受政策等因素影响，白酒在二级市场上"表现不佳"。 截至6月26日收盘，白酒板块虽然"翻红"，但资金情绪不高。南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组注意 到，同花顺白酒指数26日收盘录得2825.34点涨0.1%，旗下成分股涨跌参半。 据了解，自今年新版《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》正式生效后，"公务接待不上酒"对白酒股产生 影响，在叠加白酒深度调整期行业增速整体放缓等因素后，白酒股最近一个月表现是"屡创新低"。 不过行业认为，目前多只白酒股处于近年来估值低位，这其中不乏"茅五洋泸汾古"等龙头，个股是否适 合"杀入"引起讨论。乐观来看，白酒股具有持续分红对冲股价波动收益等优势，但从基本面而言，目前 白酒正处于新一轮的转型期，何时走出泥潭有待观察。 "禁酒令"引发资金焦虑，白酒创阶段性新低 对于当下市场情况，有券商保持乐观态度。中金公司研报认为，当前白酒需求景气度已处历史底部，向 下风险或有限。从消费场景看，短期大众需求偏刚性，且同期低基数下，宴席需求或有望有所表现；中 期维度下，政策刺激有望刺激高端白酒需求企稳；全年白酒业绩在三四季度低基数支撑下或呈先抑后扬 的走势。 在5月19日"禁酒令"被提出之时，业界因"公务 ...

"4 月乘用车产量达 223 万辆，同比增长 11.2% ，但同期零售量仅 175 万辆，环比下降 9.4% 。其中，纯电车企库存从 2024 年初的 66 万辆，飙升至 2025 年 4 月的 85 万辆。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 中国汽车产业正经历一场史无前例的信任危机。 近日， 长城汽车董事长魏建军在接受媒体专访时 语出惊人： " 汽车产业里的 ' 恒大 ' 已经存在，只不过是没爆而已。 " 此言一出， 媒体纷纷猜测到底谁是 "车圈恒大"？ 投资者们带着满脑子的问号，开始用脚投票。于是，在接下来的交易日里， A 股和港股汽车股集体暴跌，比亚迪 等头部车企的 跌幅超 8 % ， 长 城跌幅超 5% ， 蔚小理等新势力 连带 宁德时代等供应链 企业 同步下挫。截至 5 月 27 日，恒生汽车指数较 日前 高点下跌 8.3% ，沪深 300 汽 车指数同期下跌 6.7% 。 点击图片▲立即收听 众所周知，恒大的崩塌，是 高杠杆扩张 与财务造假模式下的风险性爆发。 而汽车行业，部分企业同样陷入 "高负债、 烧钱换规模 " 的困局 —— 依赖融资输血维持运营，负债率飙升至 80% 以上却难盈 ...

点击上图 ▲立即加入 5年期和1年期LPR利率均下调10基点 5月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年5月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为 3.5%。5年期和1年期利率均下调10基点。为LPR年内首降。此前，作为政策利率的7天逆回购利率已经由1.5%下调为1.4%，本月LPR降息符合 市场预期。 中国四大行工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行均发布消息，下调人民币存款利率，最大降幅25个基点。其中，活期利率下调5个基点至 0.05%；定期整存整取三个月期、半年期、一年期、二年期均下调15个基点，分别为0.65%、0.85%、0.95%、1.05%；三年期和五年期均下调 25个基点，分别至1.25%和1.3%。（华尔街见闻） ｜点评｜ LPR利率正式下调后，大行存款利率马上跟随大幅调降，中小银行的存款利率调降预计也将很快到来。今年国内宏观数据整体表现较 有韧性，但外贸环境生变，内需修复缓慢，确实需要降息来继续强化经济回暖态势。不过，今年银行业整体的净息差在去年创历史新低的基础 上再次下滑，盈利空间再次被压缩。 本次LPR下调后，不少城市的房 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文称，2025年4月月末全国乘用车行业库存350万辆，较上月增加15万辆，较 2024年4月增12万辆，形成2025年行业库存持续拉升的特征。目前的政策启动带来厂商的总体乐观，春 节后的生产较高，厂家批发相对积极，行业库存重新建立。4月达到历年4月末的高点。随着5-7月的销 售逐步转入季节性淡季，未来三个月的销量逐步下行。因此根据2025年4月底的库存与未来销量综合预 估的现有库存支撑未来销售天数在57天，相对于2023年4月的55天、2024年4月的52天，今年4月末的总 体库存压力稍有增大。 ...