李强主持召开国务院常务会议 国务院总理李强2025年12月31日主持召开国务院常务会议。会议指出，跨境贸易便利化是营造一流营商 环境的重要内容。要促进跨境物流高效畅通，加强通道间及运输方式间对接，深化沿海内陆沿边地区多 式联运进出境协同。要推动绿色贸易、跨境电商等新业态新模式发展，优化特殊商品监管，支持综合保 税区开展保税检测业务。要提升智慧化监管服务水平，深化智慧海关、智慧口岸建设，推进国际贸 易"单一窗口"跨境互联互通。要加强口岸联防联控，严把进出口商品质量关，确保通得快、管得住。 港股2026年开门红！ 1月2日，港股全线大涨，截至收盘，恒生指数涨2.76%，恒生科技指数涨4.00%。中信建投最新研报指 出，展望2026年，全球流动性宽松格局进一步深化，三重因素共同驱动美元弱势周期；与此同时，国内 金融市场政策红利持续增厚，个人投资者入市的动力正在增强，A股市场增量资金有望覆盖更大基础。 整体来看，支持牛市的核心逻辑预计仍将延续甚至强化。 巴菲特正式退休 当地时间2025年12月31日，著名投资人沃伦·巴菲特正式退休，从知名投资机构伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的 首席执行官岗位上卸任。沃伦·巴菲特1930年8月 ...

中信建投研报称，核心逻辑尚未改变本轮牛市以政策转向为起点，以流动性改善为核心，同时受到科技 产业景气突破、中美博弈态势变化和全球资产配置调整等多方面因素共同作用。展望2026年，全球流动 性宽松格局进一步深化，三重因素共同驱动美元弱势周期；与此同时，国内金融市场政策红利持续增 厚，个人投资者入市的动力正在增强，A股市场增量资金有望覆盖更大基础。整体来看，支持牛市的核 心逻辑预计仍将延续甚至强化。 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | 1、离岸人民币升破 | 6.99 | 元。近几年大量出口商将美元收入放在海外，并未调入国 | 内结汇。市场普遍认为 | 2026 | 年美元将进入相对弱势周期，形成了人民币对美元汇 | | | | 率可能持续升值的预期，这部分出口外汇收入的结汇速度有望提速。 | | | | | | | | | 2、特朗普暗示，他已经有了一位心目中的美联储下一任主席人选，但并不急于宣 | 布，可能会在 | 1 | 月宣布。可能会解雇现任美联储主席鲍威尔，正在考虑就美联储正 | | | | | | 在进行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing weakening of the US dollar, which has fallen below the critical level of 100, and its implications for global asset allocation, particularly in Asia [3]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Global Impact - The US dollar is in a weak cycle due to the Federal Reserve's policy shifts, increasing fiscal deficits, and a global trend towards de-dollarization [3]. - There have been five instances of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar this year, indicating deepening economic contradictions in the US [3]. - Asian currencies are experiencing collective appreciation, with the Japanese yen rising by 10%, the New Taiwan dollar by 9%, and other major Asian currencies increasing by 3%-7% [3]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong dollar has seen significant liquidity injections from the Monetary Authority, with interbank borrowing rates dropping from 4% to 0.6%, encouraging leveraged investments in stocks and real estate [5]. - The influx of talent is evident as local universities expand enrollment, with the University of Hong Kong's business school increasing its master's program from 300 to 5,000 students annually [5]. - The IPO market in Hong Kong is recovering, with 70 new listings in Q1 2023, and expectations for the total IPO scale to exceed HKD 400 billion for the year [7]. Group 3: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio remains high at 29, with tech giants at historical valuation premiums, suggesting a need to reduce exposure to US equities [9]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield has rebounded to 4.5%, with significant rollover pressures from maturing debt, leading to a recommendation to avoid short-term volatility risks in US Treasuries [9]. - Japanese assets are being revalued, with a 60% increase in core Tokyo property prices over three years, and a high employment rate among graduates attracting middle-class families [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - In the current transition period, the recommended asset allocation includes 15% in insurance products, 5.2% yield Asian dollar bonds, and a focus on equities with 40% in Hong Kong stocks, 25% in Japanese stocks, and 20% in high-dividend A-shares [11]. - Alternative assets should include 10% in gold and 5% in Bitcoin, with a strategy to increase holdings in the Chinese yuan and yen while reducing US dollar exposure to below 30% [11].