资产概览：中东紧张局势推升贵金属/原油价格 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——大类资产配置全球跟踪 2026 年 3月第 1期 本报告导读： 2/13 至 2/27 期间，中东紧张局势推升贵金属和原油价格。权益中韩国综指领涨，其 年内涨幅已达 48.2%。人民币兑美元大幅升值，日元兑美元大幅贬值。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭佼佼(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031042 | | | guojiaojiao2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523070002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 春节旅游景气提升，科技和资源涨价 2026.02.28 外资延续流入，公募新发积极 2026.02.24 主动外资加速流入 A 股与港股 2026.02.10 成交活跃度下降，万得全 A 估值微跌 2026.02.08 科技资源景气延续，内需或迎景气拐点 2026.02.04 策 略 ...

| 张银 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018397 zhangyin023941@gtjas.com | | --- | | 目录 | | 1. 市场综述 3 | | 2. 市场数据 6 | | 2.1 市场概览 6 | | 2.2 玉米期权 7 | | 2.3 豆粕期权 7 | | 2.4 菜粕期权 8 | | 2.5 棕榈油期权 8 | | 2.6 豆油期权 9 | | 2.7 菜籽油期权 9 | | 2.8 花生期权 10 | | 2.9 黄大豆 1 号期权 10 | | 2.10 黄大豆 2 号期权 11 | | 2.11 乙二醇期权 11 | | 2.12 苯乙烯期权 12 | | 2.13 白糖期权 12 | | 2.14 棉花期权 13 | | 2.15 PTA 期权 13 | | 2.16 PX 期权 14 | | 2.17 烧碱期权 14 | | 2.18 橡胶期权 15 | | 2.19 BR 橡胶期权 15 | | 2.20 聚乙烯期权 16 | | 2.21 聚丙烯期权 16 | | 2.22 甲醇期权 17 | | 2.23 液化石油气期权 17 | | 2.24 PVC 期权 18 | ...

2月3日，A股三大指数集体走强，截止收盘，沪指涨1.29%，收报4067.74点；深证成指涨2.19%，收报 14127.11点；创业板指涨1.86%，收报3324.89点。沪深京三市成交额25658亿，较昨日小幅缩量411亿。 行业板块呈现普涨态势，船舶制造、光伏设备、小金属、玻璃玻纤、工程机械、通信设备、航天航空板 块大涨，仅银行、保险、酿酒行业逆市下跌。 个股方面，上涨股票数量超过4800只，逾80只股票涨停。商业航天概念爆发，巨力索具、通宇通讯、神 剑股份、中超控股等多股涨停。太空光伏概念持续走强，国晟科技、金晶科技、泽润新能、海优新材封 涨停。化工板块表现活跃，红宝丽3天2板，万丰股份4连板。贵金属概念探底回升，湖南黄金7天6板。 AI应用概念反复活跃，浙文互联11天5板。 本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - The A-share market is expected to experience a short - term correction, while the mid - term performance depends on economic and policy efforts. A long - term and stable bull market also requires fundamental support [2][10] Summary by Directory 1. One - week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - **Next - week View**: The stock market faces short - term adjustment pressure. The recent sharp correction will calm the market, and the weakening PMI in January indicates that the domestic economic recovery is still full of twists and turns [10] - **This - week Key Events**: - On January 26, Premier Li Qiang held a symposium to listen to opinions on the "Government Work Report" [11] - On January 27, it was announced that the industrial enterprise profits in December 2025 increased by 5.3% year - on - year [12] - On January 29, Chinese leaders met with the British Prime Minister, and both sides agreed to develop a long - term and stable comprehensive strategic partnership [13][14] - On January 29, the State Council issued a plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [15] - On January 30, it was reported that in December 2025, China had a goods trade surplus of 853.3 billion yuan and a service trade deficit of 96.6 billion yuan [16] 2. One - week Market Quotes Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From January 26 to January 30, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 0.65%, with emerging markets (+1.80%) > developed markets (+0.50%) > frontier markets (-0.13%). The South Korean stock market rose 8.0%, while the Canadian stock market fell 2.03% [17] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From January 26 to January 30, Chinese equities declined. In terms of different markets, Hong Kong stocks > A - shares > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3.0636 trillion yuan, a decrease of 264.4 billion yuan compared with last week. Most of the A - share broad - based indexes fell, with the Shanghai 50 Index rising 1.13% and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index falling 3.59% [20] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most of the global GICS primary industries rose this week, with the energy industry leading (+4.16%) and the optional consumption industry having the largest decline (-1.33%). In the Chinese market, the energy industry had the largest increase (+6.42%), and the optional consumption industry lagged (-4.21%) [23] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries**: Among the A - share CITIC primary industries, 10 rose (20 last week) and 20 fell (10 last week). The petroleum and petrochemical industry had the largest increase (+6.92%), and the national defense and military industry had the largest decline (-7.60%) [24] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles**: The large - cap value style outperformed this week [29] - **Overview of Index Futures Basis**: Information about the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months is provided [30][33] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast - **Broad - based Index Valuation**: The report provides the PE and PB of various broad - based indexes this week, their eight - year percentile, and the changes compared with the beginning of the year [40] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: The report provides the PE and PB of various primary industries this week, their eight - year percentile, and the changes compared with the beginning of the year [41] - **Broad - based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300 decreased slightly this week, while the ERP of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 increased slightly [42][47] - **Consensus Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - based Indexes**: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was raised to 8.35%, and in 2026 to 9.63%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 500 in 2025 was lowered to 25.66%, and in 2026 was raised to 23.00%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was lowered to 27.37%, and in 2026 was raised to 24.03% [48] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the 10 - year Treasury yield declined, the 1 - year yield rose, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 97.1, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.96 [57] - **Trading - type Capital Tracking**: The average daily trading volume of northbound funds increased by 50.6 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 14.7 billion yuan [56] - **Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs**: The share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 51.8 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 51.8 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 13.2 billion shares, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 3.2 billion shares [61][65] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data - **Supply Side**: The tire operating rate recovered after the Spring Festival [67] - **Consumption Side**: The second - hand housing transactions increased seasonally [73] - **Inflation Observation**: The prices of production materials declined, while the prices of agricultural products rebounded [83]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market collectively declined, with the ChiNext index dropping over 2% at one point. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.79% [1] - Over 3,100 stocks in the market experienced declines, with total trading volume reaching 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 694 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The chemical sector showed strong performance, while precious metals continued their upward trend, and the real estate sector was active. Conversely, sectors such as computing hardware and commercial aerospace saw significant declines [1] - The average stock price across the A-share market recorded its second bearish signal for 2026, indicating a cooling trend [3] External Influences - Concerns from the U.S. stock market, particularly due to negative sentiment stemming from news related to Japan and Greenland, affected the Asia-Pacific markets [4] - Japan's Prime Minister announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives for elections, leading to a sell-off in long-term Japanese government bonds and rising yields [5] - The impending U.S. tariffs on Greenland are contributing to increasing trade tensions, which may impact demand for U.S. assets and accelerate declines in global bond prices [5] A-share Market Dynamics - The financing buy-in amount for A-shares dropped to 267.4 billion yuan on January 19, down 20.35% from the previous Friday and 40.68% from the peak of 450.8 billion yuan on January 14 [6] - There has been a significant outflow of funds from stock ETFs, with over 400 billion yuan net outflow recorded, marking the third consecutive day of substantial outflows [8] Stock Trends - The market has seen a shift in trading dynamics, with a notable cooling in aggressive short-term trading styles. The number of consecutive daily limit-up stocks has decreased from six to three [9] - Technology stocks, particularly in computing hardware and AI applications, have generally retreated, while sectors like precious metals and chemicals have shown gains [9] Policy and Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued guidelines to promote zero-carbon factory construction, which is expected to support the green transformation and high-quality development of the chemical industry [11] - Analysts suggest that the Chinese chemical industry may experience a revaluation due to reduced capacity expansion, potentially leading to higher dividend yields and a shift from being a cash-consuming sector to a cash-generating one [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices close higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3959.62 points, up 0.47%, and a total trading volume of 7850.19 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13531.41 points, increasing by 0.33%, with a trading volume of 11395.04 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index ended at 3239.34 points, rising by 0.30%, with a trading volume of 5262.93 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The paper, electric machinery, and military equipment sectors led the gains, with paper up 4.75%, electric machinery up 3.22%, and military equipment up 3.14% [2] - The military electronics sector had the highest increase at 5.85%, with a trading volume of 2901.77 million hands and a net inflow of 18.68 billion yuan [2] - Conversely, sectors such as energy metals and small metals experienced declines, with the energy sector down 1.44% and small metals down 0.62% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed mixed performance in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index experienced declines of 0.11% and 0.37%, respectively [1] Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3952.50 points, reflecting a gain of 0.29% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index was reported at 13472.22 points, down by 0.11% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3217.47 points, showing a decrease of 0.37% [1] Sector Performance - The leading sectors in terms of gains included: - Paper industry with a rise of 5.06%, total trading volume of 1179.55 million hands, and a net inflow of 3.45 billion [2] - Military electronics increased by 2.66%, with a trading volume of 1988.45 million hands and a net inflow of 16.78 billion [2] - Main industrial aggregates rose by 2.53%, with a total trading volume of 1925.20 million hands and a net inflow of 30.38 billion [2] - Electric machinery gained 2.45%, with a trading volume of 427.63 million hands and a net inflow of 5.43 billion [2] - Insurance sector increased by 2.30%, with a trading volume of 151.56 million hands and a net inflow of 8.18 billion [2] - The sectors that faced declines included: - Energy metals decreased by 2.68%, with a trading volume of 228.14 million hands and a net outflow of 19.82 billion [2] - Precious metals fell by 2.67%, with a trading volume of 309.80 million hands and a net outflow of 9.64 billion [2] - Small metals dropped by 1.13%, with a trading volume of 635.51 million hands and a net outflow of 8.07 billion [2] - Industrial metals declined by 1.07%, with a trading volume of 1719.83 million hands and a net outflow of 17.05 billion [2]

