行业要闻： 投资观点： 本文由投资顾问 ： 何威 ——A1290622100002 撰写 "分享的题材方向和题材的研报，旨在为您梳理选股方向，您可以加自选关注，但是不构成投资建议， 不作为买卖依据，您应当基于审慎原则自行参考，如据此操作，风险自担！" 市场行情回顾：截止到11月28日周五收市：上周上证指数1.40%，报3888.6点；沪深300指数1.64%，报 4526.66点；SW有色金属行业指数3.37%，报7396.64点。分子行业来看，上周有色金属行业5个二级子 行业中，工业金属、贵金属、小金属、能源金属、金属新材料较上周变动幅度分别为3.46%、4.86%、 4.20%、0.91%、4.49%。 参考文献：银河证券 华立 孙雪琪 2025-12-02 有色金属行业周报：美联储降息预期再升温，矿冶博弈刺 激铜价上涨 重点金属价格数据：上周上期所铜、铝、锌、铅、镍、锡分别收于87,430元/吨、21,610元/吨、22,425 元/吨、17,090元/吨、117,080元/吨、305,040元/吨，较上周变动幅度分别为1.66%、 0.68%、-0.31%、-0.64%、1.99%、4.19%。上周上 ...

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in stocks, bonds, and gold have been observed, indicating a liquidity crisis that is relatively rare when all asset classes decline simultaneously [4][7][18] - The liquidity crisis is primarily driven by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly the potential for a rate cut in December [8][9][14] - The U.S. national debt has reached $38.33 trillion, with interest payments projected to exceed $870 billion in 2024, raising concerns about the dollar's stability and the high yield on 10-year Treasury bonds [11][12] Group 2 - The uncertainty regarding the timing of future rate cuts may lead to prolonged periods of market volatility, with potential intervals of several months between cuts [13][14] - Historically, liquidity crises occur every 3-5 years, with notable instances during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and significant rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [17][21] - During periods of liquidity tightness, investors tend to sell long-term risk assets, leading to increased correlation among different asset classes [18][22] Group 3 - To navigate the current market volatility, investors should assess their holdings for undervalued assets and ensure that the underlying companies are still profitable [24][25] - Short-term fluctuations may present opportunities to invest in undervalued assets, as seen during previous market downturns [27][29] - Suitable investment options currently include undervalued index funds, actively managed portfolios, and fixed-income plus products that incorporate a small amount of equities [30][32]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) showing strong performance and attracting significant capital inflow, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) saw an increase of over 1.95%, currently up 1.72%, and has recovered above the 10-day moving average [1]. - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has attracted 233 million yuan in capital, reflecting strong investor interest [1]. - As of November 27, the ETF's latest scale is 672 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Major stocks contributing to the ETF's performance include Shengxin Lithium Energy and Guocheng Mining, both rising over 7%, with Yahua Group close to 6% [3]. - Other notable stocks include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, both increasing by over 1% [3]. Group 3: Market Drivers - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials and delayed economic data have bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from about 40% to over 80% [3]. - The price of gold on COMEX has surpassed 4200 USD/oz, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The current non-ferrous metal bull market is characterized as a "new quality productivity bull market," driven by demand from emerging sectors such as new energy, AI, and aerospace, alongside supply-side disruptions [5]. - Policy support includes a joint plan from eight departments to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, emphasizing resource security and digital upgrades [5]. - Analysts predict a new cycle of supply-demand balance in the non-ferrous metal sector, with potential for further market advancements by 2026 [5]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) provides comprehensive coverage across various metals, making it a suitable option for investors looking to diversify their exposure to the sector [6].

