姓名：曹宝琴 重点品种： 【短评-玻璃】 全国浮法玻璃均价1260元/吨，环比上日+9 元/吨；浮法玻璃开工率76.01%，周度持平；全国浮法玻璃样本 企业总库存6282.4万重箱，环比上升5.84%；全国深加工样本企 业订单天数均值11天，环比+4.9%；1-8月，房屋竣工面积 27693.54万平方米，同比-17%。评：当前浮法玻璃企业日熔量 较稳，终端需求回升，下游深加工企业订单偏弱，浮法玻璃企 业库存上升，华东市场成交气氛一般，江苏、安徽假期期间主 流价格上调，市场重心走高，中下游陆续返市，刚需拿货为 主。预计玻璃01合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑1215一线，建议 观望或回调短线做多。 【短评-黄金】美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯 明确表态，支持在今年内进一步下调利率，以应对劳动力市场 可能出现的急剧放缓风险。他认为美国经济未陷衰退，通胀风 险缓解但仍需警惕，并强调货币政策仍属"适度紧缩"。美联 储理事巴尔表示，通胀和就业情况的不确定性表明，对进一步 降息应采取谨慎态度。评：美联储内部分歧加大，市场对未来 降息看法存在分歧，美元指数大涨，施压贵金属。贵金属短期 面临回调压力，短期震荡偏空。 投资 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦炭】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-34元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利-24元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利20元/吨，内蒙二级 焦平均盈利-103元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利4元/吨。评：供 应端，煤价快速反弹，焦企利润不断恶化，焦化开工承压，焦 炭产量环比有所下滑。需求端，铁水产量连续小幅增加，焦炭 刚需支撑较好。总体上，当前上游供应有所回落，下游节前补 库需求较好，焦炭市场基本面保持健康。利润承压下，主流焦 企已开启提涨，钢厂暂未回应，但成本支撑偏强及下游节前补 库需求较好之下，市场看涨情绪较多，节前价格预计保持震 荡。 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2253元/吨，下降7元/ 吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率82.53%，上升2.62%，中原大化50万 吨/年甲醇装置预期本周检修结束；下游总产能利用率74.62%， 周上升3.83%；中国甲醇港口样本库存149.22万吨，周下降6.56 万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存34.05万吨，周减少0.21万 吨。评：国内甲醇开工高位，下游需求回升，9月预期进口量维 持高位，甲醇港口 ...

【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2260元/吨，上升10元 /吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率82.53%，上升2.62%，陕西润中60 万吨/年甲醇装置预期本周检修结束；下游总产能利用率 74.62%，周上升3.83%；中国甲醇港口样本库存149.22万吨，周 下降6.56万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存34.05万吨，周减少 0.21万吨。评：国内甲醇开工高位，下游需求回升，9月预期进 口量维持高位，甲醇港口库存去库，整体外轮卸货不及预期， 江苏主流库区提货维持高位。内地甲醇市场变动不大，港口甲 醇市场变动不大，商谈氛围清淡。预计甲醇01合约短期震荡偏 弱，下方支撑2350一线，建议观望。 投资咨询中心 2025年09月29日 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普宣布，自10月1日起对多类 进口产品实施新一轮高额关税，包括对厨房橱柜、浴室洗手台 及相关建材征收50%关税，对进口家具征收30%关税，并对专利 及品牌药品加征100%关税。但对于欧盟、日本等已与美国达成 贸易协定贸易伙伴，美国将继续遵守协定中规定的15%关税上 限。评：避险情绪再度升温，叠加美联储降息，美元指数下 跌，再度提振黄金。 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1283元/吨，近期价格 较稳；纯碱周度产量74.57万吨，环比-2.02%；纯碱厂家总库存 175.56万吨，周下降2.33%；浮法玻璃开工率76.01%，周度持 平；全国浮法玻璃均价1170元/吨，环比上日持平；全国浮法玻 璃样本企业总库存6090.8万重箱，环比下降1.1%。评：浮法玻 璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，需求端偏弱，华东市场个别企业 近期有涨价计划，下游操作一般，刚需拿货仍是主流。国内纯 碱市场价格持稳震荡，下游需求表现一般，适量补库，低价成 交为主。预计纯碱01合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑1285一线， 建议观望或回调短线做多。 【短评-黄金】美国发布与欧盟正式敲定关税协议的文件， 确认自8月1日起，对欧盟汽车及零部件征收15%的关税。同时， 自9月1日起，欧盟药品、飞机及其零部件、仿制药及其原料， 以及部分金属和矿石等被列入关税豁免清单。评：近期地缘及 关税等风险持续加强，避险情绪利多黄金。美元指数再度上 涨，施压黄金。美联储独立性依然存在很多争议，降息预期利 多贵金属。黄金震荡偏多。 投资咨询中心 2025年09月25日 研究员 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】科威特石油部长Al Barra在接受当地媒体采 访时表示，该国原油产能为每日320万桶，根据OPEC+协议，科 威特将自10月起把原油产量提高至每日255.9万桶，部长同时强 调，OPEC+最新的增产决定与市场动态相关，未来增产措施可视 情况暂停或逆转；能源年鉴2025报告：石油仍然是最大的能源 来源，2024年满足了全球34%的能源总需求。尽管全球需求放 缓，但仍增长了0.7%，首次突破101百万桶/日的水平。评：对 未来供应过剩的担忧盖过了地缘政治紧张带来的影响，国际油 价连续第四天下跌。整体上，OPEC+从今年4月开始逐步增产， 10月将再次增产13.7万桶/日，其增产趋势增加了全球原油供应 量，非OPEC+产油国供应量也维持在高位，原油市场整体供应宽 松的格局使油价承压运行。逢高沽空为佳。 【短评-橡胶】泰国原料胶水价格55.8泰铢/公斤，杯胶价 格50.35泰铢/公斤；海南胶水制全乳价格14500元/吨，制浓乳 胶价格16200元/吨；据统计，截至2025年9月21日，青岛地区天 胶保税和一般贸易合计库存量46.12万吨（库存调整后上期总库 存46.47万吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Oil**: After geopolitical factors are digested, the oversupply expectation remains the dominant factor for oil prices. OPEC+ is increasing production, and non - OPEC+ supply is high. It is advisable to short at high prices [1]. - **Gold**: The US government shutdown negotiation has increased risk - aversion sentiment, causing a rebound in gold. The Fed's independence is controversial, adding uncertainty. Gold is long - term bullish but requires further short - term observation [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has slightly recovered, but the impact of over - production inspections persists. With pre - holiday stockpiling and futures - spot resonance, coal prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Overseas shipments have returned to normal, and supply is stable. Demand is supported in the short term, and there is an expectation of restocking, which strongly supports ore prices [4]. - **Rebar**: With a warm macro - environment, production is decreasing due to low profits. Demand is picking up, and the fundamentals are improving, providing strong support for the price [5]. - **Pig**: The market is currently oversupplied, but after continuous price drops, farmers' resistance is increasing. Short - term long positions can be attempted [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The increase in the reference price supports the futures price, but domestic supply is expected to be loose. It is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price has room for limited decline. It is advisable to restock at low prices before the holidays, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2970 - 3050 [7]. - **Rubber**: The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. It should be treated with a neutral view [8]. - **Asphalt**: The fundamental contradiction is limited. With low inventory and some demand, the price is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Methanol**: Domestic production is decreasing, and downstream demand is rising. The port inventory is accumulating. