Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with gold rising over 2.3% to $4442.22 per ounce and silver increasing by 3.3% to $69.46 per ounce, marking the largest annual gains since 1979, with gold up 69% and silver up 137% for the year [1][16]. Group 2 - Several factors are driving the strength of precious metal prices, which have become widely accepted [3][18]. - One key factor is the strengthening of monetary policy expectations, as the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.3%, prompting a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy direction [4][19]. - The market's pricing probability for interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026 has increased from 52% to 78%, leading to lower actual interest rates, which reduces the holding cost of gold, a non-yielding asset [4][19]. - Another factor is the continuous decline of the U.S. dollar index, which lowers the purchasing cost of gold for non-U.S. currency holders, enhancing its attractiveness in the international market [5][20]. - Central banks are also increasing their gold reserves, with global gold demand reaching a historical high of 1313 tons in Q3 2025, supported by central bank purchases [6][21]. - As of the end of November, China's gold reserves increased to 7.412 million ounces, marking the 13th consecutive month of gold accumulation [6][21]. Group 3 - The narrative around gold pricing is undergoing a transformative change, moving beyond traditional frameworks of the U.S. dollar and actual interest rates [8][23]. - The correlation between gold prices and traditional indicators has been breaking down since 2023, indicating a shift in the pricing logic of gold [8][23]. - Gold is transitioning to a multi-factor framework that includes central bank purchases, de-dollarization, supply rigidity, and event premiums, rather than relying solely on actual interest rates and the dollar [10][24]. - The long-term upward trend of gold prices is expected to remain intact as long as core trends such as the weakening of U.S. dollar credit and the restructuring of the reserve system persist [10][24]. Group 4 - A new tax policy on gold introduced in November is expected to enhance the attractiveness of gold jewelry as an investment, while gold ETFs are becoming more appealing due to tax advantages [12][26]. - Investors are increasingly turning to exchange-traded products like gold ETFs, which do not require physical possession of gold, making them a balanced choice for ordinary investors [12][26]. - Gold ETFs and related investment products are designed to provide exposure to gold without the burden of physical ownership, thus appealing to a broader range of investors [12][26].

具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4445.34美元，先行走强，于10点半时段触及4497美元附近后，有所遇 阻，并陷入4480上方震荡盘整，到美盘时段，空头开始发力，连续回落走低跳水，一度转跌录得日内低 点4430.80美元，最终触底回升持续走强，微幅刷新日高点至4499.49美元，最终有所回撤收于4484.50美 元，日振幅68.69美元，收涨39.16美元，涨幅0.88%。 影响上，虽然全球最大经济体美国增长强劲，第三季度以4.3%速度扩张，创两年来最快增速，以及其 他部分数据的利空，打压金价一度回撤转跌，但受到周一突破趋势阻力后的买盘推动，再加上市场仍保 持对美联储明年将降息的押注。美元指数继续大幅下行，并且特朗普表示不同意其观点的人永远不会成 为美联储主席，这也稳定了后续美联储将会开启更加宽松的周期前景，进一步助力金价，使其再度反弹 转强收阳。 展望今日周三(12月24日)：国际黄金开盘继续反弹走强，延续本周突破阻力后的买盘跟进和进一步的看 涨意愿，另外，美元指数经过连续两日的大幅回落，早间开盘继续偏弱，也对其金价产生利好支撑。 上交易日周二(12月23日)：国际黄金继续持稳反弹收阳，虽中途一度回撤转跌，但 ...

