自由现金流折现

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博道基金张建胜: 创新药投资“一眼见胖瘦”
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-28 18:35
2025年港股市场表现亮眼,恒生指数与恒生科技指数领跑全球主要股票市场。博道基金基金经理张建胜 作为A+H两地布局的成长型基金经理,早在2024年一季度就提前布局、坚定加仓港股,他的投资逻辑 主要围绕估值性价比和结构变化展开。 张建胜在接受证券时报记者采访时表示,截至目前,港股的整体估值并不算贵,后续或仍将受益于国内 经济企稳回升和美联储降息。得益于前瞻性的布局,他成功捕捉了本轮创新药板块的上涨行情。张建胜 坦言,从价值低估到估值修复阶段的投资相对容易把握,他将此形象地比喻为"一眼见胖瘦";但要获取 企业持续成长带来的红利,则需跨越更高的研究壁垒。 在景气度方面,针对A股的TMT公司,景气度的权重则相对会高一点。 左侧买左侧卖 作为拥有绝对收益思维的成长风格基金经理,张建胜的投资方法论可概括为三大核心特点:第一,风格 偏成长,组合持仓一直是成长风格的3个方向,包括高端制造、TMT和泛消费;第二,均衡投资,不押 赛道,单一行业(申万一级)持仓不超过25%;第三,自下而上,适度逆向,看重估值。 张建胜坦言自己不太擅长周期风格,偏稳定类的比如过去三四年表现比较好的红利,持仓也没有超过 10%。他表示,与其他的成长风 ...
中证全指自由现金流指数,投资价值如何?|第399期直播回放
银行螺丝钉· 2025-08-08 14:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the significance and characteristics of the Free Cash Flow Index, its historical performance, and its current valuation compared to other indices like dividends and value indices [1][27][35] - The article outlines four common types of indices in the A-share market: broad-based indices, strategy indices, industry indices, and thematic indices [5][6][7][8][9] - It highlights six major strategy indices, including Free Cash Flow, which is closely related to the investment philosophies of Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham [10][11][12][13][14] Group 2 - The Free Cash Flow Index is defined as the cash available to a company after it has paid for its operating expenses and capital expenditures, emphasizing its importance in assessing a company's financial health [18][20] - The Free Cash Flow Rate is introduced as a key metric, calculated as Free Cash Flow divided by Enterprise Value, which helps in selecting stocks with the highest Free Cash Flow Rate [21][22][23] - The article differentiates the Free Cash Flow Index from dividend and value indices, noting that it includes companies with strong cash flows that may not pay high dividends, thus providing a broader investment opportunity [24][25][26] Group 3 - The article lists four significant Free Cash Flow indices currently in the market, including the FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus Index and the CSI 800 Free Cash Flow Index [27][28] - It provides detailed information about the CSI All Index Free Cash Flow Index, including its launch date, weighted methodology, and selection rules, which exclude financial and real estate stocks [29][30] - The industry distribution and top holdings of the CSI All Index Free Cash Flow Index are presented, showing a focus on sectors like industrials and materials, contrasting with the higher financial sector representation in dividend indices [32][34] Group 4 - Historical performance data indicates that the CSI All Index Free Cash Flow Index achieved an annualized return of 14.12% from December 31, 2013, to August 6, 2025, significantly outperforming the broader index [35][51] - The article discusses the valuation metrics of the Free Cash Flow Index, noting that it is essential to consider multiple factors when evaluating its performance [39][40] - The article concludes with insights on the potential of the Free Cash Flow Index as a valuable investment strategy, particularly in conjunction with dividend and value indices that have a higher financial sector exposure [54][55]
控制回撤属于股价思维
雪球· 2025-05-20 08:04
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investment from a long-term perspective, focusing on the intrinsic value of companies rather than short-term stock price fluctuations [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Investment should be viewed as owning a business, where the focus is on the cash flow generated over time rather than daily price changes [2]. - The essence of successful investing lies in optimizing the allocation of retained earnings, akin to nurturing a hen that lays eggs, where returns come from dividends and reinvestment [2]. - Evaluating a company's value involves discounting all future free cash flows, leading to a distinction between overvalued and undervalued stocks based on their lifecycle value [2]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Psychology - Investors face both explicit financial costs and implicit psychological costs, with anxiety and uncertainty being significant factors in decision-making [3]. - The article suggests that a clear investment strategy can simplify complex decisions, reducing the emotional burden associated with market fluctuations [3]. - The mindset of focusing on long-term growth rather than short-term gains can lead to better investment outcomes, as illustrated by the example of holding onto a stock until its potential is fully realized [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The "Snowball Three-Point Method" is introduced as a strategy for long-term investment and asset allocation, emphasizing diversification across assets, markets, and timing to enhance returns and mitigate risks [4].
自由现金流指数,投资价值如何?(精品课程)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-03-25 13:00
文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 有朋友问,自由现金流指数是什么,有啥特征?和红利、价值指数有哪些区别呢? 富时、国证、中证自由现金流指数有啥区别?当前估值如何呢? 针对大家的这些疑问,螺丝钉也通过直播课,进行了讲解。 长按识别下面二维码,添加 @课程小助手 微信,回复「 0311 」即可观看直播回放。 (提示:回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦~) 自由现金流指数:起源于巴菲特等投资大师 A股常见的指数,主要分为四类。 第一类是宽基指数。 通常是按照上市公司的市值规模来选股的,会包含各个行业的股票,覆盖范围很"宽"。 第二类是策略指数。 通常是在宽基指数的基础上,用了某一种投资策略,覆盖的行业也会比较广泛。 策略指数丰富了我们投资的选项,满足了很多投资者个性化的需求。 第三类是行业指数。 自由现金流指数,最终选择自由现金流率最高的一批股票。 自由现金流率这个指标,带有一些价值风格的特点。 和红利、价值指数的区别 也就是仅覆盖了某个行业的股票,例如消费、医药、金融等。最常见的行业指数,是11个一级行业。 每个一级行业,其实都是社会不可或缺的一部分,长期也是跟着社会发展的。 第四类是主题指数。 所包含的股票,跟某个 ...
直播回放:自由现金流指数,投资价值如何?
银行螺丝钉· 2025-03-11 13:49
有朋友问, 自由现金流指数是什么,有啥特征?和红利、价值指数有哪些区别呢? 富时、国证、中证自由现金流指数有啥区别?当前估值如何呢? 在今晚的直播课里,螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 一、【直播回放】 最近新出来了自由现金流指数。 长按识别下面二维码,添加 @课程小助手 微信,回复「 0311 」即可观看直播回放。 (提示:回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦~) 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. A股常见的四类指数 A股常见的指数,主要分为四类。 第一类是宽基指数。 通常是按照上市公司的市值规模来选股的,会包含各个行业的股票,覆盖范围很"宽"。 第二类是策略指数。 通常是在宽基指数的基础上,用了某一种投资策略,覆盖的行业也会比较广泛。 策略指数丰富了我们投资的选项,满足了很多投资者个性化的需求。 第三类是行业指数。 也就是仅覆盖了某个行业的股票,例如消费、医药、金融等。最常见的行业指数,是11个一级行业。 每个一级行业,其实都是社会不可或缺的一部分,长期也是跟着社会发展的。 第四类是主题指数。 所包含的股票,跟某个主题密切相关,例如科技、新能源、人工智能等。 主题指数,通常会横跨多个 ...