Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "volatile" [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17] Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the steel industry's steady - growth plan emphasizing crude steel reduction and the approaching military parade leading to production restrictions, the black building materials sector is still subject to short - term disturbances. After the military parade, with low inventory in the industrial chain and restocking demand, there is a driving force for price rebounds. However, weak terminal demand during the peak season may limit the upside space [1][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - The steel industry's steady - growth plan emphasizes crude steel reduction, and the approaching military parade restricts production. This has a negative impact on the demand for furnace materials, causing the prices of coal, coke, and ore to decline during the day, which in turn drags down steel prices. At night, the sector remains under pressure. After the military parade, steel mills are expected to resume production, and with the pre - National Day restocking demand, the sector may rise [1] 2. Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected [2][9] - Demand: Iron water production decreased slightly. As the military parade approaches, steel mills in Hebei will gradually enter maintenance, and iron water production is expected to decline, but the impact is limited. After the military parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2][9] - Inventory: This week, iron ore ports reduced inventory, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals are supportive, and the price is expected to fluctuate [2][9] - Scrap steel: The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. The pressure on finished product prices has led to low EAF profits, but resources are still tight. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][10] 3. Carbon Element - Coke: As the military parade approaches, coke production restrictions are stronger than those of steel mills. In the short term, the coke supply remains tight. Although price increases are difficult to implement, prices are supported before the military parade. After the military parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored [2][11] - Coking coal: Before the military parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the downward price space is expected to be limited [2][11] 4. Alloys - Manganese silicon: Currently, the inventory pressure of manganese silicon manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost side still supports prices in the short term. However, the future market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and prices are under significant downward pressure in the medium - to - long term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [2][16] - Ferrosilicon: The current inventory pressure of ferrosilicon manufacturers is not large, and the cost side still supports prices in the short term. However, the future market supply - demand relationship will become looser, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of power costs in major production areas [2][17] 5. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are high. After trading the delivery contradictions, the far - month contracts still offer a premium. In the medium - to - long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed. If prices return to fundamental trading, they are expected to decline with fluctuations [3][12][13] 6. Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After the decline in the futures market, spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline, driving capacity reduction [3][15] 7. Specific Product Analysis - Steel: The inventory is continuously accumulating, and the futures market is weak. Before and after the military parade, both supply and demand will be affected. In the short term, the futures market may continue to adjust weakly. After the military parade, the release of restocking demand during the peak season may support prices [8] - Iron ore: Shipments and arrivals increased, and port inventory decreased slightly. The demand is at a high level, and the supply and inventory are stable. The fundamentals are supportive, and the price is expected to fluctuate [9] - Scrap steel: The supply decreased, and the demand from both EAF and blast furnaces declined. The inventory decreased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10] - Coke: It is difficult to implement price increases, and the supply has tightened. Before the military parade, the price is supported, and after the military parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored [11] - Coking coal: The supply has tightened, and the market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to remain stable before the military parade [11] - Glass: The mid - stream sales pressure has squeezed the upstream production and sales. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [12][13] - Soda ash: The supply has been slightly disturbed, and the inventory has decreased rapidly. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and decline in the long term [15] - Manganese silicon: The black chain declined, and the futures price was weak. The short - term cost support remains, but the medium - to - long - term price has significant downward pressure [16] - Ferrosilicon: Market confidence is insufficient, and the futures price center has moved down. The short - term cost support remains, but the medium - to - long - term price center will tend to decline [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5]. - The mid - term outlooks for individual varieties such as iron ore, coke, etc. are also "oscillation" [7][8][10][11] Core Viewpoints - The black market has limited upside potential due to weak terminal demand expectations, but there is support from supply disruptions and downstream restocking needs. The market will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand performance [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Market Analysis - The black market's upward movement lacks drive, with the previous day's gains mostly erased and coking coal leading the decline. Supply constraints for furnace materials remain, and the downside space for prices is limited. Steel apparent demand is weak, and it is in the restocking window before the peak season. If there is topic - driven news, there is a small rebound