责任编辑：张俊 SF065 随着杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）任期即将在2026年5月结束，美联储主席候选人将面对一个意见分 裂的委员会——需在高通胀与趋冷的就业市场之间取得平衡，意味着2026年政策宽松将趋于谨慎。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 随着杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）任期即将在2026年5月结束，美联储主席候选人将面对一个意见分 裂的委员会——需在高通胀与趋冷的就业市场之间取得平衡，意味着2026年政策宽松将趋于谨慎。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 13498, with an opening price of 13631 CNY/kg and a current price of 13563 CNY/kg, reflecting an increase of 0.48% [1] - The highest price reached was 13882 CNY/kg, while the lowest was 13450 CNY/kg, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - The overall trend for silver TD remains bullish despite a slight pullback, with support levels identified between 13000-13500 and resistance levels between 13800-14000 [3] Group 2 - Kevin Hassett is reported as the frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, with potential implications for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar [2] - The timeline suggests that Hassett's nomination could be announced by Christmas, with the earliest he could officially take over being June 2026 [2] - The first quarter following the new chair's nomination is critical for market expectations, with potential for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar to experience fluctuations based on the new chair's stance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market has shifted back to the Federal Reserve following President Trump's announcement regarding the successor to Chairman Powell, with a decision expected early next year [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump has indicated he has identified a successor for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with an announcement planned for early next year [1]. - Deutsche Bank noted that Powell could choose to remain on the board after his term as chairman ends in May 2026, despite the common belief that he would leave the Fed entirely [1]. - Historically, only two out of fifteen past Federal Reserve chairmen have chosen to remain on the board after their chairmanship, providing a significant context for Powell's potential decision [1]. Group 2: Historical Precedents - The first chairman to remain on the board after his term was Charles Hamlin, who served from 1914 and stayed for twenty years post-chairmanship [2]. - The second notable precedent is Marriner Eccles, who remained on the board after his chairmanship ended in 1948, partly due to his respect in the market and the president's inability to force him out [2]. Group 3: Future Implications for Powell - Powell may face a similar situation in 2026, where he could choose to stay on the board to protect the Fed's independence if the political environment threatens its monetary policy [3]. - The decision on whether Powell will remain on the board will largely depend on the nominee for the next Federal Reserve chairman [3]. - There is significant attention from Wall Street regarding whether Powell will completely exit the Federal Reserve after his term ends, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggesting that Powell should resign from the board to avoid market confusion [3].

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler creates a significant vacancy within the Federal Reserve, potentially impacting future appointments and the timeline for the succession of current Chairman Jerome Powell [1] Group 1: Resignation Details - Adriana Kugler announced her resignation from the Federal Reserve Board, effective August 8, ahead of her term's original end date of January 31, 2026 [1] - Following her departure, Kugler will return to Georgetown University as a professor [1] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Leadership - Kugler's early exit may disrupt the timeline surrounding the succession process for Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year [1] - President Trump has previously indicated intentions to dismiss Powell, advocating for significantly lower interest rates [1] - Trump has the authority to nominate a new Federal Reserve Governor to fill Kugler's vacancy, with speculation that he may choose a potential future chairman for this position [1]

Group 1 - Kevin Hassett is a leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, with significant backing from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [1][5] - The selection process for the new Fed Chair has officially begun, with Trump deeply involved in the decision-making [5][6] - Hassett has aligned closely with Trump's economic views, contrasting with previous advisors who attempted to moderate Trump's impulses [2][6] Group 2 - Concerns are rising about the independence of the Federal Reserve, as Trump's criticism of Powell and the potential appointment of a compliant Chair could threaten market stability [1][3] - Economists warn that a Fed Chair perceived as aligned with the White House may lead to increased inflation and volatility in the bond market [3] - The ongoing debate about the Fed's monetary policy and its implications for the economy is critical, especially with upcoming midterm elections [5][6] Group 3 - Hassett's previous experience includes serving as the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers and working as an economist at the Federal Reserve [6] - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has been evident, with public criticisms escalating over time, particularly regarding interest rate decisions [8][9] - The potential for confusion in the markets exists if a former Fed Chair remains on the board after their term, which could complicate the transition to a new leadership [9]

