1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Next week (March 2 - March 6, 2026), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. For soybean meal, the cost - side US soybean futures prices and Brazilian soybean premium quotes are stable with a slight upward trend. For soybeans, attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations such as policy sentiment (Two Sessions) and rumors of state reserve sales. Additionally, geopolitical events in the Middle East during the weekend may affect market sentiment [8]. 3. Summary by Related Contents US Soybean Market - Last week (February 23 - February 27, 2026), US soybean futures prices rose slightly. Bullish factors included the easing of US tariff policies and the strong performance of US soybean oil. Bearish factors were the uncertainty of US tariff policies and concerns about China's demand for US soybeans. As of February 27, the weekly increase of the main US soybean May contract was 1.41%, and that of the main US soybean meal May contract was 1.85% [2]. - In the week of February 19, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans decreased month - on - month. The export shipments of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were about 810,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37% and a year - on - year decrease of about 16%. The cumulative export shipments were about 25.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 32%. The weekly net sales in the current season (2025/26) were about 410,000 tons, and in the next season (2026/27) were 0 tons, with a total of about 410,000 tons (compared to about 866,000 tons in the previous week). The weekly net sales to China in the current crop year were about 75,000 tons, and the cumulative sales were about 10.66 million tons [3]. Brazilian Soybean Market - As of the week of February 28, 2026, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for May 2026 delivery decreased slightly week - on - week, while the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [3]. - As of the week of February 19, 2026, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 30%, compared to 39% in the same period last year, the lowest level since the 2020/21 season. Reasons included late sowing, long crop growth cycles, and rainfall during the harvest period. In Rio Grande do Sul, rainfall was uneven, and the soybean harvest still faced the risk of poor yields [3]. - According to the February 28 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (March 1 - March 15, 2026), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil was uneven and the temperature was high. The precipitation in Mato Grosso was normal, while that in other main producing areas was low. In Argentina, the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas was slightly low, and the temperature was slightly high or normal except for a low - temperature period around March 6. The current weather impact on South American production areas was slightly bullish [5]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Last week (February 24 - February 27, 2026), domestic soybean meal futures prices "first fell and then rose, with the center of gravity moving up". The cost - side support came from the stable and slightly upward trend of US soybeans and Brazilian premiums, while the uncertainty of Sino - US trade events caused disturbances. The weekly increase of the main soybean meal May contract was 1.18% [3]. - The domestic soybean meal spot price rose slightly, and the spot trading, crushing, etc. rebounded slightly after the Spring Festival holiday. The average daily trading volume of soybean meal of mainstream oil mills was about 44,000 tons, an increase from the pre - holiday week. The average daily pickup volume of main oil mills decreased to about 107,000 tons from the previous week. The average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased to about 275 yuan/ton from the previous week. The inventory of soybean meal of mainstream oil mills increased slightly week - on - week and significantly year - on - year, reaching about 770,000 tons. The weekly soybean crushing volume of 125 oil mills increased to about 590,000 tons, and the operating rate increased to about 16%. It is expected to reach about 1.89 million tons next week, with an operating rate of 52% [6]. Domestic Soybean Market - Last week (February 24 - February 27, 2026), domestic soybean futures prices "first fell and then rose, with the center of gravity moving up". The spot price of soybeans in the Northeast increased in compensation, but the trading volume was small. The futures price remained strong due to the overall sentiment of the soybean market and the absence of bearish factors. The weekly increase of the main soybean May contract was 0.73% [3]. - The domestic soybean spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some Northeast regions increased by 160 yuan/ton, that in the Inner Pass remained the same as the previous week, and the selling price in the sales areas increased by 40 yuan/ton. The spot price in the Northeast increased in compensation, but the trading volume was small. Farmers were expected to sell their grain after the Lantern Festival. The sales areas adjusted prices following the production areas, but the trading volume was limited. The resumption time of soybean product factories was inconsistent, and the raw material inventory purchased before the Spring Festival had not been consumed. The centralized start of schools in March may boost the demand for soybean products [7].

