2026年度策略： 迎接破晓时刻 证券研究报告 | 年度策略 2026 01 01 年 月 日 分析师 杨义韬 分析师 尹乐川 执业证书编号：S0680522080002 执业证书编号：S0680523110002 邮箱：yangyitao@gszq.com 邮箱：yinlechuan@gszq.com 打造极致专业与效率 化工几乎每年都有优异的投资机会 | 年份 | 驱动因素 | 代表公司及区间最高涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2010 | 景气周期：化纤、制冷剂 | 华西股份（125%、涤纶短纤）、华峰化学（99%、氨纶）、东岳集团（456%、制冷剂）、 | | | | 巨化股份（245%，制冷剂） | | 2011 | 景气周期：制冷剂、钛白粉 | 巨化股份（182%，制冷剂）、东岳集团（128%，制冷剂）、安纳达（181%，钛白粉） | | 2012 | 景气周期：草甘膦、TDI | 江山股份（178%，草甘膦）、沧州大化（192%，TDI） | | 2013 | 景气周期：染料 | 闰土股份（218%，染料）、安诺其（136%，染料）、浙江龙盛（139%，染料） | | 20 ...

触觉传感成"硬门槛" 12月4日，人形机器人概念股再度点燃A股。恒而达触及20cm涨停，三花智控涨超7%，安培龙、豪恩汽 电、浙江荣泰、五洲新春跟涨。 多只标的大涨背后，是资本市场对"人形机器人进入产线"这一进程的重新定价。行业的叙事也在悄然发 生变化，从前几年"谁翻跟头更好看""谁的模型跑得更丝滑"，逐渐过渡到谁更能经得住工厂真实环境的 折腾。 01 整机快跑，供应链掉链 触觉传感成"硬门槛" 尽管人形机器人赛道在资本市场热度居高不下，但在整机厂真正冲向量产的时候，供应链的成熟度明显 落后。 头部企业之间的竞争已经从示范性动作比拼转向对工业场景的真正渗透。在消费电子组装、包装、测 试、工位间转运等场景中，仍有大量岗位依赖人工，且节奏重复、强度高、离职率大，企业迫切需 要"能真正干活"的机器人。 然而现实是，机器人在Demo环境中"跳舞、倒立、攀爬"毫不费劲，但一旦来到工厂的油渍、灰尘、潮 湿、高频碰撞的真实环境里，稳定性就会急速下滑。 智元机器人合伙人姚卯青直言，"翻跟头体现了整个行业的技术进步，但在大规模生产之下，大家更关 心技术能带来多少价值。"他透露，整机厂如今普遍要派研发人员常驻供应商产线，"一行一 ...

以下文章来源于高工人形机器人 ，作者Levi. 高工人形机器人 . 高工机器人旗下聚焦具身智能、人形机器人赛道平台，覆盖计算、感知、控制、执行、本体核心供应 链，提供品牌传播策划、行业研究咨询服务，洞察行业变革，挖掘未来之星 想象一下：当你握住一只玻璃杯，会本能地调整力道，既不让它滑落也不至于捏得太紧；而捏起一片薯 片时，则会更加轻柔克制，避免薯片碎成残渣。这种对力度细致入微的掌控，对人类而言不假思索，但 对机器人来说，却是一道棘手的技术难题。 让这一切精准可控的关键，正是触觉 。 这是戴盟机器人两年以来完成的第四次融资，节奏并不算太快，前三次融资分别为： 今年8月，戴盟机器人宣布完成亿元级天使++轮融资，由招商局创投领投，东方嘉富、架桥资本跟投， 本轮融资将助力戴盟加速全球领先的视触觉感知与灵巧操作技术的落地应用，持续引领具身智能技术的 产业化进程； 2024年11月，戴盟机器人连续完成两轮亿元级天使+轮融资，由金鼎资本、国中资本、联想创投以及招 银国际联合投资。本轮融资资金主要用于 光学视触觉 传感器、触觉灵巧手以及含触觉的多模态感知操 作模型等产品与技术研发。 2023年9月，戴盟机器人完成数千万天使轮 ...

