| 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 赵阳 S0350525100003 | | | | zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 郭可凡 S0350124070038 | | | | guokf@ghzq.com.cn | 2025 年 11 月 24 日 策略周报 [Table_Title] 基金发行端回暖，杠杆资金有所放缓 ——流动性周报 11 月第 1 期 最近一年走势 投资要点: 相关报告 《存款搬家如何演绎——牛市资金面专题研究 (一)*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》——2025-08-10 ETF 系列报告（一）*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》—— 2025-05-30 《业绩基准如何选择*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》—— 2025-05-29 《如何看待近期涨价领域拥挤度偏高的情况*赵 阳》——2025-11-23 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 1. 宏观流动性保持宽松，央行通过公开市场操作开展 7 天逆回购 净投放 5540 亿元，连续两周实现净投放。同时， ...

- The report constructs an industry congestion monitoring model to monitor the congestion levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indexes on a daily basis[3] - The report constructs a premium rate Z-score model to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities[4] - The industry congestion monitoring model indicates that the congestion levels of the power equipment and chemical industries were high on the previous trading day, while the congestion levels of the computer and automotive industries were relatively low[3] - The premium rate Z-score model provides signals for ETF products, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities and cautioning about the risk of pullbacks[4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rapid expansion of the ETF market in China, with total scale reaching approximately 5.74 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of over 53.96% [2][4][5] - The growth of ETFs is driven by a favorable market environment and increasing recognition of passive index investing among various investors, leading to significant inflows into thematic and industry-specific ETFs [2][3] - The number of newly launched ETFs in 2023 has reached a historical high, with 318 new products and nearly 2.5 billion units issued, contributing to the overall growth of the ETF market [4][5] Group 2 - The competition in the ETF industry is intensifying, with a shift from scale expansion to enhancing investor education and comprehensive service levels, focusing on improving investor experience [1][2][6] - Fund companies are encouraged to adopt a three-dimensional system that integrates product, service, and operation to build long-term competitive advantages and transition from homogeneous competition to differentiated value competition [1][8] - New players are entering the ETF market, with established firms like Changcheng Fund and Xingsheng Global Fund launching ETF products, indicating a dynamic and competitive landscape [8][9] Group 3 - The ETF market is witnessing a structural differentiation, with broad-based ETFs experiencing some redemptions while thematic products aligned with market trends are gaining popularity [2][4] - The industry is seeing a rise in innovative ETF products, including cross-market and multi-asset ETFs, to meet diverse investor needs and preferences [9] - The focus on educating investors about the nature of ETFs as asset allocation tools is crucial, emphasizing their risk diversification capabilities while also addressing the volatility associated with index tracking [3][6]

Core Insights - The demand for segmented investment products is driving the growth of industry-themed funds in the public offering sector [1] - The public offering industry is entering a tool-oriented era, where niche products with distinct styles and specific industry scenarios are becoming key in marketing strategies [1] - Despite a general decline in broad-based product shares, many industry-themed funds have significantly increased their shares in the third quarter [1] Industry Trends - The substantial growth in industry-themed ETFs is largely attributed to the current structural market conditions, where stock market opportunities are unevenly distributed [1] - Active capital is focusing on a few high-growth sectors, which diminishes the appeal of broad-based ETFs that lack specific industry characteristics during thematic rotations [1]

Core Insights - The total net asset value of public funds in China reached a historical high of 36.74 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025, marking a nearly 7% increase from the end of Q2 2025 and a 14.56% increase year-on-year [1][4]. Fund Management Landscape - There are 165 public fund management institutions in China, including 150 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications [1]. - The top two fund management companies, E Fund and Huaxia, have assets exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan and 2.2 trillion yuan, respectively, while eight other firms have surpassed 1 trillion yuan in assets [1][7]. Fund Type Performance - All major fund types, except bond funds, experienced growth in Q3 2025. The fastest-growing were overseas investment funds, which increased by 33.18%, followed by stock funds with a 25.3% increase [4][5]. - The total net asset value of stock funds reached 5.94 trillion yuan, while mixed funds grew to 3.91 trillion yuan [4]. Bond Fund Trends - Bond funds saw a decline in total net asset value, dropping to 10.62 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.33% from the end of Q2 2025 [6]. Market Dynamics - The top ten fund managers accounted for 41.31% of the total market size, with their combined assets reaching 15.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a trend of "the strong getting stronger" [7][8]. - The top ten fund managers in terms of equity fund size include E Fund, Huaxia, and others, with E Fund leading at 1.29 trillion yuan [9]. Investor Behavior - There is a significant divergence in the subscription trends of equity funds, with thematic ETFs and cross-border ETFs being particularly popular, achieving net subscriptions exceeding 100 billion units in Q3 2025 [10][11]. - Some actively managed equity funds also attracted substantial net subscriptions, but their levels were lower compared to ETF products [12]. Redemption Trends - Despite the overall market expansion, there is a notable trend of profit-taking among investors, leading to significant redemptions in certain funds, particularly those that had previously experienced long periods of adjustment [14][15]. - For instance, the Huaxia Science and Technology 50 ETF and E Fund Medical ETF saw substantial reductions in their fund sizes during Q3 2025 [16].

