央行的货币政策工具可分为一般性货币政策工具、选择性货币政策工具和非常规货币政策工具三大类， 核心作用是调节市场流动性、影响利率水平，进而调控经济增长与通胀。 一、一般性货币政策工具 这类工具也被称为"三大法宝"，作用于整个金融市场，影响全局信贷规模和货币供应量。 存款准备金率 指金融机构按规定向央行缴纳的存款准备金占其存款总额的比例。央行上调存款准备金率时，金融机构 可放贷资金减少，市场流动性收紧；下调则释放流动性，降低企业和居民融资成本。 再贴现率 指商业银行将未到期的票据向央行贴现时的利率。央行上调再贴现率，会提高商业银行的融资成本，倒 逼其收紧信贷；下调则降低商业银行成本，鼓励其扩大放贷。 对金融机构发放的房地产贷款的首付比例、利率水平等进行管控，调节房地产市场的资金流入，稳定房 价。 三、非常规货币政策工具 公开市场操作 指央行在金融市场上买卖有价证券(如国债、央行票据)，以此调节货币供应量和市场利率。买入有价证 券时，央行向市场投放资金，流动性宽松；卖出时则回笼资金，流动性收紧。这是央行最常用、最灵活 的货币政策工具。 二、选择性货币政策工具 这类工具针对性较强，主要调节特定领域的信用和资金流向。 ...

技术面：日线上，近期行情维持震荡上行，整体维持比较强势。指标上看，行情处于均线上方运行，多 头强势。日内关注行情回调测试4430美元一线支撑情况。 黄金方面：地缘政治方面，俄乌整体有所降温，不过地缘仍然存在不确定性。美国总统特朗普和乌克兰 总统泽连斯基都释放了信号，表示俄乌非常接近达成和平协议。在目前存在争议的领土问题方面可能会 举行三方会晤。不过以色列方面释放消息表示，内塔尼亚胡访问美国，谈妥此前市场释放的以色列向美 国提交对伊朗的行动计划，投资者需要警惕中东地缘摩擦升级风险。 黄金价格当前仍然维持比较强势走势。特朗普有关美联储下一任主席的人选仍然影响黄金价格走向。特 朗普更加倾向于任命支持低利率的哈塞特，并且希望一年后美联储能够将利率水平降至1%或者更低水 平；同时特朗普表示其将在利率讨论中发挥更多作用，这将影响美联储独立性。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，短期黄金众多影响因素当中，支持黄金价格走高的因素并未 明显改变，黄金价格维持偏强运行将是大概率事件。 2、泽连斯基称，美乌安全保障已100%达成一致，特朗普则称已达成95%。 原油方面：政治博弈短期仍将为油价提供支撑。虽然俄乌和谈在近期释放出可 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 超长债周报 年末资金面宽松，超长债继续反弹 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周公布的 LPR 利率保持不变，央行四季度例会提到"充 实完善货币政策工具箱，开展国债买卖，关注长期收益率的变化"，A 股大涨，债市继续反弹，超长债小涨。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃 度小幅下降，交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差缩窄，品 种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 12 月 26 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 39BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，11 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 11 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，增速较 10 月回落 0.1%。通 胀方面，11 月 CPI 为 0.7%，PPI 为-2.2%，通缩风险有所缓解。我们认 为，当前债市震荡概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主 要来自于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度并无增发国债，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速快速回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。同时从中 央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量发 展，经济总量"稳中求进 ...

