Group 1 - The recent U.S. employment data shows a seemingly strong recovery with 147,000 new jobs added in June, surpassing the expected 106,000, and an unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% [3] - However, a closer look reveals that 73,000 of the new jobs were from government sectors, while the private sector only added 74,000, marking a near two-year low [3] - Concerns arise from increased layoffs in small businesses and a rebound in long-term unemployment, with the median duration of unemployment nearing pandemic highs [3] Group 2 - The expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have shifted significantly, with the probability of a July cut dropping from 25% to nearly zero, and the September cut probability falling from 98% to below 80% [3] - The importance of liquidity in the stock market is emphasized, as it is considered the primary driver of market performance [4] - Historical data indicates that during bull markets, retail investors often incur significant losses, while institutional investors achieve substantial gains [5][6] Group 3 - The disparity in performance between institutional and retail investors is attributed to the ability to track capital flows effectively [8] - Specific examples of stock performance post-September 24, 2024, illustrate the differences in institutional interest, with one stock experiencing a decline while another continued to rise [10][14] - The analysis of institutional inventory data reveals that stocks with sustained institutional interest tend to perform better over time [16] Group 4 - The implications of U.S. employment data extend to global liquidity conditions, influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and, consequently, global capital market performance [18] - The structural risks hidden within the strong employment figures suggest potential challenges for future monetary policy decisions [18]

美国财政部会加大短债发行力度给牛市"续命"吗？ 标普500近期的惊人反弹令人侧目，距离历史高点仅一步之遥。然而彭博宏观策略师Simon White的分析 显示，每当中长债的净发行量（Net debt issue，债务发行总额减去债务偿还总额后的差额）接近或超过 财政赤字的100%时，股市必然陷入横盘或下跌。 这一规律在2008年、2010年、2015年、2018年、2022年以及当前均得到验证——几乎涵盖了全球金融危 机以来除疫情外的每一次股市低迷期。 目前美国中长债净发行量占赤字的比例接近100%，长债净发行量占到80%，而政府债务总发行量 （Gross debt issue）增速却在放缓。这种"反黄金法则"的组合对股市而言堪称最坏情况：中长债发行对 市场流动性的"挤出效应"正扼杀股市的上行动力，而财政赤字带来的增长刺激远不足以抵消这一冲击。 数据显示，当中长债净发行占比赤字超85%，且总发行增长率下降时，标普500在1-12个月内的表现均 显著低于平均水平。 2023年短债救市的成功范例 回望2023年，时任美国财政部长的耶伦曾通过大规模增发短债为市场注入活力。 当时，超2万亿美元的闲置资金囤积在美联储逆 ...

这两天境外市场上天入地，大悲之后是大喜。 虽然有点难过，但还是要接受这个现实，小日子的股市是有充沛的流动性和活力，而a股已经进入到一 个负面的循环，陆陆续续的人都是想着退出，即便卖错了他们也不愿意回头，因为都是伤透了心离开 的。 …… 上面都是下午收盘后写的，晚上出去喝酒，又喝多了，我现在脑袋左右欧呦来回晃荡，这个状态我完全 没发写东西，诸位多包涵了。我现在太困了，发完我就躺着睡了。 昨天跌了12%的日经225指数今天上涨了10%，收复了将近3/4的失地，这个表现在今天的全球反弹里属 于比较出色的，大部分的股市，比如美股（昨晚）、韩股、台股都只反弹了昨天跌幅的一半左右，日本 股市今天的激烈反弹证明了他们的市场有较强的韧性。 写到这我翻了翻昨天的数据，a股中位数下跌2.47%，今天反弹1.8%，按收复比例算的话还不错，只稍 稍逊色于日本，说明咱们也是全球领先的资本市场 需要注意的是，今天反弹较好的是创业板和科创板，以及大量的中小盘股，代表权重股的主板指数表现 惨淡，沪深300指数下午两点半的时候还是-1%，又是最后半小时靠国家队连拉带拽给拖上岸的。 ...