Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results on September 22, with the main silver contract rising over 3% and gold contracts increasing by more than 2% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1459.65 points, up 7.48 points or 0.52% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals remain the market's highlight, with silver prices continuing to rise and spot gold prices surpassing $3700 per ounce, reaching new highs [2] - The market sentiment for gold and silver is overwhelmingly bullish due to ongoing positive factors and increased safe-haven buying amid rising risks of a U.S. government shutdown [2] Group 3: Shipping and Transportation - The shipping index (European line) experienced a rebound, attributed to emotional recovery after a significant drop last week due to airline pricing adjustments during the off-season [2] - The market sentiment for shipping is stabilizing as the main contract transitions to a relatively busier season, with cautious expectations for further price declines [2] Group 4: Other Commodities - Oilseeds and oils showed an overall rebound, with prices for various soybean and oil products rising approximately 1% [3] - The main contract for polysilicon saw a significant decline of 3.63%, driven by a lack of new stimulus from policies and a still loose supply-demand balance [4] Group 5: Oil and Gas Sector - The SC crude oil main contract fell by 1.67%, with a general downturn in the oil and gas sector as demand weakens with the arrival of the off-season [4] - Despite geopolitical tensions potentially affecting oil supply, the overall market is expected to face a widening supply-demand surplus, leading to a bearish outlook for crude oil prices [4]

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The oil market has a continuous inventory build - up pressure after the peak season, and different energy products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Investment strategies vary according to the specific conditions of each product [2][3][4][5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Since the third quarter, global oil inventories have increased by 1.1%, similar to the first and second quarters. The supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter is expected to double. After the geopolitical risk concerns eased last week, the market focused on the supply - demand bearish expectations. A double - buy strategy for out - of - the - money options of SC2510 is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals and weak shipping demand. Singapore's fuel oil inventory remains high. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected third - batch quota release and cost weakening. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by sanctions on Russia and Iran [3] Asphalt - In August, the profit difference between coking and asphalt has increased steadily, and refineries' willingness to switch to producing residue may rise. Supply pressure is limited, demand is weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices. The BU crack is considered strong recently [4] LPG - The overseas export market is loose, but the recovery of East Asian chemical procurement provides support. Import volume has increased in early August. The refinery gas price has room to decline. The market is in a low - level oscillation after initially fulfilling the bearish expectations [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆, indicating short - term trend equilibrium and poor operability) [1] - Fuel oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Asphalt: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Bullish (represented by ★☆☆, indicating a bullish trend but poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The support of strong real - world factors for oil prices has weakened, and the market rating has been adjusted from bullish to neutral. The oil market may be under pressure and fluctuate, but it is expected to gain support again in August [1] - The EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia has increased the supply risk of high - sulfur resources, supporting the FU's resistance to decline. The LU follows the crude oil trend, and the decline in SC leads to the passive strengthening of LU cracking [2] - The asphalt production of refineries in August is expected to decline compared to July. The demand recovery is delayed, but the overall commercial inventory has decreased slightly, and the BU cracking is expected to be supported [2] - The overseas LPG market is weak, but the domestic chemical demand is strong. The domestic LPG supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market is running weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the support of strong real - world factors for oil prices weakened, and the market rating was adjusted from bullish to neutral. This week, the contango, spot premium, and gasoline cracking have further confirmed this judgment [1] - Since the second half of the year, global oil inventories have increased by 0.2%, with crude oil inventories decreasing by 0.7% and refined oil inventories increasing by 1.7%. The market is still in a state of inventory accumulation due to supply - demand surplus in the third quarter, although the amplitude may slow down [1] - There is still uncertainty about the US tariff increase on Brazil, the EU, Canada, and Mexico before August 1. The related negative risks are greater than the geopolitical risks of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Oil prices may be under pressure and fluctuate. As the final deadlines for the Iran nuclear and Russia - Ukraine negotiations approach at the end of August and early September, geopolitical games may intensify again in August, and the crude oil market is expected to gain support [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, SC has weakened significantly, and the fuel oil futures are under pressure, but FU is significantly resistant to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread continues to shrink [2] - After the EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia, the supply risk of high - sulfur resources has increased, supporting the FU's trend and making it resistant to decline among oil products [2] - The LU's unilateral trend follows the crude oil, but the fluctuation range is less than that of SC. The decline in SC leads to the passive strengthening of LU cracking [2] Asphalt - Longzhong reported that the refinery production plan in August decreased significantly compared to July. Affected by typhoon and rainfall in the South, the demand recovery is slower than expected, and the rigid demand in the North is also weak [2] - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased slightly month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase has remained stable since July. The latest data shows that the refinery inventory has returned to the destocking state, the social inventory has slightly increased, and the overall commercial inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month [2] - In the asphalt industry, state - owned enterprises mainly operate plants with a production period of more than 20 years, and the private enterprise production capacity accounts for only 3.6%, which has a limited marginal reduction effect on the industry's production capacity. Considering the low - inventory pattern of asphalt, the BU cracking is expected to be supported [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas market is generally weak. The increase in Middle East sales and high - level inventory accumulation in North America continue to suppress the market. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a further decline in CP at the end of the month [2] - The domestic PDH has quickly resumed production, and the current profit margin remains at a good level this year, with strong short - term chemical demand [2] - The external supply of refineries has slightly decreased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, domestic LPG is expected to stabilize. The loose spot market strengthens the delivery discount pressure, and the futures market is running weakly under the weakening support of crude oil [2]