将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 从寒武纪到摩尔线程，也包括后面即将登陆资本市场的另外三条 "GPU 小龙 " ，以及上游的半导体设备和揪心的光刻机，大 概勾勒出了最核心的科技国产替代叙事。 2023 年后，趁着 AI 大模型的东风，算力自主可控才逐渐成了明牌。但实际上，明 牌也不意味着没有一波三折。 要论最近风头最盛"小登"投资人，那必须还是摩尔线程。 年初，我写过一篇文章， 《错过寒武纪的投资人，都在抢摩尔线程老股》 ，发布日期是 2025 年 1 月 10 日。当时搅动投 资人心神的，主要有这么几个线索： 作者丨 张楠 来源丨 投中网 今年资本市场有意思， " 小登 "" 中登 "" 老登 " 炒得不可开交，就连一些产业内部，也时不时互相攻讦一番。原因么，自 然是科技、消费、周期股等各个板块表现差异巨大，乃至于划分出了鲜明的阶级。 | 代表行业 | 年内涨跌幅 | | 代表个股 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 小登股 | | | | | | 机器人 | 72.43% | 卧龙电驱 | 大洋电机 | 三花智控 | | 237.01% | | | 97 ...

今日市场总体宽幅震荡，沪指早盘一度突破前期高点，午后银行股回调拖累沪指翻绿，创业板表现较 弱。截至收盘，沪指跌0.12%，深证成指跌0.43%，创业板指跌1.09%。 技术形态上，银行股7月开始见顶，以科创50为代表的科技股随之趁势而起；此外，资金方面，据中泰 证券研报，25年一季度主动基金持有银行股环比下降0.21个点至4%。 盘面上，小金属、黄金、有色金属、钢铁煤炭等顺周期概念全线拉升，盛达资源、北方铜业等多股涨 停；房地产概念拉升走强，首开股份、荣盛发展等涨停；半导体、摩尔线程、AI芯片等科技国产替代 概念持续走强，芯原股份、润建股份等多股涨停；光模块、铜缆高速连接等英伟达产业链持续强势，剑 桥科技、景旺电子等涨停； 跌幅方面，CRO、创新药、减肥药等医药概念持续回调；银行、保险、券商等大金融板块集体走低， 千亿银行龙头浦发银行跌约4%。 个股方面，算力芯片龙头寒武纪午后涨超9%，股价突破1520元，反超贵州茅台，一度重夺"股王"宝 座。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.12%报3870.60点，成交10938亿元；深成指跌0.43%报12924.13点，成交14117亿 元。创业板指下跌1.09%，报3020.4 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.24% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.15%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.52%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 150.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Notably, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high not seen since August 19, 2015 [1] Sector Performance Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector continued its strong performance, with stocks like Chipone Technology and Demingli reaching their daily limit. This strength is supported by a partnership between Kioxia and NVIDIA to develop a new type of SSD that is nearly 100 times faster than traditional SSDs [2] Cyclical Sectors - The cyclical sectors, including small metals, gold, non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal, saw a broad rally, with stocks such as Shengda Resources and Northern Copper reaching their daily limit. This rally is attributed to the rise in base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange, with aluminum up 2.06% and copper up 0.44% [3] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed strength, with stocks like Xiangjiang Holdings and Rongsheng Development hitting their daily limit. Analysts expect a rebound in real estate transaction volumes in the fourth quarter due to recent policy optimizations in major cities [4] Institutional Insights Oriental Securities - Oriental Securities noted that the market has re-established itself above all trend lines after two weeks of consolidation, indicating a proactive "upward choice." The challenge of surpassing 3900 points this month appears clear, with technology remaining a core investment focus [5] CITIC Securities - CITIC Securities reported that the consumer electronics and semiconductor sectors are in a recovery phase, driven by AI capabilities. They forecast that the electronic sector's revenue will reach 1.8578 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.2% [6] Galaxy Securities - Galaxy Securities highlighted that 2026 may be a pivotal year for the foldable screen market's recovery, driven by anticipated new products from Apple. They also noted that advancements in AR technology could lead to smart glasses becoming the next mainstream computing device [7]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rally on September 11, with major indices collectively surging, particularly the ChiNext Index which rose over 4% to surpass 3000 points, marking a new high since January 2022 [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.63%, and the STAR Market 50 Index by 5.34%, with a total trading volume of 1.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Leading sectors included CPO, PCB, liquid cooling servers, and semiconductor chips, indicating a continued upward trend in technology stocks [2] - Oracle's announcement of a 359% year-on-year increase in its Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) to $455 billion has positively influenced the market, with Oracle's stock soaring 36% and reaching a market capitalization of $922.2 billion [2] - The AI industry chain, particularly in computing power hardware, is expected to benefit from ongoing developments, with a projected growth of China's AI market to 815.9 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 33% [5] Investment Insights - BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for the Middle East and Asia expressed a neutral overall view on the Chinese stock market but highlighted a strong preference for Chinese technology stocks due to significant valuation gaps compared to global peers, particularly in AI-driven growth [3] - Analysts noted that the semiconductor and domestic substitution sectors are showing strong performance, with companies like TSMC reporting a 34% year-on-year sales increase in August, indicating robust demand for advanced AI chips [7] Future Outlook - Analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan emphasized that the underlying bullish logic in the market remains unchanged, with a focus on Hong Kong stocks and the AI sector as key investment themes [4][9] - Citic Securities highlighted the potential for innovation cycles in Apple hardware from 2025 to 2027, suggesting a focus on companies with strong ties to Apple's business and emerging fields like foldable screens and AI servers [11]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a significant surge, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3800 points and trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan for eight consecutive days, leading to a market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan [1] - There is a substantial inflow of funds into the stock market, with household deposits decreasing by 1.11 trillion yuan in July while non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, indicating a shift of capital from savings to equities [3] - Foreign capital is returning aggressively, with northbound funds purchasing continuously