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic market is adjusting, with high - level inventory decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [12]. - **Polypropylene**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is slowly improving. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [12]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The restart of 14 - day reverse repurchase has different impacts on the bond market. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. - **Silver**: The US infrastructure investment plan increases risk preference, and silver is expected to fluctuate bullishly [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of September 19, the number of US online drilling oil wells was 418, the highest since July. OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, and non - OPEC+ supply is also high [1]. Metals - **Gold**: The US Senate Democrats blocked the Republican's temporary appropriation bill, increasing the risk of a government shutdown and risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: As of a certain date, the inventory of 45 ports was 13,801.08 million tons, a decrease of 48.39 million tons. The daily dredging volume increased by 7.89 million tons [4]. - **Rebar**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.35%. Production decreased, and demand increased [5]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: As of September 19, the average slaughter weight was 123.51 kg, the weekly slaughter rate was 32.06%, and the breeding profit decreased [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia raised the October reference price, and the export volume from September 1 - 20 increased by 8.7% compared to the same period last month [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of September 19, the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises were 9.42 days, an increase of 2.20% from September 12 [7]. Chemicals - **Coking Coal**: The daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.65 million tons, and the coking coal inventory was 790.34 million tons, a decrease of 3.39 million tons [3]. - **Rubber**: The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the downstream tire enterprise inventory is high, limiting restocking enthusiasm [8]. - **Asphalt**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 enterprises was 34.4%, a decrease of 0.5%. The factory and social inventories decreased [9]. - **Methanol**: The domestic capacity utilization rate was 79.91%, a decrease of 4.68%. The port inventory increased by 0.75 million tons [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The weekly output was 74.57 million tons, a decrease of 2.02%. The factory inventory decreased by 2.33% [12]. - **Polypropylene**: The capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.29%. The commercial inventory decreased by 3.59 million tons [12]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, increasing the release of medium - and long - term liquidity [13]. - **Silver**: The US is considering a $550 billion infrastructure investment fund, which increases risk preference [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Group 2: Report Core Views - For coking coal, the market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the upward momentum depends on "anti - involution" drivers. The coking coal main contract is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term [1]. - For crude oil, the supply pressure remains, and it is advisable to sell at high prices as the concerns about the US economy outweigh the positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the peak demand season is ending, and the US dollar index rebounds [2]. - For iron ore, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly as the global iron ore shipment volume rebounds, the arrival volume fluctuates slightly, the molten iron output fluctuates narrowly at a high level, and the port inventory is expected to increase [4]. - For rebar, the steel price may fluctuate narrowly in the short term as the "Golden September" steel demand recovers slowly, the high - priced resource transactions are poor, the supply - demand fundamentals improve limitedly, and the market sentiment turns cautious [4]. - For live pigs, the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust at a low level in the short term as the supply exceeds demand, but some regions have stopped falling and stabilized [5]. - For palm oil, it may trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see as the domestic supply is loose, but the cost side provides strong support [5]. - For rapeseed meal, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate downward in the short term as the feed demand decreases significantly and the actual new order volume of spot goods is poor [6]. - For rubber, it should be treated with a range - bound view as it is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, with high overseas raw material prices, continuous destocking of spot inventory, and weakening consumption [7]. - For PTA, the spot market may decline under pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to sell at high prices in the short - term as the terminal performance is mediocre in the traditional