12月24日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0471，上调52点。升值至2024年9月30日以来最高。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 人民币汇率升值势头望延续 "预计年内人民币有望偏强运行，汇率中枢或难突破7.0。"中信证券首席经济学家明明在研报中指出， 美联储12月降息预期或已充分定价，且美联储降息"靴子"落地后仍有待观察美国各项经济数据的实际表 现，美元指数的下行并非一帆风顺。考虑到年底结汇的季节性效应，不排除人民币汇率阶段性突破7.0 的概率。 明明表示，预计明年美元指数偏弱运行的趋势或延续，同时央行稳汇率政策张弛有度，增强人民币汇率 韧性。若国内政策协同发力，并带动经济内生动能逐步修复，则内外部因素有望形成较大的合力，进而 对人民币汇率中枢破7形成催化。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青称，在美联储12月降息前后，美元指数呈下行趋势，这带动了包括人民币 在内的非美货币普遍出现升值。此外，年底临近，企业结汇需求增加，也会带动人民币季节性走强。在 近期人民币持续走强的背景下，前期累积的结汇需求可能加速释放。 中金公司研报认为，由于当前人民币实际有效汇率处于低位以及中国制造业实力强大 ...

本报讯（记者 潘福达）人民币汇率市场迎来强势行情。昨天，人民币对美元中间价调升29个基点，报 7.0573，创2024年10月9日以来最高，前一交易日中间价报7.0602。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，近期人民币对美元汇率连续上行，有两个直接原因：首先是12月11 日美联储降息前后，美元指数持续下行跌破100，带动包括人民币在内的非美货币普遍升值；其次是年 底企业结汇需求增加，带动人民币季节性走强，近期人民币持续走强后，前期累积的结汇需求可能在加 速释放。 人民币汇率自11月下旬以来持续上行，接连创下年内新高。中信证券研究团队表示，2026年美元指数偏 弱运行的趋势或将延续，预计人民币汇率有望温和升值。 12月16日，更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元盘中升破7.04关口，在岸人民币对美元升破 7.05关口，双双创下2024年10月8日以来新高。12月17日，离岸人民币汇率和在岸人民币汇率维持高 位，离岸人民币盘中一度升至7.03185，创下2024年10月4日以来新高；在岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高 升至7.0411，创下2024年10月8日以来新高。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices are experiencing slight fluctuations as the market awaits the non-farm payroll data, with a high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September regardless of the data outcome [1] - As of September 5, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates is 0.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 99.4% [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in an overbought condition, with a potential for a price correction, while short-term resistance is noted at $3574 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices continue to trend downward, with a recent increase in U.S. crude oil inventories indicating a bearish outlook for prices [2] - The EIA reported an increase of 2.415 million barrels in crude oil inventories, contrary to expectations of a decrease [9] - OPEC+ is considering further production increases, which could exacerbate supply surplus risks and maintain downward pressure on oil prices [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index shows a clear downward trend, influenced by recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicating a shift towards a more dovish policy stance [3] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny due to external pressures, which may undermine market confidence in the dollar [3] - Technical indicators suggest that the dollar index is facing resistance from long-term moving averages, with a potential for continued decline [4] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a bullish trend, with a significant rebound from previous lows and a double bottom breakout indicating a trend reversal [5] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices are showing signs of weakness, with a potential for a downward correction as indicated by recent technical patterns [6] Group 6: Employment Data - The U.S. ADP employment change for August was reported at 54,000, below the expected 65,000, indicating a slowdown in job growth [7] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 were reported at 237,000, slightly above expectations [8] Group 7: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases are scheduled, including the Eurozone GDP revision and U.S. non-farm payroll figures, which are anticipated to impact market sentiment [10][11][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The improvement of the macro - situation drives up risk appetite, and the index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range. However, there are risks in different sectors, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended for each variety [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The macro situation has improved, the index has broken through the short - term shock range, and the dividend sector has rebounded. In the process of the central shift upward, be vigilant against the risk of chasing high. It is recommended to sell MO options with an exercise price of 5900 from August to September with a light position to collect option premiums. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips in the short term, take profit when approaching the previous high, and pay attention to economic data and capital trends. Also, pay attention to steepening the curve [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: At the beginning of the month, the capital market loosened, and treasury bonds rebounded as a whole, but there is currently no momentum to break through the previous high. In the short - term unilateral strategy, it is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, take profit when approaching the previous high, and pay attention to economic data and capital trends. Also, pay attention to steepening the curve [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The threat of US tariffs has increased, the US dollar index has continued to decline, and gold has continued its rebound trend. If the gold price stabilizes above the 60 - day moving average, it will fluctuate above $3300; the silver price will oscillate in the range of $35.5 - $36.5. Pay attention to the impact of US economic data on the Fed's monetary policy expectations [2]. Black - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is recommended to wait and see for now. For arbitrage, pay attention to the operation of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The Tangshan production restriction policy may suppress iron ore demand. It is recommended to short at high levels, with the fluctuation range referring to 690 - 720 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, the expectation of coal mine复产 has strengthened, the spot is running strongly, the transaction has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. It is recommended to wait and see, and then go long on dips or go long on coking coal and short on coke after stabilization [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, the coking profit has declined, and the price is approaching the phased bottom. It is recommended to wait and see, and then go long on dips or go long on coking coal and short on coke after stabilization [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices are suppressing downstream procurement. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The oversupply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels in the medium term. The main contract reference range is 2750 - 3100 [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market follows the high - level oscillation of aluminum prices, and the fundamentals in the off - season remain weak. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [2]. - **Zinc**: The demand expectation is still weak, and the downstream willingness to take delivery is low. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 22500 [2]. - **Lead**: The market maintains an oscillation, the sentiment is temporarily stable, but the industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 116000 - 124000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is weakly oscillating, the sentiment is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. The main contract reference range is 12300 - 13000 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The demand - side expectation has improved, driving the market to stabilize. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The support for WTI is in the range of [63, 64], the upper - end pressure for Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level for SC is in the range of [480, 490] [2]. - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level while the demand release is insufficient, and the short - term market is likely to continue to bottom out. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term, and exit if the actual quota fails to meet the expectation. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand is tight, but the oil price support is limited. PX will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. PX09 will oscillate in the range of 6600 - 6900 in the short term. Be cautious and bearish near the upper edge of the range; pay attention to the opportunity to widen the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weakening, and the oil price support is limited. PTA will follow the raw materials to oscillate in the short term. TA will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900 in the short term. Allocate bearishly at the upper edge of the range; temporarily exit the TA9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing fee is gradually being repaired. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA; mainly widen the processing fee at the low level of the PF market [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: It is the demand peak season, the production cuts of bottle - chips are gradually being implemented, the processing fee is bottoming out, and PR follows the cost to fluctuate. The unilateral strategy for PR is the same as that for PTA; conduct positive arbitrage on PR8 - 9 on dips; the processing fee of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to widen at the lower edge of the range [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply - demand is gradually becoming loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will be weakly sorted. Hold the seller of the short - term call option EG2509 - C - 4450; conduct reverse arbitrage on EG9 - 1 at high levels [2]. - **Styrene**: Styrene may continue to weaken. Pay attention to the continuation of the decline in oil prices. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities for styrene with raw - material resonance [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene is weakening, and there is pressure above BR. Short at high levels for BR2508 in the short term [2]. - **LLDPE**: The spot price is falling, and the trading is weak. It will oscillate in the short term [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the cost - side support is weakening. Treat it with caution and bearishly, and enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [2]. - **Methanol**: The basis is strong. Pay attention to the later shipments from Iran. Wait and see [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are oscillating at the bottom, and the lower - end support is strengthening. Conduct short - term operations [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot sentiment is strong, but the market is suppressed by profit - taking. Treat it with caution and bearishly [2]. - **Corn**: The import auction has a premium, and the market is slightly increasing steadily. Pay attention to the support at 2360 - 2370 [2]. - **Oils**: The decline in production supports the strong oscillation of palm oil. The reference range for P2509 is 8200 - 8500 [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade bearishly on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. The market rushes up and then falls back. Hold short positions in the short term [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot market remains weak. Go long on short - term rebounds, but still be bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The trading is generally stable, and the transaction is priced according to quality. The main contract runs around 7700 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The market price is rising. The main contract runs around 9600 [2]. - **Peanuts**: The market price is oscillating steadily. The main contract runs around 8200 [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply logic is re - dominating the market, and the market is weakening again. Hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The spot sales are deteriorating, and the market is weakening. Adopt a short - term bearish thinking [2]. - **Rubber**: There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Continue to hold short positions above 14000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The resumption of production by southwestern enterprises has increased, and the industrial silicon price has declined. Wait and see [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is fluctuating widely, the news disturbance is increasing, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 58,000 - 64,000 [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC market is rising. Wait and see cautiously. It is expected that the 08 contract will hover between 1800 - 2000. For unilateral operations, wait and see for now [2].

