中邮证券发布研报称，优然牧业(09858)受益于奶牛存栏持续去化及牛肉价格显著上涨，淘牛利润有望 显著增厚。同时，乳企布局深加工产能有效调节市场供给，有望进一步加速行业产能出清，共同推动 2026年原奶价格复苏。维持"买入"评级。 中邮证券主要观点如下： 奶牛存栏持续出清，26年原奶价格有望复苏 盈利预测与投资建议 头部乳企纷纷布局相关赛道，君乐宝与西诺迪斯合作推出高端稀奶油，伊利、蒙牛聚焦原制奶酪品类发 力，妙可蓝多（600882）持续扩大原制奶酪产能，光明等企业也通过新品迭代丰富深加工矩阵。行业内 多个深加工项目陆续开建或投产，既延伸了产业链价值，又能灵活承接原奶供给，在存栏去化的同时保 障行业稳定发展，推动奶业向高质量转型。 25年牛肉价格开始反转，公司淘牛利润有望增厚 根据iFind，国内牛肉平均批发价从2月份的57元/kg增长至12月份的66元/kg，增幅达到15.79%。为了优 化种群结构适配长期发展，牧场每年会淘汰部分成母牛，淘汰牛的价格与市场牛肉价格有关。在牛肉价 格上行阶段，牧场的淘牛利润有望跟随上涨，该部分收益主要体现在生物资产公允价值的变动中。未来 随着牛肉价格的进一步上涨，该行预计公司 ...

Core Insights - The company is experiencing accelerated revenue growth and significant profit improvement due to a low base, with substantial long-term penetration potential in the cheese category [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million yuan, up 106.88%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 120 million yuan, reflecting a 92.44% increase. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 1.39 billion yuan, a 14.22% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 43 million yuan, up 214.67%, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 17 million yuan, increasing by 224.22% [2]. Cheese Business Growth - The cheese segment reported revenue of 1.166 billion yuan in Q3 2025, growing 22% year-on-year, outpacing overall revenue growth. The liquid milk business saw a contraction. The company is expanding its B-end channels and improving its C-end offerings, with expectations for a natural recovery in C-end demand to enhance product structure and gross margins [3]. Market Expansion and Innovation - The company maintains a strong growth trajectory in the B-end while ensuring stable performance in the C-end. It is innovating product channels and expanding into new market segments, including family dining and various retail formats. The dual-brand strategy in the B-end is yielding complementary benefits, with significant growth in customized products. As a leader in the cheese industry, the company is well-positioned to continue launching new products and enhancing category penetration [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and a significant drop in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 18.231 billion yuan, down 0.99% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 87 million yuan, down 25.05% year-on-year [1] - The Shanghai region shows signs of stabilization, while overseas performance is strong, with the company’s subsidiary, Xinlite, improving its operational situation significantly [2][3] - The gross margin has decreased, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability, with a gross margin of 15.04% in Q3 2025, down 3.02 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.759 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.04%, but reported a net loss of 130 million yuan [1] - The revenue breakdown for Q3 2025 shows liquid milk, other dairy products, and livestock products generating 3.540 billion, 1.720 billion, and 189 million yuan respectively, with liquid milk experiencing a year-on-year decline of 8.44% [2] Regional Performance - Revenue from Shanghai, the company's main market, increased by 2.58% year-on-year to 1.711 billion yuan, while revenue from other regions decreased by 7.63% [2] - The overseas market showed a positive trend with an 11.61% increase in revenue [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company’s gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 17.65%, while Q3 2025 saw a gross margin of 15.04%, reflecting ongoing cost pressures [3] - Selling expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 was 11.51%, increasing to 12.81% in Q3 2025, indicating rising costs in sales efforts [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down significantly, with net profit estimates of 337 million, 390 million, and 463 million yuan respectively, reflecting a reduction of 39.5%, 37.7%, and 34.6% from previous estimates [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 35 for 2025, 30 for 2026, and 25 for 2027, indicating a premium valuation despite the challenges [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Laoshenshijia Health Technology Development Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Laoshenshijia"), founded by dairy veteran Guo Benheng, has filed for bankruptcy liquidation after struggling in the cheese industry for three years, with the first creditors' meeting scheduled for October 23, 2025 [1][2][8]. Company Overview - Laoshenshijia was established in 2022 by Guo Benheng, former general manager of Bright Dairy, and initially attracted attention due to investments from companies like Jingpai and Junlebao [2][5]. - Guo Benheng, born in 1963 and a food science PhD, previously held significant positions at Bright Dairy before founding Laoshenshijia [5][6]. Financial and Operational Challenges - The company faced a slowdown in the cheese market, complicated product health concepts, and high pricing strategies that hindered consumer acceptance, leading to operational difficulties as early as 2024 [1][8]. - Laoshenshijia's business model relied heavily on e-commerce promotions, which resulted in significant losses despite high sales volumes [8][9]. Market Strategy and Performance - Laoshenshijia aimed to redefine cheese in China with innovative products targeting children and women, but the complexity of their health concepts and high prices led to