and Industry News** - High - frequency information: Crude oil prices soared; the MIX in Brazil's central - southern region increased significantly year - on - year; the USDA predicted a 4.73% increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season; Brazil's sugar exports in May decreased by 20% year - on - year; as of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to April decreased significantly [20] - Domestic market: The CAOC predicted that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season would be 11.15 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production would be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of the end of May, the national sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.16 million tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 8.11 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of April, China's sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 1.74 million tons [21] - International market: The ISO predicted a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season. As of June 1, Brazil's central - southern region's cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 6.95 million tons, a decrease of 920,000 tons year - on - year [22] - **Trend Intensity** - Sugar: 1 [23] 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: The closing price of CF2509 during the day session was 13,530 yuan/ton, up 0.26%, and 13,490 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.30%. The closing price of CY2509 during the day session was 19,765 yuan/ton, up 0.25%, and 19,735 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.15% [24] - Spot: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,766 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [24] - **Macro and Industry News** - Domestic cotton spot: The trading volume of cotton spot remained largely unchanged, mostly sluggish, and the sales basis was firm. The pre - sale of new cotton in Xinjiang for the 2025/26 season has begun [25] - Domestic cotton textile enterprises: The trading volume in the pure - cotton yarn market remained sluggish, with insufficient orders. The demand for pure - cotton grey cloth was weak, and fabric mills continued to reduce production [25] - US cotton: ICE cotton futures continued to rise slightly. As of June 15, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 48%, and the planting progress was 85% [25] - **Trend Intensity** - Cotton: 0 [27] 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: The closing price of egg 2507 was 2,894 yuan/500 kg, up 2.48%, and the trading volume decreased by 15,619 lots, and open interest decreased by 14,644 lots. The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,669 yuan/500 kg, up 0.47%, and the trading volume decreased by 6,274 lots, and open interest increased by 1 lot [29] - Spot: The price in Liaoning was 2.80 yuan/jin, in Hebei was 2.56 yuan/jin, in Shanxi was 2.70 yuan/jin, and in Hubei was 2.89 yuan/jin [29] - **Trend Intensity** - Eggs: 0 [29] 3.7 Pigs - **Fundamental Data** - Spot: The price in Henan was 14,280 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Sichuan was 14,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Guangdong was 15,640 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan [33] - Futures: The price of live - hog 2507 was 13,295 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; live - hog 2509 was 13,790 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; live - hog 2511 was 13,410 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [33] - **Market Logic** - The futures market has entered the expected - trading stage. The continuous reserve - purchase expectation has driven the formation of a policy - bottom sentiment, and the long - position trading of the expectation of a price bottoming - out and rising in July has driven the strong operation of the 09 contract. However, the impact of the policy on inventory reduction is more complex. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig inventory cycle has production characteristics, and the market structure maintains the expectation of a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [35] - **Trend Intensity** - Pigs: 0 [34] 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Data** - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 general - quality peanuts was 9,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Henan Baisha general - quality peanuts was 9,460 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [38] - Futures: The closing price of PK510 was 8,296 yuan/ton, up 1.02%, and the trading volume was 62,837 lots, an increase of 14,797 lots, and open interest was 122,573 lots, a decrease of 5,104 lots. The closing price of PK511 was 8,098 yuan/ton, up 1.02%, and the trading volume was 17,55 lots, an increase of 5,461 lots, and open interest was 60,225 lots, a decrease of 8 lots [38] - **Spot Market Focus** - In most regions, the raw material supply at the grass - roots level is limited, and most transactions are based on inventory. The inquiry and purchase volume has improved compared to a few days ago. Most regions' prices are stable, and some regions' prices are slightly stronger [39] - **Trend Intensity** - Peanuts: 0 [40]

1. Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US biodiesel policy is favorable, driving up the prices of palm oil and soybean oil, and the international油脂 market will see a systematic upward trend due to reduced export supplies. At the same time, domestic oils may also show an upward trend, but with a smaller increase [5][8][9]. - The prices of soybean meal and soybean are expected to fluctuate strongly next week. The US biodiesel policy is expected to boost the price of US soybeans, which will support the price of soybean meal. For domestic soybeans, the market is waiting for the release of provincial - stored soybeans in Heilongjiang [23]. - The corn market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The price of CBOT corn is rising, the wheat price has stabilized, and the inventory of corn starch has decreased. The tight supply - demand pattern of corn remains unchanged [44][45][47]. - The sugar market will be in low - level consolidation. Internationally, the downward trend has ended, and the market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. Domestically, the market is expected to have continuous production increases and a decrease in production costs, and the low - level consolidation pattern will continue [72][100]. - The cotton price is supported by the rapid decline of commercial inventory. ICE cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, and domestic cotton futures are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the weather in Xinjiang and external market influences [102][119]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: Palm oil 09 contract rose 0.37% last week, and soybean oil 09 contract rose 0.62%. The negative impact of Malaysia's over - expected production increase from April to May on palm oil has been gradually digested, and the soybean market lacked obvious drivers [4]. - **This Week's Situation**: In the second quarter, the inventory in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to return to the normal level of 5.5 million tons. However, the US biodiesel policy has changed the situation. The EPA has significantly increased the biomass diesel RVO in 2026, which is expected to lead to a reduction of about 1.2 million tons of US soybean oil supply in the international market. The prices of palm oil, soybean oil, the US soybean oil - meal ratio, and US soybeans are expected to rise further [5][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week's Situation**: US soybean futures prices first fell and then rose, with a weekly increase of 0.99% for the main 07 contract. Domestic soybean meal futures prices were "strongly fluctuating with a pattern of rising first and then falling", and soybean futures prices rose. The main m2509 contract of soybean meal rose 1.03% last week, and the main a2509 contract of soybean rose 3.39% [18][19]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Next week, the prices of soybean meal and soybean are expected to fluctuate strongly. The US biodiesel policy is expected to boost the price of US soybeans, which will support the price of soybean meal. For domestic soybeans, the market is waiting for the release of provincial - stored soybeans in Heilongjiang [23]. Corn - **Last Week's Market Review**: In the spot market, the average national corn price rose to 2405.69 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the main contract (C2507) rose, with a closing price of 2378 yuan/ton [42][43]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices are rising, wheat prices have stabilized, and the inventory of corn starch has decreased. The tight supply - demand pattern of corn remains unchanged, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [44][45][47]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: Internationally, the price of the active New York raw sugar contract was 16.54 cents/pound, with a 0.18% increase. Domestically, the spot price of Guangxi sugar groups was 6060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week [70][71]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Internationally, the downward trend has ended, and the market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. Domestically, the market is expected to have continuous production increases and a decrease in production costs, and the low - level consolidation pattern will continue [72][100]. Cotton - **Last Week's Situation**: ICE cotton fluctuated, with the main contract reaching a new low in one and a half months in the first half of the week and then rebounding after the USDA released the monthly supply - demand report. Domestically, the operating conditions of textile enterprises have not improved, and cotton futures are mainly affected by the overall financial market sentiment [102]. - **Outlook**: ICE cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, and domestic cotton futures are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the weather in Xinjiang and external market influences [119].