Core Insights - The total net asset value of public funds in China reached a historic high of 36.74 trillion yuan as of September 2025, marking a nearly 7% increase from the end of Q2 2025 and a 14.56% increase year-on-year [1][3][4]. Fund Management Landscape - There are 165 public fund management institutions in China, including 150 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications [1]. - The top two fund management companies, E Fund and Huaxia, have assets under management (AUM) exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan and 2.2 trillion yuan, respectively [1][8]. - The top ten fund managers collectively manage 15.06 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.31% of the total market size, indicating a trend of "the strong getting stronger" [6][8]. Fund Type Performance - In Q3 2025, the total scale of public funds increased by 2.35 trillion yuan, with all fund types except bond funds showing growth [4][6]. - The fastest-growing fund types were overseas investment funds, which saw a 33.18% increase, and stock funds, which grew by 25.3% [5][6]. - The total scale of stock funds reached 5.94 trillion yuan, while mixed funds reached 3.91 trillion yuan, reflecting significant growth in these categories [5][9]. Investor Behavior and Trends - There has been a notable demand for thematic ETFs and cross-border ETFs, with several funds seeing net subscriptions exceeding 10 billion units in Q3 2025 [13][14]. - Despite the overall growth, there is a significant divergence in the subscription patterns of equity funds, with some experiencing heavy redemptions as investors lock in profits [14][15]. - High-performing active equity funds also attracted net subscriptions, but their levels were lower compared to ETF products [14]. Redemption Trends - Some ETFs, particularly in sectors that had previously seen long adjustments, experienced significant redemptions as investors opted to cash out after recent performance recoveries [15]. - Notable examples include the Huaxia Sci-Tech 50 ETF and E Fund Medical ETF, which saw reductions in fund shares of 307.89 billion and 133.28 billion, respectively [15].

Core Viewpoint - The total scale of public funds in China has reached a historical high of 36.74 trillion yuan, marking a nearly 7% increase from the end of the second quarter of 2025, driven by a recovering stock market and strong performance of equity funds [1][3]. Fund Scale and Growth - As of September 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China is 36.74 trillion yuan, a 14.56% increase year-on-year and an increase of 2.35 trillion yuan in the third quarter alone [3][5]. - All major fund types, except for bond funds, experienced growth in the third quarter, with overseas investment funds showing the fastest growth rate of 33.18% [4][5]. Fund Type Performance - The scale of various fund types at the end of the third quarter is as follows: - Stock funds: 5.94 trillion yuan, up 25.3% from the end of June - Mixed funds: 3.91 trillion yuan, up 17.89% - Money market funds: 14.40 trillion yuan, up 3.32% - Overseas investment funds: 904.52 billion yuan, up 33.18% - FOF: 193.49 billion yuan, up 17.22% - Bond funds: 10.62 trillion yuan, down 1.33% [4][5]. Market Leaders - The top ten fund management companies account for 41.31% of the total market scale, with their combined net asset value reaching 15.06 trillion yuan [5][6]. - The leading fund management companies by scale as of September 2025 are: - E Fund: 2.53 trillion yuan - Huaxia Fund: 2.25 trillion yuan - GF Fund: 1.61 trillion yuan - Southern Fund: 1.48 trillion yuan - Other notable firms include Tianhong, Jiashi, Boshi, and Huitianfu, all exceeding 1 trillion yuan [6][7]. Investor Behavior - There is a significant divergence in the subscription of equity funds, with tool-type products like industry-themed ETFs and cross-border ETFs being highly favored, achieving net subscriptions of over 10 billion units each [10][11]. - Conversely, some actively managed equity funds have also seen substantial net subscriptions, but their "attraction" is not as strong as that of ETFs [12]. - Despite the overall market expansion, there is a notable trend of profit-taking among investors, particularly in sectors that have recently rebounded [12][13].

Core Insights - The total scale of public funds in China reached 36.74 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025, marking a 7% increase from the second quarter of the year and a 14.56% increase year-on-year [1][2][5] Fund Management Landscape - As of September 2025, there are 165 public fund management institutions in China, including 150 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications [1] - The top ten fund managers account for 41.31% of the total market scale, with their combined asset value reaching 15.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a trend of "the strong getting stronger" [5][7] Fund Type Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, various fund types, except for bond funds, experienced growth. Notably, overseas investment funds saw the highest growth rate at 33.18%, followed by stock funds at 25.3% [2][4] - The total scale of stock funds reached 5.94 trillion yuan, while mixed funds reached 3.91 trillion yuan, and money market funds totaled 14.40 trillion yuan [4][5] ETF and Active Fund Trends - Tools that capture market trends, such as thematic ETFs and cross-border ETFs, have become highly sought after, with several funds seeing net subscriptions exceeding 10 billion units in the third quarter [10] - Some actively managed equity funds also attracted significant net subscriptions, although their "capital-absorbing" capacity was lower than that of ETF products [11] Redemption Trends - Despite the overall market expansion, there is a notable trend of investors cashing out, particularly in sectors that have seen recent rebounds. For instance, several ETFs experienced significant reductions in fund shares during the third quarter [12][14][15]