商品回暖， 油脂跟随走强 油脂周报 2026/01/24 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：据SPPOMA数据显示，2026年1月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比下滑16.06%，鲜果串单产下滑16.49%出油率上升0.08%。据 MYSTEEL公布的样本数据显示，截止1月16日当周，国内三大油脂库存198万吨，环比前一周减少3万吨。美国政府计划在3月初敲定2026年生 物燃料掺混配额。印尼能源部副部长表示印尼已取消今年将生物柴油强制掺混比例提升至50%的计划（即B50计划)，维持现行B40计划。据 USDA数据显示，1月预估美国豆油消费13.2百万吨，环比12月预估减少0.249百万吨，较上年度增加1百万吨。据印度溶剂萃取商协会数据显 示，印度12月总的植物油进口为138万吨，环比11月增加20万吨。据MPOB公布的数 ...

Group 1 - The palm oil market experienced significant fluctuations this week due to the release of monthly supply and demand reports from MPOB and USDA, alongside news regarding Indonesia's export levy and B50, as well as developments in the US biodiesel sector [3][18] - The MPOB report indicated a 5.46% month-on-month decrease in Malaysian palm oil production for December, aligning with MPOA estimates, while domestic consumption unexpectedly dropped to 33 million tons, offset by a surge in exports [19][21] - The market anticipates that Malaysian palm oil inventory may have peaked in December, with expectations of a drawdown in the first quarter of this year, which could stabilize palm oil prices [21][23] Group 2 - Indonesia's export levy on palm oil products will increase by 2.5% starting March 1, 2026, while maintaining a 40% blending plan, which has led to further corrections in palm oil prices [21][23] - The US biodiesel sector is seeing increased optimism, with plans to finalize the 2026 biodiesel blending mandate, potentially setting the obligation between 5.2 to 5.6 billion gallons, which has positively impacted soybean oil prices [25][27] - The anticipated increase in US biodiesel blending demand is expected to significantly raise oilseed input requirements, potentially leading to a rise in soybean oil prices to the range of 60-65 cents [27][29]

Report Information - Report Date: December 18, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The oil and fat market declined significantly this week due to the drop in external crude oil, CBOT soybeans, and Malaysian palm oil. The US EPA's final decision on biofuel blending in 2026 is expected to be completed in the first quarter of next year. Regular rainfall in Brazil's agricultural areas is beneficial for soybean growth. With rising US inventories and expected high soybean yields in Brazil, soybean prices will face pressure. Malaysia's palm oil production slowed in December, but poor export prospects suggest an increase in inventory, which is negative for futures prices. Rapeseed oil is expected to have a lower valuation due to a record global rapeseed harvest and reduced Canadian exports affected by Chinese tariffs, and is commonly used as a short position in arbitrage. The recent sharp decline in the domestic market has led to low market confidence, with the market continuing to bottom out [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: In Dongguan, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil is 05 + 780, and the 12 - 2 package of third - grade rapeseed oil from Dongguan COFCO is 05 + 620. In the East China market, the basis price of first - grade soybean oil is y2605 + 510 from December to January, y2605 + 480 from January to March, and y2605 + 220 from July to September. Palm oil prices from Dongguan traders were stable with some increases. For example, 18 - degree palm oil from Guangzhou Yihai is 01 + 110, and from Dongguan COFCO is 01 + 80 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The oil and fat market was affected by external factors and showed a significant decline. The market is expected to continue the bottom - building process [8]. 2. Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From December 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 2.55% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.08%. Exports from December 1 - 15 were 613,172 tons, a 15.9% decrease from the same period in November. Exports to China were 85,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous month [9]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of December 12, Brazil's soybean exports in December were significantly higher than last year. From December 1 - 12, exports were 1.65 million tons, and the average daily export volume was 165,022 tons, a 72.7% year - on - year increase. The average export price in December was $455.2 per ton, a 6.0% year - on - year increase [9][10]. 3. Data Overview - **Brazilian Soybean Planting**: As of December 12, 2025, the planting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop was 94.1%, higher than the previous week's 90.3% and the five - year average of 90.6%, but lower than last year's 96.8% [16]. - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: As of December 16, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 8.1 million tons, compared with 7.6 million tons last year and a five - year average of 7.4 million tons. The cumulative arrivals this month were 4.9 million tons. The expected arrivals in December 2025 were 9.5 million tons, a 5.32% decrease from the previous month's forecast and a 17.81% increase from the same period last year [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Rebound [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Rebound [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Composite 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Uptrend [4] - CSI 1000: Uptrend [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level Oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: High - level Oscillation [6] - Palm Oil: High - level Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed Oil: High - level Oscillation [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - No. 2 Soybeans: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - No. 1 Soybeans: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - Live Pigs: Rebound [8] - Rubber: Rebound [10] - PX: Wait - and - See [10] - PTA: Try Shorting at Highs [10] - MEG: Try Shorting at Highs [10] - PR: Wait - and - See [10] - PF: Wait - and - See [10] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a pattern of gradually increasing supply, relatively low demand, and an entry into the inventory accumulation stage. In the short term, due to emotional disturbances, it's recommended to exit previous short positions and wait and see. For coking coal and coke, with