poor market reception [7][9]. - The company was reported to have engaged in unsustainable sales practices, such as selling products at a loss to generate volume, which ultimately did not foster customer loyalty [8][9]. Industry Context - The cheese market in China has been experiencing a downturn since 2021, with many small brands exiting the market due to rising costs and intense competition [14]. - Data from Nielsen indicates that cheese retail sales in China grew from 32.38 billion yuan in 2020 to 43.37 billion yuan in 2022, but the growth rate significantly slowed [14]. - The market has seen a consolidation, with only about ten major brands remaining, making it increasingly difficult for new entrants to gain a foothold [14][15]. Future Outlook - Despite Laoshenshijia's struggles, the cheese market is expected to evolve, with potential growth in B2B segments and new product innovations targeting adult consumers [15][16]. - The demand for original cheese products is anticipated to rise, as domestic production capabilities improve and consumer preferences shift towards healthier options [17][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.567 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.98%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 133 million yuan, up 86.27% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 102 million yuan, an increase of 80.10% year-on-year [1][3]. - The growth in revenue is driven by cheese products, with significant contributions from the ready-to-eat nutrition series and the restaurant industrial series [3]. - The company has implemented cost-cutting measures, resulting in a gross margin of 30.81% in H1 2025, an increase of 0.91 percentage points year-on-year, and a significant reduction in sales expense ratio [3]. - The company is expected to maintain a high growth rate in profits for the second half of the year, with projected EPS of 0.41, 0.57, and 0.82 yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 66X, 48X, and 33X respectively [3][4]. Financial Summary - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from liquid milk, cheese, and dairy product trading was 187 million yuan, 2.136 billion yuan, and 230 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.63%, 14.85%, and 3.69% [3]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 30.81%, with a net profit margin of 5.18%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.18 percentage points [3]. - The company has forecasted total revenue of 5.38 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.1% [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to experience accelerated revenue growth, driven by both consumer (C-end) and business (B-end) segments, with a focus on its cheese strategy and cost control measures [8] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted to 5.37 billion, 6.16 billion, and 7.12 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.87%, 14.71%, and 15.58% respectively [8] - The net profit forecast for the same period has been revised to 282.23 million, 382.69 million, and 486.42 million RMB, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 148.40%, 35.59%, and 27.10% [8] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.567 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.98%, and a net profit of 133 million RMB, up 86.27% [8] - The company's cheese business has shown comprehensive growth, with total revenue from three major cheese series increasing by 14.85% in the first half of the year [8] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 improved to 30.81%, with a net profit margin of 5.18%, reflecting an upward trend [8][9] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on a dual-driven strategy for both B2C and B2B markets, enhancing its product matrix to cater to various consumer needs and expanding into high-potential channels [8] - New product launches in the ready-to-eat cheese segment and customized products for membership supermarkets are expected to contribute to ongoing revenue growth [8] - The company has implemented a "cost control strategy" that has led to significant improvements in gross sales margins and a reduction in sales expense ratios [8]

Core Insights - The Chinese cheese market is experiencing a shift towards processed cheese, with a significant preference for softer and richer flavors among consumers [1][6] - The retail sales of processed cheese have increased to 73.4% from 2017 to 2023, indicating a growing trend towards this product type [1] - The market for processed cheese is projected to reach 9.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [11] Processed Cheese Market - Processed cheese, also known as reconstituted cheese, is made from one or two types of natural cheese and is characterized by its mild flavor and longer shelf life [6] - The market for processed cheese is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.7% from 2018 to 2024, with a market size of 3.7 billion yuan in 2024 [5][11] - The product categories in the processed cheese segment include spreadable processed cheese and other forms such as cheese sticks and processed cheese shreds [7] Natural Cheese Market - Natural cheese, often referred to as original cheese, is categorized into hard and soft cheeses, with hard cheese containing 49%-56% moisture and high nutritional value [2] - The market for natural cheese is growing, but at a slower pace compared to processed cheese, with a projected market size of 3.7 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.8% year-on-year growth [5]