Core Insights - The report by Bain & Company highlights that humanoid robots will reshape industrial production and significantly impact commercial services and home life over the next decade, ushering in an era of "universal labor" [1] - The humanoid robot industry is still in its early exploration phase, with limited applications primarily in research, guidance, and some industrial manufacturing, but is expected to enter a golden development period in the next 5 to 10 years [2][3] Market Projections - By 2035, global annual sales of humanoid robots are projected to reach 6 million units, with a market size exceeding $120 billion; in optimistic scenarios, sales could surpass 10 million units, reaching $260 billion [2] - The cost of the Bill of Materials (BOM) for humanoid robots is expected to decrease from $40,000-$50,000 to $10,000-$20,000 by 2035, a reduction of 60%-70% [2] Key Factors for Deployment - Large-scale deployment of humanoid robots depends on four core factors: reduced scaling costs and positive ROI, breakthroughs in key technologies, urgency of industry demand, and risk tolerance in application scenarios [2] - The experience from the electric vehicle industry, where BOM costs dropped by 50%-60% over the past decade, serves as a strong reference for the humanoid robot sector [2] Hardware and Technology Development - Key hardware components, such as planetary roller screws and six-dimensional torque sensors, account for approximately 40% of total costs, with potential cost reductions of 70%-80% anticipated [3] - Eight critical technological bottlenecks have been identified, including AI chips, battery and thermal management, and sensors, with performance breakthroughs expected in the next 2-10 years [3] Industry Stages and Applications - The humanoid robot industry is expected to progress through three stages: early commercial exploration, initial applications in industrial sectors, and widespread adoption in commercial and household scenarios [3] - Initial markets will include tech enthusiasts and industrial pilots, followed by durable goods industries like automotive and electronics, and eventually expanding to healthcare, logistics, and home applications [3] Strategic Recommendations - Financial investors should focus on market size, profitability, technological barriers, cost reduction potential, and cross-industry application prospects, with particular attention to planetary roller screws, tactile sensors, and AI chips as attractive investment areas [4] - Potential industry participants must define strategic goals, select competitive tracks, and establish commercialization paths to build differentiated advantages [4] - Application customers should evaluate value creation and implementation feasibility before introducing humanoid robots, considering operational efficiency, customer experience, data assets, partner selection, organizational change, and regulatory risks [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry [1] Core Views - The machinery industry is experiencing a continuous recovery in its business climate, particularly in the engineering machinery sector, with significant growth in excavator sales and a positive outlook for infrastructure investments [13][14] - The humanoid robot sector is highlighted as a key area for growth, with advancements in technology and strategic partnerships indicating a robust future for the industry [6][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - A strategic partnership was signed between Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Co., Ltd. and Zhifang Technology to explore the application of embodied large models in automotive manufacturing [2] - Tesla's Optimus project leader announced his departure, indicating potential shifts in leadership and strategy within the humanoid robotics sector [2] Engineering Machinery - In April 2025, excavator sales reached 22,142 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with domestic sales at 12,547 units and exports at 9,595 units [13] - The report suggests that infrastructure investment will maintain a high level of activity, benefiting the engineering machinery sector [13] Agricultural Machinery - The agricultural machinery market's sentiment index dropped to 47.9% in April 2025, indicating a downturn in the sector [8] - Despite the current challenges, long-term demand for agricultural machinery is expected to rise, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [9] Semiconductor Equipment - The report notes that the implementation of reciprocal tariffs is accelerating the domestic substitution of key semiconductor equipment [16] - The emphasis on domestic production capabilities is expected to grow, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [17] New Energy Equipment - The report highlights significant investments in photovoltaic projects, with a total investment of 135.3 billion yuan in Yibin City, Sichuan Province [18] - The solar power generation utilization rate was reported at 94.0% in April 2025, indicating strong performance in the renewable energy sector [19] Low-altitude Economy and EVTOL - The Chongqing Development and Reform Commission released a list of 42 low-altitude economic application scenarios, indicating a focus on integrating low-altitude technologies into urban management and logistics [21] - The report anticipates rapid development in the low-altitude economy, which could create new industries and enhance consumer spending [23]