新华社布鲁塞尔1月5日电（记者康逸）金融机构荷兰国际集团5日发布分析报告指出，在金融市场 迎来2026年第一个交易周之际，市场注意力高度聚焦美国袭击委内瑞拉事件。投资者将评估其带来的短 期、中期和长期影响，以及对更广泛的地区和国际关系的影响。报告摘要如下： 荷兰国际集团大宗商品策略主管沃伦·帕特森认为，当前石油市场反应平淡，原因是受制裁影响， 委内瑞拉在12月下旬的供应量相对较小，约为日均50万桶。 中长期来看，市场影响取决于委内瑞拉石油产量能得到多大程度的提升。如果该国产量提升至日均 250万至300万桶的水平，或将需要5年到10年的时间。 欧元对美元汇率在2025年12月下旬曾短暂升破1比1.18，但如今又重新承压。未来几天委内瑞拉局 势如何发展，将决定欧元汇率是否会进一步走低。 地缘政治的因素也不容忽视。美国总统特朗普并未排除向委内瑞拉派遣地面部队的可能性。如果美 国被拖入在多个拉丁美洲国家展开军事行动的复杂局势中，投资者可能会对美国财政状况和美元前景持 更悲观的态度。更具对抗性和干预主义特征更加明显的美国外交政策，或将引发相关国家重新考虑抛售 美国资产。 对于3日发生在委内瑞拉的事件，市场的初步反应是 ...

新华社布鲁塞尔1月5日电（记者康逸）金融机构荷兰国际集团5日发布分析报告指出，在金融市场迎来 2026年第一个交易周之际，市场注意力高度聚焦美国袭击委内瑞拉事件。投资者将评估其带来的短期、 中期和长期影响，以及对更广泛的地区和国际关系的影响。报告摘要如下： 对于3日发生在委内瑞拉的事件，市场的初步反应是出现温和"避险"走势：黄金和瑞士法郎受到追捧， 美元也获得一定支撑。股指期货似乎并未对目前事态产生过度反应，原油市场则因仍在评估该事件对委 内瑞拉石油产量的短期影响和中长期影响而摇摆不定。 中长期来看，市场影响取决于委内瑞拉石油产量能得到多大程度的提升。如果该国产量提升至日均250 万至300万桶的水平，或将需要5年到10年的时间。 欧元对美元汇率在2025年12月下旬曾短暂升破1比1.18，但如今又重新承压。未来几天委内瑞拉局势如 何发展，将决定欧元汇率是否会进一步走低。 地缘政治的因素也不容忽视。美国总统特朗普并未排除向委内瑞拉派遣地面部队的可能性。如果美国被 拖入在多个拉丁美洲国家展开军事行动的复杂局势中，投资者可能会对美国财政状况和美元前景持更悲 观的态度。更具对抗性和干预主义特征更加明显的美国外交政策 ...

格隆汇1月5日｜InTouch资本市场高级外汇策略师Sean Callow称，由于美国军队成功抓获了委内瑞拉总 统马杜罗，本周一市场将首先关注油价走势。这反映出美国总统特朗普对恢复委内瑞拉原油产量的高度 重视。但Callow表示，短期内石油供应不会有太大变化。他还指出，特朗普政府是否会借此在其他地区 采取行动的选项，可能会引发更大的不确定性。墨西哥比索和哥伦比亚比索或将面临更大波动，而丹麦 则试图抑制来自美国对格陵兰岛行动的新猜测。 ...

Core Insights - Emerging market carry trades are expected to remain effective through 2026, driven by low borrowing costs from central banks in developed economies and sustained interest rate differentials between developed and emerging markets [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Emerging Market Carry Trades - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index has achieved a year-to-date return of 16.71%, the highest since 2009, when it reached 19.89% [3]. - In the previous five years, four years recorded negative returns, with rates of -2.84%, -5.02%, -0.52%, and -3.17% for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2024 respectively [3]. - High benchmark interest rates in countries like Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa have resulted in three-month implied yields of 13.4%, 7.5%, and 6.6%, significantly outperforming developed economies [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategies - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is seen as a key factor for the continued strong performance of emerging market currencies, with expectations of a slowdown encouraging the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy [4]. - Investment firms like Invesco and Goldman Sachs recommend increasing short positions on the U.S. dollar against currencies such as the Brazilian real and South African rand [4]. - Neuberger Berman highlights that reduced volatility in the foreign exchange market and a weak dollar create favorable conditions for emerging market carry trades [5][6]. Group 3: Volatility Concerns - There is ongoing debate about whether low foreign exchange volatility can be maintained, as adverse currency movements could quickly erase gains [7]. - Current indicators from JPMorgan show emerging market currency volatility is near a five-year low, but concerns remain about potential increases due to factors like U.S. midterm elections and Federal Reserve policy divergences [7]. - Vanguard Group believes that market disruptions from events like Trump's tariff policies are diminishing, suggesting a stable environment for emerging market currencies in 2026 [7].

