Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) declined on June 23 due to rainfall in western Canada and the weakening of US soybeans, which alleviated concerns about crop shortages. The 11 - month rapeseed contract closed 17.70 Canadian dollars lower at 725 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The good condition of US soybeans and favorable weather forecasts for the Midwest continue to constrain the US soybean market. Domestically, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil - mill operating rate has increased significantly, leading to a more relaxed supply and putting pressure on the meal market prices [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the peak season of aquaculture has arrived, increasing the feed demand. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal is good, weakening the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations adds to the potential increase in supply, dragging down the market price of rapeseed meal. The short - term market focuses on the tight inventory of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, and the growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage [2]. - For rapeseed oil, palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing season, which restricts its market price. However, increased exports boost the palm oil market. The US Environmental Protection Agency's suggestion to increase the blending requirements for biofuels in 2026 and 2027 has greatly increased the demand expectation for US soybean oil, driving up the soybean oil market price. The Middle - East situation has a significant impact on international oil prices, increasing the volatility of the oil market. Domestically, the high inventory pressure of oil mills continues to restrict the market price. Although the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations adds supply pressure, the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides support for the domestic rapeseed oil market price [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active rapeseed oil futures contract was 9572 yuan/ton, down 149 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal futures contract was 2662 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 94 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was 288 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - The position of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased by 21,225 hands to 372,654 hands, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreased by 1429 hands to 35,129 hands. The position of the main rapeseed meal contract decreased by 2498 hands to 516,622 hands, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 6616 hands to 20,885 hands [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 100, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased by 963 to 24,711. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures contract was 724.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 17.1 Canadian dollars [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9920 yuan/ton, and the average price was 9936.25 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2550 yuan/ton, and the oil - meal ratio was 3.78, up 0.05 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 199 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was - 112 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1540 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual production of rapeseed was 89.56 million tons, up 4.32 million tons, and the annual predicted production of rapeseed was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 5280.97 yuan/ton, down 136.56 yuan/ton, and the import rapeseed crushing profit was 125 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton [2]. - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, down 5 million tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 14.26%, down 4.83 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 12.2 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.01 million tons, down 0.54 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 63.05 million tons, up 2.05 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 36.83 million tons, down 0.41 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 7.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 30.8 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 2.81 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 2.87 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.37%, up 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.37%, up 0.42 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 15.87%, down 0.03 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 21.4%, unchanged [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.77%, up 0.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.77%, up 0.51 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 14%, up 0.57 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.63%, up 0.18 percentage points [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 环比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9691 | -12 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2694 | 6 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 115 | -15 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 266 | -10 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 390919 | 2081 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 520553 | 3436 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 38797 | 3682 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | 24294 | 6553 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 100 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 25854 | -10 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 736.5 | 1.2 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5290 | 54 ...

商 品 研 究 豆粕：生物柴油政策利多，连粕跟随美豆偏强 2025 年 06 月 16 日 豆一：豆类市场偏强，跟随补涨 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） DCE豆一2509 | 4241 +52 | （+1.24%） 4249 | （+0.73%） +31 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3041 | -5（-0.16%） 3048 | +0（+0.00%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1068.5 | +26.25（+2.52%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 291.3 -3.2 | （-1.09%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 较昨持平至+30； 2920～2970， 持平； 100/-80， 7-9月M2509-40/+0， | 现货基差M2509 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 06 月 15 日 豆粕：生柴政策利多美豆，偏强震荡 豆一：豆类市场氛围偏多，偏强震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（06.09-06.13），国内豆粕现货主要情况：1）成交：豆粕成交量周环比上升。据钢联统计，截 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 期货研究 上周（06.09-06.13），美豆期价先跌后涨，期价下跌因为美豆产区天气良好、中美贸易谈判缺少农 业细节、美豆需求担忧；期价上涨因为美国环保署提出的生物燃料掺混要求高于行业预期，有利于提振美 国豆油和大豆需求。周内没有美豆大额出口销售订单。从周 K 线角度，6 月 13 日当周，美豆主力 07 合约 周涨幅 0.99%，美豆粕主力 07 合约周跌幅 1.52%。 上周（06.09-06.13），国内豆粕期价"先涨后跌、偏强震荡"，豆一期价上涨。豆粕方面，期价偏强 主要因为中美贸易会谈、市场情绪偏强；后期小幅回落因为原油大涨带动豆油走强、"油强粕弱跷跷板" 效应影响。豆一方面，现货价格稳中偏强， ...