space; otherwise, it will oscillate. Attention should be paid to future demand and furnace material supply recovery [1]. By Variety Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments decreased, 45 - port arrivals slightly declined, and total supply is relatively stable. Iron ore demand is expected to remain high as iron - making water production increases slightly. Port inventories decreased slightly. With limited negative driving factors in the fundamentals, prices are expected to oscillate [2][7][8]. Coking Coal - Some coal mines have resumed production, but some are still restricted by accidents and safety inspections. Import volumes are high but have recently declined briefly. Coking coal's short - term rigid demand has slightly decreased, and some mines have inventory accumulation, but overall inventory pressure is not significant. The short - term futures market still has support [2][12]. Coke - The eighth round of price increases has started, with regional differentiation. Some areas' coking production is restricted. Upstream coking enterprises' inventories are still low, and short - term supply and demand remain tight under simultaneous coking and steel production restrictions. Before the parade, the futures market still has support [11]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Before the parade, manufacturers' raw material restocking is nearly finished, port prices are loosening, and supply pressure is increasing. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship may become looser, and prices may face downward pressure [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled, and there are concerns in the fundamentals [2]. Glass - After the futures price decline, the spot market sentiment has cooled. Supply is expected to remain stable, and there is some inventory accumulation upstream. Cost support has strengthened due to rising coal prices, but the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely [2][13]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, spot trading volume has increased slightly. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2][5][15]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has decreased, and the fundamentals' contradictions are not prominent. Due to the pressure on finished product prices, electric furnace profits are low, but resources are still tight, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations and trading suggestions for various commodities including methanol, gold, iron ore, etc., analyzing their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market factors [1][2][4] Summaries by Commodity Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2297 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 83.76%, up 1.36%; downstream total capacity utilization rate is 72.81%, up 1.04% weekly. The port inventory and production enterprise inventory are increasing. It is expected to run in a short - term shock, with support at 2410. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long [1] Gold - Tariff disturbances still exist. After Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, the market started the interest - rate cut expectation. The short - term gold has a rebound demand, may be shock - bullish in the short - term and bearish in the medium - term. Pay attention to the seesaw effect between the US dollar and gold [2] Iron Ore - The inventory of 45 ports is 13845.20 tons, up 25.93 tons; the daily dispatch volume is 325.74 tons, down 8.93 tons. The current price may run in a shock adjustment. Focus on the implementation of environmental protection restrictions in the north [4] Coke - Mainstream coke enterprises launched the 8th price increase. Supply has increased slightly but is limited by high costs. Demand is strong as steel mills' profits are good. After the price increase, production will increase slightly. With the upcoming parade production restrictions, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent in the short - term, and the futures price is still supported [4] Rebar - In the high - temperature and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is slow, but the temporary production restriction expectation and the "double - coke" futures increase boost the market sentiment. The steel price may run in a shock in the short - term [5] Soda Ash - The mainstream price is 1297 yuan/ton, showing a weak shock. The weekly output is 77.14 tons, up 1.33%; the manufacturer's inventory is up 0.9%. The domestic soda ash market is weak and volatile. It is expected to run in a shock, with support at 1300. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Polypropylene - The mainstream price is 7010 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; the capacity utilization rate is 80.46%, up 1.15%; the downstream average start - up rate is 49.53%, up 0.18 percentage points weekly. The commercial inventory is 80.06 tons, down 2.68 tons. It is expected to run in a shock, with support at 7065. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [7] Live Pigs - The price is stable and weak. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, but there is support from storage sentiment and school - starting stockpiling. Short - term long positions can be held, with support at 13700 for the LH2511 contract. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [9] Palm Oil - Malaysia's exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9%. The inventory in key domestic areas decreased by 5.70% weekly. The domestic demand is restricted by the soybean - palm oil price difference. It is expected to run in a shock in the short - term [10] Soybeans - The port inventory is 889.8 tons, down 2.80 tons weekly. The domestic soybean price is fluctuating slightly and is weak and stable in the short - term due to the upcoming new - bean supply increase and limited demand [10] Crude Oil - India's imports in July decreased by 8.7%. There are talks about the Russia - Ukraine issue and the Iran nuclear issue. It may increase production in the fourth quarter. The price has rebounded. It is recommended to do short - term long for now [11] Rubber - The supply in Thailand and domestic areas is affected by rain, while that in Cote d'Ivoire is normal. The demand from the domestic tire industry is weak. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long cautiously around 15500 [12] Asphalt - Supply is shrinking, with the output down 4 tons to 54.8 tons and the capacity utilization rate down 2.2 percentage points to 30.7%. Demand is weak. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy and not to chase high in the short - term [13] Short - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank's continuous liquidity injection is beneficial to short - term bonds. The stock market has limited upward momentum in the short - term, which is beneficial to the bond market. It is recommended to do intraday operations on short - term bonds and short long - term bonds [13] Silver - The issue of Trump removing Cook from the Federal Reserve needs continuous observation. The Fed's independence is challenged. After Powell's speech, the market has an interest - rate cut expectation. The silver price is shock - bullish [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] - The mid - term outlooks for specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are also "oscillation" [7][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the transition between the off - season and peak season approaches, market concerns about the terminal demand for steel are rising. Although the seventh round of price increases for coke has started, the futures prices of coal and coke are falling. The production restriction before major events is slightly less than expected, and inventory pressure at the downstream of steel is emerging. The price is expected to oscillate within the current range in the near term [1][2] - The trading focus of the black building materials market is gradually shifting from the expectation of anti - involution on the supply side to the actual supply - demand situation. The weak reality is suppressing prices, and future attention should be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element (Iron Ore) - **Supply**: Overseas mines' shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly rebounded, slightly higher than last year's level. The total supply is relatively stable, and the sustainability of the shipment increase needs attention [2][7] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased slightly, but is still at a high level year - on - year. Pig iron production increased slightly, and the possibility of short - term production cuts by steel enterprises due to profit reasons is small. Attention should be paid to the production restriction policy in the second half of the month [2][7] - **Inventory**: Iron ore ports are accumulating inventory, the number of stranded ships is decreasing, steel enterprises are slightly replenishing inventory, and the total inventory is slightly accumulating. The fundamental bearish drivers are limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2][7] 3.2 Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the production areas have resumed production, but some mines' production is still restricted due to accidents and other factors. Short - term supply disturbances will continue due to over - production verification and the "276 - working - day" policy. The short - term impact of the adjustment of the error threshold between the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has basically dissipated, and the average daily customs clearance still exceeds 1,000 vehicles [2][12] - **Demand**: The seventh round of price increases for coke has started, profits are gradually recovering, production is slightly increasing, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Downstream enterprises are mainly purchasing on demand, spot trading is weakening, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but overall, there is no obvious inventory pressure due to a large number of pre - sold orders [2][12] - **Outlook**: Supply disturbances will continue, and there is unlikely to be a significant increase in supply before the parade. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term futures market still has support [2][12] Coke - **Supply**: After the sixth round of price increases was implemented, the overall profit of coke enterprises turned positive, production started to improve, and production increased slightly. However, some coke enterprises are still in a loss state, and the seventh round of price increases has started [11] - **Demand**: Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. Pig iron production increased slightly month - on - month. Under the weakening of the futures market, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders has decreased. Steel mills' inventory replenishment before the parade was active, and the arrival of goods has improved [11] - **Outlook**: As the parade approaches, there are continuous rumors of production restrictions for coke. The degree of production restriction for coke enterprises may be greater than that of steel mills. The short - term supply of coke will remain tight, and it will take time for the seventh round of price increases to be implemented. Attention should be paid to the impact of possible parade - related production restriction policies on the production and transportation of coke and steel enterprises [11] 3.3 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - **Cost**: Manganese silicon manufacturers pre - purchased raw material inventory before the parade, and the recent inventory replenishment is coming to an end. The trading atmosphere at ports is cooling down. With the increase in arrivals and rising supply pressure, the port ore price has started to decline from its high level [2][16] - **Supply - Demand**: Steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel is still at a high level. The resumption of production by manufacturers is continuing in an environment of profit recovery. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser, and attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [2][16] - **Outlook**: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support. However, supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and there may be downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long term [16] Ferrosilicon - **Supply**: Industry profits have improved, and manufacturers' enthusiasm for resuming production has increased, leading to a gradual increase in ferrosilicon production. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [17] - **Demand**: Steel production remains high, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking is still resilient. In the metal magnesium sector, magnesium manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices, but downstream enterprises are trying to push down prices, and the magnesium ingot price remains stable overall [17] - **Outlook**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in the future, and there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals in the medium - to - long term. The upside potential of the price is not optimistic, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and adjustments in electricity costs [17] 3.4 Glass - **Supply**: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory is slightly accumulating, and there are many market sentiment disturbances [2][13] - **Demand**: In the off - season, demand is declining. Although the number of deep - processing orders has increased month - on - month, the number of days of raw glass inventory has increased significantly to a high for the year, indicating speculative purchasing by downstream enterprises. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down, and the sales of intermediate and upstream products have declined significantly [13] - **Outlook**: The actual demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are relatively high. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward when returning to fundamental trading [13] 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply situation has not changed. Production is at a high level, and supply pressure persists. There is no short - term disturbance to production, and production is expected to continue to increase [15] - **Demand**: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, and the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out, and the demand for heavy soda ash is flat. The downstream procurement of light soda ash is flat, but the overall inventory replenishment sentiment of downstream enterprises is weak, and they resist high prices [15] - **Outlook**: The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. After the increase in the futures market, spot trading is still weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [15] 3.6 Steel - **Supply**: Last week, steel mills had both resumption and maintenance of production, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed little. There is a large amount of rebar delivery resources arriving at ports, and the inventory of rebar has increased significantly. The inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coil has slowed down, and the inventories of medium - thick plate and cold - rolled coil have increased. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has declined, and inventory is accumulating, showing off - season characteristics [7] - **Demand**: The speculative sentiment is poor, and the overall spot trading of steel is weak. The export orders for hot - rolled coil have improved, and domestic demand has some resilience [7] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening marginally in the off - season. Both supply and demand will be affected around the parade. The blast furnace production restriction depends on air quality, and there may be shutdowns of construction sites and factories in Beijing and surrounding areas. The futures market may fluctuate more violently. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and future attention should be paid to steel mill production restriction and terminal demand [7] 3.7 Scrap Steel - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume of scrap steel has increased slightly month - on - month, with narrow fluctuations during the week [9] - **Demand**: The profit of electric arc furnaces is acceptable, and daily consumption has increased to a new high for the year. In the blast furnace sector, pig iron production has increased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also increased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly [9] - **Inventory**: The inventory in factories has decreased slightly, and the number of available inventory days has dropped to a relatively low level [9] - **Outlook**: The supply of scrap steel is stable, and demand is strong. The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rebar, Hot-rolled Coil, Coke, Coking Coal, Silicomanganese [1] - **Short-term Bullish Participation**: Iron Ore [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Ferrosilicon [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: High iron - water production due to good profits, weak demand, supply - side contraction expectations from un - implemented parade - related production restrictions, and raw material disturbances lead to expected mid - term range fluctuations [1][4]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Production and apparent consumption decline, inventory slightly increases, export profit drops, and production restrictions during the parade support the market [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Slight increase in iron - water production, decrease in foreign ore arrivals and shipments, increase in port and steel mill inventories, and restocking by steel mills make the ore price firm [1][8]. - **Coke**: Six rounds of spot price increases, improved coking enterprise profits, possible supply contraction from parade - related production restrictions, mid - term strength supported by news, but short - term possible correction due to high position and trading restrictions [1][11]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is flat, Mongolian coal imports increase, stable raw material demand, mid - term strength supported by production restriction news, but short - term market sentiment may be affected by trading restrictions [1][14]. - **Silicomanganese**: No prominent supply - demand contradiction, increased enterprise operating rate, concentrated demand release, and firm port ore prices support the alloy price [1][17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Weaker fundamentals, increased factory inventory, and high delivery inventory. The price may face correction pressure in the short - term and be under pressure in the medium - term [1][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Market Characteristics**: Obvious off - season features, range fluctuations [3]. - **Rebar**: High - level iron - water production, weak demand, mid - term range fluctuations, short - term volatile market [1][4][5]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Stable fundamentals, reduced export profit, short - term volatile market [1][4][5]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil show different degrees of decline, and there are corresponding changes in basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' restocking makes the ore price firm [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Slight increase in iron - water production, decrease in foreign ore arrivals and shipments, increase in port and steel mill inventories [1][8]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices of iron ore decline, and there are changes in spreads, basis, and other indicators [6]. 