在达到目标并维持信誉之前，重新'锚定'(通胀预期)是非常困难的，"贝森特表示。他也承认了家庭对负 担能力的担忧——这种焦虑在11月举行的非大选年选举中显现，并导致了共和党的失利。 这位财政部长表示，"我们理解美国民众正在承受痛苦。"物价水平"已经变得非常高"，他将此归咎于拜 登政府。他认为，通胀现在"开始回落"，部分原因在于租金的下降——而他认为，租金的上涨是由无证 移民的激增所驱动的。 今日周三(12月24日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于71.76一线上方，今日开盘于71.46美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报72.10美元/盎司，上涨0.91%，最高触及72.70美元/盎司，最低下探71.31美元/盎 司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美国财政部长斯科特.贝森特(Scott Bessent)支持这样一种观点：一旦美国可持续地将物价涨幅控制回2% 的水平，就应重新考虑美联储的2%通胀目标。" 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银价格在早盘中交易中继续上涨，持续刷新历史新高，主看涨趋势在短期内占据主导地位，交易 伴随着支撑性的小趋势线，且由于交易高于EMA50，正压持续存在，同时相对 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 据外媒报道，欧洲央行管理委员会成员Joachim Nagel称当前利率处于良好水平。 ...

Core Insights - Brazil's central bank reported a 1.1% month-on-month increase in national credit volume for September, reaching 6.844 trillion reais [1] - The growth in credit was driven by a rebound in corporate and personal loan issuance, with free resource loans rising by 8.1% and directed resource loans increasing by 8.2% [1] - The non-performing loan rate for free resource loans improved slightly from 5.4% in August to 5.3% in September, marking two consecutive months of improvement [1] - Average interest rates for free credit loans decreased to 45.5%, down 0.4 percentage points, while directed credit rates fell to 11.1%, down 0.6 percentage points [1] - The banking spread in free credit business narrowed to 31.9 percentage points, compared to 32.2 percentage points in the previous month [1] - Analysts noted that the credit growth indicates a recovery in corporate financing activities and a gradual restoration of consumer credit demand, although high interest rates raise questions about the sustainability of loan expansion [1]

Group 1: Market Style Divergence - The current market style divergence is primarily driven by macroeconomic conditions and policy direction, with high dividend sectors like banks and utilities becoming attractive in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 20%, driven by new AI regulations and the accelerated return of Chinese concept stocks [1] Group 2: Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on A-shares - The combination of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy has positively influenced the overall valuation and capital flow in A-shares, enhancing investor confidence and increasing the activity of leveraged funds [2] - Industries such as photovoltaics and AI have notably benefited from improved corporate profit expectations due to lower financing costs [2] Group 3: Long-term Market Sentiment from Real Estate and Exports - The stabilization of the real estate market positively impacts stock market sentiment, particularly benefiting banks, home appliances, and building materials sectors [3] - Strong export growth to ASEAN and Africa provides robust support for overall export data, despite uncertainties from US-China trade tensions [3] Group 4: Key Macroeconomic Variables for Growth and Value Style Divergence - Key macroeconomic variables influencing the divergence between growth and value styles include economic growth trends, interest rate changes, policy direction, inflation pressures, and global macro factors like Federal Reserve monetary policy [4] - A stable economic growth phase tends to expand demand in technology innovation sectors, boosting growth stock performance [4] Group 5: Investment Logic of Indices - The CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index is designed to provide continuous cash flow returns with lower volatility, making it suitable for investors seeking stable cash flow [5] - The SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index focuses on mid-cap hard tech companies, emphasizing sectors like semiconductors and biomedicine, appealing to investors optimistic about domestic technology replacement trends [5] Group 6: Industry Distribution of CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index - The index exhibits a "financial dominance + cyclical support" structure, with approximately 25% in industrials, over 22% in financials, and around 13% in materials [6] - This diversified design retains the advantages of industry dispersion while focusing on high dividend core sectors [6] Group 7: Dividend Asset Yield Advantage - In the current market environment, allocating to dividend low volatility index funds remains a favorable choice, especially as market volatility increases [7] - The supportive policies for dividend assets, such as the new "National Nine Articles" encouraging cash dividends from listed companies, enhance the long-term allocation value of dividend assets [7] Group 8: Core Competitiveness and Growth Potential of SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index - The core competitiveness of the SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index lies in its high R&D intensity and balanced coverage of key technology sectors, supported by policy incentives [8] - The index's average R&D intensity exceeds the average of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, covering critical areas like semiconductors and renewable energy [8] Group 9: Participation Methods for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors can participate in the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index and SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index through ETFs or ETF-linked funds, with options tailored for different investment strategies [9] - Specific funds like Bosera CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF and Bosera SSE Sci-Tech Innovation 100 ETF are suitable for investors familiar with market trading rules [9]

