赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [妙Ta可bl蓝e_多Sto(c6k0A0n8d8Ra2n)k] 上次评级 买入 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] BC 双轮驱动，提质增效显利润 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 投资评级 买入 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma发ry布] 2025 年半年报。25H1，公司实现营业收入 25.67 亿元， 同比+7.98%；归母净利润 1.33 亿元，同比+86.27%；实现扣非归母净利润 1.02 亿元，同比+80.10%。其中，25Q2 公司实现营业收入 13.34 亿元，同 比+9.62%；归母净利润 5057 万元，同比+53.06%。 点评： 风险因素：食品安全问题，行业竞争加剧 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 奶酪推 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饮料乳品 妙可蓝多（600882） 2025 年中报点评：BC 双驱，成长确立 2025 年 08 月 22 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,322 | 4,844 | 5,370 | 6,160 | 7,120 | | 同比（%） | 10.20 | (8.99) | 10.87 | 14.71 | 15.58 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 60.07 | 113.62 | 282.23 | 382.69 | 486.42 | | 同比（%） | (56.35) | 89.16 | 148.40 | 35.59 | 27.10 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.55 | 0.75 | 0.95 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 237.93 | 125.78 | 50.64 | 37.34 | 29.38 | [关 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese cheese market is experiencing a shift towards processed cheese, with a significant preference for softer and richer flavors among consumers [1][6] - The retail sales of processed cheese have increased to 73.4% from 2017 to 2023, indicating a growing trend towards this product type [1] - The market for processed cheese is projected to reach 9.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [11] Processed Cheese Market - Processed cheese, also known as reconstituted cheese, is made from one or two types of natural cheese and is characterized by its mild flavor and longer shelf life [6] - The market for processed cheese is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.7% from 2018 to 2024, with a market size of 3.7 billion yuan in 2024 [5][11] - The product categories in the processed cheese segment include spreadable processed cheese and other forms such as cheese sticks and processed cheese shreds [7] Natural Cheese Market - Natural cheese, often referred to as original cheese, is categorized into hard and soft cheeses, with hard cheese containing 49%-56% moisture and high nutritional value [2] - The market for natural cheese is growing, but at a slower pace compared to processed cheese, with a projected market size of 3.7 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.8% year-on-year growth [5]

Group 1 - The cheese consumption penetration rate in China is significantly lower than that in Japan, South Korea, the UK, and the US, indicating a large growth potential for the industry [1][2] - The current per capita cheese consumption in China is only 0.2 kg, compared to Japan's 1.8 kg, suggesting substantial room for improvement [2] - The domestic cheese market is still in its growth phase, with a stable competitive landscape and low self-sufficiency rate, necessitating the release of local production capacity [1][2] Group 2 - The leading company, Miaokelando, is expected to enhance its market position through channel integration and cost reduction in the short term, while focusing on deep processing for long-term growth [2] - Miaokelando maintains a leading market share and is strengthening its competitive advantage through partnerships with Mengniu and continuous product innovation [2] - The company is diversifying its distribution channels and expanding collaborations with restaurants and industrial enterprises to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [4][10]. Core Views - The company is actively enriching its product matrix and strengthening its ambient products, enhancing C-end channel diversification and B-end channel synergy after integrating Mengniu Cheese, leading to a significant improvement in profitability for H1 2025 [2][10]. - The company expects a notable increase in net profit for H1 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120-145 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 56.29%-88.86% [10]. - The integration of Mengniu Cheese has strengthened synergy across the entire operation, from procurement to sales, enhancing efficiency and profitability [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is 5,322 million yuan, with projections of 4,844 million yuan for 2024, and expected growth to 5,313 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 9.7% increase [3][11]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 60 million yuan in 2023 to 225 million yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 97.7% [3][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.12 yuan in 2023 to 0.44 yuan in 2025, with a projected net asset return rate of 4.9% in 2025 [3][11]. Market Data - The company's target price is set at 33.20 yuan, with a current price of 28.34 yuan [4][10]. - The market capitalization is approximately 14,512 million yuan, with a 52-week price range of 11.78-32.69 yuan [5][10]. Financial Ratios - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 241.60 in 2023 to 64.61 in 2025, indicating improved valuation [3][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 1.3% in 2023 to 4.9% in 2025, reflecting enhanced profitability [3][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company is enhancing its product matrix and strengthening its ambient product offerings, integrating Mengniu Cheese to diversify C-end channels and synergize B-end channels, leading to a significant improvement in profitability by H1 2025 [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The investment rating has been upgraded to "Buy." The company's EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 0.44 (+0.01), 0.64 (+0.01), and 0.85 (+0.01) yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 97.7%, 46.8%, and 32.6% respectively [2]. - The company expects a significant increase in profitability for H1 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120-145 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.29%-88.86%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be 90-115 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 58.22%-102.16% [2]. - Following the acquisition of Mengniu Cheese, the company reported a year-on-year net profit growth of 68.10%-103.12% when compared to adjusted data, with a similar growth rate for net profit excluding non-recurring items [2]. Product and Channel Innovation - The company is focusing on its core cheese business, continuously enriching and optimizing its product matrix. The C-end cheese sticks are expanding from low-temperature to ambient products, with new product forms being introduced to enhance coverage in family dining and ready-to-eat nutrition scenarios [3]. - The B-end operates dual brands with complementary products, leveraging Mengniu Cheese's strengths in cream and butter, while Miaokelando's main B-end products include mozzarella, cheese slices, and original cheese, enhancing collaborative synergies [3]. - The C-end channel strategy is evolving from a focus on key accounts to a more diversified approach, actively expanding into growth channels such as snack retail, membership stores, and convenience stores, while strengthening partnerships with restaurants and industrial enterprises in the B-end [3]. Integration and Efficiency Enhancement - The integration of Mengniu Cheese has strengthened collaboration across the entire value chain, from upstream procurement to downstream sales, enhancing operational management and brand effects [3]. - The company is advancing refined and precise management operations, with expectations of further improvements in net profit margins through enhanced sales and management efficiency [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is enhancing its C-end channel diversification and B-end channel synergy after integrating Mengniu Cheese, aiming to enrich its product matrix and strengthen ambient products, which, along with optimized management and improved cost efficiency, is expected to drive a performance turnaround [1]. Investment Highlights - The company is initiating coverage with a "cautious buy" rating, focusing on product innovation and matrix enrichment, accelerating C-end channel diversification, and increasing B-end expansion post-Mengniu integration. Improved management precision is anticipated to significantly enhance net profit margins. EPS is projected to be 0.43, 0.63, and 0.84 yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 94.4%, 45.4%, and 34.6% respectively. Given the expected improvement in net profit margins and substantial growth potential compared to peers, a valuation of 3.1X P/S for 2025 is suggested, corresponding to a fair value of 31.92 yuan per share [2]. Product and Channel Innovation - The company is focusing on its core cheese business, continuously enriching and optimizing its product matrix. C-end cheese sticks are expanding from low-temperature to ambient products, with new product forms being introduced. The B-end operates dual brands with complementary products, leveraging Mengniu's strengths in cream and butter, while the main brand excels in mozzarella, cheese slices, and original cheese. The C-end is diversifying from key accounts to include growth channels like snack wholesale, membership stores, and convenience stores, while the B-end is expanding collaborations with food service and industrial companies. Following Mengniu's acquisition in 2021, the number of retail terminal outlets increased from 600,000 in 2021 to approximately 800,000 in 2022, with further expansion expected [3]. Synergy and Efficiency Enhancement - After integrating Mengniu Cheese, the company is strengthening synergy and mutual empowerment across the entire value chain, from upstream procurement to downstream sales and management. The company is actively promoting refined and precise management operations, with expectations of a noticeable improvement in net profit margins through enhanced sales and management efficiency [3].