potential supply increases and uncertain demand, attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and supply. The steel products market has a complex supply - demand situation, with short - term rebounds affected by policies and seasonal factors. The glass market lacks substantial positive factors, and its demand is difficult to recover significantly. The financial market is affected by factors such as policy support for infrastructure projects, economic data, and interest rate policies, with different trends for various stock indices and bonds. The precious metals market, especially gold, is influenced by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, maintaining a high - level oscillation. The light industry and agricultural products markets have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends, such as the pulp market being in a situation of weak supply and demand, the live pig market expected to rise, and the rubber market having a wide - range oscillation [2][4][6][8][10]. Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Recently, the iron ore futures price has risen due to emotional factors. Although the global shipping volume and arrival volume have both declined this period, they are still at relatively high levels in recent years. There is an expectation of increased shipping volume later, and the arrival pressure may increase. During the industrial off - season, the output of five major steel products has increased, and the hot metal output is strong. The port inventory is still decreasing. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. It's recommended to exit previous short positions and wait and see [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by supply - side reform news and Tangshan production restrictions, the prices of black products have risen, and raw materials have followed. There are rumors of some coke enterprises and coal mines resuming production, and the supply is expected to increase. The steel mills are suppressing coke prices, the profit of coke enterprises has shrunk, and the inventory pressure has increased. Attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and supply [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Due to rumors of production reduction policies in Tangshan and supply - side reform news, the futures price has rebounded. In the off - season, the building materials demand has slightly increased, the output of five major steel products has continued to rise, and the total steel inventory is flat. However, the total demand is difficult to show an inverse - seasonal performance [2]. - **Glass**: There is no substantial positive factor in the glass fundamentals. The speculative sentiment in the Shahe area has been reignited. To achieve seasonal inventory reduction, the daily melting volume needs to be reduced below 154,000 tons. With the arrival of the rainy season, the demand is expected to weaken, and the total inventory is at a relatively high level in the past two years. In the long - term, the glass demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.62%, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose by 0.07%, the CSI 500 index rose by 0.50%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 0.53%. Funds flowed into the electronic components and pharmaceutical sectors and out of the coal and energy equipment sectors. With policy support for infrastructure projects and the issuance of special bonds, infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate. It's recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, and there was a large - scale net withdrawal of funds on that day. The market interest rate was consolidating, and the bond prices rebounded slightly. It's recommended to hold long positions in bonds lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: In the context of high - interest rates and globalization restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting. Central bank purchases are the key factor, and gold's various attributes are affected by different factors such as debt problems, interest rates, and geopolitical risks. Gold is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost price has decreased, and the support for pulp prices has weakened. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand is in the off - season. The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume of logs at ports has increased, and the futures first - delivery has boosted market activity. The supply pressure is expected to increase with the increase in arrival volume, but the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of the first - delivery on prices [6]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia has increased for three consecutive months. With the reduction of export tariffs, the export momentum is expected to continue. The demand for soybean oil and its upstream raw materials is expected to increase. However, due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand, the prices of three major oils are expected to oscillate at a high level [6]. - **Meal Products**: The soybean planting area in the US has decreased slightly, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has improved. With the high - yield of South American soybeans and large - scale imports in China, the soybean meal market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply side shows strong price - holding sentiment in the northern region, and the pig price is expected to continue rising. In the southern region, the supply is expected to be tight in July. The average trading weight of live pigs has decreased, and the slaughter enterprise's purchase strategy has changed. The pig price is expected to continue rising [8]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - **Rubber**: On the supply side, the raw material supply is tight due to rainfall in major rubber - producing areas. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of the tire industry has a structural rise. The inventory situation is complex, and the rubber price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX prices follow oil prices, with a short - term tight supply - demand pattern. PTA's supply - demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term, and its price follows cost fluctuations. MEG's supply - demand is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. PR and PF markets have their own supply - demand and price characteristics, with different trading outlooks [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Sell on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: Low-level oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Low-level oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward movement [2] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: Stronger performance [3] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [5] - Logs: Oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [5] - Palm oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [5] - Live pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Rebound [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the supply, demand, and inventory of various commodities and financial products, and provides corresponding investment ratings and trading strategies [2][3][5][7][9] - It also takes into account geopolitical factors, economic data, and policy changes to assess market trends and risks [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased, but remained at a high level. Steel production increased, and iron ore port inventories continued to decline. However, if iron water production falls below 2.4 million tons, iron ore prices may decline [2] - Coking coal and coke: Environmental inspections led to supply contraction, but demand weakened due to falling iron water production and coking enterprise production cuts. Coke prices faced downward pressure [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Entering the off-season, demand weakened, and the supply-demand structure continued to deteriorate. Prices were likely to fall [2] - Glass: There was no substantial positive news, and prices were in a low-level oscillation. Attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Market sentiment improved, and it was recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][3][4] - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates were stable, and it was recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [3] - Precious metals: Gold prices were expected to oscillate at a high level, and silver was expected to perform strongly. Attention should be paid to interest rate policies and geopolitical risks [3] Light Industry - Pulp: Cost support weakened, and demand entered the off-season. Prices were expected to oscillate weakly [5] - Logs: Demand decreased, but the cost side's negative impact might weaken. Prices were expected to oscillate [5] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply was abundant, and it was in the off-season for demand. However, the sector was boosted by international oil prices and US biofuel policies. It was expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [5] - Meals: The market was affected by weather and supply. Prices were expected to rebound, but the rebound space was restricted [5] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply pressure might increase, and demand was weak. However, low prices stimulated purchasing and rising feed costs provided support. Prices were expected to rebound [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply was tight due to rainfall, and demand showed a structural recovery. Inventories were decreasing. Prices were expected to rebound [9] Polyester - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: The market was affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand. It was recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Both US biofuel policies and geopolitical risks are favorable [2][4] - Soybean oil: The short - term regression of the soybean - palm oil price spread is blocked [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures fluctuated [2][11] - Soybean: The announcement of the soybean reserve auction in Heilongjiang Province led to an adjustment and fluctuation in the futures market [2][11] - Corn: The market is oscillating with a slight upward trend [2][14] - Sugar: The market has started to rebound [2][20] - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2][24] - Eggs: The culling of laying hens is gradually accelerating [2][30] - Pigs: It is still necessary to wait for the confirmation of the spot market [2][31] - Peanuts: There is support at the lower price level [2][37] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental Data** - Palm oil: The closing price of the main contract during the day session increased by 3.64%, and 0.05% during the night session. Trading volume was 1,374,614 lots, an increase of 449,020 lots, and open interest was 485,717 lots, an increase of 72,144 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,790 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton [4] - Soybean oil: The closing price of the main contract during the day session increased by 2.23%, and decreased by 0.10% during the night session. Trading volume was 697,940 lots, an increase of 205,708 lots, and open interest was 555,830 lots, an increase of 6,543 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,230 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News** - From June 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4%, with a 3.85% decrease in yield per unit and a 0.03% decrease in oil extraction rate. Exports increased by 17.77% (AmSpec) or 14.3% (SGS) compared to the same period last month. Starting from July 1, the Malaysian oleochemical industry may face increased input costs due to a 5% sales tax on palm kernel oil [5][7] - As of June 15, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The planting rate was 93%, lower than the expected 95%. The emergence rate was 84% [7] - As of June 12, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 215,803 tons, in line with expectations. The NOPA reported that in May 2025, US member units crushed 1.92829 billion bushels of soybeans, a 1.4% increase from April and a 5% increase from May 2024. The daily average soybean crushing volume in May decreased to 6.22 million bushels, and the soybean oil inventory at the end of May was 1.373 billion pounds, a 10.1% decrease from the end of April [8][9] - **Trend Intensity** - Palm oil: 1; Soybean oil: 1 [10] 3.2 Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data** - Soybean: The closing price of DCE