碳酸锂市场强势突破，供应扰动与需求预期 博弈加剧 --碳酸锂周报2026年01月19日-01月23日 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 预计未来1-2周， | | | | 市场在亢奋情绪 | | | | 与基本面背离的 | | | | 矛盾下，高位震 | | | 【现货市场】：电池级碳酸锂现货价格周环比上涨8.16%至169,000元/吨，市场情 | 荡加剧，存在技 | | | 绪亢奋，但基差大幅走弱至-12,520元/吨（环比-224.58%），显示期货涨幅远超 | | | | | 术性回调压力。 | | | 现货。 | 风险提示： | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约收盘价周环比大涨24.16%至181,520元/吨，持仓量增至 | | | | 438,728手（周增5.43%），价格连续突破关键阻力位，波动率显著抬升。 | 1.政策预期落空 | | | 【供应方面】：碳酸锂产能利用率维持87.14%高位，但 ...

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电、封面：图虫创意 行情变化： 1月2 7 日， ICC电池级碳酸锂（99.5%）现货结算指导价格为 1 66500 元 /吨 ，较上一工作日 下 跌 2000 元 ；电池级氢氧化锂（ 56.5%粗颗粒）结算指导价格为 1 62000 元 /吨 ，较上一 工作日 持平 。 期货方面，碳酸锂期货主力合约延续调整，午后拉升，主力合约价格收盘 179600 元 /吨 ，较上一工 作日 上涨 13920 元 /吨 。 ICC锂电结算指导价： | 品名 | 1月26日 | 1月27日 | 环比上涨 上月均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 锂精矿 (6.0%) | 2210 | 2210 | | 1249 | | 电池级碳酸锂 | 16. 85 | 16. 65 | -0.2 | 10. 2 | | (99.5%/旌石) | | | | | | 氢氧化锂 | 16. 2 | 16. 2 | - | 8.58 | | (56.5%粗颗粒) | | | | | | 磷酸铁锂 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (from December 19 to December 26, 2025), the spot price of lithium carbonate rose significantly, with the benchmark spot price reaching 120,400 yuan/ton on December 26, a 16.89% increase from December 19. The main contract of lithium carbonate in the futures market fluctuated downward, with the latest transaction price at 130,520 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 17.16%. The current position of the main - month contract is about 577,000 lots [11]. - The supply of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. The operating rate of domestic lithium salt plants remained high, the new capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction continued to be released, and the new capacity was still ramping up. The import volume of overseas raw materials increased year - on - year, but there was a shipping cycle [11]. - The overall downstream demand scheduling remained high. The demand in the energy storage field was strong. Although some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers started production line maintenance, the overall level was still high. The power battery entered the seasonal off - season, and the scheduling plan decreased month - on - month. Downstream material manufacturers were generally cautious, and their purchases were mainly for just - in - time replenishment [11]. - The price of lithium concentrate was supported by the sharp rise in the lithium carbonate futures price and remained high, providing rigid support for the cost side. The costs of self - owned mines and salt lakes remained stable. Against the background of high lithium carbonate spot and futures prices, the profits of enterprises with self - owned mines and salt lakes were the most substantial, and the profits of processing enterprises that purchased raw materials externally also improved compared with the previous period. The overall industry profit remained at a relatively high level [11]. - The total social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline, but the speed slowed down. Due to the high price, the downstream's willingness to receive goods weakened. The inventory of lithium salt plants decreased significantly, and most of the social inventory was transferred and concentrated in the trading sector. The futures warehouse receipt volume was at the level of 17,100 tons [11]. - Currently, the lithium carbonate market is in a stage of intense game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The optimistic expectation of energy storage demand and the continuous decline of industry inventory support the price. The enthusiasm of funds in the futures market is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of the futures price callback driving the sharp fluctuation of the spot market. The unilateral strategy can consider going long on LC2605 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 120,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, or buying call options [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Hot News 3.1.1 Hot News - On December 25, Wanrun New Energy announced that starting from December 28, 2025, the company would reduce production and conduct maintenance on some production lines as planned for about one month. This maintenance was expected to reduce the company's lithium iron phosphate output by 5,000 - 20,000 tons and have no significant impact on the company's production and operation [8]. - On December 24, relevant media reported that according to people close to CATL, the lithium mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. in the Zhenkouli of Yifeng County - Jianxiawo of Fengxin County was expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [8]. - The Yichun Tendering Network in Jiangxi Province released the first environmental impact assessment information of the lithium mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. in the Zhenkouli of Yifeng County - Jianxiawo of Fengxin County [8]. - On December 16, the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau planned to cancel the mining licenses of 27 projects such as the Wuqiao porcelain stone mine in Gao'an City. The bureau had publicized the 27 mining licenses to be cancelled, and they would be officially cancelled after the 30 - working - day publicity period [8]. - The lithium iron phosphate industry was experiencing a collective price increase. Many leading enterprises had sent clear price - increase notices to customers. A staff member of Longpan Technology said that there was indeed a price - increase trend in the industry, and the company was communicating with customers about the price increase [8]. - The lithium iron phosphate industry was promoting anti - involution. The China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association would issue a notice, suggesting that enterprises should use the industry's average cost range disclosed on November 18 as an important reference for quotation and not engage in low - price dumping below the cost line. The association would disclose the industry's average cost range monthly starting from this month to provide an authoritative regulatory basis for enterprise quotations [8]. 