SHMET 网讯：美联储一位高级官员警告称，美国贫困群体日益加剧的困境，正使这个全球最重要的经济体面临衰退风险。此番言论凸显出美联储决策 者在考虑是否于12月再次降息时面临的"平衡难题"。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯指出，数据及与社区领袖的对话均表明，许多贫困家庭正承受着支付能力危机。"大量证据显示……中低收入家庭正从支付能力 角度面临诸多制约，"威廉姆斯对《金融时报》表示，"包括生活成本、住房开支，以及许多家庭基本靠按月薪度日的现状。"与此同时，更富裕的美国人正 因股市"飙升至历史高位附近"而获益。 尽管美国整体经济韧性远超许多经济学家预期，且通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标，但弱势家庭因高昂生活成本承受的痛苦，意味着美国经济可能偏离正 轨。"某些事件可能打击信心，或者说，我们目前在总量层面看到的消费者支出增长，可能不如预期中强劲——毕竟许多人确实在依靠月度收入挣扎度 日，"同时担任利率制定机构联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）副主席的威廉姆斯解释道。 包括美联储主席鲍威尔和有影响力的理事沃勒在内的美联储官员，已开始更关注被威廉姆斯称为缺乏"强劲动力"的劳动力市场如何影响普通美国人的经 济前景。鲍威尔与沃勒指出，当前强劲的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) will join the centralized clearing repo market under Eurex in the first quarter of 2024, aiming to reduce counterparty risk in trading activities [1] Group 1: ECB and Eurex - The ECB and eurozone central banks have been lending securities to market participants, facilitating the transition to centralized clearing [1] - The move is expected to enhance the efficiency and safety of the repo market, which is crucial for the financial system [1] Group 2: Repo Market Activity - Since the ECB raised interest rates to positive territory and began reducing its bond holdings, activity in the eurozone repo market has significantly increased [1] - The outstanding transaction volume on the Eurex platform has grown by approximately 50% since the end of last year [1] Group 3: Participation of Other Central Banks - Other central banks, including the German central bank, are already members of the Eurex repo market, indicating a broader acceptance and integration of this platform within the eurozone [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the inevitability of government debt and the political incentives behind it, emphasizing that governments prefer to issue debt rather than raise taxes to fund expenditures [2][3] - It highlights the relationship between government borrowing and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, suggesting that an increase in government debt will lead to an increase in the money supply, benefiting the liquidity of the dollar and potentially driving up the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies [3][32] - The article outlines the projected federal deficits, estimating around $2 trillion annually, and discusses the implications for U.S. Treasury bond issuance and financing [6][7] Group 2 - The article identifies the primary buyers of U.S. debt, including foreign central banks, the private sector, and commercial banks, concluding that the marginal buyers are RV hedge funds, particularly those based in the Cayman Islands [9][14][12] - It explains the trading strategies of RV funds, which involve buying U.S. Treasury bonds and financing these purchases through repurchase agreements (repos) [19][21] - The article discusses the role of the Federal Reserve in managing short-term interest rates and how it influences the liquidity in the market, particularly through tools like the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) [22][28] Group 3 - The article warns of a potential liquidity crisis if RV funds cannot secure financing at favorable rates, which would hinder their ability to purchase U.S. debt and impact government financing [27][26] - It introduces the concept of "stealth quantitative easing," suggesting that the SRF will become a primary channel for injecting liquidity into the financial system without being labeled as traditional quantitative easing [32][31] - The article concludes that the current market stagnation presents opportunities, particularly as the government prepares to release additional liquidity once operations resume, which could reignite interest in cryptocurrencies [33]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing financing pressure on U.S. financial institutions since October, leading to tighter dollar liquidity and a phase of dollar appreciation. The Federal Reserve plans to end its quantitative tightening (QT) process by December 1, 2025, which includes stopping the reduction of Treasury securities while continuing to reduce MBS [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to stop shrinking its balance sheet aims to support dollar liquidity and alleviate financing pressures in the short-term financing market, which relies heavily on Treasury securities as collateral [2][21]. - The Fed's actions indicate a blurring of the lines between monetary and fiscal policy, with expectations of a potential restart of balance sheet expansion as early as Q1 next year [3][33]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Since June 2022, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by approximately $2.3 trillion, with Treasury and MBS reductions of about $1.6 trillion and $0.6 trillion, respectively [5][21]. - The liquidity in the U.S. dollar market has reached a low point since the pandemic, with narrow liquidity measures falling below the "ample liquidity" threshold [5][12]. Group 3: Financing Market Pressures - The financing market has experienced significant pressure, with borrowing through the discount window increasing since July, particularly following regional bank crises in October [10][13]. - The repo market has seen rising financing demands, with the secured overnight financing market's borrowing amount increasing from $1 trillion at the end of 2022 to $3 trillion, primarily driven by unregulated non-bank institutions [26][27]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Implications - The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" plan may increase the deficit by approximately $400 billion, with the annual deficit rate expected to widen to 6.4% [37]. - If the government ends its shutdown, nearly $1 trillion in funds from the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be injected into the market, enhancing liquidity [37]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The article suggests that under a dual expansion of fiscal and monetary policy, the nominal economic cycle in the U.S. is likely to restart, benefiting both U.S. and Chinese stock markets, as well as commodities like gold and copper [38]. - The focus for investment should be on themes of security and resilience amid changing geopolitical landscapes, emphasizing productivity enhancement and resource self-sufficiency [38].

