1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unclear situation of the geopolitical conflict, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The global stagflation expectation faces significant uncertain fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the potential adverse impact of the repeated geopolitical situation on risk assets. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF, while being vigilant about the drag that the further deterioration of market risk appetite may bring to the stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Macroeconomics - The situation of the Iranian geopolitical conflict continues to affect the financial market, and the war situation has fluctuated. On March 26, the Israeli Defense Forces launched a series of large - scale attacks on the infrastructure in Isfahan, increasing market concerns about the further escalation of the war. Iran has responded to the US's 15 - point cease - fire proposal through an intermediary, but believes the US's negotiation stance is part of a "third deception" plan. The market's expectation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has been dashed, resulting in a rebound in oil prices and a decline in major assets. The negotiation may still be in the intermediary - mediated stage, and it is difficult to reach a complete agreement quickly in the short term [1]. 3.2 Domestic Macroeconomics - The "15th Five - Year Plan" outlines an increase in the target for the added value of the core digital economy industries on the basis of the "14th Five - Year Plan" indicator framework, and adds indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy. It also prioritizes the rectification of involution - style competition and the promotion of carbon peak work, and improves the unified market and dual - carbon assessment and certification systems. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable and has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. The domestic port container throughput and the CRB index are at seasonal highs, indicating that external demand remains resilient [1]. 3.3 Asset Views - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. Be vigilant about the potential adverse impact of the repeated geopolitical situation on risk assets. The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant about the drag that the further deterioration of market risk appetite may bring, and it is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. 3.4 Market Conditions of Various Sectors - **Financial Sector**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and risk appetite tightens. Stock index futures are affected by strong geopolitical risks and are in a volatile state; stock index options have a slight increase in implied volatility and are also in a volatile state; treasury bond futures have improved sentiment due to safe - haven demand and loose capital, and are in a volatile state [4]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: In the short term, they are in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the risk of repeated conflicts. Gold and silver are affected by the repeated geopolitical situation, which raises inflation concerns, but the spot drive of silver is still weak, and both are in a volatile state [4]. - **Shipping Sector**: The opening freight rate of MSK has decreased month - on - month. The spot market has declined, and the passage through the strait may improve marginally. The container shipping European line is in a weakly volatile state [4]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: The cost support has weakened, and the prices are falling from high levels. Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as cost, production, and inventory [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Pessimistic sentiment has eased, and basic metals are oscillating and rising. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, and polysilicon are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [4]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The energy shortage continues to affect the market, and the chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle chips, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, supply, and demand [5][6]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The supply of pig sources is sufficient, and the price continues to fall. Grains, oils, livestock, and other agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are in a volatile state, affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies. Among them, the price of live pigs continues to fall, and it is in a weakly volatile state [5][6]. 