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国泰海通|策略:稳固优化:中国权益仍具备上行动能
Group 1 - The article highlights concerns about the resilience of the US economy due to significant downward revisions in employment data, which may impact market perceptions and bond yield configurations [1] - The outlook for A-shares remains highly optimistic due to continuous upgrades in economic sentiment, strong government support for capital markets, stable market liquidity, improving risk appetite, and optimized micro trading structures [1] - The article suggests that multiple factors are likely to support the performance of Chinese assets, maintaining a tactical overweight view on A-shares [1] Group 2 - The article maintains a tactical overweight view on US equities, despite short-term doubts about economic resilience stemming from employment data revisions [2] - It notes that global geopolitical conditions have eased, leading to reduced concerns over oil supply, while global oil demand remains weak, resulting in a tactical underweight view on oil [2] - The article emphasizes that the strong risk appetite is beneficial for supporting the stability of the RMB exchange rate, maintaining a tactical benchmark view on the currency [2]
稳固优化:中国权益仍具备上行动能
Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight in A-shares and US stocks, a neutral position in RMB, and an underweight in oil [1][15][16] - A-shares are expected to perform well due to improving economic sentiment, strong government support for capital markets, stable market liquidity, and an improving micro trading structure [15][16] - The US stock market is viewed positively despite recent employment data revisions, with expectations of continued resilience in the economy [15][16] Group 2 - The report highlights that the oil market remains under pressure from both supply and demand sides, leading to a tactical underweight recommendation for oil [15][16] - The RMB is expected to maintain stability and appreciate due to the resilient growth momentum of the Chinese economy compared to other major economies [15][17] - The tactical asset allocation strategy reflects expectations of high risk-return ratios for Chinese equities and US stocks, while suggesting a cautious approach towards oil investments [15][16][17]