peak season, the demand support is insufficient, and the cost side is under pressure [7]. - For methanol, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see as the domestic methanol start - up rate drops from a high level, the downstream demand recovers, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - For silver, it is expected to fluctuate downward in the medium term and upward in the long term, and the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver should be noted as the initial jobless claims decline shows economic resilience, but the economic downward pressure is still large [9]. - For gold, it is bearish in the short term, and the medium - and long - term trends need further observation as the Fed's interest - rate cut is implemented, and the Fed's independence is controversial [9]. - For medium - and long - term treasury bonds, they may fluctuate in the short term as the issuance of ultra - long - term treasury bonds increases the bond supply, and the Fed's interest - rate cut may have limited positive effects on the bond market [10]. - For soda ash, the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips as the domestic soda ash market stabilizes, the manufacturer's inventory decreases from a high level, and the downstream demand is stable [12]. - For plastics, the L2601 contract is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips as the LLDPE price is stable, the production enterprise inventory decreases, the supply side starts at a high level, and the downstream start - up rate is expected to rise [13]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines is 84.7%, a 1.9% month - on - month increase. The daily average output of raw coal is 190,000 tons, a 44,000 - ton increase; the raw coal inventory is 4.7 million tons, a 32,000 - ton decrease. The daily average output of clean coal is 76,100 tons, a 33,000 - ton increase; the clean coal inventory is 2.328 million tons, a 217,000 - ton decrease [1]. Crude Oil - As of July 2025, the OECD commercial inventory is 2.761 billion barrels, a 2.4 - million - barrel increase from the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it is 66.5 million barrels less, 128.5 million barrels less than the average of the past five years, and 208.6 million barrels less than the average from 2015 - 2019. The freight rate of large oil tankers soared to the highest level in more than two years on September 18, and the freight rate index (TD3C) of the key route from the Middle East to China reached W108, a nearly 150% increase from the beginning of the year [2]. Iron Ore - From September 8 - 14, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China is 2.3923 million tons, a 180,600 - ton decrease; at 45 ports, it is 2.3623 million tons, an 85,700 - ton decrease; at six northern ports, it is 1.245 million tons, a 75,000 - ton decrease [4]. Rebar - As of the week ending September 18, the rebar output is 206,450 tons, a 54,800 - ton decrease from last week, a 2.59% decline; the factory inventory is 165,070 tons, a 15,600 - ton decrease, a 0.94% decline; the social inventory is 485,210 tons, a 20,200 - ton decrease, a 0.41% decline; the apparent demand is 210,030 tons, an 119,600 - ton increase, a 6.04% increase [4]. Live Pigs - On September 18, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" is 117.90, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index is 118.67. The average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 19.55 yuan/kg, a 0.9% decrease from the previous day; the egg price is 8.40 yuan/kg, a 1.6% increase [5]. Palm Oil - In August, China's palm oil imports are 340,000 tons, a 16.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 1.59 million tons, a 13.8% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's soybean oil imports are 100,000 tons, a 113.9% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 19 tons, an 8.6% year - on - year decrease [5]. Rapeseed Meal - In August, China's imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 140,000 tons, an 18.7% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 1.45 million tons, a 24.1% year - on - year increase. From January to July 2025, China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are 1.9756 million tons, accounting for 94.8% of the total rapeseed imports [6]. Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 56.2 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price is 51.65 Thai baht/kg. The price of Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 16,300 yuan/ton. In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reach 650,000 tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. In August 2025, China's rubber tire production is 102.954 million pieces, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the production is 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% year - on - year increase [6][7]. PTA - The PTA social inventory is 3.3091 million tons, a 24,200 - ton decrease from the previous statistical period. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 77.29%, and the polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 88.0% [7]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,247 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton decrease. The domestic weekly methanol capacity utilization rate is 79.91%, a 4.68% decrease. The 1.8 - million - ton/year methanol plant of Shenhua Xinjiang is expected to end maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate is 71.87%, a 2.2% weekly increase. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.5578 million tons, a 7,500 - ton weekly increase. The sample production enterprise inventory is 340,500 tons, a 2,100 - ton weekly decrease. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 233,800 tons, a 16,900 - ton weekly decrease [8]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, with an expected 240,000 and a previous value revised from 263,000 to 264,000. The number of continuous unemployment benefit claimants remains above the key level of 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [9]. Gold - On the 18th local time, the US government requested the US Supreme Court to allow President Trump to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte publicly accused Cook in August of declaring two properties as her "primary residence" to obtain more favorable mortgage rates and submitted relevant criminal charges to the Department of Justice [9]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The second re - issuance of China's ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (Phase 4) in 2025 has completed the tendering process. After the issuance, the overall issuance scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds this year has reached 1.148 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 88.3% [10]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1,288 yuan/ton, and the price has been relatively stable recently. The weekly soda ash output is 745,700 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% weekly decrease. The float glass start - up rate is 76.01%, unchanged from the previous week. The national average float glass price is 1,166 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises is 60.908 million weight boxes, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease [11][12]. Plastics - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7,296 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The weekly LLDPE output is 295,800 tons, a 3.21% weekly increase; the production enterprise inventory is 161,200 tons, a 0.86% weekly decrease. The daily production profit of oil - based LLDPE is - 334 yuan/ton. The average start - up rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increases by 1.6% weekly, among which the overall start - up rate of agricultural films increases by 2.6% and that of PE packaging films increases by 0.5% [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in nine months. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. Precious metals may lack further upward momentum in the short term, and attention should be paid to potential reversal trends [1]. - International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days due to concerns about supply disruptions from drone attacks on Russian refineries and the possibility of a US central bank rate cut. However, supply pressure remains, and short - term trading should be cautious [1]. - Pig prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term due to oversupply, with attention needed on the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [3]. - Domestic soybean prices are expected to be under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand, with attention on policies and new grain listing progress [3]. - Palm oil is expected to be under pressure in the short term due to high inventory at the origin and weak demand, despite a decline in production in Malaysia from September 1 - 15 [4]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The demand for iron ore remains strong, and steel mills are expected to replenish stocks in mid - to - late September [4]. - Steel prices are expected to enter a narrow - range adjustment stage. Although steel demand recovery is slow, macro - friendly policies limit the decline [5]. - Silicon iron prices may have limited downward space in the short term but are expected to decline in the medium to long term as supply - demand relations tend to be loose [6]. - The bond market may be negatively affected by economic recovery in the long term but may be positively affected by the Fed rate cut in the short term [6]. - Silver prices may be affected by gold fluctuations, and attention should be paid to whether the post - rate - cut market follows the expected trend [6]. - Rubber prices should be treated with a wait - and - see attitude as they are in a situation of low inventory and weak demand [7]. - PTA should be observed as polyester inventory is accumulating slightly, and there is an expectation of increased supply [7]. - Methanol and soda ash are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or make short - term trades [8][10]. - Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or make short - term trades on dips [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Fed's rate cut is in place, and precious metals may lack short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to potential reversal trends [1]. - **Silver**: US construction investment is lower than expected, increasing economic downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations on silver [6]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. Supply pressure remains, and short - term trading should be cautious [1]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pig prices are expected to decline in the short term due to oversupply. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [3]. - **Soybeans**: Domestic soybean prices are expected to be under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to policies and new grain listing progress [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The decline in Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 15 provides some support, but overall, it is expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and weak demand [4]. - **Rubber**: Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. It should be treated with a wait - and - see attitude [7]. Industrial Metals - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The demand remains strong, and steel mills are expected to replenish stocks in mid - to - late September [4]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: Steel prices are expected to enter a narrow - range adjustment stage. Although demand recovery is slow, macro - friendly policies limit the decline [5]. - **Silicon Iron**: Silicon iron prices may have limited downward space in the short term but are expected to decline in the medium to long term as supply - demand relations tend to be loose [6]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Polyester inventory is accumulating slightly, and there is an expectation of increased supply. It is recommended to observe [7]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol is at a high - production level, and port inventory is accumulating. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long trades [10]. - **Plastic**: Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long trades on dips [10]. Bonds - **Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may be negatively affected by economic recovery in the long term but may be positively affected by the Fed rate cut in the short term [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend across different commodities, with some expected to be volatile, some bullish in the short - term, and others bearish or with a neutral outlook [1][2][4]. - Geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and economic indicators significantly influence commodity prices [2][9]. Summary by Commodity Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks support short - term oil prices, but supply surplus and weak US demand may suppress prices in the medium - term; it is recommended to trade cautiously in the short - term [2]. Natural Gas - Not covered in the given content. Metals Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments are rising, arrivals are fluctuating slightly, iron - water production is high and stable, and port inventories are expected to accumulate. Short - term prices may be strongly volatile [4]. Steel (including Rebar) - Cost increases drive steel prices up, but considering the balanced supply - demand in the steel market, continuous price increases are doubtful; short - term prices may be strongly volatile [4]. Copper - Not covered in the given content. Aluminum - Not covered in the given content. Gold - Before the interest - rate cut is realized, the price trend is bullish; after the cut, it may follow the expected realization trend. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations [9]. Silver - Before the interest - rate cut, the price is expected to be bullish; after the cut, it may enter an expected realization phase. The influence of gold price fluctuations on silver should be monitored [9]. Agricultural Products Corn - Not covered in the given content. Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term due to strong new - grain harvest expectations and cautious attitudes of grain trading enterprises. The upward price space is limited [7]. Wheat - Not covered in the given content. Cotton - Not covered in the given content. Palm Oil - Floods in Malaysia's palm - oil producing areas and strong demand in India support the price. Domestic demand is weakening. In the short - term, the price is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. Pork - The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the price continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [5]. Chemicals PX - As PX maintenance units restart, supply increases to a high level. Although there is some short - term demand support, the expected increase in new orders and production load is limited. The supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [8]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories continue to accumulate. The short - term price of the 01 contract is expected to be volatile [10]. Polyethylene (including LLDPE) - LLDPE prices are weak, supply is high, production enterprise inventories are rising, downstream demand is expected to increase, and cost support is strengthening. The short - term price of the L2601 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [13]. PVC - Not covered in the given content. Rubber - Overseas raw material prices are resilient, port inventories are