for 15 days, and funds from the real estate and bond markets are also flowing into the stock market, suggesting a stronger market environment compared to 2015, characterized as a "slow bull" rather than a "crazy bull" [3] Group 2 - The government has revealed its policy intentions, including stricter controls on IPOs and encouraging listed companies to distribute dividends, with state-owned entities purchasing 187.4 billion yuan to stabilize the market [3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability has surged to 90%, attracting global capital to the undervalued A-share market, indicating a supportive policy environment [3] - Economic indicators are showing improvement, with exports exceeding expectations, domestic semiconductor production rates surpassing 40%, and AI computing power growth exceeding 56%, leading to an upward revision of China's GDP growth forecast by the IMF to 4.8% [4] Group 3 - There are concerns regarding high valuations, exemplified by Cambrian's price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 4000, with a quarterly profit of only 355 million yuan, indicating potential risks as a large portion of shares is set to be unlocked in September [4] - The market is also facing challenges from companies lacking patents and orders in the "computing power leasing" sector, which have seen profit margins plummet to 15% [4] - A significant increase in new retail investor accounts, up 19% month-on-month, raises concerns about the potential for losses among those who invest based on market momentum rather than fundamentals [4] Group 4 - This bull market is characterized as the first systematic slow bull in A-share history, with the core logic shifting from "short-term liquidity" to a "golden triangle" of institutional reform, industrial upgrading, and long-term capital [5] - Investors are advised to focus on key themes such as technology and domestic substitution, maintain discipline by avoiding high leverage, and ignore market noise to enhance their chances of profitability [5] - Upcoming analysis will focus on five undervalued hard technology stocks with a performance growth rate of over 75% but trading at half their valuation [5]

Group 1: Market Style Divergence - The current market style divergence is primarily driven by macroeconomic conditions and policy direction, with high dividend sectors like banks and utilities becoming attractive in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 20%, driven by new AI regulations and the accelerated return of Chinese concept stocks [1] Group 2: Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on A-shares - The combination of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy has positively influenced the overall valuation and capital flow in A-shares, enhancing investor confidence and increasing the activity of leveraged funds [2] - Industries such as photovoltaics and AI have notably benefited from improved corporate profit expectations due to lower financing costs [2] Group 3: Long-term Market Sentiment from Real Estate and Exports - The stabilization of the real estate market positively impacts stock market sentiment, particularly benefiting banks, home appliances, and building materials sectors [3] - Strong export growth to ASEAN and Africa provides robust support for overall export data, despite uncertainties from US-China trade tensions [3] Group 4: Key Macroeconomic Variables for Growth and Value Style Divergence - Key macroeconomic variables influencing the divergence between growth and value styles include economic growth trends, interest rate changes, policy direction, inflation pressures, and global macro factors like Federal Reserve monetary policy [4] - A stable economic growth phase tends to expand demand in technology innovation sectors, boosting growth stock performance [4] Group 5: Investment Logic of Indices - The CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index is designed to provide continuous cash flow returns with lower volatility, making it suitable for investors seeking stable cash flow [5] - The SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index focuses on mid-cap hard tech companies, emphasizing sectors like semiconductors and biomedicine, appealing to investors optimistic about domestic technology replacement trends [5] Group 6: Industry Distribution of CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index - The index exhibits a "financial dominance + cyclical support" structure, with approximately 25% in industrials, over 22% in financials, and around 13% in materials [6] - This diversified design retains the advantages of industry dispersion while focusing on high dividend core sectors [6] Group 7: Dividend Asset Yield Advantage - In the current market environment, allocating to dividend low volatility index funds remains a favorable choice, especially as market volatility increases [7] - The supportive policies for dividend assets, such as the new "National Nine Articles" encouraging cash dividends from listed companies, enhance the long-term allocation value of dividend assets [7] Group 8: Core Competitiveness and Growth Potential of SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index - The core competitiveness of the SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index lies in its high R&D intensity and balanced coverage of key technology sectors, supported by policy incentives [8] - The index's average R&D intensity exceeds the average of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, covering critical areas like semiconductors and renewable energy [8] Group 9: Participation Methods for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors can participate in the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index and SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index through ETFs or ETF-linked funds, with options tailored for different investment strategies [9] - Specific funds like Bosera CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF and Bosera SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 ETF are suitable for investors familiar with market trading rules [9]