3.5 Market Fluctuation Data - **Financial Market**: On March 26, 2026, stock index futures such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined; treasury bond futures such as 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year showed different degrees of increase; the US dollar index increased, and the US dollar intermediate price also changed; interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield also changed [8]. - **Industry Index**: On March 26, 2026, most industries in the CITIC Industry Index declined, with industries such as national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and electronics having relatively large declines, while industries such as coal and oil and petrochemicals had slight increases [9][10]. - **Overseas Commodities**: On March 25, 2026, energy commodities such as NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil declined; precious metals such as COMEX gold and COMEX silver increased; non - ferrous metals such as LME copper and LME aluminum had different trends; agricultural products such as CBOT soybeans and CBOT corn increased [11][12]. - **Domestic Commodities**: On March 26, 2026, shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy and chemicals, and agricultural products all showed different degrees of price fluctuations. For example, the container shipping European line increased, while gold and silver declined [13][14][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the macro - logic continued to dominate the market. With the war escalating and the Fed remaining hawkish, most commodities except a few energy - chemical products declined. Next week, the war situation will still significantly impact the market. The performance of commodities is expected to be energy and chemicals > agricultural products > ferrous metals > precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Given the high volatility of commodities, it is recommended to wait and see until the situation becomes clear [2][18][19]. Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 One - Week Review: Commodity Trends Diverged, Only Some Energy - Chemical Products Performed Strongly - From March 16th to 22nd, commodity trends diverged. Only some energy - chemical products were strong. In terms of sectors: coal chemical industry > energy > oil chemical industry > ferrous metals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > precious metals. In the first half of the week, the market fluctuated narrowly. In the second half, the Fed remained unchanged, and Powell's hawkish statement led to a downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations. The attack on Iranian oil and gas facilities by Israel on Thursday caused oil and chemical prices to rise, but they slightly declined on Friday [1][11]. 1.2 Next - Week Outlook: The War Situation is Complex, It is Recommended to Wait and See Cautiously - The war shows an escalating trend, with the Fed remaining hawkish. Most commodities except energy - chemical products declined. Next week, the arrival of the US amphibious landing force in the Middle East may lead to further war escalation, but there are also signs of "peace talks". As long as the strait is not unsealed, there will be a supply - demand gap in the energy market, and energy - chemical products have a basis for price increase. However, due to high volatility, it is recommended to wait and see [2][18][19]. 2. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Data Tracking - The US dollar index weakened, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose. As of March 20th, the US dollar index fell 0.99% to 99.5100, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 11BP to 4.39%. The attack on Iranian oil and gas facilities and high US PPI have raised inflation concerns. The Fed remained unchanged, with some hawkish statements. The weakening of the US dollar index may be due to concerns about the US getting into a war quagmire and future stagflation [26][27]. 3. Upstream Raw Material Prices - The Iran - US war continues, and with the attack on Iranian energy facilities, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has not been substantially restored, causing oil prices to rise. The increase in oil prices and downstream restocking demand are positive for coking coal, but due to loose domestic supply and weak terminal demand, coking coal prices are generally fluctuating [30]. 4. High - Frequency Production - End Data - Most commodity production - end data improved this week, except for the slight decline in PE capacity utilization, and production indicators of glass and soda ash. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value from January to February was 6.3%, exceeding market expectations [33]. 5. High - Frequency Inventory - End Data - Gold and silver inventories continued to decline slightly. Most industrial product inventories decreased, but the inventories of copper, aluminum, PTA, etc. continued to accumulate, and the inventory pressure of live pigs was relatively high [53]. 6. High - Frequency Demand - End Data - Most real - estate high - frequency indicators improved this week, such as the increase in the sales area of second - hand houses in 16 cities and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities. The government bond issuance and net financing scale increased significantly. Terminal demand, including subway passenger volume, flight execution rate, apparent consumption of rebar, and power consumption of 25 provinces' power plants, is improving [75][76]. 7. Key Commodity Basis - The report provides data on the basis of key commodities such as gold, copper, aluminum, rebar, etc., but specific analysis is not detailed in the provided text [90]. 8. Commodity Price Ratios - The report presents various commodity price ratios, including the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, etc., but no in - depth analysis is provided [101]. 9. Summary and Outlook - The performance of commodities is expected to be energy and chemicals > agricultural products > ferrous metals > non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Due to the unpredictable war situation, it is recommended to wait and see [3][110].