3.3 Coke - **Market Situation**: Policy disturbances, short - term possible fluctuations [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Six rounds of spot price increases, improved coking enterprise profits, possible supply contraction, relatively balanced supply - demand, and stable production and inventory [1][11]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices decline, spot prices have mixed changes, and there are corresponding changes in basis, spreads, and other data [10]. 3.4 Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: Policy disturbances, short - term possible fluctuations [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, stable raw material demand, mid - term strength supported by production restriction news, but short - term market sentiment affected by trading restrictions [1][14]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices decline, spot prices remain stable, and there are changes in basis, spreads, and other indicators [13]. 3.5 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Situation**: No fundamental drivers, follow market sentiment [16]. - **Silicomanganese**: Improved enterprise operating rate, concentrated demand release, and firm port ore prices support the price [1][17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Increased factory inventory, high delivery inventory, short - term correction pressure, and medium - term price under pressure [1][18]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices decline, spot prices are relatively stable, and there are changes in basis, spreads, and other data [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating for the black commodity sector. However, it provides individual outlooks for each commodity: - Steel: Expected to be volatile and moderately strong [1] - Iron ore: Expected to be volatile [1] - Coking coal: Expected to be volatile and moderately strong [1] - Coke: Expected to be volatile and moderately strong [1] - Manganese silicon: Expected to be volatile and slightly strong [3] - Ferrosilicon: Expected to be volatile and slightly strong [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and trends of various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It considers factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, price movements, and market sentiment to provide short - term outlooks for each commodity. For example, steel exports are high, which eases domestic supply pressure, while the market has expectations for anti - over - competition policies and potential production restrictions due to the approaching parade [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3250 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (1.15%) from the previous trading day. Spot prices also increased slightly, and trading volume rebounded. National building material and hot - rolled coil inventories increased. However, high steel exports and market expectations for policies and production restrictions are likely to support the short - term upward trend of the rebar futures [1]. - **Iron ore**: The futures price of the main contract i2509 rose to 798 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (1%) from the previous day. Australian shipments decreased, while Brazilian shipments increased. Iron ore demand and inventory levels also changed. Considering the market's focus on parade - related production restrictions, the price is expected to be volatile in the short term [1]. - **Coking coal**: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2601 contract closing at 1256 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton (2.36%). Some coal mines in Shanxi are controlling production, and coke prices are rising for the sixth time, which boosts the demand for coking coal. The short - term outlook is volatile and moderately strong [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price rose, with the 2601 contract closing at 1759.5 yuan/ton, up 25.5 yuan/ton (1.47%). Rising coking coal prices have increased production costs, and coke prices are rising to transfer the cost pressure. With the approaching parade, market sentiment is positive, and the short - term outlook is volatile and moderately strong [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price trended stronger, with the main contract closing at 6100 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. Supply is increasing, and demand is also picking up during the steel procurement season. The short - term outlook is volatile and slightly strong [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price trended stronger, with the main contract closing at 5830 yuan/ton, up 1.15%. Cost support has increased, and demand has also shown a slight increase. The short - term outlook is volatile and slightly strong [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, along with their环比 changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16] - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon over different time periods [19][20][22][24] - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [28][32][33][34][36][37][39] - **3.3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [42][44][46] - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: There are charts showing the rebar's main contract's disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit from 2020 to 2025 [47][51] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel Products**: The fundamentals and macro - sentiment resonate, and steel prices are expected to be slightly stronger in consolidation. Recently, the prices fluctuate greatly, and it is advisable to try long positions on dips. Pay attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamental data of coking coal has improved. Although the short - term price fluctuates sharply, the overall trend is strong. Focus on changes in coal production data, the sustainability of high daily iron - water production in steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [10]. - **Ferroalloys**: In the short term, the demand for alloys is still supported, but