Group 1 - The domestic cheese industry is gradually moving out of the price war impact of cheese sticks and is beginning to regain growth through transformation towards snackification and entering the B-end market [1][3] - Major cheese companies in China are shifting their growth strategies towards new snack scenarios and the B-end market, particularly in response to the challenges faced during the price wars [3][5] - In 2024, Miaokelando reported a revenue of 4.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 9% year-on-year, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, an increase of 89.2% [3][5] Group 2 - The ready-to-eat nutrition series, including cheese sticks, saw significant revenue declines in 2022 and 2023 due to market competition, but in 2024, this segment's revenue grew by 3.2% to 2.05 billion yuan [5] - The retail cheese market's sales decreased by 8.7% in the first quarter of 2025, but the decline is narrowing, with adult snack cheese showing high growth [5][6] - Companies are expanding their product offerings to cover all age groups and new consumption scenarios, including office snacks and fitness supplements [5][6] Group 3 - The cheese market in China is expected to follow trends seen in Japan, where cheese consumption has increased significantly due to aging demographics and the rise of Western-style dining [7] - The competition is shifting to the supply chain level, with domestic cheese companies relying heavily on imported raw materials, which poses new challenges [8][10] - In the first four months of 2025, China imported 63,000 tons of cheese, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, primarily from New Zealand and Australia [8][10] Group 4 - Domestic dairy companies are exploring the production of raw cheese to reduce reliance on imports, with Miaokelando constructing a raw cheese factory expected to be operational by 2026 [10][11] - The construction of raw cheese factories can help stabilize the cyclical fluctuations of the dairy industry by converting excess fresh milk into high-value cheese products [10][11] - The long-term economic viability of domestic raw cheese production remains uncertain due to fluctuating milk prices [11]

Group 1 - The China Dairy Industry Association held its 31st annual meeting and the 2025 China Dairy Technology Expo in Nanjing, Jiangsu, showcasing Tetra Pak's innovative packaging solutions and deep processing technologies for dairy products [1] - Tetra Pak's Greater China President emphasized the growing consumer demand for nutrition and health, indicating a shift towards a more precise approach in the dairy industry [1] - The China Nutrition Society released a report highlighting the nutritional health issues faced by the elderly population, stressing the importance of early planning and scientific intervention for nutritional supplementation [1] Group 2 - The diversification of lifestyles has led to new consumption scenarios for dairy products, prompting Tetra Pak to present innovative packaging solutions suitable for various contexts, including small-capacity packaging for snacks and sustainable packaging options [2] - Experts noted that dairy products need to evolve from traditional liquid consumption to a more integrated "drink + food" model, reflecting changing consumer preferences for taste, emotional value, and nutritional functionality [2] - Tetra Pak's deep processing technology supports the transformation of dairy products, enabling the separation and recombination of native components to enhance product experience and brand upgrade [2]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Dairy Technology Expo highlighted the rapid growth of precision nutrition solutions in the dairy industry, with companies like Yili, Mengniu, Feihe, and Miaokelando launching targeted products [1][3][4] - The demand for dairy products is shifting from basic nutrition to functional segmentation, with a focus on high-protein, probiotic, and low-sugar options [3][5] - The Chinese dairy industry is seeking structural transformation due to declining milk prices and oversupply, with a trend towards quality, health, branding, and premiumization [5][6] Group 1: Industry Trends - Precision nutrition is expected to reach a peak by 2028, with market size projected to hit between 1000 billion to 1500 billion [9] - The dairy industry is experiencing a shift towards cheese production, which is seen as a significant opportunity to consume excess raw milk [6][7] - The market for special medical foods in China is projected to exceed 48 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 30% [9] Group 2: Company Innovations - Yili has introduced a range of functional nutrition products inspired by traditional wisdom, addressing health needs such as gut health and blood sugar management [3][5] - Mengniu is focusing on scientific innovation to create customized products for various demographics, including seniors and fitness enthusiasts [3][5] - Feihe launched the first domestic database for human milk oligosaccharides (HMOs), enhancing research capabilities in maternal nutrition [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Chinese dairy market is currently dominated by foreign brands in the special medical food sector, but domestic companies are increasing their product offerings [8][9] - The cheese market in China is underdeveloped compared to other countries, presenting a significant growth opportunity as consumer preferences evolve [6][7] - The overall dairy consumption per capita in China is declining, indicating a need for innovative products to stimulate demand [5]