Group 1 - The report highlights that during the period from February 27 to March 6, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to a significant increase in oil prices, with a weekly rise of approximately 30% and a year-to-date increase exceeding 50% [1][8] - The report indicates that the performance of commodities, particularly oil, has outperformed other asset classes, driven by supply disruption risks due to geopolitical conflicts [8][22] - The report notes that the correlation between A-shares and commodities has marginally decreased, while the correlation between US and Japanese stocks has slightly increased [12][15] Group 2 - The report states that developed markets experienced smaller declines compared to emerging markets, with North American indices faring better than Asian ones during the same period [22][24] - It mentions that the MSCI Global Index fell by 3.7%, with the smallest decline observed in the Russian RTS index and the largest in the South Korean Composite Index, which dropped by 10.6% [22][24] - The report details that the A-share indices, including the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, saw more pronounced declines compared to the broader market, reflecting a challenging environment for small-cap stocks [22][28] Group 3 - The report describes the Chinese bond market as exhibiting a "bull steepening" trend, with a general decline in yield curves and a widening of the 10Y-2Y yield spread [35][36] - It highlights that the US bond market is characterized by a "bear steepening" trend, with increases in short-term yields and a widening of the 10Y-3M yield spread [35][36] - The report indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has shifted, with expectations now pointing to potential cuts in July and October [35][46] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that commodity prices, particularly oil, have continued to rise, with the South China and CRB commodity indices showing significant increases [57][59] - It notes that among 13 major commodities, 7 recorded price increases, with WTI and Brent crude oil leading the gains [57][59] - The report also mentions a decline in inventories for gold and silver, contrasting with the previous trends observed over the past three years [57][60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight recommendation for stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends the allocation of TS and TF [1] Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical conflict stage affects market expectations of inflation and the economy, and the Fed will respond when long - term inflation expectations change. It is recommended to use the neutral scenario as the benchmark for asset portfolio construction and manage the positions of risk assets in the short term [1] - The market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the focus will shift to the verification of real - world data [1] - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance Summary - Most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with shipping futures leading the gains, and energy, chemical, and other sectors also rising. Some varieties such as crude oil and asphalt had significant increases. However, basic metals and precious metals mostly declined [1] Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Analysis - Overseas: The stage of geopolitical conflict is crucial for the market's inflation and economic expectations, and the Fed will act when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended for asset allocation [1] - Domestic: After the release of the report, the market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the focus will shift to data verification [1] Asset Views - Short - term: Downgrade the previous overweight recommendation for stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight, and relatively recommend the allocation of TS and TF. Stock indices may enter a shock adjustment period, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by monetary tightening expectations [1] Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial**: Stock index futures, index options, and bond futures are expected to be in a shock state. Risk factors still exist, and attention should be paid to factors such as incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate. Inflation expectations suppress interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to US fundamental data, Fed policies, and geopolitical trends [4] - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European line in the second half of March stopped falling and rose, and the Middle East route is seeking alternative routes. The market is expected to be slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to geopolitical events and shipping traffic [4] - **Black Building Materials**: Affected by geopolitical risks, costs are rising. Most varieties are in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as mine production and policy dynamics [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Oil price fluctuations dominate the market, and most basic metals are in a wide - range shock. Some varieties such as aluminum and nickel are expected to be slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances and policy changes [4] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Geopolitical situations may lead to production cuts in oil - producing countries, and aromatics have a demand for price increases. Most varieties are expected to be in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and geopolitical events [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Geopolitical conflicts disrupt the market, and agricultural products fluctuate greatly. Most varieties are in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as geopolitical events, weather, and policies [5]

