Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) declined on June 23 due to rainfall in western Canada and the weakening of US soybeans, which alleviated concerns about crop shortages. The 11 - month rapeseed contract closed 17.70 Canadian dollars lower at 725 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The good condition of US soybeans and favorable weather forecasts for the Midwest continue to constrain the US soybean market. Domestically, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil - mill operating rate has increased significantly, leading to a more relaxed supply and putting pressure on the meal market prices [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the peak season of aquaculture has arrived, increasing the feed demand. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal is good, weakening the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations adds to the potential increase in supply, dragging down the market price of rapeseed meal. The short - term market focuses on the tight inventory of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, and the growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage [2]. - For rapeseed oil, palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing season, which restricts its market price. However, increased exports boost the palm oil market. The US Environmental Protection Agency's suggestion to increase the blending requirements for biofuels in 2026 and 2027 has greatly increased the demand expectation for US soybean oil, driving up the soybean oil market price. The Middle - East situation has a significant impact on international oil prices, increasing the volatility of the oil market. Domestically, the high inventory pressure of oil mills continues to restrict the market price. Although the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations adds supply pressure, the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides support for the domestic rapeseed oil market price [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active rapeseed oil futures contract was 9572 yuan/ton, down 149 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal futures contract was 2662 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 94 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was 288 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - The position of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased by 21,225 hands to 372,654 hands, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreased by 1429 hands to 35,129 hands. The position of the main rapeseed meal contract decreased by 2498 hands to 516,622 hands, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 6616 hands to 20,885 hands [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 100, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased by 963 to 24,711. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures contract was 724.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 17.1 Canadian dollars [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9920 yuan/ton, and the average price was 9936.25 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2550 yuan/ton, and the oil - meal ratio was 3.78, up 0.05 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 199 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was - 112 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1540 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual production of rapeseed was 89.56 million tons, up 4.32 million tons, and the annual predicted production of rapeseed was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 5280.97 yuan/ton, down 136.56 yuan/ton, and the import rapeseed crushing profit was 125 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton [2]. - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, down 5 million tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 14.26%, down 4.83 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 12.2 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.01 million tons, down 0.54 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 63.05 million tons, up 2.05 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 36.83 million tons, down 0.41 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 7.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 30.8 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 2.81 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 2.87 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.37%, up 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.37%, up 0.42 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 15.87%, down 0.03 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 21.4%, unchanged [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.77%, up 0.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.77%, up 0.51 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 14%, up 0.57 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.63%, up 0.18 percentage points [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the short - term market focuses on the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed, and the aquaculture season boosts demand. However, the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations adds supply pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the international oil price and strong external oils support the price, and it may continue a relatively strong trend in the short term. But high domestic oil - mill inventory and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations add supply pressure [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9691 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2694 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 736.5 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.2 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5290 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 115 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 266 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 197 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 104 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 390919 lots, up 2081 lots; those of rapeseed meal are 520553 lots, up 3436 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil are 38797 lots, up 3682 lots; those of rapeseed meal are 24294 lots, up 6553 lots. The warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 100 pieces, unchanged; those of rapeseed meal are 25854 pieces, down 10 pieces [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9903.75 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 5415.48 yuan/ton, down 40.83 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8370 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Spreads between substitutes: The spot spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1580 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the spot spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1100 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Production: The global forecasted annual rapeseed production is 89.56 million tons, up 4.32 million tons; the annual forecasted production of rapeseed is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports and processing: The total monthly rapeseed import volume is 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 76 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan. The total weekly rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 20 million tons, down 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 19.09%, down 0.1% [2]. Industry Situation - Imports: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventories: The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 12.93 million tons, down 1.37 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 1.55 million tons, down 0.35 million tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 61 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 37.24 million tons, down 0.94 million tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 7.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 31.5 million tons, up 6.3 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.54 million tons, up 0.07 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.43 million tons, up 0.14 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4167 million yuan, down 68 million yuan [2]. Industry News - On June 18, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, following the weakness of CBOT soybean oil prices. The November rapeseed contract fell 3.40 Canadian dollars to settle at 736.40 Canadian dollars per ton, and the July rapeseed contract fell 6.00 Canadian dollars to settle at 738.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending June 15, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, the previous week's 68%, and the same period last year's 70% [2].

商 品 研 究 豆粕：生物柴油政策利多，连粕跟随美豆偏强 2025 年 06 月 16 日 豆一：豆类市场偏强，跟随补涨 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） DCE豆一2509 | 4241 +52 | （+1.24%） 4249 | （+0.73%） +31 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3041 | -5（-0.16%） 3048 | +0（+0.00%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1068.5 | +26.25（+2.52%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 291.3 -3.2 | （-1.09%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 较昨持平至+30； 2920～2970， 持平； 100/-80， 7-9月M2509-40/+0， | 现货基差M2509 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 06 月 15 日 豆粕：生柴政策利多美豆，偏强震荡 豆一：豆类市场氛围偏多，偏强震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（06.09-06.13），国内豆粕现货主要情况：1）成交：豆粕成交量周环比上升。据钢联统计，截 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 期货研究 上周（06.09-06.13），美豆期价先跌后涨，期价下跌因为美豆产区天气良好、中美贸易谈判缺少农 业细节、美豆需求担忧；期价上涨因为美国环保署提出的生物燃料掺混要求高于行业预期，有利于提振美 国豆油和大豆需求。周内没有美豆大额出口销售订单。从周 K 线角度，6 月 13 日当周，美豆主力 07 合约 周涨幅 0.99%，美豆粕主力 07 合约周跌幅 1.52%。 上周（06.09-06.13），国内豆粕期价"先涨后跌、偏强震荡"，豆一期价上涨。豆粕方面，期价偏强 主要因为中美贸易会谈、市场情绪偏强；后期小幅回落因为原油大涨带动豆油走强、"油强粕弱跷跷板" 效应影响。豆一方面，现货价格稳中偏强， ...