1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and weak operation [1][3] - The aluminum ingot prices are expected to have short - term weak fluctuations and be adjusted in the range recently, with the subsequent focus on the inventory - consumption trend [3][4] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs For Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival are expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with individual ones after January 20, affecting about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] For Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, traders are waiting for the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for US interest rate policy clues. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a photovoltaic industry symposium to strengthen investment management [2] - In terms of supply, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. In terms of demand, although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, the consumption from terminals to processed materials is hard to exceed expectations due to the off - season. The growth of some industries has slowed down, and some export orders have declined. The construction industry is still in a super - seasonal decline [3] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. In some sub - fields, the operating rate increased, while the recycled aluminum operating rate decreased slightly. It is expected that some fields will continue to recover in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost demand [3] - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 20,000 tons from last Monday [3] - Macro - level interest rate cut expectations support prices. It is expected to be mainly adjusted in the range recently, and the subsequent focus is on the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and actual impacts are expected to put pressure on the upside [4]

智通财经APP获悉，在最新报告中，美银全球研究的两位经济学家Aditya Bhave和Shruti Mishra指出，如 果就业市场保持韧性，那么特朗普关税带来的通胀压力或将使美联储在2025年全年无法降息。这也是他 们目前的"基准情境"预测。 但他们同时也警告称，若经济出现"断裂"，很可能会在今夏结束前发生，届时美联储可能会采取大幅度 宽松措施，应对潜在的经济衰退风险。 "我们认为前景呈现双峰分布。"两位经济学家在周二发给MarketWatch的报告中写道："如果就业市场像 我们预期的那样保持坚挺，那么关税推动的通胀就可能足以阻止美联储降息；但如果经济出现问题，我 们认为会发生在夏季，而非更晚。" 如果后一种情境成真，他们预计美联储最快将在9月大幅降息75个基点。 美银的预测与美联储内部的利率前景展望出现明显分歧。上周美联储公布的最新"点阵图"显示，联邦公 开市场委员会(FOMC)内部已经明显分化：约一半成员预计2025年前将维持利率不变；另一半则预计至 少两次降息，第一次最早可能出现在9月。 美联储理事沃勒上周末表示，美联储最快7月就可能降息，而另一位理事鲍曼本周一也表示，她愿意支 持下月的降息。 不过， ...

Group 1: Commercial Real Estate Investment Trends - The Asia-Pacific commercial real estate investment in Q1 increased by 20% year-on-year to $36.3 billion, marking the highest first-quarter investment since the start of the 2022 interest rate hike cycle [1] - All real estate sectors, except for industrial and logistics properties, saw increased investment, indicating that investors are making rational decisions based on objective fundamentals [1] - In Hong Kong, commercial property transactions over HKD 50 million totaled $850 million, a decrease of 17.8% year-on-year, with the investment market remaining subdued due to high interest rates [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Investment and Market Outlook - The Asia-Pacific region recorded $8.6 billion in overseas capital inflow in Q1, a significant increase of 152% year-on-year, the highest for the same period since 2019 [2] - Japan remains a favored market for foreign investment, attracting $13.7 billion in foreign capital in Q1 2025, a 20% increase year-on-year, despite rising interest rates [2] - The investment sentiment is expected to remain subdued in the short term due to high borrowing costs exceeding investment returns, although potential U.S. interest rate cuts and economic stimulus measures in China could improve investor confidence [2] Group 3: Economic Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - U.S. tariff policies are anticipated to impact the economies of several countries, particularly those heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and South Korea [3] - The weakening economic growth outlook in the U.S. may lead to reduced leasing and investment activities in commercial real estate, affecting demand for office spaces and retail performance [3] - Despite challenges, structural trends such as rising e-commerce penetration and an expanding middle class are expected to support internal trade in the Asia-Pacific region [3]