Core Insights - The overall performance of listed companies in China has shown continuous improvement, with a total revenue of 53.46 trillion yuan and a net profit of 4.70 trillion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 1.36% and 5.50% respectively [1][2] - The technology and innovation sectors, particularly in advanced manufacturing, have demonstrated significant growth, with many companies reporting revenue and profit increases exceeding 10% and 20% respectively [2] Financial Performance - A total of 5,446 listed companies have disclosed their Q3 2025 reports, with 4,183 companies reporting profits, indicating a profitability rate of nearly 80% [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue and net profit growth rates reached 3.82% and 11.45% year-on-year, with a positive trend observed quarter-on-quarter [1] Sector Performance - The technology sector, including the STAR Market, ChiNext, and Beijing Stock Exchange, has outperformed, with revenue and net profit growth rates exceeding 10% for ChiNext [1][2] - The electronics industry has surpassed the banking sector in total market capitalization, marking a significant shift in industry dynamics [1] Innovation and R&D Investment - Listed companies have increased their R&D spending to a total of 1.16 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.88%, with a research intensity of 2.16% [2] - The STAR Market and ChiNext have particularly high R&D intensities of 11.22% and 4.54% respectively, indicating a strong focus on innovation [2] Shareholder Returns - As of the end of October, 1,033 companies have announced cash dividend plans, with 38 companies conducting multiple dividend distributions [2] - A total of 1,195 companies have released 1,525 share repurchase plans for 2025, with 899 completed, amounting to a total repurchase value of 92.3 billion yuan [2]

Core Insights - The overall performance of listed companies in China shows continuous improvement, with significant contributions from the technology and innovation sectors [1][2] - The third quarter of 2025 saw notable increases in revenue and net profit, indicating a positive trend in corporate earnings [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, listed companies achieved a total revenue of 53.46 trillion yuan and a net profit of 4.70 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 1.36% and 5.50% respectively [1] - Approximately 4183 companies reported profits, with nearly 80% of companies being profitable; 2467 companies experienced positive net profit growth [1] - The third quarter alone saw revenue and net profit growth rates of 3.82% and 11.45% year-on-year, with a sequential upward trend [1] Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly in the fields of storage chips, all-solid-state batteries, and new energy vehicles, demonstrated significant growth, with revenue and net profit increases exceeding 10% and 20% respectively [2] - The electronic industry surpassed the banking sector in total market capitalization, becoming the largest industry, while the telecommunications and computer sectors saw market value increases of over 900 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [1][2] Innovation and R&D Investment - Listed companies increased their R&D spending to a total of 1.16 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.88% and an R&D intensity of 2.16% [2] - The R&D intensity for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market reached 11.22% and 4.54% respectively, indicating a strong focus on innovation [2] Shareholder Returns - By the end of October, 1033 companies announced cash dividend plans, with 38 companies conducting multiple dividend distributions [2] - A total of 1195 companies issued 1525 share repurchase plans for 2025, with 899 completed, amounting to a total repurchase value of 923 billion yuan [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights that amidst escalating external uncertainties due to ongoing US-China trade tensions, industries with significantly improved profit expectations for Q3 are seen as higher certainty investment directions in the A-share market [1][5][14] - Key industries with notable upward adjustments in profit expectations include non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, comprehensive sectors, pharmaceutical biology, public utilities, and banking [5][15] - The report indicates that from September 1, 2025, to October 12, 2025, the profit expectation adjustment ratios for banking, comprehensive sectors, non-bank financials, and retail trade are 52.8%, 50.0%, 46.0%, and 42.1% respectively [5][15] Industry Summaries - **Primary Industry Adjustments**: The report notes that the overall profit expectation adjustments for the first-level industries are as follows: non-ferrous metals (1.5%), non-bank financials (1.4%), comprehensive sectors (0.5%), pharmaceutical biology (0.2%), public utilities (0.2%), and banking (0.1%) [5][15] - **Secondary Industry Highlights**: Within the second-level industries, significant upward adjustments in profit expectations are observed in marine equipment II (4.7%), biological products (3.5%), agricultural product processing (2.7%), securities II (2.5%), industrial metals (2.2%), and precious metals (2.1%) [6][21] - **Recent Performance Trends**: The report identifies that in the past two quarters, revenue and gross margins have consistently improved in industries such as rare earth magnetic materials, fiberglass and products II, cement and concrete, fine chemicals and new materials, and other metals and materials II [6][25] - **TMT Sector Growth**: The TMT sector shows significant profit growth, with quarterly profit growth rates for computing, telecommunications, and electronics in Q2 2025 at 685.5%, 64.5%, and 49.3% respectively [6][28] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a revaluation trend for Chinese assets, suggesting that even if there are short-term fluctuations due to rapid market increases, the long-term positive trend remains intact, with expectations of a "slow bull" market [7][29] - Investment directions include a focus on technology growth areas such as AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, and military industries, while also paying attention to sectors benefiting from supply-demand improvements like metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming [7][29][30] - The report emphasizes that the fundamental factors will ultimately determine market trends, with expectations for the real estate market to stabilize and the effects of "anti-involution" policies to become evident, supporting a sustained upward trajectory for the A-share market [31]

