黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 8 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3250 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 震荡偏强 | | | 上涨 37 元/吨，涨幅 1.15%，持仓增加 515 手。现货价格小幅上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | | | | 上涨 40 元/吨至 3120 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 30 元/吨至 3330 元/吨，全国建材成交量 12.23 | | | | 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存增加 1.45%至 417.21 万吨，热卷库存增加 2.42%至 190.68 万吨，库 | | | | 存继续全面增加，国内钢材市场供需有所趋弱。不过钢材出口维持高位，在一定程度上缓解了国内供应压 | | | | 力。据海关数据，2025 年 7 月中国出口钢材 983.6 万吨，较上月增加 15.8 万吨，环比增长 1.6%；1-7 月 | | | | 累计出口钢材 6798.3 万吨，同比增长 11.4%。目 ...

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2025.8.11 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、煤焦、铁合金） 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025.8.8 | | 2025.8.1 | | 2025.8.8 | 2025.8.1 | 价格变动 | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2510 | 3213 | 3203 | 0.31% 10 | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3340 | 3360 | -20 | -0.60% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2510 | 3428 | 3401 | 27 0.79% | Q235B:5.75*1500*C:市场价:上海 | 3450 | 3410 | 40 | 1.17% | | 铁矿石 | 12509 | 790 | 783 | 7 0.89% | 日照港PB粉 | 770 | 768 | 2 | 0.26% | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 周末现货价格持稳为主，成交表现一般，且唐山限产落地，影响力度不及预期，而螺纹钢供需 变化不大，建筑钢厂复产，螺纹钢周产量大幅回升，且品种吨钢利润较好，供应压力在增。与此同 时，螺纹钢需求有所改善，高频指标环比增加，但下游行业并未好转，淡季需求改善持续性存疑。 目前来看，阅兵限产兑现，供应扰动趋弱，且供需双增局面下螺纹钢基本面并无实质性好转，淡季 钢价承压运行，相对利好则是双焦强势带来成本提振，预计钢价延续震荡调整态势，关注钢厂生产 情况。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 现实矛盾累积，钢价承压调整 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and trends of various black commodities on August 5, 2025, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It provides short - term price trend predictions for each commodity based on factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures market had a narrow - range shock. The inventory increased, indicating pressure on the supply - demand fundamentals. However, expectations of anti - involution policies and rumors of military parade production restrictions boosted market sentiment. It is expected that the rebar futures market will have a narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract rose. The supply decreased as Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and the demand weakened with a drop in molten iron production. Considering the "anti - involution" sentiment and military parade production restrictions, it is expected that the iron ore price will show an oscillatory consolidation trend in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. The upstream coal mine inventory decreased, and the downstream was replenishing stocks. After the fifth round of coke price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved, but the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced resources declined. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose. After the fifth round of price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved, and the production remained stable. The cost pressure eased, and the rigid demand from steel mills continued. It is expected that the coke futures market will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The ferromanganese silicon futures price had a narrow - range shock. The "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, and the market returned to fundamental trading. The production increased in July, while the demand from steel mills was weak. Considering the tight spot market, it is expected that the ferromanganese silicon price will oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated weakly. The "anti - involution" driver cooled down, and the supply increased in July. The demand from the steel industry was weak, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and month - on - month changes of contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [4]. - **Basis**: It shows the latest values and month - on - month changes of the basis for different contracts of each commodity [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The latest spot prices and their month - on - month changes in different regions for each commodity are presented [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on profits (such as rebar futures trading profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) of black commodities is provided [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 are presented, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of the main contracts of various black commodities over different periods are shown, helping to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different - period contracts of various black commodities are provided, which are useful for analyzing price differences between different contract months [26][28][30][33][35][36][39]. - **Cross - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts of cross - commodity spreads of black commodities are presented, such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., to analyze the relative price relationships between different commodities [41][43][44]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts of the futures trading profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar are provided to show the profit situation of the rebar industry over time [46][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, professional backgrounds, work experience, and relevant qualifications [52][53].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 观望 | 阅兵期间限产消息再次刺激市场，同时市场对后期会议存在一定期待，提 | | | | 振市场预期。供需方面，螺纹产量表需环比均回升，总库存小幅下降，供 | | | | 需相对平衡。铁水产量小幅回落，绝对水平仍高。行情短期进入高位波动， | | | | 观望为宜，关注月底重要会议是否重申反内卷政策。【3340，3400】 | | | 观望 | 热卷产量、表需小幅下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。近期 | | 热卷 | | 市场围绕宏观政策、反内卷、行业限产政策等因素进行交易，限产消息再 | | | | 次提振市场预期，行情进入高位运行，关注会议结果，观望为宜。【3500， | | | | 3580】 | | 铁矿石 | 空单减持 | 基本面看，铁水产量转降，供给端发货增到货受台风影响下降，后续发到 | | | | 货预计有增量。港口钢厂库存双增。盘面看，焦煤限仓后大幅下跌，市场 | | | | 情绪转为谨慎，关注政策出台情况。【790,830】 | | 焦炭 | 观望 | 焦炭现货自前期低点 ...