智通财经APP注意到，由于对供应收紧的担忧以及投资者对大宗商品热情的不断高涨，包括铜和铝在内 的基础金属价格走高，延续了该行业的强劲涨势。 铜、铝和镍的涨幅均超过1%，其中铜正回升至本周早些时候创下的历史高点。高盛集团将铜的上半年 价格预测上调至每吨12,750美元，同时补充称价格有望在今年下半年回落。 伦敦金属交易所指数显示，基础金属价格正迈向连续第四周上涨，这是自8月以来最长的连涨纪录。由 于市场担心美国将征收进口税，导致铜流入该地区并收紧了其他地区的供应，铜一直受到市场青睐。 截至发稿，伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜上涨1.1%至每吨12,856美元，期铝上涨1%。期镍价格为每吨 17,410美元。 此外，在力拓集团表示正洽谈收购嘉能可以创建全球最大的矿业公司后，金属行业的前景也成为了焦 点。这一合并将代表该行业有史以来规模最大的交易。目前，由于生产商寻求扩大铜业务规模，该行业 正陷入收购热潮。 高盛分析师在报告中表示："由于预期美国将对铜征收关税，导致铜被吸引至美国国内，在除美国以外 地区库存较低的情况下，投资者资金的流入为铜价增加了稀缺性溢价。"尽管如此，他们表示不认为每 吨13000美元以上的价格可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market experienced a "V-shaped" reversal in 2025, transitioning from supply surplus in the first half to demand-driven growth in the second half, with prices reaching 120,000 yuan/ton by December 30, 2025 [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: The low prices previously suppressed new project investments and led to the permanent exit of high-cost production capacities. Future lithium ore supply growth is expected to slow down, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15-20% over the next five years [6]. - Demand: Strong growth in lithium battery demand is anticipated, with a projected CAGR of 25-30% over the next five years, particularly driven by explosive growth in energy storage and AI data centers [6]. - Cost: Rising environmental and compliance costs are expected to increase lithium mining and extraction costs domestically, while international costs may rise due to resource nationalization in countries like Argentina and Chile [6]. Inventory and Market Conditions - Inventory: As demand accelerates, inventory levels across the supply chain are expected to tighten, with historical low levels anticipated in the second half of 2025 [7]. - Technical Substitution: Although sodium-ion battery technology shows potential for cost reduction, lithium batteries are expected to remain the dominant technology for the next 3-5 years [7]. Broader Commodity Trends - Other Commodities: The price trends of other commodities such as gold, copper, and aluminum are also in a long-term bull market, influenced by global quantitative easing and geopolitical factors [8]. - Related Materials: Prices of lithium battery-related materials, including copper foil and electrolytes, are also on the rise, impacting lithium carbonate prices [9]. Contrasting Views on Market Outlook - Bearish Perspective: The bearish view argues that global lithium resource capacity is increasing rapidly, leading to a long-term supply surplus. The expected CAGR for lithium ore capacity is 20-25% over the next five years [11]. - Cost Dynamics: The overall cost curve is expected to decline due to the exit of high-cost production and technological advancements, with cash costs for certain projects potentially dropping to 40,000-60,000 yuan/ton [11]. - Demand Concerns: The anticipated high growth in end-user demand, particularly in energy storage, may be overstated, with a projected CAGR of only 15-20% for global lithium battery demand over the next five years [11]. Future Projections - The overall outlook from the research institute suggests a bullish stance on lithium carbonate prices, with expectations for prices to stabilize between 150,000-200,000 yuan/ton in the long term, driven by sustained demand and limited supply [13].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/12/23 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 看多焦煤主力合约的五大理由 5.情绪修复驱动：前期空头资金持续流出后，政策利好推动盘面大幅反弹，市场情绪从悲观转向修复，技 术性反弹动能充足。操作上，中长期逢回调分批布局多单，短期严控仓位。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.估值已至低位：12月累计跌幅超20%，创下年内新低，当前价格低于蒙煤进口成本线，现货升水期货形 成安全垫，估值修复空间显著。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 2.政策暖风护航：六部门发文推动煤炭清洁高效利用，《求是》强调整治"内卷式"竞争，政策引导行业 秩序改善，提振市场预期。 3.补库需求临近：钢厂焦煤库存低于往年12%，春节前冬储补库窗口将启，焦企、钢厂需补至14-15天安 ...

新华财经北京12月10日电（吴郑思、张瑶） 国内商品期货市场周三（12月10日）整体分化震荡，但部分金属的强劲表现仍推动商品指数震荡走升。截至下 午收盘时，综合衡量市场价格走势的中证商品期货指数收报1505.85点，较前一交易日上涨7.81点，涨幅0.52%；中证商品期货指数收报2082.00点，较前一交 易日上涨10.80点，涨幅0.52%。 分品种来看，金价高位持稳的背景下白银市场供应收紧的题材持续发酵，内外盘银价飙升并连续刷新历史新高。10日单日沪银主力合约净流入资金超38亿 元。同受基本面偏强支撑，碳酸锂、锡双双涨超2%。相比之下，氧化铝过剩压力不减，前一日盘中刷新历史低点之后，10日再跌超3%，续创历史新低。玻 璃、纯碱也在终端需求疲弱的拖累下，先后逼近或刷新历史新低。 沪银飙升超5%再创历史新高集运欧线刷新逾三周高点 氧化铝续创历史新低玻璃纯碱 供应收紧推动银锡价格拉涨的同时，过剩压力不减，则令氧化铝近期跌势加速。在前一交易日大跌超2%并在盘中刷新上市以来新低之后，10日氧化铝再跌 3.17%，不仅领跌当天商品市场，更进一步刷新了历史新低。供应过剩压力不减且有加大的趋势，令氧化铝持续疲弱。行业机构 ...