3.1.2 Week - ly Viewpoints - **Market Review**: The spot price of lithium carbonate rose significantly, and the futures price fluctuated downward but still had a weekly increase. The position of the main - month contract was about 577,000 lots [11]. - **Supply**: The output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. Domestic lithium salt plants had a high operating rate, new salt - lake lithium extraction capacity was released, and overseas raw material imports increased year - on - year [11]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream demand scheduling remained high. Energy storage demand was strong, while power battery demand entered the off - season. Downstream material manufacturers were cautious in purchasing [11]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: The price of lithium concentrate remained high, supporting the cost side. The costs of self - owned mines and salt lakes were stable, and industry profits were at a high level. The total social inventory continued to decline, and the futures warehouse receipt volume was 17,100 tons [11]. - **Outlook**: The market was in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". Attention should be paid to the risk of futures price callback affecting the spot market [11]. - **Strategy**: Consider going long on LC2605 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 120,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, or buying call options [11]. 3.2 Industry Pattern The report shows the lithium industry chain, including upstream raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake brine, lithium recycling), lithium salt products (lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide), materials (ternary materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganate), lithium batteries (power - type lithium batteries, capacity - type lithium batteries), and terminal consumption (new energy vehicles, two - wheeled vehicles, 3C digital products, energy storage, glass ceramics, etc.). It also provides the global supply and demand proportions of each link [16]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Markets 3.3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract was 130,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 19,120 yuan or 17.16% from the previous period. - The trading volume of the active lithium carbonate contract was 428,716 lots, a decrease of 500,247 lots or 53.85% from the previous period. - The position of the active lithium carbonate contract was 577,035 lots, a decrease of 91,794 lots or 13.72% from the previous period. - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 17,861 lots, an increase of 2,350 lots or 15.15% from the previous period [22]. 3.3.2 Spot Market The report provides the spot price seasonal chart and historical price chart of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [25]. 3.4 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate was 109,557 tons, a decrease of 1,039 tons or 0.94% from the previous period. - The market inventory was 73,706 tons, a decrease of 2,614 tons or 3.43% from the previous period. - The factory inventory was 17,990 tons, a decrease of 775 tons or 4.13% from the previous period. - The registered warehouse receipt volume was 17,861 tons, an increase of 2,350 tons or 15.15% from the previous period [33]. 3.5 Cost and Profit The report provides charts of the comprehensive cost and comprehensive profit of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [38]. 3.6 Supply 3.6.1 Production, Capacity, and Import and Export The report provides charts of the monthly production, capacity, and capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate, as well as the net import volume of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [42]. 3.6.2 Major Project Tracking (Potential Capacity) In December 2025, multiple companies in different regions had new lithium carbonate production capacity projects, with a total new capacity of about 166,000 tons [43]. 3.6.3 Lithium Carbonate Import The report provides charts of the monthly import seasonality, annual cumulative imports of lithium carbonate, and the monthly import seasonality from Argentina and Chile, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [45][46]. 3.6.4 Lithium Carbonate Production from Different Raw Materials The report provides charts of the monthly production seasonality of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycled materials, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [55][57]. 3.6.5 Lithium Spodumene Import The report provides charts of the monthly import seasonality of lithium spodumene from Zimbabwe and Australia, as well as the monthly import volume and cumulative import volume, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [67][70]. 3.7 Demand 3.7.1 Overall Demand The report provides charts of the monthly consumption of lithium carbonate, monthly production of new energy vehicles, penetration rate of new energy vehicles, and monthly production seasonality of power batteries, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [80][82]. 3.7.2 Power Batteries The report provides charts of the monthly production, installation volume, export, and energy - storage situation of power batteries, as well as the installation - volume proportion of each vehicle type's power battery, and the monthly production and demand proportion of cathode materials, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [86][88]. 