Market Overview - Bitcoin reached a high of $119,940 and a low of $115,736, with a volatility of 4,204 points, while Ethereum peaked at $3,144 and dipped to $2,932, showing a volatility of 212 points [1] - A total of 106,261 individuals were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $353 million [1] Liquidation Data - 1-hour liquidation amounted to $3.77 million, while 4-hour liquidation was $21.02 million [2] - 12-hour liquidation reached $128 million, and 24-hour liquidation totaled $353 million [2] Market Sentiment and Opportunities - The Federal Reserve's policy remains unaffected by the CPI report, with expectations for a 100% rate cut in September [2] - The selection process for the successor to Fed Chair Powell has begun, with market observers watching the influence of the "shadow Fed" [2] - Ethereum's ecosystem is gaining attention, with strong interest in tokens like ENA, AAVE, UNI, EIGEN, ETHFI, and ARB [2] Price Movements and Predictions - Bitcoin's recent price movements indicate a potential upward trend, with a key support level at $114,000 [5] - Ethereum has reached a new high of $3,152, marking a significant milestone, with expectations for further upward movement if Bitcoin stabilizes [7][10] Trading Strategies - The current market dynamics suggest that holding onto cryptocurrencies is preferable, as the recent pullbacks are viewed as temporary [7] - Short-term trading strategies include monitoring key support levels and potential entry points for Bitcoin around $114,000 [5] Altcoin Performance - The BSC ecosystem is performing strongly, while other assets are showing lackluster performance [3] - Recent altcoin movements indicate a potential "alt season," with significant gains observed in various tokens [12]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, expressed confidence in the advancement of Trump's comprehensive tax bill, expecting it to be signed before July 4 [2] - Becerra described the legislation as the "beginning of addressing the debt issue" and opposed the idea of cutting Medicaid programs [2] - He criticized the previous administration's reliance on short-term debt issuance and indicated a preference for a different strategy moving forward [2][3] Group 2 - Becerra noted that the current 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.26%, while the 2-year and 12-month yields are 3.73% and 3.81%, respectively [2] - He anticipates that as inflation slows, yields across all maturities may decline, suggesting a parallel downward shift in the yield curve [2] - On trade issues, Becerra stated that tariffs have not yet caused inflation and expects a flurry of trade agreements to be signed before the July 9 deadline [3]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is considering announcing a successor to current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell earlier than expected due to dissatisfaction with Powell's slow interest rate cuts, despite Powell having 11 months left in his term [1][2][12]. Group 1: Potential Candidates - Trump is reportedly considering former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as potential successors, along with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [4][12]. - Other names mentioned include former World Bank President David Malpass and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller as possible contenders [6][24]. - Bessent has shown interest in the position of Fed Chair, despite publicly committing to his role as Treasury Secretary [21][22]. Group 2: Timing and Implications - If Trump announces a successor in the summer or fall, it would be significantly earlier than the traditional three to four months transition period, potentially allowing the new chair to influence market expectations regarding interest rates before Powell's term ends [8][29]. - The early announcement could create a "shadow chair" dynamic, where the new appointee may face challenges in publicly criticizing Powell while needing Senate support for confirmation [29][30]. Group 3: Market and Policy Impact - The potential for a new chair to influence monetary policy discussions is evident, as Waller has already advocated for early interest rate cuts, indicating that the succession debate is affecting Fed policy discussions [26][28]. - Trump's strategy has evolved, as he previously threatened to fire Powell but later retracted that statement amid market instability, highlighting the delicate balance between political influence and Fed independence [29]. Group 4: Candidate Characteristics - Warsh is seen as a strong candidate but has a reputation for being hawkish, focusing more on inflation than employment, which could complicate his potential appointment [14][15]. - Hassett has expressed disinterest in the Fed Chair position, while Bessent's close relationship with Trump may enhance his candidacy [19][22]. - Waller's appeal lies in his tactical positioning within the Fed, as he is viewed as a long-term competitor for the chairmanship [25].