Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July, the highest increase in three years, against an expectation of 0.2%[1] - Year-on-year, the PPI increased by 3.3%, surpassing the expected 2.5%[1] - The Australian economy growth forecast for 2023 was downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that conditions for a rate cut are maturing, suggesting a potential 0.25% cut in September[2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduced the cash rate by 0.25% to 3.6%, the lowest in two years, aligning with market expectations[2] - The RBA maintained inflation forecasts at 3% for this year and 2.9% for next year[2] Group 3: Currency Trends - Following the interest rate decision, the Australian dollar (AUD) briefly rose above 0.655 against the US dollar (USD) but later consolidated around 0.649[3] - The AUD is expected to fluctuate between 0.61 and 0.69 against the USD in the second half of the year[3] - If the AUD stabilizes above 0.645, it may present a buying opportunity[3]

花旗分析师预期，美联储或于9月重启降息周期，今年余下时间可能共降息三次，每次25个基点。美汇 指数3个月预测为95.89，6到12个月预测为97.93。 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, surpassing the market expectation of 2.4%[1] - The PCE price index rose from 2.3% to 2.6% year-on-year in June, with core PCE increasing to 2.8%[1] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive hold[2] - Following the employment report, the probability of a rate cut in September surged to approximately 80%[3] - The Fed's hawkish stance previously led to a six-day rise in the U.S. dollar index, which reached a high of 100.257[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 400 points after the employment data release, while the Nasdaq dropped over 2%[3] - The U.S. dollar index experienced short-term weakness, retreating to around 99 after the non-farm payroll data[3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, surpassing the market expectation of 2.4%[1] - The PCE price index increased from 2.3% to 2.6% year-on-year in June, while the core PCE index rose to 2.8%[1] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive hold[2] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to approximately 80% following the employment data release[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the employment report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 400 points, and the Nasdaq dropped more than 2%[3] - The U.S. Dollar Index briefly rose above 100, reaching a two-month high at 100.257 before retreating to around 99[3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent focus in the market is the narrowing of the AH share premium, with UBS indicating that unless there is a significant influx of additional liquidity into the A-shares, the AH premium will remain at its current low mid-range levels [1] Group 1: AH Share Premium Dynamics - UBS statistics show a high correlation coefficient of 0.83 between the AH share premium and the US dollar index over the past 15 years, suggesting that a weaker dollar typically leads to a narrower AH premium, indicating better performance of H-shares relative to A-shares [1] - The changes in the AH share price differential are largely influenced by the liquidity differences between onshore and offshore markets [1] Group 2: Impact of Dollar Fluctuations - During periods of a weaker dollar, global liquidity tends to improve, resulting in capital inflows into emerging markets, and vice versa [1] - Despite the narrowing premium, UBS believes that A-shares will still benefit moderately from a slight strengthening of the RMB against the USD when the dollar declines [1] Group 3: Emerging Market Performance - UBS estimates that over the past decade, a 10% decline in the US dollar index has led to a relative increase of 9% in emerging market equities [1] - From a profitability perspective, Chinese companies with significant costs tied to imports or heavy dollar-denominated debt exposure are likely to benefit from a weaker dollar [1]