12月3日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价周三创下历史新高，受美元走软、供应忧虑和LME注 册仓库供应紧张影响。 对美联储下周降息的预期升温，以及美元走软也支撑了基本金属的上行动能。 美元走软使得以美元计价的金属对使用其他货币的买家更具吸引力。与此同时，较低的利率改善了依赖 经济增长的金属前景。 嘉能可(Glencore)下调2026年铜产量预期，但表示计划到2035年实现160万吨的年产量目标，这得益于新 矿投产、旧矿复产以及运营效率提升。 三个月期铜收盘上涨342.50美元，或3.07%，报每吨11,487.50美元，盘中触及每吨11,540美元的纪录高 位。 | | 12月3日LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 令屋 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 11487.50 | 1 342.50 | 1 3.07% | | 三个月期铝 | 2897.00 | 1 31.50 | ↑ 1. 10% | | 三个月期锌 | 3065.00 | 1 2.50 | 1 0.08% | | 三个月期铅 | 1999.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish inclination with poor market operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency and low market maneuverability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bearish bias and weak market operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, meaning a bearish trend and limited market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil inventory has increased by 4.3% since the second half of the year, with crude oil inventory rising by 3.9% (mainly in transit and floating storage) and refined oil inventory increasing by 5.1%. The inventory accumulation rate has accelerated compared to the first half of the year. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The medium-term strategy is to sell at high prices. The short-term strategy of combining crude oil short positions with out-of-the-money call options can be temporarily closed for profit [2] - The threat of tariff hikes by Trump over the weekend led to a decline in the prices of risk assets including crude oil. Fuel oil prices followed the decline. In the short term, high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by the damaged production capacity of Russian refineries, while low-sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas [3] - The national asphalt production plan for October increased by 350,000 tons year-on-year and decreased slightly by 4,000 tons month-on-month. The supply pressure is weaker than expected. The asphalt supply and demand remain in a tight balance. The crack spread has rebounded significantly compared to before the holiday [3] - Under the background of OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of overseas associated gas has intensified. The reduction of Saudi CP price in October exceeded market expectations. The market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand. The actual demand on the combustion end has not significantly increased [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, the global oil inventory has increased by 4.3%, with crude oil inventory rising by 3.9% (mainly in transit and floating storage) and refined oil inventory increasing by 5.1%. The inventory accumulation rate has accelerated compared to the first half of the year [2] - In the fourth quarter, the bearish pressure from OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of oil demand continues. New risk aversion sentiment has emerged due to the US government shutdown and the resurgence of the Sino-US trade war. Supply may be tightened temporarily due to the attacks on Russian energy facilities and the risk of sanctions on Russia and Iran. The ceasefire agreement in Gaza is a new attempt at global geopolitical reconciliation [2] - The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The medium-term strategy is to sell at high prices. The short-term strategy of combining crude oil short positions with out-of-the-money call options can be temporarily closed for profit [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The threat of tariff hikes by Trump over the weekend led to a decline in the prices of risk assets including crude oil. Fuel oil prices followed the decline due to factors such as the weakening of geopolitical risk premium and OPEC+ production increase [3] - In the short term, high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by the damaged production capacity of Russian refineries, while low-sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to abundant overseas supply (including the unstable supply from the RFCC unit of Nigeria's Dangote refinery) and loose domestic quotas [3] Asphalt - The national asphalt production plan for October increased by 350,000 tons year-on-year and decreased slightly by 4,000 tons month-on-month. The supply pressure is weaker than expected [3] - In late September, the shipment volume of 54 national asphalt sample enterprises returned to a year-on-year growth of 8%. The latest data shows that the factory inventory has increased month-on-month, the social inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the overall inventory level has slightly increased month-on-month [3] - The asphalt supply and demand remain in a tight balance. The crack spread has rebounded significantly compared to before the holiday [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Under the background of OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of overseas associated gas has intensified. The reduction of Saudi CP price in October exceeded market expectations [3] - The market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand. The actual demand on the combustion end has not significantly increased [3]

Core Viewpoint - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 52,500 tons due to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and concentrated maintenance at smelters, leading to reduced crude copper output [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The reduction in electrolytic copper production is attributed to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and maintenance at smelters [1] - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, refined copper imports have declined, while non-U.S. regions are expected to increase supply by 120,000 tons monthly, raising net import pressure on China [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 85%, leading to expectations of a weaker dollar, which enhances the allocation value of copper as the consumption peak season approaches [1] - The continuous low position of copper holdings below 500,000 lots indicates a lack of market momentum for chasing prices, as funds exit or take profits [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The combination of macroeconomic rate cut expectations and tightening supply supports copper prices, but weak funding conditions and excess supply overseas limit the extent of price increases, resulting in a short-term strong oscillation in copper prices [1]