随着美联储的准备金余额七周连降并跌破3万亿美元大关，市场对于流动性紧张的担忧正在加剧。 根据美联储周四公布的数据，截至9月24日当周，美国银行业准备金减少了约210亿美元，至2.9997万亿 美元，在连续第七周下跌后，降至今年1月1日以来的最低水平。这一关键指标的下降，是美联储量化紧 缩与美国财政部大规模发债共同作用下，金融体系流动性持续流失的直接体现。 与此同时，本周，作为美联储主要政策利率的联邦基金有效利率在目标区间内小幅走高，这是一个预示 着金融环境趋紧的早期信号。 尽管美联储主席鲍威尔上周表示准备金仍处于"充裕"水平，但金融市场的迹象表明，临界点可能比决策 者预期的更近。这一趋势正迫使市场重新评估美联储停止缩表（QT）的时间表，并密切关注任何可能 出现的资金紧张迹象。 当前金融体系流动性的持续流失，主要源于两大因素的叠加。 缩表与发债夹击下的流动性流失 美联储走到十字路口 面对日益显现的流动性紧缩迹象，美联储正面临艰难抉择。 鲍威尔上周称，银行准备金余额仍处于"充裕"状态，并预计缩表将持续到准备金降至"充足"水平。尽管 他承认，目前正越来越接近这一水平，但并未给出明确的停止信号。 联邦基金利率微升，市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main theme of global asset allocation in the post-pandemic era is the "American exceptionalism," characterized by a lack of significant financial tightening despite the highest interest rate hike cycle since the 1970s, leading to questions about the real impact of these rate hikes on the economy and corporate operations [1][2]. Summary by Sections Resident Sector - The ratio of mortgage payments to disposable income is currently at 11.3%, lower than the 11.7% level at the end of 2019, indicating strong consumer spending from 2022 to 2024 [2]. Corporate Sector - The credit spread of corporate bonds has been declining since the second half of 2022, remaining at historical lows, which facilitates easy corporate financing. Profit growth has accelerated compared to pre-pandemic levels, and debt repayment metrics have improved [2][3]. Liquidity Environment - The liquidity premium in the U.S. has not reached extreme levels, indicating a generally loose liquidity environment. A significant risk event occurred in March 2023 with the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) incident, but it was quickly addressed by the FDIC [2][3]. Debt Maturity Challenges - A significant issue arises as corporate bonds issued in 2020 will mature in large volumes by 2025, forcing companies to either refinance at higher costs or use cash reserves, which may lead to reduced capital expenditures [4][5]. Upcoming Liquidity Tightening - The second quarter of 2025 will see a historical peak in corporate debt maturities, with over $600 billion due, representing a 70% increase compared to the average for the second half of 2024. The average financing cost for these debts is estimated at 3.6%, while refinancing could increase costs by 190 basis points [5][6]. Potential Credit Spread Increase - The current liquidity environment is relatively fragile, and if it coincides with the debt maturity peak, there is a risk of a rapid increase in credit spreads. Historical data suggests that peaks in corporate bond spreads typically lag the last rate hike by about 24 months [6][7]. Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Reduction - The liquidity buffer provided by the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ONRRP) has significantly decreased, and the ongoing balance sheet reduction (QT) has led to a noticeable reduction in excess reserves within the banking system [7][8]. Debt Ceiling and Liquidity Risks - The approval of a new debt ceiling bill around mid-year could lead to a temporary tightening of liquidity. The U.S. Treasury has already utilized 70% of its "extraordinary measures" to maintain government operations, with a potential liquidity crunch expected around the "X-date" in June [8][9]. Market Expectations on QT - There are differing expectations in the market regarding the timing of the end of QT, with some Federal Reserve officials suggesting a pause until the debt ceiling issue is resolved. Delays in ending QT could further pressure liquidity [9]. Overall Market Outlook - The risk of tightening liquidity in the second quarter cannot be ignored, and U.S. equities may face another round of adjustments. Recent liquidity crises, such as the SVB incident, have shown that market reactions can be swift and significant [9].