Group 1 - The market has been experiencing volatility and lack of direction due to high expectations and positions in the technology growth sector, alongside concerns about the AI bubble and cooling interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant pullback in the Hang Seng Technology Index by approximately 16.6% from its peak [1] - The domestic consumption and real estate sectors, despite attractive valuations and positions, have seen a weakening of fundamentals, making it difficult for investors to reach a consensus [1] - The banking sector has rebounded nearly 10% from the end of September, emerging as a preferred choice in the current environment of uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Over the past two years, the essence of China's asset dynamics can be summarized as the pursuit of "scarce assets" driven by "excess liquidity," with market consensus rapidly inflating asset prices once they are recognized as scarce [2] - The technology sector remains a sustained growth direction, with hardware in A-shares showing greater elasticity and software in Hong Kong stocks demonstrating resilience, although high valuations and expectations necessitate additional industry progress or liquidity to catalyze growth [3] - Domestic consumption and real estate chains, while having low expectations and valuations, face challenges in forming a lasting consensus due to weakening fundamentals, although policy catalysts could create temporary trading opportunities [3] Group 3 - Dividend stocks continue to be a good hedge against the backdrop of domestic credit contraction [3] - External demand chains should focus on strong and early cycles, with potential catalysts from increased physical investment due to U.S. fiscal policies ahead of midterm elections and unexpected Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - An "barbell" investment strategy combining dividends and technology internet stocks is recommended, with dynamic adjustments to weights based on market conditions to achieve effective hedging and balance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market has been experiencing volatility due to high expectations and positions in the technology growth sector, alongside concerns about the AI bubble and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, leading to a significant pullback in the Hang Seng Tech index by approximately 16.6% from its peak [2] - Despite attractive valuations in domestic consumption and real estate, the recent weakening of fundamentals has hindered consensus among investors, making dividend stocks a preferred choice in the current environment [2][7] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for the Hang Seng Index at 26,000 points, validating this view despite fluctuations in October [2] Market Dynamics - The current market turmoil reflects a disconnect between fundamentals and expectations, indicative of a weakening domestic credit cycle, as evidenced by the peak in private social financing in June and a marginal decline in M1 growth in October [7][8] - The market's oscillation between dividend and technology stocks highlights the ongoing struggle between current fundamentals and future expectations [7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider the credit cycle as a guiding framework for macroeconomic direction and asset allocation, focusing on sectors that align with credit expansion [10][11] - The past two years have seen a trend of "excess liquidity" chasing "scarce assets," with the potential for rapid price increases followed by liquidity shifts to new opportunities [12] Sector Analysis - **Technology Sector**: The AI industry remains a key growth area, supported by domestic policy, but faces challenges due to high valuations and expectations. Short-term focus should be on hardware domestic substitution, while long-term prospects depend on application demand and profitability realization [20][21] - **Domestic Consumption and Real Estate**: Although these sectors have low expectations and valuations, the weakening fundamentals make sustained consensus difficult. Potential short-term trading opportunities may arise with policy catalysts, but caution is advised against "static valuation traps" [17][42] - **Dividend Stocks**: These assets serve as a hedge against weak domestic demand, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Index offering a static yield of approximately 5.8%. However, the range of high-dividend stocks has narrowed, with less than 25% of eligible stocks yielding above 5% [43][45] External Demand and Cyclical Opportunities - The recovery of the U.S. credit cycle may boost global manufacturing, benefiting sectors tied to exports and commodity pricing. Key indicators to watch include U.S. manufacturing PMI and existing home sales [34][37] - The cyclical recovery in external demand may provide short-term trading windows, particularly in the first quarter, as domestic PPI is expected to rise [39][42] Conclusion - The investment strategy should focus on a "barbell" approach, combining dividend and technology stocks while dynamically adjusting weights based on market conditions. External demand-driven cyclical sectors and innovative pharmaceuticals may offer additional flexibility in the portfolio [17][19]

港股通——港股通科技ETF基金（159101） 在国内"过剩流动性"与"资产配置荒"的双重背景下，港股科技板块凭借高成长性成为资金追逐的核 心标的。2025年南向资金创纪录涌入超1.3万亿港元，其中科技板块占比显著提升，成为内资布局港股 的核心方向。 资金流入的背后，是宽松流动性环境的强力支撑。国内1年期定存利率降至0.95%的历史低位，150 万亿居民储蓄规模下，存款"活化"趋势明显，9月M1同比增速升至7.2%，7~8月就有1.3万亿元居民活期 存款转向资本市场。 同时，全球"去美元化"趋势下，亚太除日本基金对中国市场配置快速提升至接近标配，外资与内资 形成合力，持续推升港股科技板块的估值修复。在流动性宽松格局延续下，科技板块的资金溢价有望进 一步扩大。 【相关ETF】 QDII——恒生科技指数ETF（513180） 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.61%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.15%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed by 0.75% during the midday session, with a market turnover of HKD 133.003 billion [1] - In the technology sector, Bilibili surged by 5.12%, with Kango Bio, Xiaomi, and Alibaba rising over 4%, while Baidu Group increased by 3.22% and Kuaishou by 2.55%. On the downside, Kingdee International fell by 1.46%, Midea Group by 1.13%, and JD Group by 0.44% [1] - The influx of southbound funds reached a record HKD 1.3 trillion by 2025, with a significant increase in the technology sector's share, making it a core focus for domestic investors in Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2 - The influx of funds is supported by a loose liquidity environment, with the one-year fixed deposit rate in China dropping to a historical low of 0.95%. The trend of "activating" deposits is evident, with M1 year-on-year growth reaching 7.2% in September [2] - A total of CNY 1.3 trillion in