投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 3 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 等待政策利好预期落地 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理。消息面，上周末美伊冲突突然爆发，地缘风险快速升温，中东战 火导致霍尔木兹海峡通行受到实质性影响，油气、航运、军工、黄金等股票大幅上涨，股市成交额突 破 3 ...

(亿元) (个) HSTECH.HI 恒生科技 1998.22 13 57.38 246.90 跨境型 Au9999.SGE SGE黄金9999 2860.71 7 41.41 357.09 商品型 000852.SH 中证1000 631.29 15 27.31 -1331.89 股票型 h11014.CSI 中证短融 679.11 1 26.13 -24.14 债券型 000813.CSI 细分化工 560.67 6 18.46 295.59 股票型 h11059.CSI 工业有色 159.73 3 16.54 56.54 股票型 930781.CSI 中证影视 19.01 2 14.62 16.52 股票型 SHAU.SGE 上海金 329.00 7 14.57 69.34 商品型 950175.CSI 沪30年国债 132.52 1 12.50 -11.32 债券型 932420.CSI 智选船舶产业 12.55 1 12.10 12.10 股票型 数据来源：第一财经据Wind数据整理，截至2月10日 规模 基金数量 近1周 今年以来 指数代码 指数简称 挂钩ETF 挂钩ETF 因申赎净流入带来的ET ...

Core Viewpoint - Hongqiang Co., Ltd. (SZ002809) experienced a limit-up on January 30, 2026, reaching a price of 15.69 yuan, an increase of 8.63%, with a total market capitalization of 3.278 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 2.155 billion yuan, driven by factors such as the launch of a fine chemical project, improved corporate governance, and net capital inflow [1] Group 1 - The company focuses on concrete additives while also engaging in fine chemical products, with a recent launch of a 320,000-ton fine chemical project that, although in the ramp-up phase, is expected to provide long-term growth potential, significantly contributing to the stock price surge [1] - Corporate governance has been continuously optimized, with over 20 internal management systems revised and improved, covering areas such as information disclosure and related party transactions, which has notably enhanced governance standards and boosted market confidence [1] - On January 29, 2026, Hongqiang Co., Ltd. was included in the "Dragon and Tiger List," with a transaction volume of 724 million yuan, total purchases of 110 million yuan, and total sales of 88.9813 million yuan, indicating net buying from retail and institutional investors, which has propelled the stock price to its limit-up [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock ETF market in China has experienced significant net outflows, with over 400 billion yuan exiting on January 19, marking the third consecutive day of substantial withdrawals [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The total net outflow from stock ETFs over the past three trading days has exceeded 190 billion yuan [1] - Industry ETFs tracking power grid equipment and chemical indices have seen notable net inflows, contrasting with the overall trend [1] Group 2: Specific ETF Performance - Broad-based ETFs continue to be the primary area of outflow, with multiple CSI 300 ETFs experiencing net outflows exceeding 50 billion yuan [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of IH2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "slightly strong", and the overall view is "oscillating and slightly strong" due to unchanged policy利好 expectations and capital inflow trends [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "slightly strong", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillating and slightly strong". The stock market's optimism has cooled, and there is a need for shock consolidation after a sharp rebound. In the long - term, the main logic of the upward movement of stock indices remains unchanged, and it is expected that the stock indices will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: slightly strong; overall view: oscillating and slightly strong; core logic: unchanged policy利好 expectations and capital inflow trends [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Variety: IF, IH, IC, IM. Intraday view: slightly strong; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillating and slightly strong. The total market turnover was 3054.7 billion yuan, an increase of 116.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market turnover dropped to around 3 trillion yuan, indicating a cooling of optimism. After a sharp rebound, there is a need for shock consolidation. In the long - term, the main logic of the upward movement of stock indices remains unchanged [5].

- The report focuses on the analysis of the industries where Northbound funds have increased their holdings, particularly highlighting sectors such as power and new energy equipment, electronics, and metal materials and mining[1][5][13] - Northbound funds' total holdings in A-shares amounted to approximately 2.59 trillion yuan as of December 31, 2025, representing an increase of about 46 billion yuan compared to September 30, 2025[1][5][13] - Relative to the CSI 300 Index, Northbound funds were significantly overweight in the power and new energy equipment sector, with an allocation ratio of approximately 18.0%, compared to 8.6% in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in an overweight of about 9.5%[5][15] - The top five primary industries with the highest net inflows of Northbound funds in Q4 2025 were metal materials and mining, electronics, power and new energy equipment, telecommunications, and insurance[6][20] - The top five secondary industries with the highest net inflows of Northbound funds in Q4 2025 were new energy vehicle equipment, basic non-ferrous metals, communication equipment, precious metals, and components and devices[6][25]

