编辑：倏禹 澳大利亚凭什么对中国稀土"开枪" 说起稀土这个话题，很多人可能不太了解其中的门道。简单来说，稀土就像工业领域的调料，没有它，什么高科技产品都做不出来。 54万吨澳大利亚油菜籽正在装船准备运往中国，这笔订单足以养活1.2万澳洲农户。 就在此时，一份机密会议纪要曝光，八国正密谋建立稀土联盟，澳大利亚赫然在列，且态度最为积极。 订单和对抗能否并存？澳方打的什么算盘？ 从手机里的芯片到新能源汽车的电池，从战斗机的导航系统到核潜艇的推进装置，哪一样都离不开稀土元素的参与。而在这个关键领域，中国掌握着全球 90%以上的稀土精炼产能。澳大利亚确实有稀土，储量还不少。 但问题是，美方能给的订单规模和中国市场比起来，根本不在一个量级。而且，美方的承诺能兑现多少，还得打个问号。加拿大就是个活生生的例子。 但有矿是一回事，能不能变成有用的产品又是另一回事。就好比有人给你一堆铁矿石，但你没有炼钢技术，这些矿石也就是一堆石头而已。澳方最大的稀土 企业莱纳斯公司，连个完整的生产线都搭不起来。 关键的分离设备有30%的零部件还得从中国进口，这叫什么"去中国化"？更让人哭笑不得的是，澳方声称要建立独立的稀土供应链。问题是，中国的 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. is attempting to reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earths, with the first new rare earth mine set to produce in July 2023, valued at $37 billion [1] - Australia, despite having the fifth-largest rare earth reserves, lacks the production capacity and technology to replace China in the rare earth supply chain [3] - Japan is trying to strengthen its rare earth supply chain cooperation with the U.S. but is caught in a dilemma due to its past experiences with China [3] Group 2 - India claims it will replace China in the rare earth sector within five years, but its production capacity is less than one-tenth of China's [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed urgency as China's exports of rare earth magnets to the U.S. have not returned to pre-April levels after tariffs were imposed [3][5] - China's dominance in rare earth refining technology poses a significant challenge for the U.S. and its allies in finding alternative suppliers [5] Group 3 - The EU has faced backlash from China over rare earth issues, leading to significant disruptions in supply chains for companies like Volkswagen and Safran [5] - The U.S. and its allies' attempts to form a rare earth alliance to counter China have resulted in concessions to China instead [7] - The interconnectedness of global supply chains suggests that unilateral actions and protectionism will ultimately harm the initiators [8]

Group 1 - The core objective of the QUAD alliance is to reduce dependence on China's critical minerals, particularly in rare earth elements, where China dominates global supply chains, accounting for approximately 60% of global rare earth mining and nearly 90% of refining [5][9][30] - The "Quad Critical Minerals Initiative" aims to ensure that the four countries can secure access to essential minerals for the 21st-century economy, indicating a strategic move towards creating a "de-China" mineral supply chain [7][30] - The simultaneous easing of restrictions on semiconductor design software exports to China by the U.S. Department of Commerce reveals a complex strategy of "dual tactics," where the U.S. seeks to balance containment with selective cooperation [11][30] Group 2 - The internal dynamics of the QUAD alliance show significant tensions, with differing priorities among member countries regarding security responsibilities and trust in U.S. leadership, indicating that the alliance is not as cohesive as it appears [16][22] - Australia's concerns over the AUKUS nuclear submarine project and India's trade tensions with the U.S. highlight the fragility of the QUAD partnership, as these issues could undermine collective efforts against China [18][19][22] - The U.S. strategy reflects a need for tactical adjustments in mature sectors like semiconductors, where strict containment has proven costly and counterproductive, leading to a search for a balance between strategic containment and maintaining commercial interests [15][30] Group 3 - China's response to the QUAD's mineral containment strategy includes tightening export controls on rare earths, which aligns with international rules and aims to protect its national interests while highlighting the vulnerabilities in Western supply chains [9][24][30] - The emphasis on enhancing domestic exploration and development of strategic mineral resources, as well as investing in advanced processing and technology, is crucial for China to maintain its competitive edge in the global market [24][26][30] - The ongoing geopolitical competition over resources and technology underscores the importance of securing critical minerals and advancing technological innovation as key components of national strategy for China [30][32]

Core Viewpoint - China's J-36 fighter jet has successfully completed five test flights, while the U.S. sixth-generation fighter jet program appears to be stalled, potentially remaining at the conceptual stage indefinitely [1] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade and Rare Earths - The U.S. trade war initiated by Trump has significantly impacted the U.S. aerospace industry, revealing a critical dependency on China's control over rare earth elements [3] - In response to the trade war, China's Ministry of Commerce implemented export license controls on seven heavy rare earth elements, effectively targeting U.S. military contractors like Lockheed Martin and Boeing [3][4] - China's strong countermeasures are attributed to the contributions of Xu Guangxian, known as the "Father of Rare Earths," who developed a method to significantly improve the extraction and purification of rare earth elements [4][5] Group 2: China's Rare Earth Dominance - China holds approximately 44 million tons of rare earth oxide reserves, accounting for 34% of global reserves, with approved mining quotas reaching 240,000 tons in 2023 [5] - The global rare earth industry is heavily reliant on China, which produces about 70% of rare earth minerals and possesses 85% of deep processing capabilities [5] - From 1950 to 2019, China submitted over 26,000 patents in the rare earth field, far surpassing Japan and the U.S., indicating a strong technological and industrial advantage [5] Group 3: Impact on U.S. Military Technology - Rare earth elements are essential for modern high-tech equipment, including the F-35 fighter jet, which requires 408 kg of rare earth materials for optimal performance [7] - The U.S. sixth-generation fighter jet program is hindered by its reliance on rare earths, making progress toward operational aircraft unlikely without access to these materials [9] Group 4: U.S. Response and Challenges - The U.S. is attempting to revive the Mountain Pass mine and form a "rare earth alliance" with Australia and Canada, but these efforts have not yielded significant results [9][11] - Despite investing billions, the U.S. lacks the deep processing capacity to independently establish a rare earth supply chain, relying instead on Chinese partners for purification [11] - Companies like Tesla are reducing rare earth usage in their electric motors, but this compromises performance, while military firms are exploring alternative materials, which may also reduce efficiency [11]