Group 1 - The cheese consumption penetration rate in China is significantly lower than that in Japan, South Korea, the UK, and the US, indicating a large growth potential for the industry [1][2] - The current per capita cheese consumption in China is only 0.2 kg, compared to Japan's 1.8 kg, suggesting substantial room for improvement [2] - The domestic cheese market is still in its growth phase, with a stable competitive landscape and low self-sufficiency rate, necessitating the release of local production capacity [1][2] Group 2 - The leading company, Miaokelando, is expected to enhance its market position through channel integration and cost reduction in the short term, while focusing on deep processing for long-term growth [2] - Miaokelando maintains a leading market share and is strengthening its competitive advantage through partnerships with Mengniu and continuous product innovation [2] - The company is diversifying its distribution channels and expanding collaborations with restaurants and industrial enterprises to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [4][10]. Core Views - The company is actively enriching its product matrix and strengthening its ambient products, enhancing C-end channel diversification and B-end channel synergy after integrating Mengniu Cheese, leading to a significant improvement in profitability for H1 2025 [2][10]. - The company expects a notable increase in net profit for H1 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120-145 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 56.29%-88.86% [10]. - The integration of Mengniu Cheese has strengthened synergy across the entire operation, from procurement to sales, enhancing efficiency and profitability [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is 5,322 million yuan, with projections of 4,844 million yuan for 2024, and expected growth to 5,313 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 9.7% increase [3][11]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 60 million yuan in 2023 to 225 million yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 97.7% [3][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.12 yuan in 2023 to 0.44 yuan in 2025, with a projected net asset return rate of 4.9% in 2025 [3][11]. Market Data - The company's target price is set at 33.20 yuan, with a current price of 28.34 yuan [4][10]. - The market capitalization is approximately 14,512 million yuan, with a 52-week price range of 11.78-32.69 yuan [5][10]. Financial Ratios - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 241.60 in 2023 to 64.61 in 2025, indicating improved valuation [3][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 1.3% in 2023 to 4.9% in 2025, reflecting enhanced profitability [3][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company is enhancing its product matrix and strengthening its ambient product offerings, integrating Mengniu Cheese to diversify C-end channels and synergize B-end channels, leading to a significant improvement in profitability by H1 2025 [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The investment rating has been upgraded to "Buy." The company's EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 0.44 (+0.01), 0.64 (+0.01), and 0.85 (+0.01) yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 97.7%, 46.8%, and 32.6% respectively [2]. - The company expects a significant increase in profitability for H1 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120-145 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.29%-88.86%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be 90-115 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 58.22%-102.16% [2]. - Following the acquisition of Mengniu Cheese, the company reported a year-on-year net profit growth of 68.10%-103.12% when compared to adjusted data, with a similar growth rate for net profit excluding non-recurring items [2]. Product and Channel Innovation - The company is focusing on its core cheese business, continuously enriching and optimizing its product matrix. The C-end cheese sticks are expanding from low-temperature to ambient products, with new product forms being introduced to enhance coverage in family dining and ready-to-eat nutrition scenarios [3]. - The B-end operates dual brands with complementary products, leveraging Mengniu Cheese's strengths in cream and butter, while Miaokelando's main B-end products include mozzarella, cheese slices, and original cheese, enhancing collaborative synergies [3]. - The C-end channel strategy is evolving from a focus on key accounts to a more diversified approach, actively expanding into growth channels such as snack retail, membership stores, and convenience stores, while strengthening partnerships with restaurants and industrial enterprises in the B-end [3]. Integration and Efficiency Enhancement - The integration of Mengniu Cheese has strengthened collaboration across the entire value chain, from upstream procurement to downstream sales, enhancing operational management and brand effects [3]. - The company is advancing refined and precise management operations, with expectations of further improvements in net profit margins through enhanced sales and management efficiency [3].