the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose, and the impact of inventory is neutral to weak. The price is expected to follow the market trend, and the fluctuation range may increase. With the start of a new round of steel procurement, pay attention to the price guidance. Monitor the evolution of tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From August 1 to August 8, 2025, most futures and spot prices of black products increased. For example, the futures price of coking coal (JM2601) rose 12.31% from 1092.5 to 1227, and the spot price of coking coal (Jiexiu medium - sulfur primary coking coal ex - factory price) rose 4.17% from 1200 to 1250. Only the spot price of ferrosilicon decreased by 0.91% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Steel Products**: The fundamentals are average, and the weak demand and rainy season affect the construction, which is difficult to improve in the short term. The macro - sentiment has cooled but still stimulates the market. With the approaching parade, there are occasional news of production restrictions in the north. The short - term market volatility increases, and it is advisable to try long positions on dips before the parade [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last week, coking coal futures prices fluctuated strongly, and coke enterprises started the 6th round of price hikes. In terms of fundamentals, coal production is expected to have limited growth in the short term, and the structural inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly relieved. The raw material replenishment of coking plants and steel mills has slowed down, and the production of steel mills remains at a relatively high level, but the production restrictions in Tangshan affect the raw material demand [10]. - **Ferroalloys**: The macro - sentiment has cooled, and the market is in a policy window period. The terminal demand is in the off - season, but relevant policies support the price. The black metal market is affected by weak fundamentals and supply - side disturbances. The supply and demand pattern of ferroalloys is relatively loose, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared with the same period last year. The cost of ferromanganese has some support, while the cost of ferrosilicon has no obvious change. It is expected that the price will follow the market trend, and the new round of steel procurement price guidance should be noted [11]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 221.18 million tons, the apparent demand was 210.79 million tons, the social inventory was 388.48 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 10.39 million tons. The long - process output was 190.54 million tons, and the short - process output was 30.64 million tons. The basis in Shanghai and Beijing showed different trends [13][18][21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Last week, the output was 314.89 million tons, the apparent demand was 306.21 million tons, the social inventory was 278.75 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 8.68 million tons. The basis in Shanghai showed an upward trend [25][30]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke Inventory**: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 907.35 million tons, a decrease of 8.05 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of independent coke enterprises, 247 steel mills, and 4 ports showed different changes [48]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2486.02 million tons, a decrease of 7.27 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of each part showed different trends [54]. - **Other Data**: The average profit per ton of independent coke enterprises was - 16 yuan, the capacity utilization rate was 74%, and the daily coke output was 65.1 million tons. The daily output of clean coal in 523 coking coal mines was 75.5 million tons, and the daily output of hot metal in 247 steel mills was 240.32 million tons. The ratios of coke to coking coal futures prices and the basis and spreads of coke and coking coal showed different changes [63][64][67]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: The price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased slightly, the price of ferromanganese increased, and the price of ferrosilicon decreased [79]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of manganese ore decreased, and the inventory of ferromanganese decreased slightly while the inventory of ferrosilicon increased. The average available days of inventory for both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon in July decreased compared with the previous month and the same period last year [81][93][96]. - **Output and Demand**: The output of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon increased last week, and the demand for both in five major steel products also increased. The monthly output of manganese ore imports, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon showed different trends [83][87][89]. - **Steel Mill Procurement Prices**: The procurement prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon by Hebei Iron and Steel and other steel mills showed different changes in July [102].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term outlook is weakly volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the accumulation of real - world contradictions, causing steel prices to face adjustment pressure [2]. - The steel price is expected to continue the volatile adjustment trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term is weakly volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weakly volatile. The reference view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the accumulation of real - world contradictions and steel prices under adjustment pressure. Also, there are explanations for time - period definitions and calculation methods of price changes [2]. Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, spot prices remained stable with average trading volume. The implementation of production restrictions in Tangshan had less - than - expected impact. The supply and demand of rebar changed little, with an increase in the weekly output of rebar due to the resumption of production by construction steel mills and good profit per ton, increasing supply pressure. Although rebar demand improved with an increase in high - frequency indicators, the downstream industry has not improved, and the sustainability of the demand improvement during the off - season is questionable. With the implementation of parade - related production restrictions, supply disturbances are weakening. In the situation of both increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not substantially improved, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the cost support brought by the strong performance of coking coal and coke [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and trends of various black commodities on August 5, 2025, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It provides short - term price trend predictions for each commodity based on factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures market had a narrow - range shock. The inventory increased, indicating pressure on the supply - demand fundamentals. However, expectations of anti - involution policies and rumors of military parade production restrictions boosted market sentiment. It is expected that the rebar futures market will have a narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract rose. The supply decreased as Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and the demand weakened with a drop in molten iron production. Considering the "anti - involution" sentiment and military parade production restrictions, it is expected that the iron ore price will show an oscillatory consolidation trend in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. The upstream coal mine inventory decreased, and the downstream was replenishing stocks. After the fifth round of coke price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved, but the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced resources declined. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose. After the fifth round of price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved, and the production remained stable. The cost pressure eased, and the rigid demand from steel mills continued. It is expected that the coke futures market will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The ferromanganese silicon futures price had a narrow - range shock. The "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, and the market returned to fundamental trading. The production increased in July, while the demand from steel mills was weak. Considering the tight spot market, it is expected that the ferromanganese silicon price will oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated weakly. The "anti - involution" driver cooled down, and the supply increased in July. The demand from the steel industry was weak, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and month - on - month changes of contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [4]. - **Basis**: It shows the latest values and month - on - month changes of the basis for different contracts of each commodity [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The latest spot prices and their month - on - month changes in different regions for each commodity are presented [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on profits (such as rebar futures trading profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) of black commodities is provided [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 are presented, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of the main contracts of various black commodities over different periods are shown, helping to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different - period contracts of various black commodities are provided, which are useful for analyzing price differences between different contract months [26][28][30][33][35][36][39]. - **Cross - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts of cross - commodity spreads of black commodities are presented, such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., to analyze the relative price relationships between different commodities [41][43][44]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts of the futures trading profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar are provided to show the profit situation of the rebar industry over time [46][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, professional backgrounds, work experience, and relevant qualifications [52][53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each variety: - **Thread Steel**: Hold [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Hold [1] - **Iron Ore**: Reduce Short Positions [1] - **Coke**: Hold [1] - **Coking Coal**: Hold [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously Bullish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously Bullish [1] Core Views - **Steel**: Market sentiment has cooled, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. For thread steel, production and apparent demand have both increased month - on - month, and total inventory has decreased slightly, with supply and demand relatively balanced. For hot rolled coil, production and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly increased, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited contradictions [1][3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, molten iron production has declined, supply - side shipments have increased, and arrivals have decreased due to typhoons, with expected subsequent increases in arrivals. Both port and steel mill inventories have increased. The market sentiment has turned cautious after the coking coal position limit, and attention should be paid to policy announcements [1][6]. - **Coke**: Spot coke price increases have lagged behind futures since the previous low, the fourth round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are still expectations of further increases. Coke enterprises' profits are still in a loss state, and production enthusiasm is average. Coke supply and demand are generally relatively balanced, and inventory is relatively stable. Market sentiment may fluctuate due to policy expectations for later meetings [1][8][10]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coking coal production has generally increased recently, and the absolute level is similar to the same period last year. Upstream inventory has transferred to downstream, and total inventory is stable. The impact of the energy bureau's inspection of over - production on output may be limited. There is still a possibility of capital - game market conditions, and market sentiment may fluctuate due to later meetings and policy expectations [1][12][14]. - **Ferroalloys**: For silicomanganese, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased in some production areas due to profit restoration. Manganese ore shipments and arrivals have continued to decline, mainly from South Africa, and the decline in port clearance volume has slowed, with expected low - level port inventory. The current port ore price is firm, providing strong short - term support for alloy prices. For ferrosilicon, last week's fundamentals showed both supply and demand increases, the factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level for the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure [1][16][18]. Summary by Variety Thread Steel - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3353, 3399, and 3294 respectively, with changes of 29, 88, and 20. Spot prices in different regions (Tangshan, Shanghai, etc.) range from 3150 to 3480, with price changes from - 20 to 60. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][2]. - **Fundamentals**: Production and apparent demand have both increased month - on - month, total inventory has decreased slightly, and molten iron production has slightly declined but remains at a high level [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term market has entered high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to hold and pay attention to whether the end - of - month important meeting reiterates anti - involution policies, with a price range of [3340, 3400] [1][5]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3507, 3500, and 3503 respectively, with changes of 98, 81, and 106. Spot prices in different regions (Tianjin, Shanghai, etc.) range from 3420 to 3590, with price changes from 40 to 70. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][2]. - **Fundamentals**: Production and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly increased, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited contradictions [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is currently trading around factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production - restriction policies. The production - restriction news has boosted market expectations again, and the market has entered a high - level operation. It is advisable to hold and pay attention to the meeting results, with a price range of [3500, 3580] [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The report does not provide detailed price information but gives a price range of [790, 830] [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Molten iron production has declined, supply - side shipments have increased, and arrivals have decreased due to typhoons, with expected subsequent increases in arrivals. Both port and steel mill inventories have increased [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Reduce short positions and pay attention to policy announcements [1][7]. Coke - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (January, May, September) are 1690.5, 1746.5, and 1633.0 respectively, with price changes of 40.0, 69.5, and 24.5. Spot prices in different regions (Lüliang, Rizhao, etc.) range from 1180 to 1420, with price changes from - 10 to 50. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][9]. - **Fundamentals**: Spot coke price increases have lagged behind futures since the previous low, the fourth round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are still expectations of further increases. Coke enterprises' profits are still in a loss state, and production enthusiasm is average. Coke supply and demand are generally relatively balanced, and inventory is relatively stable [1][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is advisable to hold in the short term, with a price range of [1640, 1730] [1][11]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (January, May, September) are 1214.5, 1241.0, and 1120.5 respectively, with price changes of 34.5, 56.5, and 20.0. Spot prices in different regions (Lüliang, Gujiao, etc.) range from 1150 to 1480, with price changes from - 93 to 0. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][13]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic coking coal production has generally increased recently, and the absolute level is similar to the same period last year. Upstream inventory has transferred to downstream, and total inventory is stable. The impact of the energy bureau's inspection of over - production on output may be limited [1][14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is advisable to hold in the short term, with a price range of [1120, 1174.5] [1][15]. Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 6286, 6306, and 6212 respectively, with price changes of 184, 176, and 184. Spot prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, etc.) range from 5800 to 5850, with price changes from 100 to 150. Basis, spreads, and other data also show different values and changes [1][17]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased in some production areas due to profit restoration. Manganese ore shipments and arrivals have continued to decline, mainly from South Africa, and the decline in port clearance volume has slowed, with expected low - level port inventory. The current port ore price is firm, providing strong short - term support for alloy prices [1][18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Market sentiment has cooled. Continue to pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies and the performance of coking coal, with an expected price range of [6070, 6356] [1][19]. Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 6216, 6230, and 6110 respectively, with price changes of 268, 240, and 270. Spot prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, etc.) range from 5600 to 5650, with price changes from 0 to 50. Basis, spreads, and other data also show different values and changes [1][17]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week's fundamentals showed both supply and demand increases, the factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level for the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure [1][18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, market sentiment has cooled. Continue to pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies and the performance of coking coal. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may still be under pressure, with a price range of [5950, 6270] [1][19].