soybean 2509 during the day session was 4,242 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan (+0.57%), and 4,225 yuan/ton during the night session, down 21 yuan (-0.49%) [11] - Soybean meal: The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 during the day session was 3,045 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan (-0.10%), and 3,042 yuan/ton during the night session, up 3 yuan (+0.10%) [11] - **Macro and Industry News** - On June 16, CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher. The strong demand outlook for soybean oil provided support, but the good weather in the US soybean - growing area limited the upward momentum. The USDA's crop report showed that as of June 15, the US soybean planting rate was 93%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 66% [11][13] - On June 19, 2025, there will be a bidding and sales fair for 60,790.15 tons of provincial - reserve soybeans in Heilongjiang [13] - **Trend Intensity** - Soybean meal: 0; Soybean: - 1 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract during the day session on the report day) [13] 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Data** - Spot prices: The purchase price in Northeast China was unchanged, the price at Jinzhou for shipment was 2,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in North China was unchanged, and the price in Guangdong Shekou was 2,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - Futures: The closing price of C2507 during the day session was 2,359 yuan/ton, down 0.46%, and 2,358 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.04%. The closing price of C2509 during the day session was 2,391 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, and 2,392 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.04% [15] - **Macro and Industry News** - The northern corn collection price at ports increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton, the price in Guangdong Shekou remained unchanged, the price in Northeast China's enterprises increased steadily, and the price in North China increased [16] - **Trend Intensity** - Corn: 0 [17] 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Data** - The raw sugar price was 17.02 cents/pound, up 0.48 cents. The mainstream spot price was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures main - contract price was 5,667 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [20] - **Macro and Industry News** - High - frequency information: Crude oil prices soared; the MIX in Brazil's central - southern region increased significantly year - on - year; the USDA predicted a 4.73% increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season; Brazil's sugar exports in May decreased by 20% year - on - year; as of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to April decreased significantly [20] - Domestic market: The CAOC predicted that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season would be 11.15 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production would be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of the end of May, the national sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.16 million tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 8.11 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of April, China's sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 1.74 million tons [21] - International market: The ISO predicted a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season. As of June 1, Brazil's central - southern region's cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 6.95 million tons, a decrease of 920,000 tons year - on - year [22] - **Trend Intensity** - Sugar: 1 [23] 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: The closing price of CF2509 during the day session was 13,530 yuan/ton, up 0.26%, and 13,490 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.30%. The closing price of CY2509 during the day session was 19,765 yuan/ton, up 0.25%, and 19,735 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.15% [24] - Spot: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,766 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [24] - **Macro and Industry News** - Domestic cotton spot: The trading volume of cotton spot remained largely unchanged, mostly sluggish, and the sales basis was firm. The pre - sale of new cotton in Xinjiang for the 2025/26 season has begun [25] - Domestic cotton textile enterprises: The trading volume in the pure - cotton yarn market remained sluggish, with insufficient orders. The demand for pure - cotton grey cloth was weak, and fabric mills continued to reduce production [25] - US cotton: ICE cotton futures continued to rise slightly. As of June 15, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 48%, and the planting progress was 85% [25] - **Trend Intensity** - Cotton: 0 [27] 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: The closing price of egg 2507 was 2,894 yuan/500 kg, up 2.48%, and the trading volume decreased by 15,619 lots, and open interest decreased by 14,644 lots. The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,669 yuan/500 kg, up 0.47%, and the trading volume decreased by 6,274 lots, and open interest increased by 1 lot [29] - Spot: The price in Liaoning was 2.80 yuan/jin, in Hebei was 2.56 yuan/jin, in Shanxi was 2.70 yuan/jin, and in Hubei was 2.89 yuan/jin [29] - **Trend Intensity** - Eggs: 0 [29] 3.7 Pigs - **Fundamental Data** - Spot: The price in Henan was 14,280 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Sichuan was 14,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Guangdong was 15,640 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan [33] - Futures: The price of live - hog 2507 was 13,295 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; live - hog 2509 was 13,790 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; live - hog 2511 was 13,410 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [33] - **Market Logic** - The futures market has entered the expected - trading stage. The continuous reserve - purchase expectation has driven the formation of a policy - bottom sentiment, and the long - position trading of the expectation of a price bottoming - out and rising in July has driven the strong operation of the 09 contract. However, the impact of the policy on inventory reduction is more complex. