Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One red star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [5][6] - Fuel oil: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Asphalt: Three green stars, suggesting a clearer downward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price has continued to show a weak and volatile performance since the end of October. The supply-side contraction-induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and a weak and volatile judgment on crude oil is maintained [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term, but the medium-term supply pattern tends to be loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but medium-term supply pressure still exists [2] - The cost support for asphalt has been continuously weakening, the demand is expected to follow the seasonal weakening pattern, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a bearish impact on BU [3] - The supply and demand of liquefied petroleum gas have tightened marginally, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the end of October, the oil price has continued to show a weak and volatile performance. Geopolitical risks have boosted the oil price, but the rebound height has always been limited [2] - According to the monthly reports of the three major institutions, considering the suspension of production increases by OPEC+ in the first quarter of next year and the strict implementation of production cut compensation, the global oil market will have a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively [2] - The supply-side contraction-induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and a weak and volatile judgment on crude oil is maintained [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. The subsequent actual exports of Russia still have uncertainties, but the medium-term supply pattern tends to be loose [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but the possible increase in low-sulfur shipping volume caused by the planned maintenance of the RFCC unit of the Kaigute refinery at the end of December needs attention, and medium-term supply pressure still exists [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel, and the cost support has been continuously weakening [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has decreased month-on-month and is also at a low level in the same period of the past four years [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" end-year rush demand expectation has been falsified, and the subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening pattern. The medium- and long-term fundamentals have a bearish impact on BU [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The increase in propane discount supports the import landed cost [4] - The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start operations, and the demand on the combustion side has improved [4] - The supply and demand of liquefied petroleum gas have tightened marginally, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One red star, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities on the market [5][6] - Fuel oil: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Asphalt: Three green stars, meaning a clearer downward trend and relatively appropriate short-selling opportunities [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] Report's Core View - The oil market is facing different supply and demand situations, with crude oil expected to be volatile and weak, while fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas are expected to be bullish, and asphalt is expected to be bearish [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since late October, oil prices have continued to show a volatile and weak performance, with geopolitical risks providing some support but limited rebound [2] - According to the three major institutions' monthly reports, considering OPEC+'s suspension of production increases and strict implementation of production cut compensation in the first quarter of next year, the global oil market will have a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day this year and 3.31 million barrels per day next year [2] - The supply-side contraction has not yet led to a cyclical inflection point in oil prices, and a volatile and weak outlook is maintained [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical factors, but the mid-term supply pattern is expected to be loose as the Middle East increases production and the power generation peak season ends [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but mid-term supply pressure still exists, especially considering the planned maintenance of the RFCC unit at the Kert refinery in late December [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel, weakening cost support [3] - Weekly shipments have decreased month-on-month since November and are at a low level in the same period in the past four years [3] - Commercial inventory depletion has continued to slow down, and the year-on-year increase in social inventory has widened since the end of October [3] - The expected rush demand in the "14th Five-Year Plan" has been disproven, and subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening pattern, with negative signals for year-end demand compared to last year [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The increase in propane discount supports the import cost [4] - The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the demand for combustion has improved due to the significant cooling in many places [4] - The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the supply and demand have tightened marginally, leading to a bullish outlook [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as the US government shutdown, supply - demand dynamics, and policy uncertainties across different commodities [2][3]. - Most commodities are expected to show various trends including oscillations, declines, or limited upward movements in the short - to - medium term [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices fell overnight. US government shutdown and API inventory increase added pressure, with medium - term supply - demand surplus weighing on prices [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil followed crude oil down. Low - sulfur supply pressure may ease marginally, while high - sulfur supply is expected to be more abundant in the medium term, and the high - low sulfur crack spread may widen further [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Weekly LPG production declined. Demand improved but was offset by weakening cost support from oil prices, causing LPG to fall [24]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Coal**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Nuclear Energy**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Renewable Energy**: - **Polysilicon**: Futures dropped. Supply pressure increased with rising inventory, and the market may enter a short - term consolidation phase [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures fell due to polysilicon market sentiment. It's in a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, with limited upside [13]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals declined overnight. With the US government shutdown and data issues, they are in a high - level oscillation, and it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Copper prices dropped overnight. New supply - loss or demand signals are needed after hitting record highs, and it's recommended to observe [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fell. Domestic inventory and consumption were average, and the upside space is limited [5]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory supported overseas premiums, and falling TC supported domestic prices. After the consumption peak, zinc prices may find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: Lead prices oscillated narrowly. Consumption may weaken, but cost and low inventory provided support, with a short - term range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices were weak. Downstream demand was soft, and nickel may continue to be affected by upstream price trends [10]. - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated. If it breaks below the MA20, short - selling may be considered as prices may fall to October lows [11]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory at a low level supported overseas premiums, and falling TC propped up domestic prices. After the consumption peak, zinc prices may find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Prices weakened. Supply was high, and demand may decline further in the off - season. It's expected to oscillate weakly at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: Prices dropped. There's a third - round price increase expectation, but steel mills' low profits limit upside, and it's necessary to monitor safety inspections [17]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices declined. Although some mines resumed production, prices may not fall continuously. It's important to watch safety inspections [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Prices oscillated. High iron - water production supported demand, and prices are likely to oscillate narrowly [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: Prices oscillated. Demand was fair, and prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range [20]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices fell. Demand was weak, and the market may oscillate at a low level, with attention on environmental restrictions and demand changes [15]. Chemicals - **Alkali Chemicals**: - **Soda Ash**: Prices were weak. Supply increased, and demand may decrease, and it's advisable to watch the long - glass short - soda strategy [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: Prices continued to fall. Profit margins were squeezed, and demand was weak, with potential for a rebound if chlorine prices keep dropping [30]. - **Organic Chemicals**: - **Methanol**: Prices stabilized. High imports and inventory, along with weak downstream demand, may keep prices under pressure [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices were weak. Port inventory increased, and there are mid - term supply - demand concerns, with a focus on port inventory build - up [27]. - **Styrene**: Prices were under pressure. Supply decreased slightly, but high inventory persisted, and demand was stable [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene may see price support, while polyethylene supply increased and demand weakened, and polypropylene faces supply pressure and limited demand [29]. - **PVC**: Prices were low. Supply may increase, and demand declined, with cost support being weak [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices moved down. Supply increased, and there's a risk of inventory build - up, with a focus on oil price fluctuations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and inventory is expected to rise, with a focus on potential plant shutdowns [32]. - **Fertilizers**: - **Urea**: Prices oscillated strongly. Demand increased, and inventory decreased, but oversupply persists, and prices may oscillate within a range [25]. - **Ammonia**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Phosphate Fertilizers**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Potash Fertilizers**: Not mentioned in the report. Building Materials - **Glass**: Prices oscillated strongly. Supply changes and cost increases supported prices, and it's advisable to hold short - put options [34]. - **Cement**: Not mentioned in the report. Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Prices oscillated weakly. US - China trade relations are key, and domestic supply is sufficient. Look for buying opportunities on dips [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil may face a decline due to high supply, while soybean oil is affected by biodiesel policies [38]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The market is influenced by trade relations. Rapeseed meal can be short - term long, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak [39]. - **Corn**: Prices were strong. Supply is abundant, and the market may remain weak at the bottom, with attention on US - China trade policies [41]. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated at a low level. Supply pressure is high, and a second - bottom in prices is likely next year [42]. - **Chickens**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Eggs**: Prices oscillated. Supply may improve in the long - term, and look for short - selling opportunities in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: Prices oscillated. US - China trade and domestic demand are key factors, and it's advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Sugar**: Prices fell. International supply is abundant, and domestic production expectations are good, with attention on weather [45]. - **Fruits**: - **Apples**: Prices dropped. High - quality apples are scarce, and inventory pressure is a concern, with a bearish view [46]. - **Timber & Pulp**: - **Timber**: Prices were weak. Low inventory supports prices, and it's advisable to wait and see [47]. - **Pulp**: Prices fell slightly. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak in the short - term, with a possible improvement in the medium - term [48]. Others - **Shipping**: The Container Freight Index (Europe Line) may stabilize and rise slightly, but further upside is limited without new drivers [21]. - **Financial Products**: - **Stock Index**: A - shares fell, and the market is expected to oscillate, with a focus on the technology growth sector [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish tendency with limited trading operability [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook and poor trading operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bearish view and low trading operability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bearish trend and limited trading opportunities [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a balanced short-term trend and poor trading operability, advising to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is under pressure, with crude oil having a mid-term bearish trend, and other energy products also facing various supply and demand challenges and price pressures [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined further, with the SC11 contract dropping 1.79% intraday. Uncertainty in Sino-US trade and increased expected supply-demand surplus are pressuring the oil market. The mid-term bearish view remains unchanged, and short-term attention should be paid to the impact of Sino-US talks during the APAC meeting at the end of the month [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is following the decline of crude oil. High-sulfur fuel oil is relatively stable in the short term but faces multiple pressures in the medium term. Strategies include shorting high-sulfur cracking spreads and widening high-low sulfur spreads after geopolitical tensions ease. Low-sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas, and attention should be paid to the impact of increased port fees on trade and demand [2] Asphalt - The asphalt supply-demand remains in a tight balance. It follows the decline of crude oil but with limited跌幅, and the cracking spread rebounds. There is an expectation of slight inventory accumulation by the end of 2025, and the fundamental support is expected to weaken in the later Q4, with continued pressure from the cost side [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG is resistant to decline at a low level. The US propane export volume has decreased, and the arrival volume is low. Refinery inventories have slightly increased, while port inventories have declined. There is increased supply pressure from overseas associated gas, and downstream procurement is mainly for刚需. The demand in the combustion end is expected to increase in the traditional peak season, but the actual demand has not significantly improved [3]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results on September 