美国2025年12月零售销售环比意外零增长，显著弱于预期值0.4%的增幅，前值为增长0.6%。核心零售 销售环比下降0.1%，预期为增长0.3%。主要依赖工资增长的低收入群体消费表现依然疲弱。 其他信息：美联储洛根表示，美联储的政策立场恰到好处；美联储的政策立场可能接近中性水平，既不 刺激也不抑制经济活动。未来几个月如果通胀回落、劳动力市场保持稳定，就不需要进一步降息。美联 储哈马克表示，当前美联储目标利率"接近"中性水平；美联储的利率政策可能会"在相当长一段时间 内"保持不变。 【机构观点】 【白银期货最新行情】 | 2月11日 | 收盘价（元/千克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 20944 | 1.88% | 504079 | 211818 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 数据显示，2月11日上海白银现货价格报价22146元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（20944元/千克）升水 1202元/千克。 美国2025年12月零售销售环比意外零增长，显著弱于预期值0.4%的增幅，前值为增长0.6%。核 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The US economy still faces downward pressure, which is bearish for silver, and silver may fluctuate passively following gold, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation. - The domestic methanol market has high开工 rates, declining downstream demand, and increasing port inventories, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to remain healthy, but the price may fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment. - The manganese - silicon market remains in a state of loose supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate around the cost. - The domestic steel market is in the holiday mode, with stagnant downstream demand. The steel price is expected to be stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday. - Fed officials have dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, but geopolitical and US political uncertainties still support gold in the long - term, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation. - The fourth - quarter monetary policy report is positive for long - term bonds, and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but with strong short - term volatility. - The national pig price is still falling, but the downward space is limited, and the far - month contracts are expected to bottom out and wait for a cycle reversal. - The January palm oil report is slightly bullish, but the price increase is limited. The domestic palm oil price is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with a rising price center. - The domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level and demand is weak, but the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term. - Copper production in January exceeded expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate, waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand. - Aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to weak demand. - PX supply and demand will weaken during the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Crude oil is in a strong and chaotic accumulation phase, mainly supported by geopolitics, and short - term trading is recommended. - The supply of natural rubber is tightening, but demand is weak during the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - PVC production is stable, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: US retail sales data shows economic downward pressure, which is bearish for silver. It may follow gold and fluctuate, with a mid - term high - level consolidation outlook [1]. - **Gold**: Fed officials' remarks dampen interest - rate cut expectations, but geopolitical and political uncertainties support gold in the long - term, with a mid - term high - level consolidation outlook [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: US commercial crude inventory increased, and the market is waiting for the second - round negotiation between the US and Iran. Crude oil is in a strong and chaotic accumulation phase, with supply pressure still existing [10]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the content. Chemicals - **Methanol**: High domestic methanol开工 rates, declining downstream demand, and increasing port inventories. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **PX**: PX load is expected to run at a high level in February, but supply - demand will weaken during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: PVC production is stable during the holiday, inventory is increasing rapidly, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand, expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal production will decline during the holiday, and imports are also expected to fall. The demand side has support, and the price may fluctuate widely [3]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The manganese - silicon market has loose supply and demand, with high upstream inventory pressure. The futures price is expected to fluctuate around the cost [3]. - **Steel**: The domestic steel market is in the holiday mode, with stagnant downstream demand. The price is expected to be stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday [4]. - **Copper**: January copper production exceeded expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate, waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand [7]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to weak demand [7]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The January palm oil report is slightly bullish, but the price increase is limited. The domestic price is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with a rising price center [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level and demand is weak, but the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [6]. - **Pig**: The national pig price is still falling, but the downward space is limited, and the far - month contracts are expected to bottom out and wait for a cycle reversal [5]. - **Natural Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is tightening, but demand is weak during the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [11]. Others - **Treasury Bonds**: The fourth - quarter monetary policy report is positive for long - term bonds, and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but with strong short - term volatility [5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have recently surged, reaching new highs, driven by various factors including market sentiment and geopolitical tensions [1][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of January 26, spot gold reached $5,091.60 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.07% and a year-to-date rise of 17.91% [1]. - COMEX gold futures were reported at $5,074.00 per ounce, up 1.89% for the day and also showing a year-to-date increase exceeding 17% [1]. - In the A-share market, several gold and jewelry stocks, including Zhaojin Mining and Hunan Gold, hit the daily limit, with Zijin Mining rising by 5.17% [3]. Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices have also seen significant increases, with London silver at $107.884 per ounce, up 4.40% for the day and a year-to-date rise of 50.72% [5]. - COMEX silver was reported at $107.310 per ounce, with a daily increase of 5.90% and a year-to-date increase of 51.18% [5]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent bull market in precious metals is attributed to expectations of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, alongside pressures from the U.S. economy and geopolitical uncertainties [5][6]. - Market sentiment has been heightened by U.S. President Trump's threats regarding tariffs and military movements in the Middle East, which have increased demand for gold as a safe haven [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may fluctuate between $4,800 and $5,200 per ounce leading up to the Chinese New Year, influenced by upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and ongoing geopolitical risks [6]. - Long-term expectations suggest that pressures on the U.S. economy and persistent inflation may continue to support rising precious metal prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market in precious metals is driven primarily by investor expectations of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, alongside factors such as economic downturn pressures in the U.S., persistent inflation, rising risks of de-globalization, and global geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - International gold prices have surpassed $5,000 per ounce, largely due to a resurgence in market risk aversion, which has increased demand for gold [1] - Recent threats from U.S. President Trump regarding tariffs on Canadian exports if Canada reaches a trade agreement with China have heightened market tensions [1] - The arrival of the U.S. Navy's Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the Middle East has further escalated geopolitical concerns, contributing to the surge in gold prices [1] Group 2: Price Forecast - The international gold price is expected to fluctuate between $4,800 and $5,200 per ounce before the Chinese New Year, influenced by the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in January [1] - If the pace of interest rate cuts does not meet market expectations, it may lead to a correction in gold prices [1] - Ongoing trade policies and geopolitical risks are likely to remain volatile, providing some support for gold prices due to persistent risk aversion [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting where rates remain unchanged [1] - The Fed's statement indicates that while the U.S. economy remains strong, uncertainties regarding economic outlook have increased, with rising risks of unemployment and inflation [1][2] - Current policy rates are considered restrictive, and the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of tariffs on its dual mandate of achieving full employment and price stability [2] Group 2 - Experts suggest that if tariffs lead to a one-time price shock resulting in economic slowdown and rising unemployment, the Fed may consider significant rate cuts [2] - The Fed is expected to maintain its policy independence and focus on inflation until there is clear evidence of economic weakness, with a low probability of rate cuts in June [2][3] - Recent economic data, including a preliminary report showing a -0.3% annualized GDP growth rate for Q1 2025, reflects increasing downward pressure on the U.S. economy [2]