Market Overview - As of November 28, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40% to 3888.6 points, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.64% to 4526.66 points. The SW Nonferrous Metals Industry Index saw a significant increase of 3.37% to 7396.64 points [1] - Within the nonferrous metals sector, the sub-industries of industrial metals, precious metals, minor metals, energy metals, and new metal materials experienced changes of 3.46%, 4.86%, 4.20%, 0.91%, and 4.49% respectively [1] Key Metal Price Data - Last week, the prices for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 87,430 CNY/ton, 21,610 CNY/ton, 22,425 CNY/ton, 17,090 CNY/ton, 117,080 CNY/ton, and 305,040 CNY/ton, with changes of 1.66%, 0.68%, -0.31%, -0.64%, 1.99%, and 4.19% respectively [2] - Gold and silver prices were reported at 953.92 CNY/gram and 12,727 CNY/kilogram, reflecting increases of 2.00% and 6.56% respectively [2] - Prices for praseodymium neodymium oxide, terbium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and sintered neodymium iron boron N35 were 568,000 CNY/ton, 6,505,000 CNY/ton, 1,470,000 CNY/ton, and 142.5 CNY/kilogram, with changes of 3.56%, -0.31%, -1.01%, and 3.64% respectively [2] - Battery-grade lithium carbonate, industrial-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium hydroxide, and Australian lithium concentrate were priced at 93,500 CNY/ton, 91,500 CNY/ton, 84,000 CNY/ton, and 1,000 USD/ton, with changes of 0.54%, 1.10%, 1.20%, and -8.26% respectively [2] - Domestic electrolytic cobalt, cobalt tetroxide, and cobalt sulfate prices were 405,500 CNY/ton, 347,500 CNY/ton, and 89,500 CNY/ton, with changes of 0.75%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [2] Investment Insights - Recent dovish comments from the New York Fed President Williams regarding increased risks of employment downturn and reduced inflation risks have led to a renewed expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with market probabilities exceeding 80% [3] - The ongoing rate cut cycle and liquidity pressures may continue to support rising prices for gold and silver [3] - Global copper production is expected to face significant uncertainty due to frequent accidents at major copper mines, leading to a downward revision of production forecasts [3] - Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, has proposed a substantial increase in the annual contract premium for refined copper to Chinese smelters, rising from 89 USD/ton in 2025 to 335-350 USD/ton in 2026, marking an increase of over 275% [3] - The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) has agreed to reduce copper concentrate production capacity by over 10% for 2026, aiming to improve the supply-demand balance [3] - Potential tariffs on copper by the U.S. and the ongoing liquidity expansion by the Federal Reserve are expected to further drive copper prices upward [3]

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in stocks, bonds, and gold have been observed, indicating a liquidity crisis that is relatively rare when all asset classes decline simultaneously [4][7][18] - The liquidity crisis is primarily driven by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly the potential for a rate cut in December [8][9][14] - The U.S. national debt has reached $38.33 trillion, with interest payments projected to exceed $870 billion in 2024, raising concerns about the dollar's stability and the high yield on 10-year Treasury bonds [11][12] Group 2 - The uncertainty regarding the timing of future rate cuts may lead to prolonged periods of market volatility, with potential intervals of several months between cuts [13][14] - Historically, liquidity crises occur every 3-5 years, with notable instances during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and significant rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [17][21] - During periods of liquidity tightness, investors tend to sell long-term risk assets, leading to increased correlation among different asset classes [18][22] Group 3 - To navigate the current market volatility, investors should assess their holdings for undervalued assets and ensure that the underlying companies are still profitable [24][25] - Short-term fluctuations may present opportunities to invest in undervalued assets, as seen during previous market downturns [27][29] - Suitable investment options currently include undervalued index funds, actively managed portfolios, and fixed-income plus products that incorporate a small amount of equities [30][32]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) showing strong performance and attracting significant capital inflow, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) saw an increase of over 1.95%, currently up 1.72%, and has recovered above the 10-day moving average [1]. - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has attracted 233 million yuan in capital, reflecting strong investor interest [1]. - As of November 27, the ETF's latest scale is 672 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Major stocks contributing to the ETF's performance include Shengxin Lithium Energy and Guocheng Mining, both rising over 7%, with Yahua Group close to 6% [3]. - Other notable stocks include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, both increasing by over 1% [3]. Group 3: Market Drivers - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials and delayed economic data have bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from about 40% to over 80% [3]. - The price of gold on COMEX has surpassed 4200 USD/oz, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The current non-ferrous metal bull market is characterized as a "new quality productivity bull market," driven by demand from emerging sectors such as new energy, AI, and aerospace, alongside supply-side disruptions [5]. - Policy support includes a joint plan from eight departments to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, emphasizing resource security and digital upgrades [5]. - Analysts predict a new cycle of supply-demand balance in the non-ferrous metal sector, with potential for further market advancements by 2026 [5]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) provides comprehensive coverage across various metals, making it a suitable option for investors looking to diversify their exposure to the sector [6].