东方IC 对此，NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun表示："过去几年住房销售一直低迷，原因是抵押贷款利率居高不下而房源 有限；不过，抵押贷款利率正在下降、市场上房源增加，这将提振未来几个月的销量。" 来源：环球Tech 【环球网财经综合报道】日前，美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）数据显示，经季节调整后，美国8月二手房 屋销售年化速率较7月小幅下降0.2%，至400万套。房价中位数同比上涨2%至42.26万美元，连续第26个月实现同 比上涨。 中金公司此前发布研报指出，如果说过去两年多以来围绕美国经济、财政、利率政策的预期出现过诸多反复，目 前待考察的主要变量则基本收敛至利率。如若后续得以顺利实施降息，则对于居民和企业部门的预期将可能起到 更为正面和清晰的引导作用，理论上利率的逐步降低有助于改善美国购房人面对的可负担性压力，推动住房成交 逐步修复。 中金公司还提到，美国房价在2021年达到历史新高，2022年以后尽管基本维持高位，但实际增速已经转负。如果 说过去40年美国房价几乎单边持续积累实际收益（持续跑赢通胀），但疫情可能标志着通胀和利率运行方向的拐 点，那么未来房价要进一步积累实际收益的空间或不大 ...

另据房利美数据，美国30年期固定利率房贷的平均利率近期降至去年秋季以来最低的6.58%，但仍显著 高于疫情后复苏初期的水平。 东方IC 对此，NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun表示："过去几年住房销售一直低迷，原因是抵押贷款利率居高 不下而房源有限；不过，抵押贷款利率正在下降、市场上房源增加，这将提振未来几个月的销量。" 中金公司此前发布研报指出，如果说过去两年多以来围绕美国经济、财政、利率政策的预期出现过诸多 反复，目前待考察的主要变量则基本收敛至利率。如若后续得以顺利实施降息，则对于居民和企业部门 的预期将可能起到更为正面和清晰的引导作用，理论上利率的逐步降低有助于改善美国购房人面对的可 负担性压力，推动住房成交逐步修复。 中金公司还提到，美国房价在2021年达到历史新高，2022年以后尽管基本维持高位，但实际增速已经转 负。如果说过去40年美国房价几乎单边持续积累实际收益（持续跑赢通胀），但疫情可能标志着通胀和 利率运行方向的拐点，那么未来房价要进一步积累实际收益的空间或不大。 来源：环球网 【环球网财经综合报道】日前，美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）数据显示，经季节调整后，美国8 月二手房屋 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and weak operation [1][3] - The aluminum ingot prices are expected to have short - term weak fluctuations and be adjusted in the range recently, with the subsequent focus on the inventory - consumption trend [3][4] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs For Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival are expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with individual ones after January 20, affecting about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] For Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, traders are waiting for the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for US interest rate policy clues. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a photovoltaic industry symposium to strengthen investment management [2] - In terms of supply, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. In terms of demand, although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, the consumption from terminals to processed materials is hard to exceed expectations due to the off - season. The growth of some industries has slowed down, and some export orders have declined. The construction industry is still in a super - seasonal decline [3] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. In some sub - fields, the operating rate increased, while the recycled aluminum operating rate decreased slightly. It is expected that some fields will continue to recover in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost demand [3] - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 20,000 tons from last Monday [3] - Macro - level interest rate cut expectations support prices. It is expected to be mainly adjusted in the range recently, and the subsequent focus is on the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and actual impacts are expected to put pressure on the upside [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. monetary policy may face two distinct paths in 2025, heavily influenced by the tariffs reimposed by the Trump administration, which could affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][2] - Bank of America economists predict that if the job market remains resilient, inflationary pressures from tariffs may prevent the Fed from lowering rates throughout 2025, which is their baseline scenario [1] - Conversely, if the economy experiences a "breakdown," significant easing measures may be implemented by the Fed as early as September, with a potential rate cut of 75 basis points [1] Group 2 - There is a notable divergence between Bank of America's predictions and the Federal Reserve's internal outlook, with about half of the FOMC members expecting to maintain rates until 2025, while the other half anticipates at least two rate cuts [2] - The "dot plot" from the Fed indicates a split in expectations, with some members suggesting a rate cut as early as July, while Bank of America economists argue that the median forecast is unrealistic due to its reliance on an ideal economic environment [2] - Historical accuracy of the Fed's dot plot predictions has been poor, particularly during periods of high economic uncertainty, making future forecasts challenging [2] Group 3 - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious approach in light of the unclear impact of Trump tariffs on inflation, suggesting the Fed will remain observant [5] - Concerns have been raised by economists regarding the potential negative impact on the overall economy if the Fed delays rate cuts, with some arguing that the labor market risks should be prioritized over inflation concerns [5] - Despite signs of a softening labor market, U.S. stock markets, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones, have shown resilience, with significant gains reported [5]

Group 1: Commercial Real Estate Investment Trends - The Asia-Pacific commercial real estate investment in Q1 increased by 20% year-on-year to $36.3 billion, marking the highest first-quarter investment since the start of the 2022 interest rate hike cycle [1] - All real estate sectors, except for industrial and logistics properties, saw increased investment, indicating that investors are making rational decisions based on objective fundamentals [1] - In Hong Kong, commercial property transactions over HKD 50 million totaled $850 million, a decrease of 17.8% year-on-year, with the investment market remaining subdued due to high interest rates [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Investment and Market Outlook - The Asia-Pacific region recorded $8.6 billion in overseas capital inflow in Q1, a significant increase of 152% year-on-year, the highest for the same period since 2019 [2] - Japan remains a favored market for foreign investment, attracting $13.7 billion in foreign capital in Q1 2025, a 20% increase year-on-year, despite rising interest rates [2] - The investment sentiment is expected to remain subdued in the short term due to high borrowing costs exceeding investment returns, although potential U.S. interest rate cuts and economic stimulus measures in China could improve investor confidence [2] Group 3: Economic Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - U.S. tariff policies are anticipated to impact the economies of several countries, particularly those heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and South Korea [3] - The weakening economic growth outlook in the U.S. may lead to reduced leasing and investment activities in commercial real estate, affecting demand for office spaces and retail performance [3] - Despite challenges, structural trends such as rising e-commerce penetration and an expanding middle class are expected to support internal trade in the Asia-Pacific region [3]