Report Overview - Report Title: Plastic Industry Daily Report 2025-08-05 [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558) - Assistant Researcher: Xu Tianze (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03133092) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - L2509 fluctuated strongly and closed at 7323 yuan/ton. The supply side saw the restart of previously shut - down plants, with last week's PE production up 3.31% to 63.55 million tons and capacity utilization up 2.14% to 81.97%. The demand side had the average downstream product start - up rate up 0.3%, with the agricultural film start - up rate stable. Production enterprise inventory decreased 13.94% to 43.28 million tons, and social inventory increased 2.49% to 57.57 million tons, with low overall inventory pressure. In the short - term, PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise. In the long - term, new production capacity will increase supply pressure. Demand is weak, and L2509 is under pressure. Technically, pay attention to the support around 7200 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7323, up 44; 1 - month contract was 7387, up 36; 5 - month contract was 7374, up 31; 9 - month contract was 7323, up 44 - Volume was 183396 hands, down 81362; Open interest was 301516 hands, up 1254 - 1 - 5 month contract spread was 13, up 5 - Futures前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) was 325807, up 11056;卖单量 was 342832, up 6077;净买单量 was - 17025, up 4979 [2] Spot Market - LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) was 7284.35, down 32.61;华东(日,元/吨) was 7367.62, down 17.86 - Basis was 5.35, up 5.39 [2] Upstream Situation - FOB:中间价:石脑油:新加坡地区(日,美元/桶) was 62.75, down 2.13; CFR:中间价:石脑油:日本地区(日,美元/吨) was 584.63, down 19.25 - 乙烯:CFR东南亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) was 831, unchanged; CFR东北亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) was 821, unchanged [2] Industry Situation -开工率:PE:石化:全国(日,%) was 81.09, up 2.12 [2] Downstream Situation -开工率:聚乙烯(PE):包装膜(周,%) was 48.7, up 0.63;管材(周,%) was 28.67, down 0.16;农膜(周,%) was 12.63, unchanged [2] Option Market - 历史波动率:20日:聚乙烯(日,%) was 12.58, up 0.17; 40日:聚乙烯(日,%) was 13.41, up 0.04 - 平值看跌期权隐含波动率:聚乙烯(日,%) was 11.15, up 3.87;平值看涨期权隐含波动率:聚乙烯(日,%) was 11.15, up 3.87 [2] Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, China's polyethylene production was 63.55 million tons, up 3.31% - From July 25th to 31st, the average start - up rate of PE downstream products in China increased by 0.3% - As of July 30th, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 43.28 million tons, down 13.94%; As of August 2nd, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 57.57 million tons, up 2.49% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyethylene market is under pressure to accumulate inventory and has entered a weak and volatile phase [1]. - The actual inventory accumulation was slight this week, contrary to the expected destocking [5]. - The upstream profit is expected to continue to weaken, and attention should be paid to whether the import volume decreases in June [6]. - The basis fluctuated this week, and the inter - month spread fluctuated weakly [6]. - The HD - LL spread fluctuated, and it is recommended to temporarily exit and wait and see for the far - month LL - PP spread [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Main Contradictions - Next week, the number of device overhauls will increase, and production may continue to decrease [5]. - The import volume this week was 28.89 million tons, and the main reason for the decrease was the reduction of US goods in the early stage. The apparent demand this week was worse than expected [5]. - The overall upstream operating rate was 60.10%, and the production decreased slightly this week. The total inventory was expected to be destocked but actually increased slightly [5]. - Crude oil prices fluctuated, and coal prices showed a weakening trend. The comprehensive profit of the oil - chemical end decreased, and the profit of coal - based PE also decreased [6]. 2. Polyethylene Industry Situation Supply - From 2024 to 2025, there were multiple new PE device launches, including Ningxia Baofeng Phase III, Tianjin Nangang, Yulong Petrochemical, etc. in 2024, and Inner Mongolia Baofeng, Exxon (Huizhou), etc. in 2025 [19][20]. - The production and import volume data from June 2025 to August 2025 are provided, and the cumulative production and import volume showed an increasing trend [8]. Demand - The downstream average operating rate, film - covering operating rate, and mulching film operating rate data are not clearly stated in the text, but it is mentioned that the downstream replenishment was not sustainable this week, and the transaction volume decreased [5][7]. - The profits of downstream products such as mulching film, double - prevention film, and winding film are presented in the form of charts, but specific profit data for this week are not clearly summarized [34][35][37]. Inventory - The upstream inventory of "Two - oil" decreased slightly, and the intermediate - level inventory of ports and traders also decreased. However, the total inventory increased slightly this week [5]. - The inventory data from 2020 to 2025 are presented in the form of charts, including petrochemical inventory, total PE inventory, upstream total inventory, and social inventory [42][43][45]. Valuation - The upstream profit, import and export profit, basis, inter - month spread, and variety spread data are provided. The upstream profit generally showed a weakening trend, and the basis and inter - month spread fluctuated [6]. 