2025 年 11 月 21 日 星期五 ➢ 每日大市点评 11 月 20 日，港股缺乏向上推动力。除美国 12 月减息的不确定性外，中日关系紧张亦增加市场风险情绪，加上近期迎来 多达 28 只股份将陆续解禁，为港股带来调整压力。周四恒生指数最终收报 25,835 点，微涨 4 点（0.02%）；恒生科技指 数下跌 32 点（0.6%），收报 5,574 点；全天大市成交额稍稍扩大至 2,451 亿元。港股通净流入增长至接近 160 亿元，是 近一个月以来单日净流入金额最高。盘面上，市场传闻政府将推出新一轮房地产刺激措施，消息导致内房股周四造好， 碧桂园（2007 HK）涨 3.1%；万科（2202 HK）涨 3.7%；中海外（688 HK）涨 2.5%。11 月 19 日宁德时代（3750 HK）有 7,000 多万股 H 股解禁，周四股价下挫 5.7%。除了宁德时代，年底前还有曹操出行（2643 HK）、英诺赛科（2577 HK） 和药捷安康（2617 HK）等较大规模股份解禁。投资者警惕基金在假期前减持股份。 美股方面，英伟达季度业绩强劲，令市场对人工智能前景重启乐观情绪；加上延迟发布的美国 9 月非农 ...

Market Overview - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed at 26,283, down 0.24% for the day but up 31.02% year-to-date[3] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,822, down 0.99% for the day and up 15.99% year-to-date[3] - The Nasdaq index closed at 23,581, down 1.57% for the day and up 22.11% year-to-date[3] Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks faced significant declines, with ZTE Corporation dropping over 11% and other major players like SMIC falling over 1%[9] - The coal sector continued its upward trend, with Yancoal Australia and Jinma Energy both rising over 5%[9] - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong performance, with Ganfeng Lithium surging nearly 15% and China Aluminum rising over 10%[9] Company Highlights - Apple reported Q3 revenue of $102.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, with iPhone sales up 6.1%[12] - Meta Platforms saw a significant drop of 11.33% following its quarterly earnings report, raising concerns over increased capital expenditures in AI[9] - Amazon's Q3 revenue grew 13% to $180.2 billion, exceeding market expectations[14] Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell to approximately 218,000, indicating a tightening labor market[12] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at around 0.5%, with no preset timetable for future rate hikes[12] - Fitch Ratings noted that the Chinese real estate market has not yet bottomed out, with ongoing pressure on prices and transaction volumes[9]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.61% and the Tech Index increasing by 3.36%, marking a four-year high for both indices [1][3] - The overall market sentiment indicates a strong upward trend rather than speculative trading, as evidenced by the broad-based rally across sectors [1][3] Technology Sector - Tech stocks have shown robust performance, with Kuaishou leading the charge with an over 8% increase, followed by Baidu at 4%, and other major players like JD, Xiaomi, and Alibaba also rising by around 3% [3] - Semiconductor stocks, particularly SMIC, surged over 12%, driven by increasing demand for storage semiconductors due to the AI boom, indicating a potential "super cycle" in the industry [3] Gold Sector - Gold stocks have performed exceptionally well, with China Silver Group rising over 30% and Zijin Mining up more than 14%, attributed to international gold prices nearing $3,900 and a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut [3] - The combination of safe-haven demand and favorable policy conditions positions gold as a reliable investment for medium to long-term investors [3] Lithium Battery Sector - CATL's stock rose over 5%, reaching a new high, supported by increasing demand for lithium carbonate and a gradual decline in inventory levels, indicating a positive shift in the fundamentals [4] - The lithium battery sector is expected to benefit from seasonal demand in energy storage, reinforcing the notion of a stable investment environment [4] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - WuXi AppTec's stock increased by over 7%, with upcoming industry conferences and favorable policy changes providing optimism for growth in the innovative drug sector [4] - The sector is characterized by a gradual investment approach, aligning with the long-term strategy of monitoring key developments [4] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has faced challenges, with companies like China Overseas Land seeing a decline of over 4%, as reported profits for the first half of the year dropped by 27% [4] - The declining profit margins and adverse market conditions suggest that this sector may not be suitable for medium to long-term investment at this time [4] Investment Strategy - The current market dynamics reflect a logical rise and fall in stock prices, emphasizing the importance of understanding underlying industry fundamentals rather than short-term fluctuations [5] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a patient approach, focusing on long-term trends and opportunities within the market [5]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline in the afternoon, with major indices dropping over 2% after reaching recent highs earlier in the day. The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.35%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.46% and 0.99%, respectively [1][2]. Sector Performance - The technology sector, which had previously driven market gains, saw a broad pullback, with major financial stocks (banks, insurance, and brokerage firms) collectively dragging the market down. Real estate stocks faced substantial declines, reflecting ongoing market adjustments, with coal, home appliance, education, catering, gaming, and gold stocks also experiencing losses [2][3]. - Semiconductor stocks maintained strong performance amid news of anti-dumping investigations and rumors of a ban on Nvidia, with Huahong Semiconductor rising by 8.6% and leading firm SMIC reaching a historical high [2][10]. Notable Stock Movements - Major technology stocks such as Xpeng Motors, Haier Smart Home, and Bilibili saw declines exceeding 3%, while Tencent, Alibaba Health, and Midea Group also fell [4][5]. - Real estate stocks collectively dropped, with Country Garden falling over 10% and other firms like Jin Hui Holdings and Oceanwide Holdings declining by more than 7% [6]. - Chinese brokerage stocks also fell, with Hongye Futures down over 5% and other firms like Zhongzhou Securities and CITIC Securities following suit [7][8]. - Education stocks faced significant declines, with China Education Industry dropping over 9% and other firms like Zhongjiao Holdings and Huazhong Education also experiencing losses [9]. - The semiconductor and chip sectors saw gains, with ASMPT and Huahong Semiconductor both rising over 8% [10]. - The innovative drug sector performed well, with companies like Crystal Technology and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical seeing increases of over 5% [11]. Capital Flows - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 6.288 billion, with net purchases of HKD 1.907 billion through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and HKD 4.382 billion through the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect [13]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict a "super long bull market" for Hong Kong stocks, with expectations that the Hang Seng Index could reach around 28,000 points by November, and the Hang Seng Tech Index may target a range of 6,000 to 6,200 points [15].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed a low-open and high-rise trend in the morning session, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading the gains, closing up 1.11% at a new high for the period [1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.29%, while the National Enterprises Index increased by 0.34%, indicating continued active buying sentiment in the market [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks acted as market indicators, with Alibaba rising approximately 3%, and NetEase and Xiaomi both gaining over 1%. Other companies like Kuaishou, JD.com, Meituan, and Tencent also saw increases, while Baidu fell nearly 2% [1] - Lithium battery stocks experienced significant gains, driven by multiple positive factors, with CATL's stock soaring about 7% to reach a new high since its listing. Other companies like Ganfeng Lithium, AVIC Innovation, and BYD also followed suit [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a work plan to stabilize growth in the automotive industry, leading to a collective rise in automotive stocks, with NIO and Li Auto both increasing over 5% [1] - Biopharmaceutical stocks, coal stocks, brain-computer interface concept stocks, and semiconductor stocks mostly performed actively [1] Weakness in Certain Sectors - In contrast, real estate development investment in the first eight months fell by 12.9% year-on-year, and personal mortgage loans decreased by 10.5%, resulting in a collective decline in domestic property stocks [1] - Other sectors such as film and television, heavy machinery, catering, Chinese brokerage firms, and gaming stocks mostly showed weak performance [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose, with technology stocks showing mixed performance while property stocks surged and the solar energy sector advanced [1] - The earnings season for Hong Kong stocks has recently concluded, with a stable performance reported, particularly in the technology sector, which continues to exhibit high growth [1] - The forecast for Hong Kong's non-financial earnings growth in H1 2025 shows a slight improvement compared to H2 2024, with the Hang Seng Technology Index maintaining high growth [1] Group 2 - The improvement in profitability is supporting the rise of Hong Kong stocks, with recommendations to focus on sectors with high earnings growth but low to medium valuations, such as consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and utilities [1] - The upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to enhance global liquidity, which may benefit the high-growth and high-volatility technology sector in Hong Kong [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently in a historically undervalued range and is highly sensitive to changes in the US-China interest rate differential, making it likely to benefit from a more accommodative overseas liquidity environment [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.37%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.06%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.65% after reaching a peak increase of 2.3% during the day [1] Technology Sector - Major technology stocks saw a narrowing of gains in the afternoon, with JD.com rising by 2.65%, Alibaba, Baidu, and Xiaomi each increasing by less than 1%, while Kuaishou fell by 1.47%. Tencent and Meituan also showed negative performance [1] Entertainment Industry - The summer box office continued to perform strongly, driven by positive reviews of major films, which boosted overall viewing demand. Film-related stocks were robust, with Lingmeng Film rising over 21%, Daocaoxiong Entertainment up nearly 15%, and Maoyan Entertainment increasing by nearly 6% [1] Healthcare Sector - Internet healthcare stocks collectively rose, with Ping An Good Doctor and JD Health both increasing by over 8% [1] Other Active Sectors - Rare earth concept stocks, military industry stocks, brain-computer interface concept stocks, automotive stocks, and Apple-related stocks showed active performance [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector continued to weaken in July, with domestic property stocks generally declining [1] Commodities and Other Industries - The U.S. announced an expansion of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by 50%, leading to declines in steel and copper stocks. Coal, oil, semiconductor, domestic banking, and shipping stocks mostly performed poorly [1]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,524 points, down 38 points or 0.2%, after a 1.2% intraday decline, indicating resilience despite early pressure[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.4%, closing at 5,644 points, reflecting a similar trend[1] - Total market turnover reached HKD 267 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 12.72 billion through the Stock Connect, showing strong support[1] Market Trends - Since mid-July, cumulative net inflow through Stock Connect has reached HKD 116 billion over the past 20 trading days, indicating increased investor interest[1] - The market is experiencing a high risk appetite, particularly in the biotech and brokerage sectors, with several biotech stocks hitting new highs[1] Short-term Risks - The Hang Seng Index faces short-term adjustment risks due to three factors: 1. Technical indicators are overbought, with the 50-day and 250-day moving averages at extreme levels of 93%[2] 2. August has historically been a weak month for the index, with an average decline of 2.1% over the past 15 years and a rise rate of only 26.7%[2] 3. The US dollar may rebound, as it has historically increased by an average of 0.1% in August, potentially pressuring emerging markets like Hong Kong[2] Policy Impact - Government policies, such as the implementation of a nationwide childcare subsidy starting January 1, 2025, are expected to boost market sentiment[3] - The healthcare sector saw a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index up 3.8%, driven by strong performances in innovative drugs and medical devices[4] Real Estate Insights - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 16.8% year-on-year, with a total volume of 1.4 million square meters sold, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market[5] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities rose to 129.8, up from 101.3 a year ago, suggesting increasing supply pressure[7] - Land transaction volumes also dropped significantly, down 48.6% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in real estate development activity[8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,524.45, down by 0.15%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.34% to 9,145.92. The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.35% to 5,644.38, with intraday declines reaching 1.2% for the first two indices and a significant drop of 2% for the tech index [1] - Despite the index adjustments, southbound capital saw a substantial net purchase of Hong Kong stocks exceeding 10 billion HKD [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the biopharmaceutical sector included WuXi AppTec (up 11.25%), with other companies like CSPC Pharmaceutical and Green Leaf Pharmaceutical also showing strong performance, rising over 8% [3] - The top-performing stocks included WuXi Biologics-B (up 33.33%), Chuangsheng Group-B (up 17.06%), and Dongyao Pharmaceutical-B (up 15.06%) [2] Sector Trends - Large tech stocks showed a narrowing of losses in the afternoon, with Alibaba slightly turning positive, while Tencent, JD.com, Meituan, and Kuaishou experienced declines within 1%. Xiaomi fell by 2.6%, and Baidu dropped nearly 2% [3] - The "anti-involution" sectors, including steel and photovoltaic stocks, saw a rebound, while sectors like banking, catering, and robotics generally declined [3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 260 points or 1.1%, closing at 24,148 points, driven by a rebound in technology stocks[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.8%, closing at 5,325 points, with a total market turnover exceeding HKD 213.3 billion[1] - Net inflow into Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 386 million, indicating positive sentiment in the market[1] Sector Performance - Cathay Financial International (1788 HK) surged by 28.5%, becoming the most actively traded stock with a turnover of HKD 12.8 billion[1] - Other notable performers included Kuaishou (1024 HK), which rose by 5.2%, reaching a three-month high[1] - The gaming, cultural tourism, brokerage, and consumer electronics sectors showed strong performance, with major tech stocks like Alibaba (9988 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK) rising by 1.5% and 3.6% respectively[1] Economic Indicators - The new housing transaction volume in 30 major cities reached 1.89 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, showing improvement compared to the previous week's 23.1% drop[5] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities was 63.1, higher than last year's 59.7 but lower than the previous week's 68.2[7] - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities increased by 15.3% year-on-year, totaling 2.063 million square meters[8] Policy and Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain high-level fluctuations, with a focus on technology stocks for further upward movement[2] - Long-term capital is improving, suggesting no need for significant reduction in positions[2] - The government is expected to implement supportive policies to stabilize the real estate market, which may benefit both state-owned and local enterprises[11]