摘要北京时间周三（1月28日）亚市盘中，美元指数交投于96.053附近，现货黄金开盘于5173.51美元/盎 司，目前交投于5185.87美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于1162.32元/克附近，沪金主力交投于1167.02元/克 附近。 北京时间周三（1月28日）亚市盘中，美元指数交投于96.053附近，现货黄金开盘于5173.51美元/盎司， 目前交投于5185.87美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于1162.32元/克附近，沪金主力交投于1167.02元/克附 近。 上一交易日美元指数收跌1.33%，报95.758，现货黄金收涨3.37%，报5179.16美元/盎司。在现货黄金下 跌之际，其他贵金属涨跌不一：现货白银收涨7.93%，报112.14美元/盎司；现货铂金收涨2.50%，报 2649.30美元/盎司；现货钯金收跌0.97%，至1930.00美元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 5、印欧自贸易协定公布：超90%欧盟出口商品关税将被取消或降低，汽车关税将逐步降至10%。欧盟 将在7年内分阶段把印度商品的关税降至零，汽车、钢铁和农产品除外。 6、英国首相斯塔默将访华。 【今日重点关注的财经数据与事件】 08 ...

川普：不担心美元贬值，可以让其像悠悠球一样涨跌。 美联储传声筒：美联储预计将暂停降息，恢复降息的路径尚不明确。 川普：已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。 1月28日 资讯分享 周二，因持续的经济和地缘政治不确定性，投资者继续涌向贵金属。现货黄金开盘持续上涨，重回5080 美元附近后陷入震荡，随后在美盘时段暴力拉升，并将历史新高刷新至5190美元上方，最终收涨 3.41%，报5179.40美元/盎司；现货白银日内震荡上行，并重回110关口上方，最终大涨8.39%，报112.32 美元/盎司。 由于一场冬季风暴导致美国原油产量锐减，原油一度跳涨近3%。WTI原油在美盘前开启涨势，并冲上 62美元，最终收涨2.84%，报62.65美元/桶；布伦特原油收涨2.61%，报66.53美元/桶。 ...

钛媒体App 1月27日消息，"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos表示，美联储官员本周预计将自去年9月连续三 次降息以来首次维持利率不变。问题是，何种情况会促使美联储再次启动降息。答案取决于以下哪种风 险先显现：劳动力市场出现崩溃，或通胀向2%的目标水平显著回落。自去年12月上次会议以来，这两 者都尚未发生。结果是，即便白宫施加了巨大政治压力，委员会仍处于观望状态。大多数官员仍认为今 年晚些时候仍可能降息，但对何时数据会支持降息存在分歧。（广角观察） ...

智通财经APP获悉，美联储将于美东时间周二召开联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议，市场普遍预计， 美联储将暂停降息周期。随着就业市场趋于稳定，数月来日益加深的内部裂痕有所弥合，美联储决策层 在一定程度上恢复了共识。 包括一些与主席关系密切的官员在内的多位人士已发出信号，认为在连续三次降息后，当前的利率水平 已处于合适位置，既能支撑就业，又能持续对通胀构成下行压力。 招聘活动的急剧放缓曾令担心劳动力市场临近临界点的官员感到不安。但另一阵营则仍对通胀保持警 惕，并在每次降息后更强烈地提出反对。到12月时，鲍威尔几乎面临一场"起义"，有多达八位地区联储 主席持反对意见。由于政府停摆导致数据缺失，这一分歧被进一步放大。 近期的数据为这场辩论稍稍降温。截至12月的年内核心消费者价格通胀率为2.6%，低于预期，安抚了 政策鹰派的神经。 在就业方面，失业率在11月升至4.5%的四年高点后，已小幅回落。其他劳动力市场指标也让人放心， 目前看不到裁员潮的迹象，尽管招聘活动仍然疲软。 "总体而言，形势并不紧迫，无需美联储采取任何政策行动，" 世界大型企业联合会高级美国经济学家 叶连娜·舒利亚季耶娃表示。她对就业的担忧仍甚于通胀， ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes did not significantly impact the bond and foreign exchange markets, as they confirmed market expectations for a pause in rate cuts next month [1][1] - Analyst Stephen Brown from Capital Economics noted that the minutes indicate a general support within the Federal Open Market Committee for at least a temporary pause in further rate cuts [1][1] - Brown emphasized that the minutes appear somewhat outdated due to the delayed data released after the meeting [1][1] Market Data - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is reported at 4.13% [1][1] - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is reported at 3.45% [1][1]

Economic Overview - The U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, slightly above the market expectation of 50,000, but the overall employment trend remains sluggish[8] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6%, exceeding the expected 4.5%, indicating a potential increase in labor market pressures[8] - November's CPI growth in the U.S. was 2.7%, significantly below the expected 3.1%, with core CPI at 2.6%, also below expectations[14] Market Performance - In the commodities market, COMEX copper rose by 2.3%, while IPE crude oil futures fell by 1.1% and the S&P-Goldman commodity index decreased by 0.5%[2] - Emerging market stocks underperformed compared to developed markets, with the Nikkei 225 dropping 2.6% and the Hang Seng Index down 1.1%[2] - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of 0.1%, while the emerging market stock index fell by 1.5%[2] Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate cuts, with the new chair expected to be announced in early 2026[4] - The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, indicating a potential for gradual future increases[30] - The European Central Bank has maintained its rates, suggesting that the current easing cycle may be nearing its end[29] Risk Factors - Political pressures from Trump could threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve, while the U.S. unemployment rate may face nonlinear deterioration risks[32]

Group 1: Global Asset Performance - Commodity prices showed mixed performance, with IPE crude oil futures down 1.1% and the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index down 0.5%, while COMEX copper rose 2.3% and London gold increased by 1.0% [1][4] - Emerging market stocks underperformed compared to developed markets, with the Nikkei 225 down 2.6% and the Hang Seng Index down 1.1%. The Shanghai Composite Index remained flat, while the S&P 500 rose 0.1% [1][4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.16%, while domestic 10Y government bond futures prices dropped by 0.1% [1][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators in the U.S. - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, slightly above expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the anticipated 4.5% [6][12] - The November CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from September and significantly below the expected 3.1% [8] - Retail sales in October showed a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from September, primarily due to declines in auto sales and gasoline prices [11] Group 3: Policy Developments - The Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts, with the new chairperson expected to be announced in early 2026 [20][22] - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting, indicating that the rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end [20][22] - The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, signaling potential for further gradual increases in the future [21][22]

Group 1 - Citic Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts in January 2024, despite mixed employment data in November [1] - The November non-farm payrolls showed a significant decrease, influenced by federal employees opting for a "delayed resignation" program, which affected overall employment figures [1] - The report indicates that if the unemployment rate does not continue to rise in December, the Federal Reserve will likely view the current policy rate as "well positioned" [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities highlights that the current valuation of the securities sector is at a historical low, with mid-to-long-term capital entering the market rapidly, maintaining high market activity [2] - The capital market is exhibiting a "healthy bull" trend, driven by wealth management transformation, international business expansion, and financial technology empowerment [2] - The sector is positioned for both defensive rebounds and offensive strategies due to its low valuation [2] Group 3 - Huaxi Securities notes that in the absence of a technology rotation, there is a focus on the high-low cut logic within the consumer sector [3] - As of December, the market's willingness to chase technology stocks has decreased, while funds are still attempting to break out [3] - Consumer growth has slowed according to November economic data, and with the central economic work conference prioritizing "demand-led growth" for 2026, there are expectations for policy enhancements [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts if significant shocks occur in the economy [1] Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the central bank is prepared to halt rate cuts in response to major economic disruptions [1]