Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the pig farming industry is experiencing a significant increase in profits despite low market prices for live pigs, with companies like Muyuan Foods showing remarkable growth in net profit [1] - Among 13 agricultural listed companies, 8 reported varying degrees of net profit growth, with Muyuan Foods achieving the highest increase [1] - Muyuan Foods sold 46.91 million pigs in the first half of 2025, generating a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, a 34.46% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 10.79 billion yuan, up 952.92% [1] Group 2 - The current pig market is characterized by an oversupply due to reduced demand from schools being on break and high temperatures, leading to lower prices [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to conduct central frozen pork reserve storage to stabilize the market, which may temporarily boost pig prices [2] - Analysts expect that as festivals approach, consumer demand may increase, potentially leading to a slight rebound in pig prices, although a significant price increase is unlikely due to excess production capacity [2] Group 3 - Cost reduction in pig farming is a consensus in the industry, with companies aiming to lower production costs to enhance competitiveness [3] - The complete cost of raising pigs for Jiangsu Lihua Food Group was reported at 12.8 yuan/kg, with expectations to reduce it to 12 yuan/kg by year-end [3] - Feed costs are a major component of production costs, and there is potential for further cost reduction through improved feed efficiency and the adoption of smart farming technologies [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The average price of live pigs may move slightly higher. Supply from the breeding side may decrease as second - fattening farmers and individual farmers with large - weight pigs may hold back their pigs, and large - scale enterprises have little short - term pressure to sell. Demand may remain stable or slightly decline due to the high - temperature off - season and the impact of rising pork prices on sales. As supply decreases and demand stabilizes or slightly decreases, prices may continue to be strong, and long positions can be entered at an appropriate time [2][20]. 3. Summary by Section 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The breeding side may continue to reduce the supply. Second - fattening farmers and individual farmers with large - weight pigs may hold back their pigs due to strong price expectations. Large - scale enterprises had average sales volume in the first ten days of the month and have achieved their weight - reduction targets, so they have little short - term pressure to sell [2][20]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The high - temperature off - season continues, and the trading volume of large pigs is average. Although the enthusiasm of second - fattening farmers increases when prices fall, the rising prices of pork carcasses affect sales to some extent, so demand may remain stable or slightly decline [2][20]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis The report mentions figures related to self - breeding and self - raising profit per pig and profit per pig from purchasing piglets, but no specific analysis of cost - profit is provided in the given text. 5. Market Outlook - Supply may decrease as the breeding side reduces output, and demand may remain stable or slightly decline. The average price may move slightly higher, and prices may continue to be strong [2][20].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of the pig market are weak. Although holiday demand may drive a short - term price rebound after the festival, the market will face pressure again later. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [5][6]. - On the supply side, as the May Day holiday approaches, some breeders and second - fattening farmers are selling large pigs, increasing the average weight of slaughtered pigs. The risk of second - fattening has increased, and the enthusiasm for entry has weakened. The pressure from the postponed supply may gradually emerge after mid - to late May. According to the pig breeding cycle, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing [6]. - On the demand side, the slaughterhouse operating rate rose again last week. It is expected that the terminal demand will improve during the May Day holiday, but the demand may cool down again after the holiday, and the operating rate may first increase and then decrease. There are still passive inventory - building phenomena in a few areas [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Weekly Highlights Summary** - Strategy: Wait for a rebound to short [5]. - Market review: Pig prices continued to decline, with the main contract down 1.7% for the week. Market outlook: Supply pressure will gradually increase in the medium term, and demand may first increase and then decrease. Holiday demand may drive a short - term price rebound, but the market will be under pressure again [6]. **Futures Market Situation** - Futures prices fell, with the main contract down 1.7% for the week [6][10]. - The net short position in futures decreased, and the number of futures warrants increased. As of April 30, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures was 15,386 lots, a decrease of 2,407 lots from the previous week, and the number of futures warrants was 705, an increase of 40 from the previous week [12][16]. **Spot Market Situation** - The basis of the May contract was 1,110 yuan/ton, and the basis of the September contract was 1,290 yuan/ton [20]. - The national average pig price was 14.