Core Views - The A-share market is currently characterized by "volatile differentiation and hot spot rotation," with rapid changes in market focus requiring investors to time their entries carefully to avoid blind chasing of trends [2][13][14] - The report suggests a strategy of "buying on dips" in sectors benefiting from price increases and geopolitical catalysts, such as oil and gas, as well as technology sectors with long-term growth potential like AI computing and semiconductors [2][14] Market Overview - Last Friday, the three major indices of the A-share market opened lower and experienced weak fluctuations, with the ChiNext index dropping over 1%. However, the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite indices staged a V-shaped recovery in the afternoon [4][5] - The market saw strong performance in small metal and energy metal sectors, while technology-related sectors like optical modules, PCBs, and semiconductors experienced corrections, highlighting the evident rotation effect [4][6] Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite index rose by 1.98% over the week, while the Shenzhen Composite and ChiNext indices increased by 2.80% and 1.05%, respectively. The market's initial positive momentum was attributed to returning capital and rising policy expectations post-holiday [6][7] - The cyclical sectors, including oil, coal, and non-ferrous metals, have been leading the market, driven by external catalysts such as the escalating US-Iran situation and internal price increase logic [6][7] Sector Analysis - **Cyclical Sectors**: The report emphasizes the potential for cyclical sectors like oil, coal, and non-ferrous metals to benefit from improving economic conditions and price recovery, suggesting early positioning before data validation [7][8] - **Rare Earth and Small Metals**: The rare earth sector is highlighted for its investment value due to concentrated supply and increasing demand in key industries such as electric vehicles and aerospace. The report recommends focusing on leading companies with resource advantages [8] - **Precious Metals**: The report notes significant price increases in precious metals driven by factors such as the onset of a Fed rate cut cycle and geopolitical tensions, advising caution against chasing high prices [9] - **Power Sector**: The power sector is expected to benefit from new energy policies and the growing demand for AI computing infrastructure, indicating a positive outlook for related stocks [10] - **Real Estate Sector**: The report discusses the potential for recovery in the real estate sector due to supportive government policies, suggesting that investors focus on companies with strong land reserves [10] - **Communication Sector**: The communication sector is recommended for attention due to the ongoing demand for AI and infrastructure upgrades, although caution is advised regarding high valuations in some sub-sectors [11] - **Semiconductor Sector**: The semiconductor sector is viewed positively due to the ongoing digital transformation and domestic policy support, with a focus on companies with strong performance indicators [12] Future Market Outlook - The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to influence short-term market trends, with anticipated policy clarity likely to support a continued upward trajectory in the A-share market [3][14] - Investors are advised to remain vigilant regarding external geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran situation, which could impact market sentiment [3][14]

Market Overview - The overall market saw an increase today, with the index returning to 3.8 stars [2] - All market caps (large, mid, and small) experienced gains, with small-cap stocks rising more significantly [3] - The low volatility index reached a high valuation after today's increase [3] - Value styles, including dividends, saw slight increases [4] - Growth styles, particularly in the ChiNext board, experienced more substantial gains [5] - Hong Kong stocks also rose overall, with gains similar to those in A-shares [6] Global Market Dynamics - From last Monday to Thursday, global stock and commodity markets experienced significant volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping by 4% [7] - Concerns about the uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve affected market sentiment [8] - However, on Friday, the Federal Reserve indicated expectations of a continued decrease in inflation later this year [9] - A reduction in the dollar's inflation rate is favorable for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] - This alleviated short-term liquidity concerns in the market [11] - Following this, global stock and commodity