Core Insights - The research institution Wrightson ICAP indicates that signs of funding pressure in the repurchase market may lead the Federal Reserve to halt its balance sheet reduction in the upcoming interest rate decision [1][2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted earlier this month that the central bank is waiting for the right moment to end the balance sheet reduction, with recent slight fluctuations in the repurchase market serving as a key signal [1][2] - The institution anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin purchasing U.S. Treasury securities to offset maturing mortgage-backed securities, thereby maintaining a stable overall balance sheet size [1][2] - As the Federal Reserve shifts towards a neutral policy stance, the supply of short-term Treasury securities in the market may decrease by approximately $20 billion per month [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The research institution Wrightson ICAP indicates that the Federal Reserve may announce the end of its balance sheet reduction next week due to signs of funding pressure in the repurchase market [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to halt the reduction of its bond holdings in the upcoming interest rate decision [1][2]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted earlier this month that the central bank is waiting for the right moment to end the balance sheet reduction [1][2]. - The institution anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds to offset maturing mortgage-backed securities, thereby maintaining a stable overall balance sheet size [1][2]. Group 2: Market Implications - As the Federal Reserve shifts towards a neutral policy stance, the supply of short-term government bonds in the market may decrease by approximately $20 billion per month [1][2].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 449.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 234.4 billion yuan after 214.8 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) fell below 1.4%, with the 7-day and 14-day rates also declining. Specifically, the overnight Shibor decreased by 10.10 basis points to 1.3660%, the 7-day Shibor dropped by 5.10 basis points to 1.5450%, and the 14-day Shibor fell by 0.40 basis points to 1.6310% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, the overnight rates fell by nearly 10 basis points, while the transaction volume for the 7-day products increased, with the R007 transaction volume accounting for 16.3%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreased by 9.9 basis points and 9.2 basis points, respectively, while the rates for DR007 and R007 fell by 1.6 basis points and 1.4 basis points [6] - As of July 29, there were 62 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with an actual issuance amount of 109.06 billion yuan. The overall trading sentiment for primary certificates was weak, with significant fluctuations in the current bonds [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, emphasizes that financial stability is fundamental to growth, highlighting ongoing risks and uncertainties in the market [1] Group 1: Financial Stability - Financial stability is identified as the cornerstone of economic growth [1] - There is a particular focus on leveraged strategies due to associated risks [1] - A discussion paper has been released to enhance the resilience of the repurchase market [1] Group 2: Global Economic Outlook - Global economic risks remain elevated, impacting overall market conditions [1] - The trend of a steepening yield curve is observed globally, not limited to the UK [1] - Quantitative tightening (QT) remains an open option for monetary policy [1] Group 3: Banking Sector Resilience - UK borrowers are noted for their resilience, indicating a stable borrowing environment [1] - The banking sector is positioned to provide necessary support amidst current economic challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury's increased issuance of short-term debt may be necessary to sustain the current bull market, as historical patterns indicate that high net issuance of medium to long-term debt correlates with stock market stagnation or decline [1][2][5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The net issuance of medium to long-term debt is approaching 100% of the fiscal deficit, with long-term debt net issuance accounting for 80% [2][5]. - The combination of high net issuance and slowing growth in total debt issuance is creating a challenging environment for the stock market, as the liquidity squeeze from medium to long-term debt issuance is undermining upward momentum [2][5]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical data shows that when net issuance of medium to long-term debt exceeds 85% of the fiscal deficit and total issuance growth declines, the S&P 500's performance over the next 1-12 months is significantly below average [5][7]. Group 3: Short-Term Debt as a Solution - In 2023, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen successfully revitalized the market by significantly increasing short-term debt issuance, which helped to draw down over $2 trillion in idle funds from the Federal Reserve's reverse repo (RRP) tool [10]. - Simon White suggests that to prevent a market collapse, the Treasury must reduce the net issuance of long-term debt and restart total issuance growth, implying a substantial increase in short-term debt issuance [11]. Group 4: Repo Market Dynamics - The relationship between short-term debt and the stock market is closely tied to the explosive growth of the repo market, which has become increasingly liquid and resembles a "near-money" asset [12][13]. - The growth in government debt issuance, particularly as repo collateral, has a positive correlation with stock market performance, but this relationship is more pronounced in total issuance rather than net issuance [13][14]. Group 5: Potential Challenges - Restarting short-term debt issuance may not be without consequences, as it could raise interest costs and inflation risks, complicating the Treasury's fiscal management [15]. - The current interest expenditure on U.S. debt has surpassed $1 trillion annually, and further shortening the average debt maturity could exacerbate inflationary pressures [15][17].