碳酸锂市场强势突破，供应扰动与成本支撑 博弈 --碳酸锂周报2025年12月8日-12月12日 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 预计未来1-2周， | | | 【现货市场】：电池级碳酸锂现货价格周内上涨5.1%至95750元/吨，工业级上涨 | 碳酸锂价格将在 | | | 5.24%至94350元/吨，市场情绪随期货波动。基差维持贴水结构，周环比扩大 | 高位宽幅震荡， | | | 85.85%至-1970元/吨，显示期货涨幅领先于现货。 | 上方10万元整数 | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度上涨6.03%，收于97720元/吨，周内振幅达11.5%， | 关口压力显著， | | | 波动剧烈。持仓量周环比增加13.5%至63.6万手，显示多空分歧加剧，资金博弈激 | 下方支撑参考 | | | 烈。 | 95000-97000元/ | | | 【供应方面】：国内碳酸锂产能利用率环比大幅提升10.86%至 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing mixed performance, with lithium carbonate futures slightly declining by 1.24% to 92,160.0 CNY/ton [1] - Supply side analysis shows a weekly production increase of 74 tons to 21,939 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 120 tons to 13,484 tons, while lithium salt lake production decreased by 145 tons to 3,090 tons [1] - Demand side insights reveal a divergence in expectations for December, with a slight reduction in production for lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries, indicating a need to monitor weekly inventory depletion for demand performance validation [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the lithium carbonate market suggests intensified supply-demand dynamics due to the resumption of production by Ningde, with expectations for increased price volatility [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the current price is facing short-term pressure around the 100,000 CNY/ton mark, with strong profit-taking motivation from bulls, necessitating caution against high-risk chasing [2] - Overall, the market is advised to be cautious of potential short-term price corrections amid active trading and increased capital divergence [2]