markets rebounded significantly on Friday night [12] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks also saw a catch-up rally after opening on Monday [13] Interest Rate Outlook - Since September 2024, the Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, leading to increased global liquidity and asset valuations [14] - Global stock markets have risen approximately 30%, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have surged by 50-60% [14] - The abundance of liquidity is likely to result in significant increases in smaller assets, such as small-cap stocks and smaller markets [14] - There may be intermittent phases of liquidity tightening, as seen in April 2025 and early February [15][16] - Current market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting rates into 2026 [17] - A significant amount of maturing deposits in RMB will occur in the first half of 2026, contributing to overall liquidity [18] - In the latter half of 2026, the focus will shift to the trends in dollar interest rates, as the Fed will not remain in a rate-cutting cycle indefinitely [19] Upcoming Events and Publications - This week marks the last week before the Spring Festival holiday, with specific arrangements for live classes and fund operations [20][21][22] - A live session is scheduled for February 10 to discuss investment strategies for year-end bonuses and suitable investment options [24] - The performance report for the "Screw Nut" investment advisory portfolio will be released, showing a cumulative profit of 2.72 billion yuan and a holder profit ratio exceeding 90% [26] - A new book titled "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" has been released, focusing on the growing interest in dividend index funds [26] Investment Insights - The "Screw Nut" investment advisory has developed a gold bull-bear signal board to assist investors in evaluating gold valuations [29] - A clear and objective reference can help investors remain calm and make informed decisions [30]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant adjustments due to increased external uncertainties, including the nomination of the next Federal Reserve Chairman affecting expectations for U.S. monetary easing and a global decline in commodity prices impacting market sentiment [1][3] Market Performance - The A-share market showed weak performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.5%. The market has been in a correction phase since January 13 due to high turnover rates and overheated sentiment. Major indices, including the CSI 300 and the ChiNext Index, also saw declines of 2.1% and 2.5% respectively, while the STAR Market Index dropped by 3.9% [2][3] External Factors - The adjustment in the A-share market is primarily attributed to external uncertainties, such as the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has altered market expectations for monetary policy. Walsh's previous hawkish stance has led to reduced expectations for a dovish shift in Fed policy, causing market volatility [3][4] - Additionally, a significant drop in global commodity prices has affected risk appetite and sentiment in equity markets. The price of gold, which had surged earlier, saw a decline of over 20% from its peak, contributing to a broader sell-off in commodities and impacting investor sentiment [3][4] Investment Strategy - The current market volatility presents opportunities for bottom-fishing investments. Despite the fluctuations, positive factors such as ample liquidity, improving earnings, and industry trends remain unchanged. The company suggests that the short-term volatility has begun to create opportunities for strategic investments [4][5] - In the medium term, the company emphasizes that the restructuring of international order and the resonance with China's industrial innovation trends are the core drivers of the current market rally and the revaluation of Chinese assets. These conditions are expected to continue supporting the performance of Chinese assets through 2026 [4][5] Sector Focus - The company recommends focusing on several sectors for investment: 1. Growth sectors such as AI technology, which is expected to enter an application phase by 2026, with opportunities in optical modules and cloud computing infrastructure [5] 2. Export-oriented sectors, including home appliances, engineering machinery, and gaming, which are seen as certain growth opportunities [5] 3. Cyclical sectors that are nearing improvement points in supply-demand dynamics, such as chemicals and renewable energy [5] 4. High-dividend quality stocks, which are expected to attract long-term capital due to their stable cash flows and dividend certainty [5]

