Core Viewpoint - Guoquan (02517) has released a positive profit forecast for H1 2025, indicating significant growth in net profit and core operating profit, driven by its community central kitchen strategy and operational efficiency improvements [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit of approximately 180-210 million yuan in H1 2025, representing an increase of about 111%-146% compared to 85.5 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [1]. - Core operating profit is projected to be around 180-210 million yuan, up approximately 44%-68% from 125 million yuan in H1 2024 [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to its community central kitchen strategy, which focuses on expanding its instant retail store network and enhancing store operational efficiency through a multi-channel approach [1]. - The "explosive product" strategy has led to significant sales, with the 99 yuan beef tripe package achieving over 500 million yuan in sales in 2024 and receiving 6.21 billion exposures on Douyin [1]. Membership and Channel Development - As of the end of 2024, the company has registered 41.3 million members, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.2%, with prepaid card deposits reaching 990 million yuan, up 36.6% [1]. - The company has innovated its channel strategy by launching beef tripe hot pot packages through a multi-tiered Douyin account matrix, achieving a total exposure of over 6.21 billion on Douyin in 2024 [1]. Revenue Projections - The company anticipates revenues of 7.183 billion yuan, 8.036 billion yuan, and 9.08 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2]. - Corresponding net profits are projected to be 340 million yuan, 396 million yuan, and 463 million yuan for the same years, with PE valuations of 24x, 21x, and 18x [2].

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 180 million to 210 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 111% to 146% [1] - The core operating profit is also projected to be between 180 million to 210 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 44% to 68% [1] - The increase in net profit and core operating profit is attributed to continuous revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [1] Group 2 - The company is expanding its community central kitchen strategy through a multi-channel approach, combining online and offline methods to enhance store network and operational efficiency [1] - The company is penetrating lower-tier markets with low franchise fees to achieve rapid scale expansion, reinforcing its leading and scale effects, and continuously increasing market share [1] - The company is strengthening its control over the supply chain and enhancing the integration of production, supply, and sales through a "single product, single factory" strategy [1] Group 3 - The company is implementing differentiated operations in urban and rural areas, focusing on high cost-performance products and diverse operations to establish a strong competitive edge in county-level markets [2] - The flexible pricing strategy and seasonal product operations are designed to attract customer traffic and enhance the core competitiveness of rural store types [2] - The company is leveraging a membership system to increase customer loyalty and maximize operational hours, thereby solidifying its position in the community meal market [2] Group 4 - The company has introduced high cost-performance meal packages and is utilizing Douyin for online traffic, alongside category expansion and unmanned retail to enhance single-store profitability [3] - The company anticipates a steady increase in new store openings, with a projected revenue of 7.272 billion, 8.970 billion, and 11.252 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12.40%, 23.34%, and 25.45% respectively [3] - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to be 379 million, 464 million, and 578 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 64.38%, 22.42%, and 24.54% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry continues to face challenges since 2025, but leading companies like Guoquan are showing strong operational performance, indicating structural investment opportunities in the market [1]. Financial Performance - Guoquan announced a profit warning on July 15, expecting a net profit of approximately 180 million to 210 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 111% to 146% [1]. - The core operating profit is also projected to be between 180 million to 210 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 44% to 68%, showcasing significant enhancement in profitability [1]. Market Response - Following the announcement, Guoquan's stock price surged, reaching a peak increase of 20% during trading, ultimately closing up by 7.29% [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Guoquan attributes its substantial growth to ongoing revenue increases and steady operational efficiency improvements, particularly through its community central kitchen strategy, which integrates online and offline channels for instant retail expansion [4]. - The community central kitchen strategy is yielding results, demonstrating "profitable growth," and the cultivation of instant retail as a new growth point is progressing smoothly, potentially enhancing future growth prospects [4]. Instant Retail Market Potential - The instant retail market is gaining traction due to its convenience and flexibility, with the market size in China reaching 650 billion yuan in 2023 and expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating significant growth potential [6]. - Guoquan's early positioning in the instant retail market provides ample development space and opportunities for accelerated growth [7]. Competitive Advantages - Guoquan's strategy includes providing comprehensive meal solutions for community residents, expanding product offerings, and enhancing supply chain efficiency to maintain quality and cost advantages [8]. - The company plans to double its self-owned food processing factories by 2024, focusing on specific product categories, which will further strengthen its market position [8]. Business Synergy and Expansion - The integration of instant retail will enhance Guoquan's community central kitchen positioning, allowing for extended operating hours and increased service capacity, which can improve customer reach and repurchase rates [11]. - Guoquan has significant room for expansion in rural markets, with only about 2,000 stores in over 30,000 towns, indicating a vast opportunity for growth [12]. - The company has successfully implemented a model that empowers small B-end clients in rural areas while efficiently delivering large-packaged ingredients, laying a foundation for scalable expansion [12]. Long-term Growth Potential - Guoquan's impressive profit forecast reflects the effective release of its strategic capabilities, with long-term growth potential in the instant retail and rural markets being particularly promising [14].

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit of approximately 180 million to 210 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of about 111% to 146% compared to the net profit of 85.5 million yuan for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [3] - The expected core operating profit for the first half of 2025 is also projected to be between 180 million to 210 million yuan, which is an increase of approximately 44% to 68% from the core operating profit of 125 million yuan for the same period in 2024 [3] - The board attributes the increase in net profit and core operating profit to continuous revenue growth and steady optimization of operational efficiency, driven by the community central kitchen strategy and the expansion of the instant retail store network [3] Group 2 - The company, established in 2017 in Henan, positions itself as a one-stop "hot pot and barbecue ingredient new retail chain supermarket," primarily selling hot pot and barbecue ingredients, including frozen products, fresh food, snacks, sauces, beverages, and cooking utensils [4] - On November 2, 2023, the company was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first stock in the "home-cooked meal" sector, with a total market capitalization of approximately 9.477 billion HKD as of July 16 [4] - The company has set a clear development plan for its stores, aiming to reach a total of 20,000 stores in the next five years, as stated by the chairman during an interview in March [5] - The company has initiated a second plan to open 10,000 new stores in county and district markets over the next five years, focusing on a "cost-performance" strategy to enhance both the number and efficiency of its stores [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 180-210 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 111%-146% compared to 85.5 million yuan for the same period in 2024 [6][8] - The core operating profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be around 180-210 million yuan, an increase of approximately 44%-68% from 125 million yuan in the previous year [6][8] - The company continues to implement its community central kitchen strategy, expanding its instant retail store network and improving store operational efficiency [6][8] Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue forecast of 7.183 billion yuan for 2025, with expected growth rates of 11%, 12%, and 13% for the following years [7][8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 340 million yuan, with a growth rate of 48% compared to the previous year [7][8] - The company has registered 41.3 million members by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 48.2%, with prepaid card deposits amounting to 990 million yuan, up 36.6% [6][8] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong market position as a leader in the "home dining" sector, supported by its product strategy, membership ecosystem, and channel innovation [6][8] - The sales of the 99 yuan beef tripe package exceeded 500 million yuan in 2024, with a total exposure of 6.21 billion times on Douyin [6][8] - The company is optimistic about the potential for expansion in rural areas, which is expected to drive same-store sales and operational efficiency [6][8]