decreasing due to pre - holiday stocking, and the price is slightly rising. It is currently in a low - inventory and weak - demand situation and is expected to be volatile [8]. Others Tires - Not covered in the given content. Paper - Not covered in the given content. Glass - Float glass production is stable, inventories are slightly decreasing, and the trading atmosphere in the East China market is average. The domestic soda - ash market is in an adjustment phase, with supply slightly decreasing and downstream demand being mainly for replenishing stocks as needed [12]. Soda Ash - The short - term price of the 01 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long positions on price corrections [12]. Coke - Coking enterprises still have profits, supply is becoming more abundant, and the futures price is expected to be volatile after two rounds of price cuts. Attention should be paid to iron - water production during the peak season [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overall, after the military parade, the supply and demand of coking coal quickly recovered, but the second - round price cut of coke began. The short - term coking coal futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is continuously affected. The market is trading the subsequent interest - rate cut range and the number of consecutive interest - rate cuts of the Federal Reserve. Before the interest - rate cut is realized, the gold price shows a bullish trend, but the rhythm needs attention [1]. - The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are healthy, but the peak - season demand for rebar remains to be further verified, which limits the upside space of iron ore. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The policy signals are still positive. The supply - demand contradiction of rebar continues to accumulate, but with the return of the peak season, the demand is expected to pick up, and the policy still has positive impacts. The subsequent focus is on the recovery of peak - season demand [4]. - The supply of live pigs exceeds demand, and the pig price has reached a new low in recent years. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms and the recovery of demand [5]. - The potential increase in the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in Indonesia and the decrease in the production of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 10 are positive for palm oil. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and rebound [5]. - The supply - demand pattern of domestic soybeans remains weak. The price of domestic soybeans has stabilized and rebounded, but the upside space is limited [6]. - The short - term methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at the 2390 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - The narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap indicates strengthened economic momentum, which is bearish for long - term bonds in the medium term. In the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias [8]. - The short - term soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with the upper pressure at the 1310 level. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - The short - term PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with the upper pressure at the 6965 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. - Before the interest - rate cut is realized, silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. After the interest - rate cut is realized, it may follow the expected - realization trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations on silver [10]. - The geopolitical risk, especially the concern about Russian crude oil supply, supports the crude oil market, but the pressure of supply surplus and weak US demand may suppress oil prices for a long time. The medium - term trend is bearish, and short - term trading should be cautious [12]. - The weekly production of PTA may gradually recover. The overall situation is that the supply is at a medium - low level and the demand shows seasonal strength. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - The rubber market is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. It should be treated with a fluctuating view [13]. Summary by Product Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that the daily coke output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.88 to 46.6 (in million tons), the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.62% to 85.93%, the coke inventory increased by 9.58 to 633.29 (in million tons), the available days of coke decreased by 0.42 to 11.29 days, the coking coal inventory decreased by 2.03 to 793.73 (in million tons), the available days of coking coal decreased by 0.28 to 12.81 days, the pulverized coal injection inventory decreased by 5.60 to 415.49 (in million tons), and the available days of pulverized coal injection decreased by 0.62 to 12.14 days [1]. Gold - The US Senate plans to vote on Trump's nomination of Stephen Milan as a Fed governor on the evening of the 15th. If the nomination is approved, he will participate in the subsequent interest - rate decision - making of the Fed [1]. Iron Ore - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13849.47 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.15 million tons; the daily port clearance volume is 331.28 million tons, an increase of 13.50 million tons; the number of ships at ports is 100, a decrease of 4 [3]. Rebar - Mysteel research shows that the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.83%, a week - on - week increase of 3.43 percentage points; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points; the steel - mill profitability rate is 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average pig - iron output is 240.