Market Overview - As of November 28, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40% to 3888.6 points, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.64% to 4526.66 points. The SW Nonferrous Metals Industry Index saw a significant increase of 3.37% to 7396.64 points [1] - Within the nonferrous metals sector, the sub-industries of industrial metals, precious metals, minor metals, energy metals, and new metal materials experienced changes of 3.46%, 4.86%, 4.20%, 0.91%, and 4.49% respectively [1] Key Metal Price Data - Last week, the prices for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 87,430 CNY/ton, 21,610 CNY/ton, 22,425 CNY/ton, 17,090 CNY/ton, 117,080 CNY/ton, and 305,040 CNY/ton, with changes of 1.66%, 0.68%, -0.31%, -0.64%, 1.99%, and 4.19% respectively [2] - Gold and silver prices were reported at 953.92 CNY/gram and 12,727 CNY/kilogram, reflecting increases of 2.00% and 6.56% respectively [2] - Prices for praseodymium neodymium oxide, terbium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and sintered neodymium iron boron N35 were 568,000 CNY/ton, 6,505,000 CNY/ton, 1,470,000 CNY/ton, and 142.5 CNY/kilogram, with changes of 3.56%, -0.31%, -1.01%, and 3.64% respectively [2] - Battery-grade lithium carbonate, industrial-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium hydroxide, and Australian lithium concentrate were priced at 93,500 CNY/ton, 91,500 CNY/ton, 84,000 CNY/ton, and 1,000 USD/ton, with changes of 0.54%, 1.10%, 1.20%, and -8.26% respectively [2] - Domestic electrolytic cobalt, cobalt tetroxide, and cobalt sulfate prices were 405,500 CNY/ton, 347,500 CNY/ton, and 89,500 CNY/ton, with changes of 0.75%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [2] Investment Insights - Recent dovish comments from the New York Fed President Williams regarding increased risks of employment downturn and reduced inflation risks have led to a renewed expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with market probabilities exceeding 80% [3] - The ongoing rate cut cycle and liquidity pressures may continue to support rising prices for gold and silver [3] - Global copper production is expected to face significant uncertainty due to frequent accidents at major copper mines, leading to a downward revision of production forecasts [3] - Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, has proposed a substantial increase in the annual contract premium for refined copper to Chinese smelters, rising from 89 USD/ton in 2025 to 335-350 USD/ton in 2026, marking an increase of over 275% [3] - The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) has agreed to reduce copper concentrate production capacity by over 10% for 2026, aiming to improve the supply-demand balance [3] - Potential tariffs on copper by the U.S. and the ongoing liquidity expansion by the Federal Reserve are expected to further drive copper prices upward [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market declined last week and then rebounded, with an overall decline of 0.47%. The black sector led the decline, while precious metals and agricultural products rose. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as the possible end of the US government shutdown and mixed macro - economic indicators [1]. - Different commodity sectors, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, are expected to have short - term fluctuations based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - The commodity market fell 0.47% last week. The black sector dropped 2.62%, energy and chemicals fell 0.41% and 0.06% respectively, while precious metals and agricultural products rose 0.11% and 0.57% [1]. - Among specific varieties, rapeseed meal, pulp, and eggs had the highest increases of 6.32%, 3.49%, and 2.32% respectively, while asphalt, iron ore, and methanol had the largest declines of 6.04%, 4.94%, and 3.12% [1]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased, and the market scale increased by nearly 10 billion, with only the precious metals sector showing net capital outflows [1]. 2. Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: Officials' hawkish remarks and the uncertainty of the US government shutdown situation may keep the sector in high - level fluctuations in the short - term [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: With a neutral macro - environment and mixed fundamentals, the sector is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - **Black Metals**: With weakening demand, falling production, and increasing raw material pressure, the sector may continue to be supported by costs and fluctuate [2]. - **Energy**: The oversupply of crude oil and the impact of the US government shutdown on demand may lead to short - term oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Chemicals**: Cost support from coal and mixed demand expectations may result in short - term fluctuations and mid - term anti - arbitrage opportunities [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The reduction of US soybean tariffs and the weak rebound of palm oil may lead to different trends in different agricultural products, with some under pressure [3]. 3. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had negative weekly returns, with a total scale increase of 0.81%. Energy - chemical, soybean meal, non - ferrous metal, and silver ETFs also had different return and scale changes [35].