Group 1 - On January 9, the A-share market saw a significant increase, with total trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 4100 points [2] - The net inflow of funds into stock ETFs exceeded 20 billion yuan, with notable inflows into broad-based ETFs like CSI 1000 and CSI 300, as well as industry-specific ETFs in satellite and semiconductor sectors [2][5] - The total scale of stock ETFs reached 4.99 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 269.95 billion yuan on the same day, marking an increase of over 20 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3][5] Group 2 - The leading sectors for ETF performance included media, software, and satellite industries, with the media sector having three ETFs in the top ten by growth [3][4] - The top-performing ETF on January 9 was the Media and Entertainment ETF, which saw a trading volume of 32 million yuan and a daily increase of 8.41% [4] - Conversely, overseas market-related ETFs, such as the S&P Biotech ETF and the NASDAQ Biotech ETF, experienced declines of around 1% [3] Group 3 - The net inflow of funds into industry-themed ETFs was 11.37 billion yuan, while broad-based ETFs saw a net inflow of 5.14 billion yuan, indicating a preference for thematic investments [5][6] - The CSI 1000 ETF and the CSI 300 ETF from Huatai-PineBridge were the top three in terms of net inflow, with 1.93 billion yuan and 1.79 billion yuan respectively [6][8] - Notably, 24 stock ETFs experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, particularly in the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 ETFs, as well as in sectors like chips and photovoltaics [5][7] Group 4 - Major fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund reported significant net inflows into their ETFs, with E Fund's total ETF scale reaching 877.98 billion yuan, an increase of 36.28 billion yuan since the beginning of 2026 [8][9] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF from GF Fund saw net inflows exceeding 4.4 billion yuan, reaching a new high of 33.2 billion yuan [9] - Analysts from various funds expressed a positive outlook for the A-share market in 2026, anticipating a shift from valuation-driven growth to fundamental-driven growth [9]

Choice数据显示，1月9日，资金净流入额排名前十的个股依次是：利欧股份、金发科技、昆仑万维、三 花智控、华胜天成、省广集团、易点天下、天龙集团、蓝色光标和中国联通。其中，利欧股份、金发科 技获资金净流入均超15亿元。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on financial futures in the stock index sector is that the index futures are expected to fluctuate with a strong bias after the holiday. For IH2603, the short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillatory, while the intraday trend is strong, with an overall view of oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is strong, and the overall view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is strong, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is that last Wednesday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range. The strong resilience of macro - economic indicators, combined with policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds, jointly support the stock index. In 2026, policies are gradually being implemented, and policy - favorable expectations are gradually fermenting. Against the background of the global monetary easing cycle, the trend of large - scale asset allocation to Chinese technology assets is increasing the risk appetite of the stock market. In the short term, as the stock index approaches the previous high, the technical resistance appears, and the upward trend of the stock index slows down. However, after the holiday, with the return of market liquidity and the further fermentation of policy benefits, the risk appetite of the stock market is expected to continue to recover [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on financial futures in the stock index sector is oscillating with a slight upward bias. For IH2603, it is expected to be oscillating in the short - and medium - term, and showing a slight upward trend intraday. For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is slightly upward, and the medium - term view is oscillating, with an overall view of oscillating with a slight upward bias [1][5]. - In the short term, the stock index will maintain range - bound oscillations. Although it faced technical resistance when approaching the previous high and pulled back after rising, in the long run, the positive policy expectations and the net inflow of funds will support the stock index. As policy expectations ferment and the demand for long - term funds to allocate A - shares increases, the risk appetite in the stock market will gradually rise [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | Oscillating | Oscillating | Slightly upward | Oscillating with a slight upward bias | Unchanged positive policy expectations and net inflow of funds [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Slightly upward; **Medium - term View**: Oscillating; **Reference View**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias - **Core Logic**: The stock indexes oscillated and declined yesterday. The total trading volume of the stock market was 2157.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.4 billion yuan from the previous day. As the stock index approached the previous high, it faced technical resistance and pulled back after rising. In the short term, attention should be paid to the pace of capital entry. In the long term, positive policy expectations and the net inflow of funds support the stock index. As policy expectations ferment and the demand for long - term funds to allocate A - shares increases, the risk appetite in the stock market will gradually rise [5].