Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: After the China-US summit, the risk aversion sentiment may continue to cool down. Although the US government is still shut down, the buying power of gold remains strong. Gold may fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and investors should adopt a range - trading mindset. Pay attention to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1]. - **Crude Oil**: There is a mix of long - term supply surplus pressure and short - term positive factors. Short - term positive factors include last week's favorable EIA inventory data, US sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, and the trade relaxation agreement reached after the China - US meeting in Busan, South Korea. Wait for the results of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - **Medium and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The counter - cyclical policy continues to be intensified, and the economic recovery has strong resilience, which is a long - term negative factor for the bond market. Open - market treasury bond trading, liquidity, the stock - bond seesaw effect make bond market operations more difficult. Adopt a slightly bullish trading mindset in the medium term [4]. - **Silver**: Positive information from the China - US talks and better - than - expected economic recovery in the eurozone increase risk appetite and boost silver. Silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [4]. - **PTA**: The polyester inventory is low, providing solid support on the demand side. However, with new plants starting trial operations, the expectation of weakening supply - demand is strong, and the weakening of crude oil prices weakens the cost support. The PTA market may decline slightly in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. - **Rubber**: China's rubber inventory continues to decline, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, which provides medium - term support. With the reduction of macro - pressure, the market is expected to move upward. Adopt a bullish trading mindset at low levels [5]. - **Live Pigs**: The national live pig price mainly declined yesterday. After the price continued to rise, the terminal acceptance is poor, and the entry of second - fattening pigs decreased significantly. The price may fluctuate weakly in the near future. However, the slaughter pressure of farmers at the end of the month is not large, and the demand is slowly improving, providing short - term support. It is recommended to wait and see, and farmers can hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As the end - of - month export and production data of Malaysian palm oil are about to be released, the market pays high attention. The fundamentals of palm oil are expected to improve in November. Palm oil will have bottom support and fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rigid shortage of supply and the low - inventory status of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of rapeseed meal price decline. With the stagnation of domestic rapeseed crushing and low oil mill operating rates, it is recommended to buy at low levels. Pay attention to changes in China - Canada trade policies [7]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is relatively stable. The methanol port inventory fluctuates slightly. The methanol market in Jiangsu shows inventory reduction, and the inland market price declines. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2225. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The float glass industry has stable operation and decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with supply remaining at a high level. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1220. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips [9]. - **Plastic**: On the supply side, the number of temporary shutdowns of LLDPE plants increases, production proportion decreases, and production enterprise inventory declines. On the demand side, although the peak season is not prosperous, downstream factory operations increase, and they maintain just - in - time replenishment. The cost support weakens. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly with a bullish bias in the short term, with support at 6930. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips [10]. 3. Summary by Product Category Metals - **Gold**: After the China - US summit, risk aversion cools, but gold buying power is strong. Medium - term high - level fluctuation [1]. - **Silver**: Positive China - US talks and better - than - expected eurozone economic recovery boost silver. Bullish bias [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Long - term supply surplus and short - term positive factors coexist. Wait for OPEC+ meeting results [2]. Bonds - **Medium and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Counter - cyclical policy intensifies, and economic resilience is strong. Bond market operation is difficult, with a slightly bullish bias in the medium term [4]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Polyester inventory is low, but new plants and weakening crude oil prices may lead to a short - term decline [5]. - **Methanol**: High production, stable demand, and slightly fluctuating inventory. Short - term weak fluctuation [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Stable float glass operation and decreasing inventory. Soda ash market is stable, with short - term fluctuation [9]. - **Plastic**: Supply reduction and demand increase, with weakening cost support. Slightly bullish short - term fluctuation [10]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Price decline and short - term support due to end - of - month factors [6]. - **Palm Oil**: End - of - month data attention and improving fundamentals in November. Short - term bottom - supported