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly lower, with non-metallic building materials leading the decline [1] 2. Asset Performance 2.1 Equity Index Futures - CSI 300 futures: Current price 4507.2, daily decline of 1.21%, weekly decline of 1.85%, monthly decline of 2.40%, quarterly decline of 2.40%, and annual increase of 14.95% [2] - SSE 50 futures: Current price 2958.4, daily decline of 0.11%, weekly decline of 0.58%, monthly decline of 1.02%, quarterly decline of 1.02%, and annual increase of 10.47% [2] - CSI 500 futures: Current price 7010, daily decline of 3.06%, weekly decline of 3.52%, monthly decline of 3.85%, quarterly decline of 3.85%, and annual increase of 23.13% [2] - CSI 1000 futures: Current price 7145.8, daily decline of 2.19%, weekly decline of 2.65%, monthly decline of 3.52%, quarterly decline of 3.52%, and annual increase of 22.18% [2] 2.2 Bond Futures - 2-year treasury bond futures: Current price 102.38, daily increase of 0.01%, weekly increase of 0.03%, monthly increase of 0.01%, quarterly increase of 0.01%, and annual decline of 0.57% [2] - 5-year treasury bond futures: Current price 105.78, daily increase of 0.09%, weekly increase of 0.12%, monthly increase of 0.14%, quarterly increase of 0.14%, and annual decline of 0.72% [2] - 10-year treasury bond futures: Current price 108.17, daily increase of 0.10%, weekly increase of 0.18%, monthly increase of 0.30%, quarterly increase of 0.30%, and annual decline of 0.69% [2] - 30-year treasury bond futures: Current price 114.76, daily increase of 0.28%, weekly increase of 0.69%, monthly increase of 0.76%, quarterly increase of 0.76%, and annual decline of 3.43% [2] 2.3 Foreign Exchange - US Dollar Index: Current price 99.26, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 0.44%, monthly increase of 1.47%, quarterly increase of 1.47%, and annual decline of 8.50% [2] - EUR/USD: Current price 1.157, daily unchanged, weekly decline of 53 pips, monthly decline of 164 pips, quarterly decline of 164 pips, and annual increase of 1217 pips [2] - USD/JPY: Current price 152.31, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 0.76%, monthly increase of 2.96%, quarterly increase of 2.96%, and annual decline of 3.11% [2] - USD mid-price: Current price 7.1021, daily increase of 14 pips, weekly decline of 27 pips, monthly decline of 34 pips, quarterly decline of 34 pips, and annual decline of 863 pips [2] 2.4 Interest Rates - 7-day interbank pledged repo rate: Current rate 1.46%, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 9 bp, monthly increase of 1 bp, quarterly increase of 1 bp, and annual decline of 29 bp [2] - 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield: Current rate 1.84%, daily increase of 1.8 bp, weekly decline of 0.8 bp, monthly decline of 2.2 bp, quarterly decline of 2.2 bp, and annual increase of 0.2 bp [2] - 10Y US treasury bond yield: Current rate 4.05%, daily decline of 9 bp, weekly unchanged, monthly increase of 0.01 bp, quarterly decline of 11 bp, and annual decline of 50 bp [2] - US 10Y-2Y yield spread: Current spread 0.53%, daily decline of 1 bp, quarterly increase of 0.03 bp, quarterly decline of 3 bp, and annual increase of 20 bp [2] - 10Y breakeven inflation rate: Current rate 2.3%, daily decline of 4 bp, monthly unchanged, quarterly decline of 0.05 bp, quarterly decline of 6 bp, and annual decline of 1 bp [2] 2.5 Metals - Gold: Current price 938.98, daily increase of 1.23%, monthly increase of 7.39%, quarterly increase of 7.39%, and annual increase of 52.04% [2] - Silver: Current price 11533, daily increase of 0.02%, monthly increase of 5.63%, quarterly increase of 5.63%, and annual increase of 54.39% [2] - Copper: Current price 84410, daily decline of 0.83%, monthly increase of 1.56%, quarterly increase of 1.56%, and annual increase of 14.42% [2] - Aluminum: Current price 20860, daily decline of 0.12%, monthly increase of 0.87%, quarterly increase of 0.87%, and annual increase of 5.46% [2] - Alumina: Current price 2805, daily decline of 0.53%, monthly decline of 2.20%, quarterly decline of 2.20%, and annual decline of 41.53% [2] - Zinc: Current price 22220, daily decline of 0.16%, monthly increase of 1.81%, quarterly increase of 1.81%, and annual decline of 12.73% [2] - Lead: Current price 120830, daily decline of 0.48%, monthly decline of 0.06%, quarterly decline of 0.06%, and annual decline of 3.14% [2] - Nickel: Current price 280430, daily decline of 0.60%, monthly increase of 1.95%, quarterly increase of 1.95%, and annual increase of 14.53% [2] - Stainless steel: Current price 8520, daily decline of 3.24%, monthly decline of 1.39%, quarterly decline of 1.39%, and annual decline of 22.44% [2] - Tin: Current price 280430, daily decline of 0.60%, monthly increase of 1.95%, quarterly increase of 1.95%, and annual increase of 14.53% [2] - Lithium carbonate: Current price 72680, daily increase of 0.55%, monthly decline of 0.16%, quarterly decline of 0.16%, and annual decline of 5.73% [2] - Industrial silicon: Current price 8520, daily decline of 3.24%, monthly decline of 1.39%, quarterly decline of 1.39%, and annual decline of 22.44% [2] - Rebar: Current price 3061, daily decline of 0.71%, monthly decline of 0.36%, quarterly decline of 0.36%, and annual decline of 7.49% [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Current price 3241, daily decline of 0.61%, monthly decline of 0.37%, quarterly decline of 0.37%, and annual decline of 5.18% [2] - Iron ore: Current price 782, daily decline of 2.80%, monthly increase of 0.19%, quarterly increase of 0.19%, and annual increase of 0.39% [2] - Coke: Current price 1654.5, daily increase of 0.73%, monthly increase of 1.94%, quarterly increase of 1.84%, and annual decline of 8.69% [2] - Coking coal: Current price 1153.5, daily increase of 0.65%, monthly increase of 2.44%, quarterly increase of 2.44%, and annual decline of 0.60% [2] - Ferrosilicon: Current price 5378, daily decline of 0.52%, monthly decline of 2.11%, quarterly decline of 2.11%, and