Group 1 - Emerging market carry trades are expected to continue thriving in 2026, supported by reduced forex market volatility and a weak US dollar [1] - A key indicator for this strategy has shown a return of approximately 17% this year, marking the highest increase since 2009 [1] - Major asset management firms and banks anticipate that the interest rate gap between developed and emerging markets will persist, with the Federal Reserve and other wealthy nations' central banks likely to maintain low borrowing costs [1] Group 2 - Emerging market stocks, bonds, and currencies have seen significant increases this year, with countries like Brazil and Colombia experiencing currency appreciation of over 13% against the US dollar [3] - The performance of these markets is closely tied to the US economic outlook, with investors hoping for weak growth to encourage further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [3] - Goldman Sachs has highlighted the attractiveness of shorting the US dollar against currencies like the Brazilian real and South African rand, with a basket of these trades yielding approximately 20% returns this year [3] Group 3 - Investors are assessing whether forex volatility will remain low, as adverse currency movements can quickly erase months of gains [6] - Current market expectations for volatility are low, with a JPMorgan indicator nearing a five-year low, raising concerns among market participants [6] - Despite potential factors that could increase currency volatility, such as US midterm elections and central bank policy divergences, Vanguard Group expects that market disruptions will remain controlled into 2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Deutsche Bank report indicates that Latin American currencies are expected to perform strongly in 2025 due to high real interest rates and favorable external conditions, with Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Peru achieving double-digit returns. However, a reversal of this trend is anticipated in 2026 as focus shifts to national fiscal, external balance, and political fundamentals [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - In 2025, currencies of Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Peru are projected to achieve double-digit returns due to favorable conditions [1] - The report forecasts specific exchange rate targets for the end of 2026: Brazilian Real at 5.2, Colombian Peso at 4000, Chilean Peso at 870, Peruvian Sol at 3.30, and Mexican Peso at 18 [1] Group 2: Risks and Challenges - Brazil and Colombia face the highest risks due to significant macroeconomic imbalances, with potential erosion of currency protection from fiscal deterioration or electoral uncertainties [1] - Brazil's high uncertainty from the October elections may lead to increased fiscal spending and volatility [1] - Colombia may enter a rate hike cycle due to unanchored inflation expectations and fiscal deterioration [1] Group 3: Individual Currency Outlook - Chilean Peso is expected to gradually appreciate due to potential policy adjustments such as lowering corporate taxes, deregulation, and fiscal consolidation [1] - Peruvian currency appreciation is limited due to high valuation [1] - Mexican Peso is likely to remain strong due to solid access to the U.S. market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The election of Fumio Kishida as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party is expected to lead to a slowdown in interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, reviving interest in yen carry trades [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The yen depreciated significantly against major currencies, with a drop of up to 2% against the US dollar following Kishida's victory [3]. - Market participants are reducing bets on the Bank of Japan tightening its monetary policy, with the likelihood of a rate hike on October 30 now estimated at only 19%, down from approximately 57% before the election [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Kishida's stance on economic policy, which includes potential increased government spending and a reluctance to raise interest rates, is causing concerns about inflation and the value of the yen [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that if Kishida continues to advocate for a weak yen, it could lead to a resurgence of carry trades, further weakening the yen [4]. Group 3: Carry Trade Opportunities - Recent weeks have seen profitable carry trades, particularly those involving borrowing in yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies, with returns exceeding 5% for certain trades [4]. - The current market environment is reminiscent of the mid-2000s, a period characterized by favorable conditions for currency carry trades [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Traders will closely monitor statements from Bank of Japan officials for any signs of a shift in policy direction, although some analysts believe the central bank is unlikely to change its stance quickly [5]. - The yen's weakness is expected to maintain the attractiveness of carry trades, with projections suggesting the USD/JPY exchange rate could reach 155 by year-end [8].

Group 1 - The Colombian peso is experiencing the largest decline among emerging market currencies against the US dollar [1] - Reports indicate that Colombia will suspend the implementation of its fiscal framework [1]