对于淀粉而言，近期淀粉-玉米价差先抑后扬，主要原因有二，其一是行业库存再度去化，其二是华北 降雨过后玉米品质担忧有所缓解，后期深加工玉米收购价或逐步向饲用玉米靠拢。在这种情况下，考虑 到目前处于相对低位，淀粉-玉米价差仍有走扩空间。 10月31日，玉米淀粉前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓15.70万手，空单持仓21.58万手，多 空比0.73。净持仓为-5.88万手，相较上日减少2454手。 机构观点 广州期货： 消息面 10月31日，大商所玉米淀粉期货仓单12504手，环比上个交易日持平。 调查数据显示，上周(2025年10月23日-10月29日)全国玉米加工总量为59.73万吨，较上周增加2.33万吨； 周度全国玉米淀粉产量为30.45万吨，较上周产量增加1.68万吨；周度开机率为58.86%,较上周增加 3.25%。 瑞达期货（002961）： 随着新季玉米上市量逐步增加，原料玉米供应压力加大，玉米淀粉成本支撑下滑。且木薯淀粉替代优势 仍存，继续挤压玉米淀粉市场需求。不过，行业开机持续低于往年同期，且近期企业签单走货较好，企 业库存略有下滑。截至10月29日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量112 ...

上周五，国内主流地区ADC12价格环比持平，市场成交仍偏谨慎，进口ADC12价格环比持平，下游逢 低采买。 机构观点 上周，原生铝合金开工率环比变动+1.03%，再生铝合金开工率环比变动+0%。 消息面 广州期货： 据统计，10月24日佛山、宁波、无锡三地再生铝合金锭日度社会库存共计48612吨，较前一交易日减少 21吨，较上周五（10月17日）减少411吨。 国投安信期货： 保太ADC12现货报价20700元。废铝货源偏紧，税率政策调整预期增加企业成本，不过行业库存和上期 所仓单处于高位水平，铸造铝合金继续跟随铝价波动，暂难有独立行情。 废铝原料库存持续去化，进口原料补充有限，面对冶炼端的高开工上游供应或成限制，成本端也提供较 强支撑，社库累增但速率明显放缓，企业成品库存去化，下游消费接近旺季尾声，新能源系消费保持正 增长但增速降低。铸造铝合金成本端仍有支撑，社库保持高位但累库速率放缓，短期价格上下有限，主 力合约价格参考运行区间20200-20800元/吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citi has downgraded the net profit forecast for Fuyao Glass (06865) for the years 2025 to 2027 by 55.3%, 39.8%, and 22.6% respectively, due to a slowdown in capacity expansion and a decrease in solar glass prices, while raising the target price from HKD 10 to HKD 12 and maintaining an outperform rating [1] Group 1 - The company's first-half performance aligns with earlier profit forecasts, with estimated unit net profit around RMB 0.5 per square meter [1] - The company's Vietnam plant may experience significant price premiums due to demand from the U.S. market [1] - Many industry players are beginning to conduct cold repairs and maintenance on their furnaces, delaying capacity expansion, which has contributed to a reduction in industry inventory to approximately 24 days by the end of August [1] Group 2 - The company expects the price of solar glass to increase by RMB 1.5 to 2 per square meter [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文称，2025年4月月末全国乘用车行业库存350万辆，较上月增加15万辆，较 2024年4月增12万辆，形成2025年行业库存持续拉升的特征。目前的政策启动带来厂商的总体乐观，春 节后的生产较高，厂家批发相对积极，行业库存重新建立。4月达到历年4月末的高点。随着5-7月的销 售逐步转入季节性淡季，未来三个月的销量逐步下行。因此根据2025年4月底的库存与未来销量综合预 估的现有库存支撑未来销售天数在57天，相对于2023年4月的55天、2024年4月的52天，今年4月末的总 体库存压力稍有增大。 ...