Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 449.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 234.4 billion yuan after 214.8 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) fell below 1.4%, with the 7-day and 14-day rates also declining. Specifically, the overnight Shibor decreased by 10.10 basis points to 1.3660%, the 7-day Shibor dropped by 5.10 basis points to 1.5450%, and the 14-day Shibor fell by 0.40 basis points to 1.6310% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, the overnight rates fell by nearly 10 basis points, while the transaction volume for the 7-day products increased, with the R007 transaction volume accounting for 16.3%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreased by 9.9 basis points and 9.2 basis points, respectively, while the rates for DR007 and R007 fell by 1.6 basis points and 1.4 basis points [6] - As of July 29, there were 62 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with an actual issuance amount of 109.06 billion yuan. The overall trading sentiment for primary certificates was weak, with significant fluctuations in the current bonds [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, emphasizes that financial stability is fundamental to growth, highlighting ongoing risks and uncertainties in the market [1] Group 1: Financial Stability - Financial stability is identified as the cornerstone of economic growth [1] - There is a particular focus on leveraged strategies due to associated risks [1] - A discussion paper has been released to enhance the resilience of the repurchase market [1] Group 2: Global Economic Outlook - Global economic risks remain elevated, impacting overall market conditions [1] - The trend of a steepening yield curve is observed globally, not limited to the UK [1] - Quantitative tightening (QT) remains an open option for monetary policy [1] Group 3: Banking Sector Resilience - UK borrowers are noted for their resilience, indicating a stable borrowing environment [1] - The banking sector is positioned to provide necessary support amidst current economic challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury's increased issuance of short-term debt may be necessary to sustain the current bull market, as historical patterns indicate that high net issuance of medium to long-term debt correlates with stock market stagnation or decline [1][2][5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The net issuance of medium to long-term debt is approaching 100% of the fiscal deficit, with long-term debt net issuance accounting for 80% [2][5]. - The combination of high net issuance and slowing growth in total debt issuance is creating a challenging environment for the stock market, as the liquidity squeeze from medium to long-term debt issuance is undermining upward momentum [2][5]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical data shows that when net issuance of medium to long-term debt exceeds 85% of the fiscal deficit and total issuance growth declines, the S&P 500's performance over the next 1-12 months is significantly below average [5][7]. Group 3: Short-Term Debt as a Solution - In 2023, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen successfully revitalized the market by significantly increasing short-term debt issuance, which helped to draw down over $2 trillion in idle funds from the Federal Reserve's reverse repo (RRP) tool [10]. - Simon White suggests that to prevent a market collapse, the Treasury must reduce the net issuance of long-term debt and restart total issuance growth, implying a substantial increase in short-term debt issuance [11]. Group 4: Repo Market Dynamics - The relationship between short-term debt and the stock market is closely tied to the explosive growth of the repo market, which has become increasingly liquid and resembles a "near-money" asset [12][13]. - The growth in government debt issuance, particularly as repo collateral, has a positive correlation with stock market performance, but this relationship is more pronounced in total issuance rather than net issuance [13][14]. Group 5: Potential Challenges - Restarting short-term debt issuance may not be without consequences, as it could raise interest costs and inflation risks, complicating the Treasury's fiscal management [15]. - The current interest expenditure on U.S. debt has surpassed $1 trillion annually, and further shortening the average debt maturity could exacerbate inflationary pressures [15][17].