Group 1 - Economic data plays a crucial role in foreign exchange rate fluctuations, with macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, inflation rate, and unemployment rate directly reflecting the health and development trends of an economy [1] - Strong GDP growth indicates economic prosperity, attracting foreign investors and increasing demand for the currency, thus pushing the exchange rate up; conversely, weak economic growth may lead to decreased currency demand and downward pressure on the exchange rate [1] - Inflation rates significantly impact exchange rates, with high inflation eroding purchasing power and causing currency depreciation, while stable low inflation helps maintain currency value [1] Group 2 - Interest rates are a key factor influencing foreign exchange rates, as differences in interest rates between countries can lead to international capital flows [1] - Higher interest rates attract foreign investors seeking better returns, increasing demand for the currency and pushing the exchange rate up; lower interest rates may result in capital outflows, increasing currency supply and decreasing demand, leading to a drop in the exchange rate [1] - Central banks adjust interest rates to achieve monetary policy goals, directly affecting supply and demand in the foreign exchange market and thus impacting exchange rate trends [1] Group 3 - Political stability, policy consistency, and diplomatic relations significantly affect foreign exchange rates, with political turmoil or sudden policy changes creating uncertainty that may lead investors to reduce holdings in that currency, causing depreciation [2] - A stable political environment and transparent policies enhance investor confidence, providing support for the exchange rate [2] - Geopolitical conflicts, such as wars and trade disputes, disrupt economic order and affect investor sentiment and market expectations, leading to significant impacts on foreign exchange rates [2] Group 4 - Market expectations and speculative behavior also have a notable influence on foreign exchange rates, as investors' anticipations regarding future economic data, policy directions, and international events are often reflected in the market [2] - Positive expectations about economic improvement or central bank rate hikes may lead investors to buy the currency in advance, pushing the exchange rate up; negative expectations can result in currency sell-offs and declines in exchange rates [2] - Speculative trading in the foreign exchange market can significantly increase exchange rate volatility in the short term due to large-scale trading based on predicted trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the global capital expenditure boom driven by "front-loading" in the U.S. and technology investments will face challenges in the second half of 2025, with a significant slowdown expected [1]. Group 1: Global Capital Expenditure Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, global capital expenditure surged by 14%, primarily driven by developed markets, which saw a 14.6% increase, while emerging markets recorded a 12.2% rise [2]. - The U.S. was the main contributor, with capital expenditure increasing by 24% in the first quarter, largely due to companies engaging in "front-loading" in anticipation of expected tariffs [2]. Group 2: Regional Performance - Other developed economies showed mixed results, with the UK (+49%) and Canada (+23%) experiencing remarkable growth, while the Eurozone and Australia faced mild quarterly contractions [3]. - In emerging markets, India and Taiwan benefited from technology cycles and AI-driven demand, showing strong capital expenditure, whereas South Korea experienced a contraction [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Despite a projected 8.8% growth in global capital expenditure for the second quarter, signs of slowing momentum have emerged, indicating potential cooling in the second half of the year [5]. - Three fundamental factors are expected to weigh on future capital expenditure performance: stagnation in corporate profits, high borrowing costs, and low business confidence [8]. - Corporate profit growth was robust at 7.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, but is expected to stagnate as GDP growth slows to 1.9% by the fourth quarter [9]. - Business confidence remains low, with global manufacturing expectations dropping to recession-like levels, and while there has been some recovery, it is still below normal levels [15]. - High interest rates continue to pose a challenge, with industrial-grade BBB bond yields and emerging market CEMBI yields remaining within the past three years' range, limiting capital expenditure growth [21].

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's Finance Minister Haddad stated that the country's interest rate levels are extremely tight [1] Group 1 - The current monetary policy in Brazil is characterized by high interest rates, which are aimed at controlling inflation [1] - The tight interest rate environment reflects the government's efforts to stabilize the economy and manage fiscal challenges [1]