22, with the main silver contract rising over 3% and gold contracts increasing by more than 2% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1459.65 points, up 7.48 points or 0.52% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals remain the market's highlight, with silver prices continuing to rise and spot gold prices surpassing $3700 per ounce, reaching new highs [2] - The market sentiment for gold and silver is overwhelmingly bullish due to ongoing positive factors and increased safe-haven buying amid rising risks of a U.S. government shutdown [2] Group 3: Shipping and Transportation - The shipping index (European line) experienced a rebound, attributed to emotional recovery after a significant drop last week due to airline pricing adjustments during the off-season [2] - The market sentiment for shipping is stabilizing as the main contract transitions to a relatively busier season, with cautious expectations for further price declines [2] Group 4: Other Commodities - Oilseeds and oils showed an overall rebound, with prices for various soybean and oil products rising approximately 1% [3] - The main contract for polysilicon saw a significant decline of 3.63%, driven by a lack of new stimulus from policies and a still loose supply-demand balance [4] Group 5: Oil and Gas Sector - The SC crude oil main contract fell by 1.67%, with a general downturn in the oil and gas sector as demand weakens with the arrival of the off-season [4] - Despite geopolitical tensions potentially affecting oil supply, the overall market is expected to face a widening supply-demand surplus, leading to a bearish outlook for crude oil prices [4]

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The oil market has a continuous inventory build - up pressure after the peak season, and different energy products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Investment strategies vary according to the specific conditions of each product [2][3][4][5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Since the third quarter, global oil inventories have increased by 1.1%, similar to the first and second quarters. The supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter is expected to double. After the geopolitical risk concerns eased last week, the market focused on the supply - demand bearish expectations. A double - buy strategy for out - of - the - money options of SC2510 is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals and weak shipping demand. Singapore's fuel oil inventory remains high. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected third - batch quota release and cost weakening. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by sanctions on Russia and Iran [3] Asphalt - In August, the profit difference between coking and asphalt has increased steadily, and refineries' willingness to switch to producing residue may rise. Supply pressure is limited, demand is weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices. The BU crack is considered strong recently [4] LPG - The overseas export market is loose, but the recovery of East Asian chemical procurement provides support. Import volume has increased in early August. The refinery gas price has room to decline. The market is in a low - level oscillation after initially fulfilling the bearish expectations [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆, indicating short - term trend equilibrium and poor operability) [1] - Fuel oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Asphalt: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Bullish (represented by ★☆☆, indicating a bullish trend but poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The support of strong real - world factors for oil prices has weakened, and the market rating has been adjusted from bullish to neutral. The oil market may be under pressure and fluctuate, but it is expected to gain support again in August [1] - The EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia has increased the supply risk of high - sulfur resources, supporting the FU's resistance to decline. The LU follows the crude oil trend, and the decline in SC leads to the passive strengthening of LU cracking [2] - The asphalt production of refineries in August is expected to decline compared to July. The demand recovery is delayed, but the overall commercial inventory has decreased slightly, and the BU cracking is expected to be supported [2] - The overseas LPG market is weak, but the domestic chemical demand is strong. The domestic LPG supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market is running weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the support of strong real - world factors for oil prices weakened, and the market rating was adjusted from bullish to neutral. This week, the contango, spot premium, and gasoline cracking have further confirmed this judgment [1] - Since the second half of the year, global oil inventories have increased by 0.2%, with crude oil inventories decreasing by 0.7% and refined oil inventories increasing by 1.7%. The market is still in a state of inventory accumulation due to supply - demand surplus in the third quarter, although the amplitude may slow down [1] - There is still uncertainty about the US tariff increase on Brazil, the EU, Canada, and Mexico before August 1. The related negative risks are greater than the geopolitical risks of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Oil prices may be under pressure and fluctuate. As the final deadlines for the Iran nuclear and Russia - Ukraine negotiations approach at the end of August and early September, geopolitical games may intensify again in August, and the crude oil market is expected to gain support [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, SC has weakened significantly, and the fuel oil futures are under pressure, but FU is significantly resistant to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread continues to shrink [2] - After the EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia, the supply risk of high - sulfur resources has increased, supporting the FU's trend and making it resistant to decline among oil products [2] - The LU's unilateral trend follows the crude oil, but the fluctuation range is less than that of SC. The decline in SC leads to the passive strengthening of LU cracking [2] Asphalt - Longzhong reported that the refinery production plan in August decreased significantly compared to July. Affected by typhoon and rainfall in the South, the demand recovery is slower than expected, and the rigid demand in the North is also weak [2] - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased slightly month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase has remained stable since July. The latest data shows that the refinery inventory has returned to the destocking state, the social inventory has slightly increased, and the overall commercial inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month [2] - In the asphalt industry, state - owned enterprises mainly operate plants with a production period of more than 20 years, and the private enterprise production capacity accounts for only 3.6%, which has a limited marginal reduction effect on the industry's production capacity. Considering the low - inventory pattern of asphalt, the BU cracking is expected to be supported [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas market is generally weak. The increase in Middle East sales and high - level inventory accumulation in North America continue to suppress the market. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a further decline in CP at the end of the month [2] - The domestic PDH has quickly resumed production, and the current profit margin remains at a good level this year, with strong short - term chemical demand [2] - The external supply of refineries has slightly decreased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, domestic LPG is expected to stabilize. The loose spot market strengthens the delivery discount pressure, and the futures market is running weakly under the weakening support of crude oil [2]