近日，债市出现较大波动，引发了市场广泛关注。其中，备受关注的10年期国债收益率也重新回到了 1.8%上方。与此同时，市场对于中国人民银行重启国债买卖操作的预期再度升温。 向前回溯，在2024年8月份至12月份，央行通过公开市场开展的国债买卖操作累计实现净买入1万亿元， 为债券市场流动性调节和稳定运行提供了重要支撑。 "该轮国债买卖操作较好地配合了9月份开始实施的一系列增量政策，对扩大需求、激发市场活力、增强 信心起到了较好效果。"广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平 告诉《证券日报》记者。 值得一提的是，此次会议重提"央行国债买卖操作"，也引发了市场关注。 "央行重启买卖国债的概率正在提高，年内央行公告重启买卖国债或值得期待。"浙商证券（601878）研 究所发布研报称，本轮利率若要重新打开下行通道，需要更明确的触发剂，央行重启买卖国债的预期升 温或将引导长端利率下行。在本轮央行买卖国债操作设立之初，这一货币政策工具就有常态化的意味。 在债券市场利率从快速下行转向区间震荡的演绎后，理论上当下市场环境对于央行重启买卖国债操作较 为友好。2025年年初，或出于利率下行过快的考量，央 ...

Key Points - The article discusses recent significant events in the economic and financial landscape, including a meeting between Chinese and U.S. trade leaders aimed at addressing trade issues and promoting cooperation [2] - It highlights a key article by Xi Jinping emphasizing the need to regulate low-price competition among enterprises, particularly in areas suffering from excessive competition [2] - The article notes the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut of 2025, with expectations of further cuts later in the year [2] Group 1: Important Events Review - On September 14-15, Chinese and U.S. trade leaders held talks in Madrid, focusing on resolving TikTok-related issues and reducing investment barriers [2] - Xi Jinping's article published on September 16 stresses the importance of addressing disordered competition among businesses [2] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on September 18, with projections for additional cuts in the near future [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in government bond futures has led to increased expectations for the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to resume government bond trading operations, particularly in the fourth quarter, to release medium- to long-term funds and improve market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds have fallen below 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively, indicating a significant rise in yields since the beginning of the year [1]. - The bond market sentiment is currently bearish, with the 10-year government bond yield recently rising to around 1.8% [2]. - The PBOC has suspended government bond trading operations for eight consecutive months, leading to a notable shift in the bond market compared to earlier in the year [2]. Group 2: PBOC Operations - The PBOC's resumption of government bond trading is seen as having suitable conditions, although the urgency is not strong at the moment [1][6]. - The PBOC has previously indicated that it would consider resuming operations based on market supply and demand conditions [1]. - The PBOC's operations are primarily aimed at managing liquidity and influencing government bond yield trends [2][3]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts believe that the resumption of government bond trading could stabilize bond prices and mitigate negative feedback loops from large-scale redemptions of wealth management products [6]. - Some analysts argue that the PBOC's bond trading operations are more flexible and effective compared to other liquidity management tools like reverse repos [5]. - The current market dynamics suggest that the resumption of bond trading may not fundamentally alter the interest rate trends, as the core factors are related to the stock-bond valuation relationship [6].

Core Viewpoint - The market expectations for the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to resume government bond trading operations are increasing as discussions between the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC have intensified, indicating a potential restart by the end of this year [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Coordination - Since the establishment of the joint working group between the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC, there has been a strengthening of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, with the PBOC's government bond trading operations being a significant aspect of this [1][2]. - The PBOC plans to net purchase government bonds worth 1 trillion yuan in August 2024, followed by 2 trillion yuan in September, October, and November, and 3 trillion yuan in December, totaling 1 trillion yuan [1][2]. - The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to enhance, providing a favorable environment for government bond issuance and maintaining market liquidity [5][6]. Group 2: Market Environment - The current bond market conditions, including a recent rise in the 10-year government bond yield to approximately 1.8%, suggest that the PBOC may resume bond trading operations in the fourth quarter of this year [3][4]. - The PBOC's bond buying operations are seen as a tool for liquidity management and are expected to help stabilize the bond market and encourage financial institutions to increase credit issuance [3][4]. - The second meeting of the joint working group has broadened its focus to include various topics related to fiscal and monetary policy coordination, which is crucial for addressing the complex market environment and promoting economic recovery [5][6].

Key Events Review - On September 3, a grand ceremony was held in Beijing to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, featuring a large military parade at Tiananmen Square [2] - On September 5, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) revised and released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Expenses for Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds," which includes measures to lower subscription fees, purchase fees, and sales service fee rates, marking the implementation of the third phase of public fund sales fee reform. The estimated annual reduction in sales expenses is approximately 30 billion yuan based on average data from the past three years [2] - On September 5, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the adjusted non-farm employment population for August increased by 22,000, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000. The unemployment rate was recorded at 4.3%, meeting market expectations and indicating a continuous cooling in the labor market, which strengthens the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month [2] Weekly Market Review - The stock market has experienced increased volatility recently, while the bond market has shown some improvement but remains volatile. Due to short-term adjustments in the stock market, combined with a meeting of the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank, which mentioned "central bank bond trading operations" and "coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies," there is an optimistic expectation for the resumption of bond trading operations, leading to a recovery in the bond market. The yield on ten-year government bonds briefly fell below 1.75%. However, due to weak momentum for further buying in the bond market, it is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with the ten-year government bond yield not effectively breaking through 1.75% [5]

Group 1 - The meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies to support economic recovery in a complex market environment [1][2] - The shift from a "single tool" approach to a "multi-policy collaboration" indicates a more synchronized rhythm, direction, and intensity of fiscal and monetary policies [2] - The meeting highlights the importance of the joint working group mechanism in enhancing cooperation and ensuring effective implementation of policies [2] Group 2 - From August to December 2024, the PBOC conducted net purchases of government bonds totaling 1 trillion yuan, providing crucial support for market liquidity [3] - The PBOC announced a temporary suspension of government bond purchases starting January 2025, with plans to resume based on market conditions [3] - The cost of issuing government bonds has increased, with the weighted average issuance rate for coupon bonds rising by 5 basis points to approximately 1.7% in August 2025 compared to July [3] Group 3 - The probability of the PBOC restarting government bond purchases within the year is considered high, with expectations for implementation in the fourth quarter [4] - Restarting government bond purchases is expected to release medium- to long-term liquidity, alleviating funding pressures in the banking system [4]