Market Overview - On June 16, despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, the Hong Kong stock market showed resilience, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.7% to close at 24,060 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.2%, closing at 5,299 points, with a trading volume of HKD 229.2 billion, indicating relative market activity[1] - Net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 5.7 billion, reflecting continued interest in the market[1] Sector Performance - Technology stocks generally performed well, with Xiaomi (1810 HK) up 4.2% and Kuaishou (1024 HK) rising over 3%[1] - Real estate and Chinese brokerage stocks remained strong, with major banks like China Construction Bank (939 HK) and Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK) reaching historical highs[1] - Defensive sectors saw a decline, particularly gold stocks, with Lingbao Gold (3330 HK) dropping 12%[1] Economic Insights - In May, China's economy showed signs of moderate recovery, with retail sales improving month-on-month but continuing to exhibit internal structural disparities[2] - The International Institute of Finance (IIF) reported a USD 5.2 billion inflow into the Chinese market from the beginning of the year until May, although foreign investment in Chinese stocks remains significantly underweight[2] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation is at the 60th percentile of the past seven years, with the AH premium near a three-year low, suggesting limited short-term catalysts for the market[2] Real Estate Trends - New home sales in 30 major cities reached 1.74 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 3.0%, but an improvement from the previous week's 18.1% drop[3] - The decline in new construction and completion areas was less severe than in April, with decreases of 18.7% and 19.1%, respectively[3] Automotive Sector Developments - Xiaomi announced the upcoming launch of its new car model YU7, alongside several other significant product releases, boosting its stock price by 4.2%[4] Pharmaceutical Sector Updates - CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) is set to receive USD 1.1 billion in upfront payments from AstraZeneca for multiple drug candidates, with potential milestone payments reaching USD 16.2 billion[5] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on high-dividend defensive sectors like energy and telecommunications, while also considering undervalued tech stocks with growth potential as market conditions stabilize[2][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.79%, ranking it lower among all primary industries. The sub-sectors saw significant gains, with new materials up 8.62%, precious metals up 6.13%, industrial metals up 3.34%, energy metals up 2.29%, and minor metals up 2.17% [1][13] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are impacting market sentiment, particularly affecting industrial metals, while precious metals like gold are benefiting from a declining US dollar index and increased safe-haven demand due to these tensions [1][4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.79%, outperforming the index by 4.04 percentage points [13] - The non-ferrous metals sub-sectors all saw increases, with the new materials sector leading [13] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have declined due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, with LME copper at $9,648/ton, down 0.24% week-on-week, and SHFE copper at ¥78,010/ton, down 1.17% [2][31] - Aluminum prices increased, with LME aluminum at $2,503/ton, up 2.10%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,440/ton, up 1.84%. Low inventory levels and rising overseas oil prices are supporting aluminum prices [3][35] - Zinc prices fell, with LME zinc at $2,627/ton, down 1.35%, and SHFE zinc at ¥21,815/ton, down 2.55% [38] - Tin prices rose, with LME tin at $32,780/ton, up 1.63%, and SHFE tin at ¥263,690/ton, up 0.03% [41] Precious Metals - Gold prices surged, with COMEX gold at $3,452.60/oz, up 3.65%, and SHFE gold at ¥794.36/g, up 1.42%. The decline in the US dollar index and geopolitical tensions are driving this increase [4][44]