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前5个月广义财政支出超14万亿,财政如何持续发力
第一财经· 2025-06-26 14:59
Core Viewpoint - China's proactive fiscal policy is aimed at promoting stable economic operation, with a significant increase in fiscal spending despite a slight decline in fiscal revenue [1][3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In 2025, the broad fiscal revenue is projected to be 11.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1.3%, while broad fiscal expenditure is expected to reach 14.5 trillion yuan, an increase of about 6.6% [1]. - The fiscal deficit is expected to be 3.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.5%, which will be compensated through government borrowing [1][11]. Tax Revenue Analysis - The general public budget revenue for the first five months of the year is 9.7 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, with tax revenue at 7.9 trillion yuan, down 1.6% [3][4]. - The decline in tax revenue is attributed to multiple factors, including difficulties faced by some enterprises and a sluggish real estate market [4][6]. Non-Tax Revenue Trends - Non-tax revenue for the general public budget increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 1.7 trillion yuan, although it showed a decline in May compared to the same period last year [4][6]. Government Bond Issuance - To maintain fiscal spending, the government has accelerated the issuance of government bonds, with 6.29 trillion yuan issued in the first five months, a year-on-year increase of 38.5% [7][8]. Fiscal Spending Focus - Fiscal spending in the first five months reached 11.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with significant allocations towards social security, employment, and education [8][10]. - The central government has expedited transfer payments to local governments to support basic livelihood guarantees [8]. Future Fiscal Policy Directions - The government plans to implement additional fiscal policies as needed, particularly in the second half of the year, to meet economic development goals [11][12]. - There is an emphasis on establishing a childcare subsidy system and addressing investment shortfalls through new policy financial tools [12].