重点品种： 铜、黄金、原油 铜： 国庆假期 LME 铜上涨近 3% ，继续受预期矿端供应紧张推动，印尼矿难导致供求预期转为小幅缺 口。年初以来精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数 据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。全 球铜供求小幅缺口预期，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 黄金： 节日期间贵金属延续强势，国际金价站上 4000 美元 / 盎司，白银同样一路高歌。美联储谨慎表 态、美元走强、远好于预期的 9 月非农等传统利空因素未对黄金形成打压，美国政府"停摆"还在发酵。 体现了对美国财政赤字、债务持续膨胀的担忧，以中国为代表的央行持续增持黄金，对当前金融体系不 信任的背景下重新成为终极安全资产的长期叙事主导愈发明显，价格一路高歌和情绪发酵相互增强。对 白银征收关税担忧使得现货趋紧，令白银双重收益。尽管目前来看黄金的长期多头叙事明确，但短期还 是要注意情绪的过度表达。 原油： 节日期间，国际油价先跌后涨，整体价格基本与节前持平。目前影响油价的因素主要有四点。 一是 OPEC 的持续增产，节日期间 ...

Group 1 - The current gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with expectations of a high-level sweep before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week [2] - Gold is expected to maintain a bullish trend as long as it stays above the key support levels of 3580 and the last wave's starting point [2] - The short-term downward pressure is evident below 3674, with a focus on the 3640-3643 area for potential trading strategies [2] Group 2 - Domestic gold trading emphasizes not chasing high prices and waiting for pullbacks to enter long positions, with specific support levels identified for both Shanghai gold and accumulated gold [2] - Recent trading has shown that Shanghai gold and accumulated gold have rebounded at their respective support levels of 830 and 820, indicating potential profit opportunities for traders [2] - The overall trend remains bullish, and traders are advised to take profits near 840 for Shanghai gold and 830 for accumulated gold while maintaining a positive outlook [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold price fluctuated between 3437 and 3600 this week, with a notable increase in volatility after breaking the 3500 level, indicating strong bullish sentiment [1] - The weekly closing showed a significant bullish trend, with the mid-range support remaining firm, suggesting continued upward movement in gold prices [1] - Daily analysis indicates a series of upward movements from Monday to Wednesday, followed by a single-day pullback on Thursday, and a resurgence on Friday, establishing 3510 as a new upward starting point [1] - The trend remains strong, but the risk of rapid declines increases with the rising prices, necessitating caution in trading strategies [1] - The focus for next week is on maintaining a bullish outlook while being vigilant, with key levels to watch being 3555/3566 for potential bullish positions and 3532/3544 as critical support [1] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market experienced a decline this week, aligning with previous expectations, with a focus on bearish positions around the 65/66 levels [2] - The weekly performance showed a downward trend, and the outlook for next week suggests continued bearish sentiment with potential rebounds to set up further short positions [2] - The anticipated target for this downward movement is between 57 and 60, where consideration for bullish positions may be revisited [2] - Temporary support was noted at 61.30, with expectations for rebounds to 63.20/64.20 to establish additional short positions [2]

Group 1 - The focus is on the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which is expected to have a limited impact on gold prices if the actual data aligns closely with market predictions [2][4] - Gold has shown a bullish trend, with a significant increase of over $200, but recent adjustments indicate potential volatility around key support and resistance levels [4][5] - Silver has faced resistance at $41.5, and its future performance will depend on the non-farm data, with a critical support level at $40 [5][6] Group 2 - The domestic gold market has mirrored international trends, with significant price movements in contracts like the Shanghai Gold (2512) and Rongtong Gold, indicating a potential peak in the current uptrend [5] - The strategy for trading gold involves cautious short positions ahead of the non-farm data, with specific price levels to watch for potential reversals [5][6] - The international silver market is also under scrutiny, with a focus on the $41.5 resistance and $40 support, which will dictate future price movements based on the non-farm data [5][6]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a rebound, but it is still within a bearish trend, with the last significant low at 107200 being a critical level for potential further declines [1][3] - The short-term resistance level is identified at 113500, and a breakthrough above this level is necessary for a change in the current market framework [3] - The presence of two consecutive daily gains may indicate a potential bull trap, suggesting that traders should remain cautious and consider short positions [3] Group 2 - The price action indicates that the market is likely to test the 110500-111000 area, which may lead to adjustments before any further movements [1] - If a significant bearish engulfing pattern occurs today, it would confirm the continuation of the downtrend, while a rebound could indicate a consolidation phase [3] - Overall, the prevailing sentiment remains bearish, with short positions being favored in the current trading environment [3]

Group 1 - The article suggests that the bearish trend in gold at the hourly level remains unchanged, indicating a potential test of the 3320 level again [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent false breakdown in gold prices and strategies to avoid low-level short selling [1] - It questions whether the bearish trend for the US dollar and Swiss franc is still ongoing [1] - The latest update of the "Steven Trend Equation" program is mentioned, encouraging viewers to watch it for more insights [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a strong bearish trend in the gold market, indicating that the bullish defense level of 3340 is at risk of being breached [1] Group 1 - The current market sentiment for gold is predominantly bearish, suggesting a potential decline in prices [1] - The trading academy is actively engaging with participants through live sessions, indicating a focus on real-time market analysis and education [1]

Core Insights - Gold has entered a bearish trend, briefly dropping below 3300 before recovering, raising questions about the potential for a bullish market to return [1] Group 1 - The current trend for gold is bearish, indicating a downward movement in prices [1] - Gold prices briefly fell below the 3300 mark, suggesting volatility in the market [1] - There is speculation regarding the possibility of a bullish trend returning in the future [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming release of CPI data and its potential impact on the short-term bearish trend in gold prices [1] - There is speculation on whether gold prices can rebound tonight, indicating a focus on market sentiment and trading strategies [1] - The TTPS team is actively analyzing the situation, suggesting a proactive approach to trading in response to market developments [1]