Key Points - The article discusses recent significant events in the economic and financial landscape, including a meeting between Chinese and U.S. trade leaders aimed at addressing trade issues and promoting cooperation [2] - It highlights a key article by Xi Jinping emphasizing the need to regulate low-price competition among enterprises, particularly in areas suffering from excessive competition [2] - The article notes the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut of 2025, with expectations of further cuts later in the year [2] Group 1: Important Events Review - On September 14-15, Chinese and U.S. trade leaders held talks in Madrid, focusing on resolving TikTok-related issues and reducing investment barriers [2] - Xi Jinping's article published on September 16 stresses the importance of addressing disordered competition among businesses [2] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on September 18, with projections for additional cuts in the near future [2]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is expected to continue its oscillation and structural trends as the long holiday approaches, with economic data showing a continuous decline impacting cyclical sectors negatively, while growth styles remain resilient supported by industry trends and performance outlooks [3][10][13] Debt Market Analysis - The debt market is likely to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a focus on credit bond coupon income. Current economic data has not provided substantial positive signals, leading to a weak market sentiment. The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate within the 1.75%-1.80% range, suggesting a strategy of range trading and consideration of high-rated 3-5 year credit bonds [3][10][13] Equity Market Analysis - The equity market is anticipated to experience continued oscillation and structural trends. The cyclical sectors are underperforming due to declining economic data, necessitating additional policy support. In contrast, growth styles, particularly in sectors like new energy and technology, are expected to perform well, with the upcoming October meetings likely to provide policy catalysts [3][10][13] Weekly Market Review - The report highlights that the A-share market is in a phase of oscillation, with the index showing slight adjustments while the ChiNext remains strong. The market is characterized by a rotation towards growth sectors such as new energy and AI, which are performing relatively well [10][11][19] Important Events Recap - Key events include discussions between Chinese and U.S. trade representatives aimed at resolving economic issues, and the announcement of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to influence market sentiment positively [9][10] Asset Allocation Performance - The domestic macro multi-asset model has achieved a year-to-date return of 10.27%, outperforming its benchmark by 4.50%. The global macro multi-asset model has a year-to-date return of 8.41%, also exceeding its benchmark by 1.64% [20][23]

Key Events Review - On September 3, a grand ceremony was held in Beijing to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, featuring a large military parade at Tiananmen Square [2] - On September 5, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) revised and released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Expenses for Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds," which includes measures to lower subscription fees, purchase fees, and sales service fee rates, marking the implementation of the third phase of public fund sales fee reform. The estimated annual reduction in sales expenses is approximately 30 billion yuan based on average data from the past three years [2] - On September 5, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the adjusted non-farm employment population for August increased by 22,000, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000. The unemployment rate was recorded at 4.3%, meeting market expectations and indicating a continuous cooling in the labor market, which strengthens the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month [2] Weekly Market Review - The stock market has experienced increased volatility recently, while the bond market has shown some improvement but remains volatile. Due to short-term adjustments in the stock market, combined with a meeting of the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank, which mentioned "central bank bond trading operations" and "coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies," there is an optimistic expectation for the resumption of bond trading operations, leading to a recovery in the bond market. The yield on ten-year government bonds briefly fell below 1.75%. However, due to weak momentum for further buying in the bond market, it is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with the ten-year government bond yield not effectively breaking through 1.75% [5]

Industry Overview Upstream - International crude oil prices are fluctuating at a low level, and PTA prices are falling [2] Midstream - PX operating rate is increasing, and coal consumption of power plants is decreasing [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities are picking up, and the number of international flights is declining [4] Zhongguan Event Overview Production Industry - In the first half of 2025, BYD led in terms of revenue and net profit among listed car companies, while GAC Group's data were at the bottom and it turned from profit to loss. Many car companies saw revenue growth, with BYD and Geely hitting record highs, but only BYD maintained profit growth, and its automotive gross margin dropped by two percentage points [1] - The Ministry of Commerce ruled that US optical fiber producers and exporters circumvented anti - dumping measures on non - dispersion - shifted single - mode optical fibers from the US by changing trade patterns [1] Service Industry - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held a meeting, affirming the achievements since its establishment last year and discussing topics such as financial market operation, government bond issuance management, etc. They believe that the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies provide support for the economy [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 2302.9 | 0.00% | | | Spot price: Eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/3 | | | | | Spot price: Palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 9492.0 | - 0.77% | | | Spot price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 15460.2 | 0.82% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/3 | 20.0 | 0.60% | | | Spot price: Copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 80360.0 | 0.97% | | | Spot price: Zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 22220.0 | - 0.20% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 20743.3 | - 0.22% | | | Spot price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 123333.3 | 1.12% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 16825.0 | - 0.07% | | | Spot price: Rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 3154.5 | - 2.67% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 782.3 | - 0.92% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 3322.5 | - 1.99% | | | Spot price: Glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 9/3 | 13.9 | 0.00% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 15050.0 | 0.95% | | | China Plastics City price index | Daily | - | 9/3 | 802.4 | - 0.18% | | Energy | Spot price: WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/3 | 65.6 | 3.70% | | | Spot price: Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/3 | 69.1 | 2.86% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 3892.0 | - 1.32% | | | Coal price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 782.0 | - 0.13% | | Chemical industry | Spot price: PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 4749.5 | - 3.34% | | | Spot price: Polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 7425.0 | - 0.36% | | | Spot price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 1712.5 | 0.29% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 1262.5 | - 2.13% | | Real estate | Cement price index: National | Daily | - | 9/3 | 129.3 | - 0.55% | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | Points | 9/3 | 113.1 | - 1.53% | | | Concrete price index: National index | Daily | Points | 9/3 | 92.9 | - 0.14% | [38]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and investment strategy of the招商创业板大盘交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 for the second quarter of 2025, indicating a net asset value growth of 5.31% compared to the benchmark growth of 4.13% during the same period [14]. Fund Overview - The fund is a trading open-ended index fund, primarily tracking the创业板大盘指数, with a total fund share of 267,863,172.00 shares at the end of the reporting period [2][20]. - The fund aims to minimize tracking deviation and error, with an expected daily tracking deviation of no more than 0.2% and an annual tracking error of no more than 2% [2]. Investment Strategy - The fund employs a full replication method to construct an index investment portfolio based on the composition and weight of the underlying index [2]. - The management strategy includes macroeconomic analysis and risk management principles, focusing on interest rate expectations and asset allocation strategies to manage bond investments [3][4]. Financial Performance - The fund's net asset value growth rate for the past three months was 5.31%, while the benchmark's growth rate was 4.13% [14]. - Over the past year, the fund achieved a return of 35.21%, outperforming the benchmark return of 31.82% [10]. Asset Allocation - As of the end of the reporting period, the fund's assets were primarily allocated to stocks (99.26%), with a minimal allocation to bonds (0.02%) [15]. - The manufacturing sector represented the largest portion of the fund's investments, accounting for 70.45% of the total asset value [15]. Shareholder Activity - The total subscription during the reporting period was 70,000,000.00 shares, while total redemptions amounted to 112,000,000.00 shares, resulting in a decrease in total fund shares [20]. Compliance and Governance - The fund management adheres to relevant laws and regulations, ensuring compliance in all trading activities and maintaining a fair investment decision-making process [12][13].