3.7.3 Production of Each Material The report provides charts of the production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium cobalt oxide, and lithium manganate, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text [96][98]. 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of lithium carbonate from 1995 to a certain period, including information on total supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, import and export volume, production from different sources, and production of downstream materials, as well as inventory data [105].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range and strong - side oscillatory trend this week. In the future, the driving logic of lithium carbonate futures prices will focus on factors such as the tightness of domestic lithium ore inventory, the resumption progress of Jianxiawo, the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises, and the production schedule of downstream in Q1. In the medium - to - long - term, the long - term value supported by the industry fundamentals remains unchanged. There are opportunities for long - position building on dips. It is recommended that investors focus on structural long - position opportunities after price corrections, anchor a reasonable valuation range based on fundamentals for batch layout, and avoid short - term volatility risks caused by blind chasing of highs [1][2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range and strong - side oscillatory trend this week. The future price of lithium carbonate futures is driven by factors including the tightness of domestic lithium ore inventory, the resumption progress of Jianxiawo, the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises, and the production schedule of downstream in Q1. The domestic available lithium concentrate inventory is still tight. The resumption progress of Jianxiawo is a key variable. If it exceeds market expectations, it will increase lithium salt supply and suppress prices. The demand side is strong, with overall market inventory continuously decreasing, especially significant drops in downstream inventory. In December, the production schedules of downstream cathode materials and power cells increased slightly month - on - month, and market demand remained strong. However, downstream enterprises' willingness to purchase high - priced lithium carbonate decreased during the price increase period, mainly consuming their own inventory. If subsequent rigid - demand restocking needs are gradually released, the spot basis is expected to strengthen. Technically, there is significant correction pressure [1]. - Near - end trading logic (before the end of 2025): includes the tightness of domestic lithium ore inventory, the resumption progress of Jianxiawo lithium ore, and the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises. Distant - end trading logic (after January 1, 2026): not elaborated in detail in this part [7][8]. 1.2 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - **Lithium carbonate futures price range**: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 85,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 45.9% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 78.0% [9]. - **Risk - management strategy recommendations for lithium - battery enterprises**: Different strategies are recommended for procurement management, sales management, and inventory management under different scenarios, including using futures contracts and option combination strategies, with corresponding recommended hedging ratios [9]. Chapter 2: Market Information - This week's main information includes: on December 15, the 2.4 million - ton/year mining construction project of Inner Mongolia Weilasituo Mining Co., Ltd.'s lithium - tin polymetallic ore was officially approved; on December 17, LG Energy Solution terminated a long - term battery supply contract with Ford Motor Company worth about 45.7 billion yuan; on December 18, the Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the EU are conducting consultations on the electric vehicle case; on December 19, the environmental impact assessment information of the Jianxiawo lithium ore mining project in Yichun was publicly announced [10]. Chapter 3: Futures and Price Data 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Futures trend**: This week, the lithium carbonate futures price showed an oscillatory and strengthening trend. The closing price of the weighted index contract on Friday was 111,307 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 14.28%; the trading volume was about 1.2015 million lots, with a week - on - week increase of 28.70%; the open interest was about 1.052 million lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 million lots. The LC2605 - LC2609 monthly spread showed a contango structure, with a week - on - week decrease of 720 yuan/ton; the number of warehouse receipts was 15,511 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 461 lots. In the short - term, the lithium carbonate price is in a strong - side operation, and in the long - term, it is still in an upward trend [11][12]. - **Option situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of lithium carbonate futures showed an oscillatory correction trend in the past week, indicating that the actual price fluctuation is still at a high level. The implied volatility of at - the - money options showed an oscillatory strengthening trend, indicating that market participants expect future price fluctuations to be large. The PCR of option open interest showed an upward trend, indicating increasing bearish sentiment in the market [15][16]. - **Capital movement**: The long - position scale showed an upward trend this week [18]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The current lithium carbonate futures contract