fluctuation [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Supply shortage and low inventory. Recommended to buy at low levels [7]. - **Rubber**: Declining inventory and reduced macro - pressure. Bullish at low levels [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Commodity Market Outlook**: The overall commodity market shows a complex situation with different trends for each product. Some are affected by supply - demand dynamics, while others are influenced by geopolitical events, policy changes, and market sentiment. For example, oil prices are short - term volatile but suppressed by supply - demand fundamentals, and precious metals are waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision [1][4]. - **Impact of Key Events**: Events such as the US government shutdown, potential sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions have significant impacts on the financial and commodity markets. These events create uncertainties and drive market sentiment [1][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: As of the week ending October 24, 2025, US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all decreased significantly. The API data led to a short - term jump in oil prices. However, supply - demand factors still suppress oil prices. The market is currently weighing the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil companies and OPEC+'s potential production increase plan. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **PTA**: Polyester inventory is relatively low, providing support from the demand side. However, new production facilities are being tested, leading to a strong expectation of weakening supply - demand balance. With the overnight decline in crude oil prices, the cost - side support has weakened. The PTA market is expected to decline slightly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: The US government remains in a shutdown state, and the Fed is about to hold an interest - rate meeting. Precious metals are oscillating while waiting for the meeting's outcome. Although the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled down, the buying power for gold remains strong. Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and a cautious approach is recommended. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1]. - **Silver**: The market has basically priced in another interest - rate cut by the Fed. Silver is expected to be bullish in the long term, with short - term oscillations and limited downside. Opportunities for long positions should be monitored [4]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: The GAPKI reported that Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly in August. However, multiple mining associations are requesting the Indonesian government to cancel the B50 plan, raising concerns about future demand. The expected increase in supply is putting pressure on palm oil prices, which are expected to be weak in the short term [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of rapeseed meal is rigidly short, and coastal oil mills have low inventories, reducing the risk of price decline. As the import cost of soybean meal rises due to the rebound in international soybean prices, the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. Rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [4]. - **Pork**: On October 28, the national pork price rose significantly. With the improvement in consumption due to cooling weather, the reduction in end - of - month slaughter pressure, and the entry of second - round fattening, there is short - term positive support. The pork futures price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upward momentum is limited. Farmers should hedge according to their slaughter schedules [3]. **Industrial Metals** - **Iron Ore**: From October 20 to 26, the global iron ore shipment volume increased. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, while terminal demand remains weak, and port inventories continue to accumulate. However, positive factors such as China - US talks and the Fed's potential interest - rate cut have boosted market sentiment. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and interval trading is recommended for the Iron Ore 2601 contract [6]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to increase in October, potentially reaching a new high. However, the demand in the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets is strong, leading to a significant inventory reduction. The market shows a pattern of supply - demand balance with a trend of de - stocking [8]. - **Rebar**: On October 28, domestic steel prices rose slightly. Positive news such as environmental protection restrictions in Hebei has boosted market confidence, and the tight supply of coking coal and the second - round price increase of coke have provided cost support. However, as the traditional peak season approaches its end, steel demand is difficult to increase, and the future increase in raw material prices is uncertain. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside may be limited [9]. **Others** - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which will support the treasury bond futures market. Open - market operations of treasury bonds will affect prices from the supply - demand perspective, and are likely to be a positive factor for the bond market. Considering factors such as liquidity, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market operations, the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upward in the medium term [5][6]. - **Natural Rubber**: China's natural rubber inventory has been continuously decreasing, and warehouse receipts have been declining. The reduction in macro - level pressure is driving the market upward. A bullish approach is recommended for natural rubber at low prices [7].