Core Insights - Market fluctuations often signal new changes and shifts in focus, with short-term trends not being the core issue [1][2] - Recent export controls and licensing systems are aimed at both protecting national interests and enhancing pricing power, which may benefit leading companies with compliance capabilities and global operational experience [1][8] Industry Analysis - The capital expenditure growth in non-tech sectors globally has been persistently low, with significant divergence between tech and non-tech companies [3] - In China, traditional industrial sectors are experiencing a slowdown in capital expenditure growth, with only a few sectors like coal, electricity, and transportation maintaining positive growth [4] - Many traditional industries have stabilized or even improved their input-output ratios, indicating resilience among leading firms despite macroeconomic challenges [5][7] - Current valuation levels in traditional manufacturing sectors are not high, with many industries at relative bottoms in terms of return on investment [6][7] Export Controls and Market Dynamics - Recent export controls on lithium batteries, rare earths, and other materials are part of a strategy to enhance domestic production and pricing power while clearing out outdated capacities [8] - The introduction of export licensing for electric vehicles marks a shift towards prioritizing quality over quantity in exports, potentially benefiting domestic firms [8] Investment Focus - The current investment strategy emphasizes upstream resource sectors and traditional manufacturing, with a focus on balancing short-term profit realization, mid-term recovery, and long-term narratives [9] - Industries with significant global supply influence, such as cobalt, rare earths, and phosphates, are recommended for attention due to their potential for pricing power and profit generation [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of various ETFs and indices on October 2, with Brent crude oil prices declining by 1.91% and several other ETFs, including real estate, agricultural, and gold, also experiencing declines ranging from 0.35% to 0.52% [1] - The S&P 500 ETF, dollar index, and Dow Jones ETF showed slight increases, ranging from 0.12% to 0.18%, indicating a mixed market sentiment [1] - Long-term U.S. Treasury ETFs rose by 0.29%, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF and emerging market ETFs saw increases of at least 0.41%, suggesting a preference for growth-oriented investments [1] Group 2 - The Russell 2000 index ETF and soybean funds experienced gains of at least 0.63%, reflecting positive sentiment in small-cap stocks and agricultural commodities [1] - The overall market showed a divergence in performance, with some sectors like energy and real estate underperforming while others like technology and small caps gained traction [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight increase of 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.34% during the morning session [1] - Nearly 2000 stocks in the market saw an increase, with a total trading volume of 1.88 trillion yuan in the morning [1] Sector Performance - The battery sector showed strong performance, with companies like Xian Dao Intelligent and Hangke Technology hitting the daily limit of 20% increase, while Guoxuan High-Tech and Putailai also reached the daily limit, and Ningde Times increased by over 11% [1] - The liquor sector was active, with Kweichow Moutai hitting the daily limit [1] - Other sectors that performed well included insurance, precious metals, beauty care, tourism and hotels, non-ferrous metals, automotive, and CRO concepts [1] - Conversely, sectors that faced declines included semiconductors, education, communication equipment, consumer electronics, wind power, F5G, computing power, and AI chip concepts [1]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after an initial decline, with significant performance in the pharmaceutical, communication equipment, aerospace, and semiconductor sectors, while insurance, banking, agriculture, and precious metals lagged behind [2][3][7]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently at 14.78 times and 41.32 times, respectively, which are at the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][16]. - The market is characterized by a dual driving force of policy and capital, with a gradual upward trend established despite short-term technical adjustment pressures [3][16]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On July 29, the A-share market showed a pattern of initial decline followed by a slight recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3587 points and closing at 3609.71 points, up 0.33% [7][8]. - The total trading volume for both markets was 18,296 billion, slightly lower than the previous trading day [7][16]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on technology growth and cyclical manufacturing as the main investment themes, while also keeping an eye on high-dividend banks, public utilities, and strategic emerging industries [3][16]. - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the pharmaceutical, communication equipment, aerospace, and semiconductor sectors [3][16].