重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 2025年临近尾声，投资者的目光已开始投向2026年。2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，中国股票市场 将面临怎样的宏观环境与产业风向？哪些资产有望成为明年的投资主线？ 外资观点历来是观测市场方向的一个风向标。近期，多家外资机构相继发布了对中国宏观经济与资本市 场的年度展望。其中一个普遍共识是，2026年政策仍将持续发力，以营造稳定向好的宏观环境，但中国 股票市场定价的逻辑将发生变化。 宏观："稳增长"与结构"再平衡" 宏观层面，外资机构普遍预期 ，2026年的宏观政策将以"稳增长"和结构"再平衡"为主。 经济增长目标 预计维持在5%左右，以保障"十五五"实现平稳开局。增长动力上，出口有望继续保持韧性，消费与投 资在政策支持下逐步回稳，房地产对经济的拖累料将继续减轻。 相较于总量增长，通胀指标的变化更值得关注。 市场对明年通胀回升带动名义GDP改善已形成共识， 但对GDP平减指数（反映价格水平变动）转正时点仍有分歧。这主要源于两大不确定性：一是宏观政策 的支持力度 ...

Industry Events - The 2025 China 5G + Industrial Internet Conference will be held from November 21 to 23 in Wuhan, focusing on the integration of 5G, AI, big data, and industrial internet technologies [2] - The China Rare Earth Society's 2025 Academic Annual Meeting will take place on November 21 in Xiamen, discussing advancements in rare earth research and applications [2] - Huawei will release breakthrough AI technology on November 21, aiming to increase the utilization rate of computing resources from the industry average of 30%-40% to 70% [2] - Foxconn will showcase new products in collaboration with Nvidia during the Hon Hai Technology Day on November 21 [2] Company News - Walmart announced its transition from the New York Stock Exchange to Nasdaq, with trading expected to begin on December 9 [12] - Tuojing Technology's major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 843.49 million shares, representing 3% of the total share capital, from December 12, 2025, to March 11, 2026 [12] - Qianyuan High-Tech received a takeover offer from China Seed Group for 20% of its total shares at a price of 11.85 yuan per share, totaling an estimated 2.245 billion yuan [12] - Fosun Pharma's subsidiary has received breakthrough therapy designation for its independently developed drug for gastric cancer, marking a significant milestone in treatment options [12] - *ST Weihai signed a construction contract worth 313 million yuan, which is expected to positively impact the company's future performance [12][13] Market Trends - Multiple new energy-themed ETFs have attracted significant capital inflows, with the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Battery Theme ETF seeing a net subscription of 1.696 billion yuan since the fourth quarter began [16] - Institutional investors are focusing on rebalancing their portfolios as the year-end approaches, with an emphasis on sectors like cyclical stocks and consumer goods [8][7] Supply and Demand Insights - Tungsten prices continue to rise due to favorable supply and demand dynamics, with prices for various tungsten products increasing by approximately 6% compared to the first half of November [10] - The overall price of tungsten products has surged over 120% this year, driven by increased demand from industries such as photovoltaics and automotive [10]

Market Overview - The market opened high but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.4% and the CSI 300 down by 0.51%. The total trading volume for the A-shares was approximately 1.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.02 trillion yuan from the previous day [1]. Company Earnings - Nvidia's Q3 FY2026 earnings report showed revenue of $57.01 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $55.19 billion. The data center revenue was $51.2 billion, above the expected $49.34 billion, while gaming revenue was $4.3 billion, slightly below the expected $4.42 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.30, surpassing the forecast of $1.25. Nvidia expects Q4 revenue to be around $65 billion, higher than the analyst expectation of $61.66 billion [3]. Semiconductor Industry - The Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs announced the suspension of an administrative order against Nexperia. The Chinese side welcomed this move but noted that it is only a first step towards resolving the underlying issues affecting the global semiconductor supply chain. The erroneous court ruling that stripped Wingtech of control over Nexperia remains a significant obstacle to a comprehensive solution [4]. Economic Indicators - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has decreased, with the dollar index surpassing the 100 mark. The U.S. Labor Department announced that it will no longer release the October non-farm payroll report, and the November data will be delayed until after the December FOMC meeting. This situation limits the Fed's access to key economic data that could influence its neutral stance [5]. Market Sentiment - Since November, a structural "rebalancing" has been observed in global stock markets, with funds rotating from previously leading technology sectors to lower-performing sectors such as resources, consumption, and pharmaceuticals. The lingering effects of the U.S. government shutdown continue to impact global liquidity and risk appetite. Despite the government reopening, negative impacts from the absence of economic data have not dissipated immediately. Additionally, pessimism regarding the "AI bubble" is affecting valuations of global tech stocks [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition of the Chinese economy from a phase of demographic and institutional dividends to a new balance focused on quality growth rather than speed, emphasizing the need for higher efficiency, precise distribution, and effective risk management [1] Group 1: Economic Transition - The shift from "high savings, weak consumption" to "strong consumption + strong services" is essential for making the middle-income group a new economic engine [3] - Financial strategies need to evolve from reliance on real estate to embracing innovation and improving livelihoods, with macro-prudential measures to mitigate cyclical fluctuations [3] - The restructuring of rules to balance fairness and efficiency is crucial, including increasing labor income share, enhancing public services, and optimizing the business environment [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - The combination of structural rebalancing and institutional upgrading is expected to accelerate growth on a more stable trajectory, suggesting that a new "Chinese miracle" remains achievable [3] - The departure of demographic dividends is framed not as an end but as the beginning of a "new balance" in the economy [3]