resident demand deposits shifted to the capital market during July and August, indicating a strong movement towards investment [2] - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally has led to a rapid increase in the allocation of funds from Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) to the Chinese market, enhancing the valuation recovery of Hong Kong's technology sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market in 2025 is expected to exceed expectations, characterized as a bull market driven by industry trends (AI), fundamental improvements, and liquidity narratives [1][2] Macroeconomic Environment - The concept of "excess liquidity" is driving the pursuit of "scarce assets," with liquidity remaining abundant but the credit cycle shifting to oscillation or even slowdown [2] - The recognition of "scarce assets" changes with the credit cycle, impacting the types of assets that attract investment [2][3] Liquidity and Scarcity - The current situation in China is characterized by a coexistence of deflation and localized inflation, with excess liquidity leading to significant asset price differentiation [3][4] - The key questions for future market judgments are whether the liquidity environment has been damaged and if scarce assets can expand to a broader range [3][4] Credit Cycle and Asset Expansion - The credit cycle is expected to oscillate and slow down, making it difficult for scarce return assets to expand significantly [5][6] - The government’s role in stimulating credit expansion is limited, and structural issues remain a challenge for long-term growth [6][7] Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index's dynamic valuation is currently at 11.4 times, indicating that the market is not "cheap" and future index space will require earnings recovery rather than relying solely on valuation expansion [8][9] - The overall earnings growth is projected to be modest, with a baseline scenario estimating a 3% growth in 2026 [9] Investment Strategy - The company suggests maintaining a moderate allocation to dividend assets to counterbalance the weak credit cycle expansion [10] - Focus on sectors that can still expand credit, such as AI technology, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while underweighting real estate and consumer goods [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market in 2025 is characterized as a bull market driven by industry trends (AI), fundamental improvements, and liquidity narratives, with significant contributions from risk premiums and structural performance [2][17]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market's performance is influenced by excess liquidity chasing scarce return assets, leading to significant structural changes and asset rotation [25][26]. - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index saw a 30% increase, primarily driven by risk premiums rather than earnings growth [17][18]. - Structural characteristics include significant contributions from a small number of stocks, with 15 stocks accounting for 70% of index gains, while many others underperformed [2][19]. Group 2: Liquidity Environment - The liquidity environment remains abundant, with macro, micro, and external liquidity factors contributing to the current state [28][30]. - Macro liquidity is characterized by low interest rates and a loose monetary policy, while micro liquidity reflects a lack of effective demand leading to capital stagnation [28][30]. - External liquidity is expected to remain loose in the first half of 2026, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and the ongoing "de-dollarization" narrative [34][35]. Group 3: Scarce Assets and Credit Cycle - The concept of "scarce assets" is determined by the credit cycle, with different phases affecting asset preferences, such as fixed-return assets during credit contraction and growth assets during recovery [3][36]. - The current credit cycle is expected to experience fluctuations, making it challenging for scarce return assets to expand broadly across the market [40][41]. - The government’s fiscal policies are limited in scope, with structural preferences affecting the ability to stimulate traditional demand sectors [45][46]. Group 4: Sector Outlook - Emerging demand sectors, particularly in technology and AI, are projected to maintain high growth, although expectations may be overly optimistic [41][42]. - Traditional demand sectors, such as real estate and consumer goods, are likely to weaken again after a brief recovery, primarily due to low income expectations and cost-return mismatches [43][44]. - Fiscal spending is expected to be limited but may shift structurally to support sectors with higher growth potential, such as technology and innovation [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's executive director Benjamin emphasizes that banks have motivations beyond simply hoarding excess liquidity during periods of special monetary stimulus [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the behavior of banks in response to monetary policy, indicating that they may not always choose to accumulate excess liquidity [1]

Core Insights - Excess liquidity is driving the performance of various asset classes, including stocks and bonds [1] - Central banks' interest rate cuts have increased market liquidity, further boosting asset demand [1] - Strong investor demand is supporting the impressive performance of gold, European stocks, and certain sovereign bonds and credit assets as of the beginning of the second half of 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The market sentiment around Hai Tian Wei Ye has been volatile, with initial enthusiasm leading to a significant drop in stock price on the listing day, falling below the issue price [1][2] - The recent trend in the market shows that the perception of risk-free arbitrage in IPOs has shifted, with a high probability of losses being observed in recent offerings [2][3] - The performance of other companies like Hengrui Medicine and CATL has created a misleading expectation of easy profits from IPOs, contributing to the current market dynamics [2][6] Group 2 - The recent market downturn has affected various sectors, including new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating a broader sentiment shift [6] - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market remains high, as evidenced by the drop in overnight Hibor rates, yet this has not translated into positive market performance for many stocks [6] - The focus on stocks that are currently declining is emphasized, suggesting a strategy to concentrate on potential recovery opportunities rather than chasing new IPOs [4][6]