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.71 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.17 million tons [4]. Live Pigs - As of September 12, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.46 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate is 31.8%, an increase of 0.09%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 194.81 yuan per head, a decrease of 10.31 yuan per head; the self - breeding and self - raising profit is 21.12 yuan per head, a decrease of 3.22 yuan per head; the price of piglets is 284.29 yuan per head, a decrease of 31.42 yuan per head [5]. Palm Oil - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to 45% (B45) before moving to B50. Currently, the mandatory blending ratio is 40%, and it is planned to increase to 50% next year [5]. Soybeans - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that Brazil's soybean output in the 2025/26 season will be 175 million tons, the same as the August forecast, and Argentina's soybean output will be 48.5 million tons, also the same as the August forecast [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The weekly domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is 84.58%, a decrease of 2.05%. The 300,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Guizhou Chitianhua is expected to end maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate is 72.75%, a weekly decrease of 0.33%. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 155.03 million tons, a weekly increase of 12.26 million tons. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol production enterprises is 34.26 million tons, a weekly decrease of 0.45 million tons, and the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 25.07 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.94 million tons [8]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021 [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - quality soda ash is 1280 yuan/ton, showing a recent weak and fluctuating trend. The weekly soda - ash output is 76.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The total inventory of soda - ash manufacturers is 179.75 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.35%. The operating rate of float glass is 76.01%, a weekly increase of 0.1 percentage point. The national average price of float glass is 1164 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises is 61.583 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.33% [9]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 6820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from the previous day. The polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 74.83%, a decrease of 1.78% from the previous day. The average operating rate of downstream industries is 50.86%, a weekly increase of 0.63 percentage points. The commercial inventory of polypropylene is 83.66 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.32 million tons. The polyolefin inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is 65.5 million tons, the same as the previous day [10]. Silver - The preliminary value of the US September University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is 55.4, the lowest since May, with an expected value of 58. The preliminary value of the 5 - year inflation expectation is 3.9%, rising for two consecutive months [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 12, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US increased by 2 to 416 compared with the previous week and decreased by 72 compared with the same period last year. The US proposes to urge G7 allies to impose a tariff of up to 100% on the purchase of Russian oil [11][12]. PTA - The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises this week is 34.9%, a week - on - week increase of 6.8%. The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises is 39.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.6%. The weekly average comprehensive profit of asphalt production is - 491.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 122.3 yuan/ton [12]. Rubber - The price of Thai cup lump rubber decreased by 0.5 Thai baht/kg to 51.7 Thai baht/kg, the glue price remained firm at 56.2 Thai baht/kg, and the price difference between cup lump rubber and glue widened to 4.5 Thai baht/kg. Some areas in southern Thailand still have rainfall, and precipitation in Hainan affects rubber tapping, slowing down the new - rubber supply. The state - owned glue purchase price is 14400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of some private enterprises is 16000 - 16400 yuan/ton. Malaysia's natural - rubber exports in July decreased by 22.8% year - on - year to 372,000 tons and increased by 25.2% month - on - month [13].