annual decline of 14.03% [2] - Manganese silicon: Current price 5738, daily decline of 0.14%, monthly decline of 0.35%, quarterly decline of 0.35%, and annual decline of 5.78% [2] - Glass: Current price 1138, daily decline of 3.48%, monthly decline of 5.95%, quarterly decline of 5.95%, and annual decline of 14.24% [2] - Soda ash: Current price 1234, daily decline of 1.04%, monthly decline of 1.67%, quarterly decline of 1.67%, and annual decline of 13.89% [2] 2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Current price 448.6, daily decline of 1.12%, monthly decline of 6.48%, quarterly decline of 6.48%, and annual decline of 19.88% [2] - Fuel oil: Current price 2700, daily decline of 1.35%, monthly decline of 2.82%, quarterly decline of 5.82%, and annual decline of 18.82% [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Current price 3203, daily decline of 0.90%, monthly decline of 6.13%, quarterly decline of 6.13%, and annual decline of 20.02% [2] - Asphalt: Current price 3290, daily decline of 0.36%, monthly decline of 3.91%, quarterly decline of 3.91%, and annual decline of 10.82% [2] - Methanol: Current price 2274, daily decline of 2.90%, monthly decline of 2.32%, quarterly decline of 2.32%, and annual decline of 15.87% [2] - PX: Current price 6338, daily decline of 1.43%, monthly decline of 3.35%, quarterly decline of 3.35%, and annual decline of 9.35% [2] - PTA: Current price 4440, daily decline of 1.55%, monthly decline of 3.35%, quarterly decline of 3.35%, and annual decline of 9.24% [2] - Urea: Current price 1597, daily decline of 0.81%, monthly decline of 4.37%, quarterly decline of 4.37%, and annual decline of 6.44% [2] - Short fiber: Current price 6060, daily decline of 1.17%, monthly decline of 2.82%, quarterly decline of 2.82%, and annual decline of 11.22% [2] - Styrene: Current price 6544, daily decline of 2.18%, monthly decline of 4.26%, quarterly decline of 4.26%, and annual decline of 19.19% [2] - Ethylene glycol: Current price 4061, daily decline of 1.22%, monthly decline of 3.47%, quarterly decline of 3.47%, and annual decline of 16.20% [2] - PP: Current price 6602, daily decline of 1.36%, monthly decline of 3.65%, quarterly decline of 3.65%, and annual decline of 11.70% [2] - PVC: Current price 4692, daily decline of 0.61%, monthly decline of 3.04%, quarterly decline of 3.04%, and annual decline of 11.30% [2] - Caustic soda: Current price 2428, daily decline of 1.46%, monthly decline of 4.07%, quarterly decline of 4.07%, and annual decline of 16.48% [2] - Rubber: Current price 14845, daily decline of 0.64%, monthly decline of 1.23%, quarterly decline of 1.23%, and annual decline of 16.69% [2] - 20 rubber: Current price 106611, daily decline of 0.42%, monthly decline of 0.91%, quarterly decline of 0.91%, and annual decline of 19.61% [2] - Pulp: Current price 4846, daily increase of 0.08%, monthly increase of 0.25%, quarterly increase of 0.25%, and annual decline of 18.47% [2] 2.7 Agriculture - Soybean meal: Current price 2902, daily decline of 1.02%, monthly decline of 0.89%, quarterly decline of 0.89%, and annual increase of 7.64% [2] - Soybean oil: Current price 8240, daily decline of 0.34%, monthly increase of 1.23%, quarterly increase of 1.23%, and annual increase of 6.85% [2] - Palm oil: Current price 9330, daily decline of 0.36%, monthly increase of 1.11%, quarterly increase of 1.11%, and annual increase of 7.64% [2] - Rapeseed oil: Current price 8664, daily decline of 0.63%, monthly decline of 0.85%, quarterly decline of 0.85%, and annual decline of 2.57% [2] - Rapeseed meal: Current price 2348, daily decline of 1.84%, monthly decline of 3.02%, quarterly decline of 3.02%, and annual decline of 2.57% [2] - Cotton: Current price 13265, daily decline of 0.26%, monthly increase of 0.38%, quarterly increase of 0.38%, and annual decline of 1.70% [2] - Sugar: Current price 5397, daily decline of 1.33%, monthly decline of 1.75%, quarterly decline of 1.75%, and annual decline of 9.46% [2] - Live pigs: Current price 11450, daily increase of 2.92%, monthly decline of 7.32%, quarterly decline of 7.32%, and annual decline of 10.55% [2] - Eggs: Current price 2852, daily increase of 1.57%, monthly decline of 6.12%, quarterly decline of 6.12%, and annual decline of 15.62% [2] - Red dates: Current price 11110, daily decline of 0.18%, monthly increase of 2.68%, quarterly increase of 2.68%, and annual increase of 20.63% [2] - Apples: Current price 8664, daily increase of 0.30%, monthly increase of 0.55%, quarterly increase of 0.55%, and annual increase of 22.37% [2] - Peanuts: Current price 7864, daily decline of 0.48%, monthly increase of 1.29%, quarterly increase of 1.29%, and annual decline of 0.81% [2] - Corn: Current price 2093, daily increase of 0.05%, monthly decline of 2.33%, quarterly decline of 2.33%, and annual decline of 6.10% [2] 3. Macro Analysis 3.1 Overseas Macro - Focus on new tariff threats from Trump and marginal changes in the US government shutdown [5] - There is a risk of further escalation of conflicts before the APEC meeting at the end of October [5] - If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will weaken the "bad news is good news" logic and push up the recession risk [5] 3.2 Domestic Macro - China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies [5] - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held from October