Group 1 - The core point of the article is the nomination of E.J. Antony by President Trump to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) following the dismissal of the previous director due to dissatisfaction with employment data [1][4]. - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with July's non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [2][4]. - Antony, who has been critical of the previous employment data, is expected to ensure the accuracy of the data published by the BLS, which has faced scrutiny regarding its reliability [1][5]. Group 2 - The nomination comes just before the scheduled release of July inflation data, with expectations that consumer prices will rise for the third consecutive month due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies [4]. - Concerns have been raised about the reliability of U.S. economic data, with a significant number of economists expressing worries about the declining quality of data collection and reporting by the BLS [5]. - The BLS has faced challenges such as reduced staffing and budget cuts, leading to a decrease in the sample size for the Consumer Price Index and the cessation of certain data releases, which may further compromise data integrity [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased significantly, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy as employment data shows weakness and inflation trends downward [2][7][8]. Group 1: Balance Sheet Overview - The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is $6.6408 trillion, down $17.35 billion from the previous week [2]. - The asset side includes $4.2045 trillion in Treasury securities and $2.1207 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [2]. - The reserve balance reached $3.3304 trillion, showing an increase from the previous week [6]. Group 2: Liquidity Release - A total liquidity release of approximately $332.02 billion occurred this week, driven by a decrease in reverse repos and an increase in fiscal deposits [4][5]. Group 3: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [7]. - Job data for the previous two months was revised downwards, indicating a weakening hiring momentum [7]. - Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, suggested that the Fed may need to consider rate cuts in the coming months due to the cooling job market [7][8]. Group 4: Inflation Trends - Excluding tariff impacts, inflation in the U.S. is showing a gradual decline, supported by economic slowdown and tightening monetary policy [8]. - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in September is low at 6.4%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is high at 93.6% [8].

智通财经APP获悉，美国7月就业报告意外疲软，引发联储官员对经济前景的进一步担忧。亚特兰大联 储主席博斯蒂克周五表示，最新就业数据令人担忧，或暗示美国经济正在更广泛地走弱。他在接受采访 时称，这份就业报告"具有重要意义"，并指出此前数据的下修"幅度相当大"。 美国劳工部最新公布的数据显示，7月非农就业岗位仅增加7.3万个，远低于市场预期的11万个；而6月 的就业数据也被大幅下修，从原先估计的逾20万个下调至仅1.4万个。 尽管如此，博斯蒂克表示，目前劳动力市场"在许多方面仍然良好"，并称即便面对这份数据，他也不会 改变本周联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的利率决定。他指出，这些就业数据可能意味着经济中的风险"正 在趋于平衡"，但他强调，当前通胀距离美联储2%的目标仍较远，相较之下，就业市场的偏离程度较 小。 对于市场期待的2025年更多降息可能，博斯蒂克态度谨慎，称"尚未准备"提高降息预测。他还表示，在 当前复杂的经济环境中，企业可能需要长达12个月时间来调整其定价策略，"我认为我们现在处在一个 非常困难的环境里。" 哈马克进一步表示，失业率作为"我们拥有的最可靠指标之一"，仍然处于过去一年内的常规区间，因此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous occurrence of the $39 billion 10-year U.S. Treasury auction and the critical Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to create significant market volatility, breaking the recent calm in the U.S. Treasury market [1][4][6] Group 1: CPI Data Impact - The upcoming CPI report for May is a key indicator of U.S. inflation, directly influencing consumer living costs, business production costs, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [3][5] - If the CPI data exceeds market expectations, it may lead to increased inflation pressure, raising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, which could result in falling bond prices and rising yields [5] - Conversely, if the CPI data is below expectations, it may ease inflation pressure, enhancing the appeal of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset, leading to rising bond prices and falling yields [5] Group 2: Treasury Auction Dynamics - The outcome of the 10-year Treasury auction will reflect market demand for U.S. Treasuries, influencing yields and the overall bond market [3][4] - A strong auction demand, indicated by a high bid-to-cover ratio, would suggest high market confidence in U.S. Treasuries, potentially stabilizing yields [5] - Conversely, weak auction results, such as a low bid-to-cover ratio or even a failed auction, could lead to a significant rise in yields and spread panic in the market [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The combination of the CPI report and the Treasury auction is likely to signal the end of the recent period of calm in the U.S. Treasury market, prompting investors and financial institutions to reassess their strategies [4][6] - Global investors, financial institutions, and policymakers need to closely monitor these events, as they will influence future market dynamics and economic policies [6]