distribution still shows an overall contango structure. The resumption of production in Ningde suppresses the near - term price, and the traditional off - season in Q1 and the maintenance of material factories are expected to weaken market demand and affect the near - term price. The long - term positive logic supports the far - term price, including the growth of the domestic energy - storage industry and the increase in the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles. In the medium - to - long - term, the support for far - term contracts will be stronger than that for near - term contracts, and the contango structure is likely to deepen [20]. - **CME lithium - spodumene and lithium - hydroxide futures**: Data on CME lithium - hydroxide futures are provided, showing price changes in different months [32]. - **LME lithium - hydroxide futures**: No specific content is provided. - **Basis structure**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated widely this week. Currently, the basis is at an extremely low level, and going long on the basis can be considered [37]. - **Spot price data**: The prices of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain showed different trends. For example, the prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, cathode materials, and electrolytes all had certain increases or decreases [39]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry - Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Recently, the demand for lithium - iron - phosphate batteries and ternary batteries has been strong, driving up the prosperity of the entire lithium - battery industry chain. The production start - up rates of upstream lithium - salt enterprises and downstream cathode - material enterprises are at high levels, and the profits of each link have improved marginally. However, the profit of lithium - carbonate production lines using externally purchased lithium ore has weakened marginally, as well as that of lithium - hydroxide production lines, mainly due to the shortage of available lithium - ore inventory and the higher increase in ore prices than in lithium - carbonate prices. Among cathode materials, the profit of lithium - iron - phosphate has a marginal strengthening trend, the profit of ternary materials has turned positive, and the profits of cobalt - acid lithium and manganese - acid lithium are in an oscillatory range but still positive. The profit of lithium hexafluorophosphate has increased significantly [40]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit - This week, the import profit of lithium carbonate showed a marginal upward trend due to market shipping - schedule time locks. The export profit of lithium hydroxide showed a marginal weakening trend [47]. Chapter 5: Fundamental Situation 5.1 Lithium Ore Supply - **Domestic mine output**: The report provides seasonal production data of sample pyroxene mines and lithium - mica mines in China [51]. - **Overseas mine imports**: Data on the import volume of lithium concentrate and lithium - spodumene from different countries are provided [53]. - **Lithium ore inventory**: The current available total inventory of lithium ore, the inventory of lithium - ore traders, and the inventory in domestic warehouses, as well as the port inventory, are presented. The available total inventory of lithium ore and the inventory of traders increased this week, while the inventory in warehouses decreased [54][55]. 5.2 Upstream Lithium - Salt Supply - **Lithium carbonate supply**: The total start - up rate of sample enterprises is 51.4%, with different start - up rates for lithium - spodumene, lithium - mica, salt - lake, and recycling production lines. The total production of sample enterprises is 22,045 tons, with different production volumes from different sources [57]. - **Lithium carbonate net export**: Seasonal data on lithium carbonate net export are provided [74]. - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate is 110,425 tons, with decreases in smelter and downstream inventories and an increase in other inventories. The inventory days also changed accordingly [75]. - **Lithium hydroxide supply**: Data on the monthly production of lithium hydroxide by different processes, including the total production, production at the smelting end, and production at the causticizing end, are provided [84]. 5.3 Mid - Stream Material Factory Supply - **Material factory output**: The weekly production data of battery - material factories, including the production and start - up rates of lithium - iron - phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, manganese - acid lithium, and lithium hexafluorophosphate, are provided. The production of lithium - iron - phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate increased, while that of ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium decreased [88]. - **Material factory inventory**: Seasonal inventory data of different materials in material factories are provided [101]. 5.4 Downstream Cell Supply - **China's power - cell production**: The weekly production of power cells is 29.34 GWh, with decreases in both iron - lithium - type and ternary - type power - cell production [102]. - **China's lithium - battery installation volume**: Seasonal data on China's total lithium - battery installation volume and the installation volume of power lithium - batteries by vehicle type are provided [106]. 5.5 New - Energy Vehicles - **New - energy vehicle production and sales**: Data on the production and sales of new - energy vehicles, including the production of Chinese new - energy vehicles, global sales by country, and the sales of new - energy passenger and commercial vehicles, are provided. The sales of domestic new - energy passenger vehicles increased this week, and the penetration rate also increased slightly [108][109][111]. - **Automobile inventory**: Seasonal data on the inventory - warning index of domestic automobile dealers are provided [121]. 