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/kg from the previous week but an increase of 1.7% from the previous month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week but an increase of 0.86% from the previous month [27]. - The national average pork price was 26.10 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [32]. - As of April 23, the pig - grain ratio was 6.68, a decrease of 0.03 from the previous week [37]. **Upstream Situation** - In March 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million heads, a decrease of 270,000 heads from the previous month, an increase of 1.17% year - on - year, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly in March [42]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory increased year - on - year. In March, the inventory of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased month - on - month [45]. - In March, the slaughter volume of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national foreign - ternary pigs this week was 124.04 kg, an increase of 0.03 kg from the previous week [48]. **Industry Situation** - As of April 25, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 53.53 yuan/head, an increase of 31.74 yuan/head from the previous week; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 100.16 yuan/head, an increase of 20.71 yuan/head from the previous week. The poultry breeding profit was 0.05 yuan/head, an increase of 0.01 yuan/head from the previous week [53]. - From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but it was at a historically low level [58]. - As of April 25, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week; as of April 24, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was 0.1 yuan/kg, a narrowing of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [61]. - As of April 30, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,544.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 424 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2,313.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.16 yuan/ton from the previous week [67]. - As of April 30, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 951.35, an increase of 0.11% from the previous week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [70]. - As of March 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.772 million tons, an increase of 1.428 million tons year - on - year [73]. - As of March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month [77]. **Downstream Situation** - In the 17th week, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 27.19%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points from the previous week and 0.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.45%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from the previous week [80]. - As of February 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 21.77 million heads, a decrease of 42.95% from the previous month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [85]. **Pig - related Stocks** The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate at a low level, and there may still be a possibility of new lows in the long - term [3] - The core logic is that the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly in the first half of 2025, pork consumption is in the off - season, and although there may be new lows in the long - term, due to high uncertainty and the recent firm performance of the spot market, it is recommended to wait and see [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On April 7, 2025, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.59 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from April 3, with a decline of 0.07% [5] - The hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.59 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.08 yuan/kg from April 3, with an increase of 0.55% [5] - The hog slaughter price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.45 yuan/kg [5] - Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13785 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.04% [5] - The 03 contract was 13170 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.53% [5] - The 05 contract was 13330 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.45% [5] - The 07 contract remained unchanged at 13480 yuan/ton [5] - The 09 contract was 13900 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.29% [5] - The 11 contract was 13700 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.07% [5] - The main basis in Henan remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton [5] Key Data Tracking - The report presents data trends of national hog slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - striped pork average price, national corn granary purchase average price, futures contract closing price in the recent 180 days, main contract basis in Henan, 05 - 07 contract spread, and 05 - 09 contract spread from 2022 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][12] Market Dynamics and Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the hog supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, and from the perspective of piglet data, the hog slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 may increase monthly; the first half of the year is the off - season for consumption compared to the second half [2] - Based on historical and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may continue to decline [2] - The short - selling logic includes that the hog slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 still has room to increase and the current breeding end is still increasing weight, which is actually negative for future hog prices; the long - buying logic includes that the recent hog prices have been relatively firm and the futures discount is large, making long - buying cost - effective [2] Strategy Suggestions - The short - term hog price may fluctuate at a low level, and there may still be a possibility of new lows in the long - term [3] - The core logic is that the hog slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 may increase monthly, the current pork consumption is in the off - season, and although there may be new lows in the long - term, due to high uncertainty and the recent firm performance of the spot market, it is recommended to wait and see [3] Other Information - The second - round fattening has both entries and exits, with limited impact on the market [4] - As of April 7, the total number of registered hog warehouse receipts was 0 [4] - The main contract (LH2505) reduced its position by 2321 lots today, with a position of about 45,900 lots, a maximum price of 13,500 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,260 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,330 yuan/ton [4]

| | | 下载图片 | | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪周报 | 2025-04-07 | 另存为PDF | | | 分享 | | | | 作者： | | | 【多空交织 猪价震荡调整】 | 史香迎 | | | 【市场动态】 | 生猪研究员 | | | 1、部分地区少量二育仍在进场； | | | | 2、钢联数据显示，4月重点省份养殖企业计划出栏量环比+3.25%；涌益咨询数据显示，4月其样本点计划出栏量环比+3.67%； | 期货从业资格：F03086321 | | | | 交易咨询资格：Z0019355 | | | 3、主力合约（LH2505）本周偏弱震荡，最高价13310元/吨，最低价13170元/吨，收盘于13270元/吨，持仓量约5万手。 | | | | 【基本面分析】 | 联系方式： | | | 1、能繁母猪存栏量来看，3-12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加，仔猪数据看，今年上半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加；需求端来看，春节前 | | | | 需求增量明显，4、5月份需求虽有好转但幅度有限，6、7月需求偏稳定； | 0371-69106756 | | | 2、05合约多空逻辑： 空头：①肥标差 ...