Core Viewpoint - Guoquan is a leading brand in China's home dining food products, providing a wide range of ready-to-eat and ready-to-cook ingredients through a nationwide franchise network, with a target of 10,150 stores by 2024 [1] Industry Overview - The home dining market in China has grown from 3.25 trillion yuan in 2018 to 5.62 trillion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of approximately 14.7%. The food product segment has seen even faster growth, with a CAGR of 25.5%, reaching 367.3 billion yuan [1] - The industry is highly fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 11.1% market share in 2022, while Guoquan leads with a 3.0% share [1] Business Model and Supply Chain - Guoquan employs a "single product, single factory" model, operating seven factories with a total capacity of 25,000 tons in 2022. The acquisition of Huading Cold Chain in 2024 will enhance its cold chain network across 290 cities [2] - The company focuses on refined operations and rapid product iteration based on consumer feedback, with a payback period for stores in provincial, prefectural, and county-level cities estimated at 12.2, 17.9, and 20.1 months, respectively [2] - The expansion plan aims for 20,000 stores, primarily targeting lower-tier markets, with single-store revenue recovering through popular products [2] Financial Projections and Valuation - Guoquan is projected to achieve total revenue of 73.3 billion yuan, 84.4 billion yuan, and 95.9 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.3%, 15.1%, and 13.6% [3] - The company is expected to realize net profits of 4.1 billion yuan, 4.9 billion yuan, and 5.6 billion yuan during the same period, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 78.9%, 19.4%, and 13.7% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 22.6, 18.9, and 16.6 for the years 2025 to 2027, with a potential market value of 111 to 124 billion HKD, indicating a premium of 11% to 24% compared to the current valuation [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company, Guoquan, is a leading brand in the home dining food product sector in China, with over 10,150 stores as of 2024, and a revenue forecast of 6.47 billion yuan for the same year, with 84% of revenue coming from franchisees [1][4]. - The home dining market in China has grown significantly, with a CAGR of approximately 14.7% from 2018 to 2022, and the segment for food products has seen even faster growth at 25.5% [1][34]. - Guoquan's business model includes a deep integration of the supply chain and a focus on optimizing its commercial model, which is expected to enhance profitability [2][55]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guoquan is positioned as a leading brand in home dining food products, offering a variety of ready-to-eat and ready-to-cook ingredients across eight categories [12][14]. - The company has established a nationwide franchise network, achieving a store count of 10,150 by the end of 2024 [1][26]. Industry Analysis - The home dining market in China has expanded from 32.48 trillion yuan in 2018 to 56.16 trillion yuan in 2022, with projections to reach 71.09 trillion yuan by 2027 [34]. - The competitive landscape is highly fragmented, with Guoquan holding a market share of approximately 3.0%, leading the industry [39]. Core Advantages - Guoquan employs a "single product, single factory" model, operating seven factories to cover various product categories, which enhances its supply chain efficiency [2][55]. - The company has established a robust network of over 300 suppliers, ensuring a comprehensive supply chain and optimizing production costs [55][56]. Future Outlook - The company aims to expand its store count to 20,000, primarily targeting lower-tier cities, with a projected revenue growth of 13.3% to 95.9 billion yuan by 2027 [2][3]. - Profitability is expected to improve, with net profit margins projected to rise as operational efficiencies are realized [3][27].