5.6 Energy Storage - Data on the total winning - bid power scale and capacity scale of energy - storage projects, as well as the seasonal data of the total winning - bid capacity scale, are provided [123].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely at high levels. The pressure at the 100,000 - yuan integer mark is significant, and the support below is in the range of 95,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton. The market is in a high - level shock stage after a strong breakthrough. The core contradiction lies in the game between the supply side (with both increased capacity utilization and expected seasonal reduction in salt - lake lithium extraction) and the demand side (supported by strong demand for energy - storage cells but with marginal slowdown in cathode material production), as well as the cost support due to the deep - loss state of the entire industry [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot prices rose 5.1% to 95,750 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade rose 5.24% to 94,350 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 6.03% to 97,720 yuan/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 11.5%. The spot prices of different types of lithium hydroxide also increased, with the increase rates ranging from 3.11% to 3.53% [2][5] - **Basis Structure**: The basis maintained a contango structure, widening 85.85% week - on - week to - 1,970 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures price increase led the spot price [2] - **Futures Position**: The futures position increased 13.5% week - on - week to 636,000 lots, showing intensified divergence between long and short positions and fierce capital games [2] Lithium Salt Fundamentals - **Supply - China's Lithium Carbonate Production**: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate increased 10.86% to 83.52% week - on - week, and the total output in December is expected to increase 3% month - on - month. However, the expected seasonal production reduction in salt - lake lithium extraction and the 4.65% decline in lithium hydroxide capacity utilization offset each other [2] - **Supply - Output from Different Raw Material Sources**: Not provided in the content - **Import and Export - Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: For South Africa, the freight for bulk transportation remained unchanged at 26.00, and the freight for container transportation decreased 12.50% to 28.00. For Zimbabwe, the freight for both bulk and container transportation remained unchanged. For Nigeria, the freight for bulk transportation was unchanged, and the container freight increased 5.88% to 18.00 [28] - **Import and Export - Lithium Carbonate**: Not provided in the content - **Import and Export - Seasonal Changes**: Not provided in the content - **Import and Export - Lithium Hydroxide**: Not provided in the content - **Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Social Inventory**: Not provided in the content - **Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts**: The exchange warehouse receipts increased 37.8% week - on - week to 15,050 lots. The upstream lithium ore warehouse available inventory doubled to 10,000 tons week - on - week, showing obvious signs of inventory accumulation at the raw material end [2][41] - **Cost and Profit - Lithium Carbonate**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 7.64% to 104,970 yuan/ton, higher than the spot price. The production profit of the externally purchased concentrate route was - 9,219.6 yuan/ton, and although the loss narrowed 43.59% week - on - week, the entire industry was still in a deep - loss state [2] Lithium Battery Fundamentals - **Market - Cathode Materials**: Not provided in the content - **Supply - Cathode Material Production**: The weekly production of ternary and lithium - iron materials decreased month - on - month, showing marginal signs of slowdown [2] - **Supply - Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not provided in the content - **Demand - Cathode Material Consumption**: Not provided in the content - **Import and Export - Lithium Battery Materials**: Not provided in the content - **Import and Export - Batteries**: Not provided in the content - **Cost and Profit - Ternary Materials**: Not provided in the content - **Lithium Battery Recycling**: Not provided in the content - **New Energy Vehicles - Production and Sales**: Not provided in the content

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing mixed performance, with lithium carbonate futures slightly declining by 1.24% to 92,160.0 CNY/ton [1] - Supply side analysis shows a weekly production increase of 74 tons to 21,939 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 120 tons to 13,484 tons, while lithium salt lake production decreased by 145 tons to 3,090 tons [1] - Demand side insights reveal a divergence in expectations for December, with a slight reduction in production for lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries, indicating a need to monitor weekly inventory depletion for demand performance validation [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the lithium carbonate market suggests intensified supply-demand dynamics due to the resumption of production by Ningde, with expectations for increased price volatility [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the current price is facing short-term pressure around the 100,000 CNY/ton mark, with strong profit-taking motivation from bulls, necessitating caution against high-risk chasing [2] - Overall, the market is advised to be cautious of potential short-term price corrections amid active trading and increased capital divergence [2]