Core Insights - The ETF market is experiencing significant growth, with a total scale of 5.7 trillion yuan as of October 31, 2023, representing an increase of nearly 2 trillion yuan or approximately 53% since the end of 2024 [1][2][10] - Stock and bond ETFs are the main drivers of this expansion, with stock ETFs increasing by 831.3 billion yuan and bond ETFs by 526.1 billion yuan in the first ten months of the year [1][7] - The number of ETFs exceeding 10 billion yuan in scale has grown, with 118 products now in the "billion club," an increase of 52 since the end of 2024 [1][10] ETF Market Growth - The total scale of the ETF market reached 5.7 trillion yuan by October 31, 2023, surpassing the 4 trillion yuan mark in April and 5 trillion yuan in August [2] - Stock ETFs account for approximately 65% of the total ETF market, with a combined scale of 3.73 trillion yuan [2][3] - The growth in stock ETFs is attributed to structural market trends and significant inflows of capital into these products [2][3] Stock ETF Performance - In the first ten months of 2023, stock ETFs saw an increase of approximately 831.3 billion yuan, with 24 products contributing over 10 billion yuan each to this growth [3][4] - Major contributors include broad-based ETFs like Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and industry-themed ETFs such as the Guotai Securities ETF and Huaxia Robotics ETF [4][5] Bond ETF Expansion - Bond ETFs have also seen substantial growth, with a total scale of 700.04 billion yuan, up from 173.97 billion yuan at the end of 2024, marking an increase of over 3 times [7][8] - The introduction of new bond ETF products and the performance of existing ones have driven this growth [7][8] Cross-Border and Other ETF Categories - Cross-border ETFs have shown rapid growth, reaching nearly 900 billion yuan, with an increase of 472.22 billion yuan since the end of 2024 [9] - Commodity and currency ETFs have also seen growth, with total scales of 216.01 billion yuan and 163.50 billion yuan, respectively [9] Competitive Landscape - The ETF market is becoming increasingly competitive, with 118 products exceeding 10 billion yuan in scale, primarily from leading firms like E Fund, Huaxia, and Harvest [10][11] - The competition is shifting towards comprehensive service capabilities and investor education, focusing on enhancing the investor experience in ETF selection and investment [11]

Core Insights - The ETF market is experiencing significant growth, with a total scale of 5.7 trillion yuan as of October 31, 2023, representing an increase of nearly 2 trillion yuan or approximately 53% since the end of 2024 [1][4][10] - Stock and bond ETFs are the main drivers of this expansion, with stock ETFs increasing by 831.18 billion yuan and bond ETFs by 526.07 billion yuan in the first ten months of the year [4][8] - The number of ETFs exceeding 10 billion yuan in scale has grown to 118, with 52 new additions since the end of 2024 [1][11] ETF Market Growth - The total scale of the ETF market reached 5.7 trillion yuan by October 31, 2023, up from 4 trillion yuan in April and 5 trillion yuan in August [4] - Stock ETFs account for approximately 65% of the total ETF market, with a combined scale of 3.73 trillion yuan [4] - The increase in stock ETFs is attributed to structural market trends and significant inflows of capital, particularly into industry-themed ETFs [4][5] Stock ETF Performance - 24 stock ETFs have seen scale increases exceeding 10 billion yuan, contributing approximately 583.5 billion yuan to the overall growth [4] - Major contributors include Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and others, with significant increases in their respective scales [4][5] Bond ETF Expansion - Bond ETFs have also seen substantial growth, with a total scale of 700.04 billion yuan, up from 173.97 billion yuan at the end of 2024, marking an increase of over 300% [8][9] - The introduction of new bond ETF products has contributed significantly to this growth, alongside the performance of existing products [8][9] Cross-Border and Other ETFs - Cross-border ETFs have shown rapid growth, reaching nearly 900 billion yuan, with an increase of 472.22 billion yuan since the end of 2024 [10] - Commodity and currency ETFs have also experienced growth, with total scales of 216.01 billion yuan and 163.50 billion yuan, respectively [10] Competitive Landscape - The ETF market is becoming increasingly competitive, with 118 products exceeding 10 billion yuan in scale, primarily from leading firms such as E Fund, Huaxia, and others [11][12] - The competition is shifting towards comprehensive service capabilities and investor education, focusing on enhancing the investor experience in ETF selection and investment [12]