3. Basis and Spread - The basis fluctuated this week. The North China basis quoted around 09 - 70 on Friday, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm decreased [50]. - The inter - month spread, such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 inter - month spreads, fluctuated weakly [6]. - The variety spread, such as HD - LL and LD - LL, also showed different trends of change [6]. 4. Summary and Outlook - It is necessary to beware of the callback risk, and the strategy is to buy out - of - the - money put options and sell call options [7]. - If the demand improves next week, the upstream inventory may decrease [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The LLDPE industry is rated as "Weakly Bearish" with a trend strength of -1 [3][4] Core View of the Report - LLDPE is expected to run weakly in the short term due to factors such as the collapse of plastic costs from falling crude oil prices, high supply pressure, and weak demand [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of L2509 futures was 7444, down 0.03% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 421,810 and a decrease of 7189 in open interest [1] - The 09 - contract basis was -54, and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 75, compared to -15 and 68 the previous day respectively [1] - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7390 yuan/ton, 7500 yuan/ton, and 7550 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10 yuan/ton, +50 yuan/ton, and no change from the previous day [1] Spot News - LLDPE market prices remained firm at high levels, with price fluctuations ranging from 10 - 50 yuan/ton. Linear futures oscillated weakly, but most petrochemical companies kept prices stable, and some prices in CNPC Northwest and CNPC East China Shandong warehouses were raised, supporting the market atmosphere. However, downstream factories showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and low purchasing enthusiasm [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macroscopically, Iran's acceptance of the US cease - fire plan led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing the collapse of plastic costs and the expected reversal of the premium from import risks. Also, high - price transactions in the polyethylene spot market weakened significantly, and the basis continued to decline, resulting in a negative feedback in the industry chain [2] - In terms of supply and demand, for the 2025 09 contract, the new domestic PE plant capacity is expected to be 2.05 million tons, with high supply pressure. Although there were many maintenance operations in June, it was not enough to change the high - output pattern. The demand side is in the traditional off - season for the shed film industry, with weak market demand and low orders. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous period. Downstream factories have insufficient continuous restocking power [2] - Attention should be paid to the price difference changes between low - density and linear polyethylene, as well as between LDPE and EVA products. If full - density plants continue to switch production to HDPE, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The rebound of LLDPE is difficult to sustain, and it will be in a mid - term oscillatory market. Factors such as cost increase, supply - demand imbalance, and weak demand on the consumer side all contribute to this situation. There are also potential changes in supply due to capacity switching [1][2]. 3. Key Points from Each Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2509 was 7415, with a daily decline of - 0.38%, trading volume of 414,225, and an increase of 6149 in positions [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 09 - contract basis was - 15, compared to - 82 the previous day; the 09 - 01 contract spread was 68, compared to 63 the previous day [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the North China region, it was 7400 yuan/ton (7380 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 7450 yuan/ton; in the South China region, it was 7550 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot News The upward trend of LLDPE market prices slowed down, with price fluctuations between 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened high and closed low. Some prices of PetroChina and Sinopec were raised, but traders were more cautious, and downstream factories were hesitant to buy, resulting in poor transactions [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Macro - factors**: The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran led to a significant rebound in crude oil prices, raising the cost of polyethylene. In 2024, Iran's polyethylene imports were 133.02 million tons, accounting for 9.6% of the total imports, and there may be import disruptions in the future. However, the high - price transactions in the polyethylene spot market weakened, and the basis continued to decline [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: In the 2025 09 - contract, the expected new domestic PE plant capacity is 2.05 million tons, with high supply pressure. Although there are many maintenance activities in June, it cannot change the high - production pattern. The demand side is weak, with the greenhouse film industry in the off - season and low orders. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate decreased by - 0.7% compared to the previous period. Downstream factories' continuous restocking ability is insufficient [2]. - **Future Considerations**: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene, as well as the price difference between LDPE and EVA products. If full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE production, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3][4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - LLDPE is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [1] - Due to the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, the cost of polyethylene has increased, making its price strong in the short - term. There may be import disturbances as Iran's polyethylene imports accounted for 9.6% (133.02 million tons) of the total in 2024 [2] - In the 09 contract of 2025, the new domestic PE device capacity is expected to be 2.05 billion tons, with high supply pressure. Although there are many overhauls in June, the high - production pattern remains unchanged. Demand is weakening, and downstream factories' continuous restocking is insufficient to drive significant destocking of polyethylene [2] - Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - pressure and linear polyethylene. As HDPE inventory has been declining and is lower than the same period, the HD - LL price difference has widened, and there may be a capacity switch between the two. Some device conversions have occurred, which may relieve the LLDPE supply pressure [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of L2509 was 7258, up 1.88% from the previous day. The trading volume was 662,862, and the open interest decreased by 35,348 [1] - Basis and spread: The basis of the 09 contract was - 108, and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 29 [1] - Spot prices: In North China, it was 7150 yuan/ton; in East China, 7180 yuan/ton; in South China, 7450 yuan/ton, all higher than the previous day [1] Spot News - The LLDPE market price increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. International oil prices rose, driving up plastic futures. Petrochemical ex - factory prices mostly increased, and traders raised prices. However, downstream demand was weak, and the trading atmosphere was poor [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macro: The conflict between Israel and Iran led to a sharp rebound in crude oil prices, raising the cost of polyethylene [2] - Supply and demand: High supply pressure with new capacity in 2025. Demand in the agricultural film sector is in the off - season, and the packaging film demand is average. Downstream restocking is not strong enough [2] - Capacity switch: The HD - LL price difference has widened, and some devices have switched production. If the trend continues, LLDPE supply pressure may ease [2] Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - LLDPE is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term. Considering factors such as continuous commissioning of new production capacity, weak demand, and falling costs, there is still pressure on the polyethylene trend in the medium - term [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2509 yesterday was 7187, with a daily increase of 2.34%. The trading volume was 455,073 and the open interest changed by - 3834. The 09 contract basis was 4 (previous day was 3), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 6 (previous day was 2) [3] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China yesterday were 7230, 7300, and 7450 yuan/ton respectively, compared with 7160, 7230, and 7360 yuan/ton the day before [3] 2. Spot News - The LLDPE market price increased slightly, with a price range of 30 - 100 yuan/ton. The linear futures fluctuated at a high level, boosting market sentiment. Most petrochemical ex - factory prices were stable today. Traders tentatively raised prices, but the enthusiasm of end - users to purchase improved limitedly. They purchased raw materials according to orders, and the actual transactions were negotiated on a case - by - case basis [3] 3. Market Condition Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: The temporary reconciliation between China and the US has a positive impact on market sentiment [4] - **Supply - demand**: In the short - term, the rush to export plastic products supports the market, making the short - term polyethylene trend strong. However, there is still significant pressure from the commissioning of polyethylene supply this year, and the market may still tend to short polyethylene profits later. In 2024, the value of Chinese plastic products exported to the US accounted for 16.75% of the total plastic exports, and this proportion has been declining in recent years. After the US imposes additional tariffs, the downward trend of Chinese plastic product exports to the US may be more obvious. In the 09 contract of 2025, the expected new production capacity of domestic PE devices is 2.55 million tons, and the supply pressure is still large. Although the maintenance volume increased from May to June, it is not enough to change the high - production pattern. On the demand side, affected by the trade war, the peak season for agricultural films has passed, and the demand will continue to decline later. The demand for packaging films is average. Therefore, although downstream factories replenish inventory at low prices periodically, the continuous replenishment strength is insufficient, making it difficult to lead to obvious destocking of polyethylene and form a positive feedback [4] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [6]