2026年1月12日至22日，金沙酒业在11天内分四场召开了2026年度经销商大会。本次经销商大会一改过 往传统的大会模式，是以组织架构重塑后的销售大区为单位，邀请全国所有的经销商合作伙伴和核心营 销团队成员到厂区参加本次会议。本次会议是金沙酒业在2025年底组织变革后的首次大会，金沙酒业党 委书记、总经理李濮从营销战略和业务变革方面，以"在反思中觉醒，在变革中前行"为主题做了重要讲 话；金沙酒业党委委员、副总经理韩玉国以"韧者同行，共酿新篇"为主题深度讲解营销规划；会议务 实、深入、高效、坦诚的氛围，得到了与会人员的高度认可。 本次大会创新了会议形式，从单向宣贯改变为厂商共谋发展蓝图，开展了营销规划宣讲会、业务研讨 会、经销商战略顾问委员会会议、销售大区业务审核会等多种形式的会议，直面问题与挑战，广泛听取 意见和建议，夯实基础，破立并举，标志着金沙酒业从学习探索、战略反思走向了系统性重构的全新发 展阶段。 品牌定位上，清晰品牌核心价值定位，明确主线产品，系统性规划产品矩阵，聚焦大品种建设；重 视"金沙回沙"品牌发展，资源适度倾斜；调整品牌传播策略，以"规模广告投放+品牌活动推广"向深度 的"内容营销+场景营 ...

Core Insights - The recent dealer conference of Jinsha Liquor Company highlighted significant organizational changes and strategic shifts aimed at enhancing market performance and operational efficiency [1][4]. Organizational Structure - Jinsha Liquor will transform its organizational structure from a three-tier system to a more focused and agile "functional department + regional division" two-tier structure, significantly decentralizing decision-making authority to frontline teams [3][6]. Business Operations - The company will shift its operational focus to a sales-driven assessment model centered on terminal sales performance, refining its channel strategy into ten distinct segments, including circulation, group purchasing, new retail, and e-commerce for precise management [3][6]. Brand and Product Strategy - Jinsha Liquor aims to strengthen value creation around its two core products, "Abstract" and "Jinsha Huisha," while optimizing its overall product matrix to include a diversified range of high-end, mid-range, and budget offerings [3][6]. Cost Management - The company will implement a "short-term suspension - mid-term control - long-term efficiency" strategy for cost management, quickly halting ineffective investments and aligning expenditure with actual market outcomes such as terminal sales and scan rates [3][6]. Market and Terminal Operations - Jinsha Liquor will adopt a tiered operational strategy for core, key, and general markets, ensuring precise resource allocation. Additionally, it will enhance "direct control of terminals" and integrate business-to-consumer operations, optimizing terminal assessment and service processes with a focus on "opening bottles" [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and a significant drop in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 18.231 billion yuan, down 0.99% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 87 million yuan, down 25.05% year-on-year [1] - The Shanghai region shows signs of stabilization, while overseas performance is strong, with the company’s subsidiary, Xinlite, improving its operational situation significantly [2][3] - The gross margin has decreased, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability, with a gross margin of 15.04% in Q3 2025, down 3.02 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.759 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.04%, but reported a net loss of 130 million yuan [1] - The revenue breakdown for Q3 2025 shows liquid milk, other dairy products, and livestock products generating 3.540 billion, 1.720 billion, and 189 million yuan respectively, with liquid milk experiencing a year-on-year decline of 8.44% [2] Regional Performance - Revenue from Shanghai, the company's main market, increased by 2.58% year-on-year to 1.711 billion yuan, while revenue from other regions decreased by 7.63% [2] - The overseas market showed a positive trend with an 11.61% increase in revenue [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company’s gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 17.65%, while Q3 2025 saw a gross margin of 15.04%, reflecting ongoing cost pressures [3] - Selling expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 was 11.51%, increasing to 12.81% in Q3 2025, indicating rising costs in sales efforts [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down significantly, with net profit estimates of 337 million, 390 million, and 463 million yuan respectively, reflecting a reduction of 39.5%, 37.7%, and 34.6% from previous estimates [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 35 for 2025, 30 for 2026, and 25 for 2027, indicating a premium valuation despite the challenges [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market showed positive momentum with all three major indices rising over 1%, indicating a favorable trading environment for investors [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector closed at 2281.44 points, up 0.27%, with 12 liquor stocks experiencing gains [1] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the Shenwan liquor index is 18.94X, which is considered reasonably low at 4.69% compared to the past decade [1] - Leading liquor companies are providing attractive dividend returns, making them appealing investment options [1] Company Summary - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1443.64 CNY per share, down 0.44% [1] - Wuliangye closed at 120.25 CNY per share, down 0.03% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 183.75 CNY per share, down 0.34% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 130.15 CNY per share, down 0.07% [1] - Yanghe Brewery closed at 69.70 CNY per share, up 0.69% [1] - The terminal sales showed a mild recovery in September, and the third quarter of 2025 is expected to accelerate inventory clearance [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.391 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.24% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 190 million yuan, down 23.01% [1] - In Q2 2025, total revenue reached 749 million yuan, an increase of 21.93% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 115 million yuan, up 62.72% [1] - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 586 million, 656 million, and 721 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of -6.13%, 11.89%, and 9.89% [4] Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, offline and online channel revenues were 974 million and 407 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -19.60% and +60.11% [2] - In Q2 2025, offline and online channel revenues grew by 9.54% and 66.69% year-on-year [2] - The company reported revenue from various product categories, with hot pot condiments at 428 million yuan (-12.85% YoY) and recipe-style condiments at 896 million yuan (+1.06% YoY) [2] Geographic Performance - In H1 2025, revenue growth was notable in the eastern region, with a year-on-year increase of 29.35%, while other regions experienced declines [2] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 38.70%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.66%, down 3.16 percentage points [3] - In Q2 2025, the gross margin improved to 36.96%, an increase of 3.63 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 15.39%, up 3.86 percentage points [3]