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig inventory cycle has production characteristics, and the market structure maintains the expectation of a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [35] - **Trend Intensity** - Pigs: 0 [34] 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Data** - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 general - quality peanuts was 9,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Henan Baisha general - quality peanuts was 9,460 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [38] - Futures: The closing price of PK510 was 8,296 yuan/ton, up 1.02%, and the trading volume was 62,837 lots, an increase of 14,797 lots, and open interest was 122,573 lots, a decrease of 5,104 lots. The closing price of PK511 was 8,098 yuan/ton, up 1.02%, and the trading volume was 17,55 lots, an increase of 5,461 lots, and open interest was 60,225 lots, a decrease of 8 lots [38] - **Spot Market Focus** - In most regions, the raw material supply at the grass - roots level is limited, and most transactions are based on inventory. The inquiry and purchase volume has improved compared to a few days ago. Most regions' prices are stable, and some regions' prices are slightly stronger [39] - **Trend Intensity** - Peanuts: 0 [40]

1. Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US biodiesel policy is favorable, driving up the prices of palm oil and soybean oil, and the international油脂 market will see a systematic upward trend due to reduced export supplies. At the same time, domestic oils may also show an upward trend, but with a smaller increase [5][8][9]. - The prices of soybean meal and soybean are expected to fluctuate strongly next week. The US biodiesel policy is expected to boost the price of US soybeans, which will support the price of soybean meal. For domestic soybeans, the market is waiting for the release of provincial - stored soybeans in Heilongjiang [23]. - The corn market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The price of CBOT corn is rising, the wheat price has stabilized, and the inventory of corn starch has decreased. The tight supply - demand pattern of corn remains unchanged [44][45][47]. - The sugar market will be in low - level consolidation. Internationally, the downward trend has ended, and the market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. Domestically, the market is expected to have continuous production increases and a decrease in production costs, and the low - level consolidation pattern will continue [72][100]. - The cotton price is supported by the rapid decline of commercial inventory. ICE cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, and domestic cotton futures are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the weather in Xinjiang and external market influences [102][119]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: Palm oil 09 contract rose 0.37% last week, and soybean oil 09 contract rose 0.62%. The negative impact of Malaysia's over - expected production increase from April to May on palm oil has been gradually digested, and the soybean market lacked obvious drivers [4]. - **This Week's Situation**: In the second quarter, the inventory in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to return to the normal level of 5.5 million tons. However, the US biodiesel policy has changed the situation. The EPA has significantly increased the biomass diesel RVO in 2026, which is expected to lead to a reduction of about 1.2 million tons of US soybean oil supply in the international market. The prices of palm oil, soybean oil, the US soybean oil - meal ratio, and US soybeans are expected to rise further [5][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week's Situation**: US soybean futures prices first fell and then rose, with a weekly increase of 0.99% for the main 07 contract. Domestic soybean meal futures prices were "strongly fluctuating with a pattern of rising first and then falling", and soybean futures prices rose. The main m2509 contract of soybean meal rose 1.03% last week, and the main a2509 contract of soybean rose 3.39% [18][19]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Next week, the prices of soybean meal and soybean are expected to fluctuate strongly. The US biodiesel policy is expected to boost the price of US soybeans, which will support the price of soybean meal. For domestic soybeans, the market is waiting for the release of provincial - stored soybeans in Heilongjiang [23]. Corn - **Last Week's Market Review**: In the spot market, the average national corn price rose to 2405.69 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the main contract (C2507) rose, with a closing price of 2378 yuan/ton [42][43]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices are rising, wheat prices have stabilized, and the inventory of corn starch has decreased. The tight supply - demand pattern of corn remains unchanged, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [44][45][47]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: Internationally, the price of the active New York raw sugar contract was 16.54 cents/pound, with a 0.18% increase. Domestically, the spot price of Guangxi sugar groups was 6060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week [70][71]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Internationally, the downward trend has ended, and the market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. Domestically, the market is expected to have continuous production increases and a decrease in production costs, and the low - level consolidation pattern will continue [72][100]. Cotton - **Last Week's Situation**: ICE cotton fluctuated, with the main contract reaching a new low in one and a half months in the first half of the week and then rebounding after the USDA released the monthly supply - demand report. Domestically, the operating conditions of textile enterprises have not improved, and cotton futures are mainly affected by the overall financial market sentiment [102]. - **Outlook**: ICE cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, and domestic cotton futures are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the weather in Xinjiang and external market influences [119].