Group 1 - The possibility of a zero interest rate era is discussed, with examples from Japan, the US, and Europe, raising the question of whether China could also experience this situation as its one-year interest rate is already below 1% [2] - China's economic downward pressure has been evident since 2012, with GDP growth rates declining from double digits, indicating a shift in economic dynamics, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand [2] - The reliance on external demand to supplement internal demand is diminishing, especially with the impact of trade wars, suggesting that the zero interest rate era may not be far off for China [2] Group 2 - In a potential zero interest rate era, individuals are advised to avoid risky investments, as overall asset values are expected to shrink, making a conservative investment approach more favorable [4] - The zero interest rate environment is often associated with economic depression, as seen during the Great Depression in the US, where unemployment surged, posing significant challenges for the middle class [4] - The focus should be on job security rather than maintaining dignity, as employment becomes the priority in a challenging economic landscape [4] Group 3 - The greatest pressure is on debt, with the need for balance sheet cleaning being more critical than merely lowering deposit rates, as seen in historical cases during financial crises [6] - The average wage level in society may decline significantly during a depression, leading to a situation where cash becomes more valuable compared to assets [8] - In a deflationary context, even with zero interest rates on deposits, holding cash may be a safer option as purchasing power could increase [8]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic outlook is heavily influenced by political factors, with uncertainty prevailing in the current political climate in the U.S. [7][10] - The expectation of a recession is widespread, leading to a cautious approach among investors, who are looking for opportunities to buy at lower prices [16][17] - The current investment environment is perceived as deteriorating, with a lack of clear, actionable investment opportunities [17][18] Group 2 - The copper market is experiencing a stable demand despite the ongoing tariff discussions, with expectations that the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on copper [21][22] - The U.S. is working to restore supply chains, which is seen as a positive development for the copper market [22] - The overall inventory levels for copper are low in SHFE and LME, while Comex inventories are high, indicating a complex market dynamic [24][26] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations due to new debt issuance and ongoing economic uncertainties, with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds losing their traditional role as a safe haven [38][39] - The narrative around tariffs is evolving, with market participants beginning to price in the impacts of tariffs on equities [41][48] - The overall asset returns across various categories have been strong since 2023, influenced by fiscal easing and global central bank rate cuts [46][50]