Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish inclination with poor market operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency and low market maneuverability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bearish bias and weak market operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, meaning a bearish trend and limited market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil inventory has increased by 4.3% since the second half of the year, with crude oil inventory rising by 3.9% (mainly in transit and floating storage) and refined oil inventory increasing by 5.1%. The inventory accumulation rate has accelerated compared to the first half of the year. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The medium-term strategy is to sell at high prices. The short-term strategy of combining crude oil short positions with out-of-the-money call options can be temporarily closed for profit [2] - The threat of tariff hikes by Trump over the weekend led to a decline in the prices of risk assets including crude oil. Fuel oil prices followed the decline. In the short term, high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by the damaged production capacity of Russian refineries, while low-sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas [3] - The national asphalt production plan for October increased by 350,000 tons year-on-year and decreased slightly by 4,000 tons month-on-month. The supply pressure is weaker than expected. The asphalt supply and demand remain in a tight balance. The crack spread has rebounded significantly compared to before the holiday [3] - Under the background of OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of overseas associated gas has intensified. The reduction of Saudi CP price in October exceeded market expectations. The market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand. The actual demand on the combustion end has not significantly increased [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, the global oil inventory has increased by 4.3%, with crude oil inventory rising by 3.9% (mainly in transit and floating storage) and refined oil inventory increasing by 5.1%. The inventory accumulation rate has accelerated compared to the first half of the year [2] - In the fourth quarter, the bearish pressure from OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of oil demand continues. New risk aversion sentiment has emerged due to the US government shutdown and the resurgence of the Sino-US trade war. Supply may be tightened temporarily due to the attacks on Russian energy facilities and the risk of sanctions on Russia and Iran. The ceasefire agreement in Gaza is a new attempt at global geopolitical reconciliation [2] - The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The medium-term strategy is to sell at high prices. The short-term strategy of combining crude oil short positions with out-of-the-money call options can be temporarily closed for profit [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The threat of tariff hikes by Trump over the weekend led to a decline in the prices of risk assets including crude oil. Fuel oil prices followed the decline due to factors such as the weakening of geopolitical risk premium and OPEC+ production increase [3] - In the short term, high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by the damaged production capacity of Russian refineries, while low-sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to abundant overseas supply (including the unstable supply from the RFCC unit of Nigeria's Dangote refinery) and loose domestic quotas [3] Asphalt - The national asphalt production plan for October increased by 350,000 tons year-on-year and decreased slightly by 4,000 tons month-on-month. The supply pressure is weaker than expected [3] - In late September, the shipment volume of 54 national asphalt sample enterprises returned to a year-on-year growth of 8%. The latest data shows that the factory inventory has increased month-on-month, the social inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the overall inventory level has slightly increased month-on-month [3] - The asphalt supply and demand remain in a tight balance. The crack spread has rebounded significantly compared to before the holiday [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Under the background of OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of overseas associated gas has intensified. The reduction of Saudi CP price in October exceeded market expectations [3] - The market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand. The actual demand on the combustion end has not significantly increased [3]

Core Viewpoint - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 52,500 tons due to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and concentrated maintenance at smelters, leading to reduced crude copper output [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The reduction in electrolytic copper production is attributed to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and maintenance at smelters [1] - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, refined copper imports have declined, while non-U.S. regions are expected to increase supply by 120,000 tons monthly, raising net import pressure on China [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 85%, leading to expectations of a weaker dollar, which enhances the allocation value of copper as the consumption peak season approaches [1] - The continuous low position of copper holdings below 500,000 lots indicates a lack of market momentum for chasing prices, as funds exit or take profits [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The combination of macroeconomic rate cut expectations and tightening supply supports copper prices, but weak funding conditions and excess supply overseas limit the extent of price increases, resulting in a short-term strong oscillation in copper prices [1]