Report Summary Key Points of Each Product Steel Products - **Rebar**: On October 27, domestic steel prices mostly rose, with the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities reaching 3234 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to positive macro - expectations, potential balance between supply and demand, and cost support, short - term steel prices may fluctuate upward [1]. - **Iron Ore**: From October 20 - 26, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased. Considering supply, demand, inventory, and macro factors, short - term iron ore prices may fluctuate upward [4]. - **Coke**: The average national ton - coke profit is - 41 yuan/ton. With supply weakening due to cost pressure and demand slightly declining, but with relatively strong iron - water production and cost support, the coke market will fluctuate upward [5]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: Iraq's oil exports are 3.6 million barrels per day. The market is worried about OPEC supply. With upcoming macro - events and sanctions on Russia under observation, oil prices are likely to fluctuate upward this week, being in a stage of short - term geopolitical bullishness versus long - term supply - demand bearishness [2]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: On October 27, the national pig price generally rose. With improved consumption due to cooling and reduced end - of - month slaughter pressure, short - term prices are expected to be strong. Pig futures prices have rebounded, but the upward momentum may be limited [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil increased. With concerns about the B50 plan and weakening demand while production increases, palm oil prices will face downward pressure in the short term [7]. - **Soybean**: Imported soybean prices are stable, and domestic demand offsets trade - tension pressure, with short - term soybean futures (bean two) stabilizing. Domestic new - season soybeans are strong, with a bullish market sentiment [8]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: The market believes the probability of a 10 - month interest rate cut is 97%. Silver is long - term bullish but short - term downward - fluctuating, with limited downward space [9]. - **Gold**: The weakening of risk - aversion sentiment has led to a significant correction in gold prices. The expected interest rate cut has limited impact. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [9]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations by the central bank is a bullish factor for the bond market. However, due to liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, bond market operations are more difficult, with a mid - term slightly bullish outlook [10]. Chemical Products - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has high production, stable demand, and a slight increase in port inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 2245 [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is stable, with stable production, general demand, and a slight increase in inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with support at 1235 [12]. - **Plastic**: LLDPE supply is expected to remain high, while downstream demand is increasing. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, with support at 7000 [13]. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple commodities, including steel, energy, agricultural products, precious metals, financial products, and chemical products. It assesses each commodity's supply, demand, inventory, and macro - factors to predict their short - and medium - term price trends, providing investment suggestions such as short - term trading strategies and risk - management advice. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The US September CPI data led to market expectations of Fed rate - cuts. The strong US dollar is bearish for gold, but gold buying power remains strong. Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 1220. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [2]. - **Rebar**: The medium - long - term over - capacity in the steel industry may be alleviated, but short - term impact is limited. Rebar demand is improving but at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is relatively stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water levels. However, the profit contraction of steel mills and the end of the peak season limit demand. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is tightening, and demand from downstream and intermediate sectors is strong. The coal price is strong, and the futures price is expected to be supported in the short - term [6]. - **Pigs**: With increased demand due to lower temperatures and reduced slaughter pressure, the pig price may strengthen after adjustment. The futures price is expected to rebound at the bottom in the short - term [7]. - **Palm Oil**: As the traditional production - reduction season approaches in November, the futures price may recover. However, due to expected ample supply, the spot price is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. - **Soybeans**: Imported soybean spot market is firm, and domestic demand is strong. Bean 2 is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Domestic new - season soybeans are strong [8]. - **Medium - Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: Liquidity is loose, which supports the bond market. But with the stock market breaking through the previous range, the bond market operation is more difficult. It is expected to oscillate with a slightly bearish bias in the medium - term [9]. - **Silver**: US economic data in October is positive, which is bullish for silver. With a high probability of rate - cuts in October, the downside is limited. It is long - term bullish and short - term oscillating [9]. - **PVC**: Domestic PVC production is expected to increase, while demand is entering the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 4695 for the 01 contract. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory is accumulating slightly. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with resistance at 2300. It is recommended to wait for further stabilization [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market is in a game between short - term geopolitical bullish factors and long - term supply - demand bearish factors. A short - term low - level bullish approach is recommended [11]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, lower than expected. Core CPI and service inflation slowed. The market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point Fed rate cuts [1]. - The strong US dollar is bearish for gold, but buying power remains strong. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1271 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. Weekly production is 74.05 tons, down 3.93% week - on - week [2]. - Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 170.21 tons, up 0.09% week - on - week. The float glass market has stable start - up, rising inventory, and average trading [2]. Rebar - The blast - furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 84.71%, up 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The iron - making capacity utilization rate is 89.94%, down 0.39 percentage points [4]. - Steel mill profitability is 47.62%, down 7.79 percentage points week - on - week. Daily average pig - iron output is 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 14423.59 tons, up 145.32 tons week - on - week. The daily average port clearance volume is 312.65 tons, down 3.07 tons [5]. - The number of ships at ports is 107, down 17. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water levels, but profit contraction affects demand [5]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 73.47%, down 0.77%. Daily coke production is 64.61 tons, down 0.68 tons [6]. - Coke inventory is 58.64 tons, up 1.35 tons. Coking coal inventory is 1029.70 tons, up 32.33 tons. Supply is tightening, and demand is strong [6]. Pigs - As of October 24, the average slaughter weight of pigs is 123.21 kg, down 0.22 kg. The weekly slaughter start - up rate is 35.3%, down 0.34% [7]. - The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 279.65 yuan/head, up 67.28 yuan/head. The self - breeding profit is - 149.54 yuan/head, up 53.28 yuan/head [7]. Palm Oil - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 25 is 1283814 tons, down 0.4%. The futures price may recover in November, but spot price is under pressure [7]. Soybeans - In the 43rd week (October 18 - 24), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills is 236.74 tons, with a start - up rate of 65.13%. The 44th - week start - up rate is expected to decline slightly [8]. Medium - Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on October 27, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan. Liquidity is loose, but the bond market operation is difficult due to the stock market [9]. Silver - The US October manufacturing, service, and composite PMI are all better than expected. Economic data is positive for silver, and the downside is limited due to expected rate - cuts [9]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 76.57%, down 0.12% week - on - week [10]. - Social inventory is 103.52 tons, down 0.13% week - on - week. Domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is entering the off - season [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate is 87.4%, down 2.13% [11]. - Port inventory is 151.22 tons, up 2.08 tons week - on - week. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [11]. Crude Oil - After the US sanctions on Russian oil companies, Reliance Industries stops buying Russian oil. The market is in a game between short - term geopolitical and long - term supply - demand factors [11].

Group 1: Report Core Views - The supply and demand still suppress oil prices, but short - term geopolitical trends support oil prices, with a short - term low - level bullish mindset for oil [1] - The risk - aversion sentiment rises again, gold rebounds slightly, and the US dollar index has increased downward pressure, which is bullish for gold. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - China's rubber inventory continues to decline, and the tire operating rate increases, driving the market upward. A low - level bullish mindset is adopted for rubber [3] - PTA has many maintenance expectations, low polyester inventory, and poor polyester operating load. It is advisable to follow the upward trend of crude oil and take a low - level bullish operation [3] - The futures price of lithium carbonate continues the oscillating and strengthening trend. In October, although the supply increases steadily, the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields will lead to a tight supply situation [4] - The demand for steel products recovers this week, the supply - demand contradiction eases, and the high cost supports steel prices. Steel prices may oscillate in the short term [5] - The supply - demand structure of coking coal is tight in the short term, and the market sentiment is positive. Coking coal prices are expected to continue to rise slightly [5] - After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the stock market may react in the short term. The bond market operation is difficult, with a medium - term slightly bearish oscillating mindset [6] - Although silver follows gold's decline, due to the almost certain interest rate cut in October, the decline of silver is limited. It is long - term bullish, short - term oscillating, and there are opportunities to go long [6] - The upward trend of national hog prices slows down. After the oscillating adjustment, there may be a bullish expectation. Hog futures prices stop falling and rebound, maintaining a bottom - oscillating and rebounding pattern [7] - The production of Malaysian palm oil increases, and the inventory pressure increases. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. Palm oil will maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the short term [7] - The spot market of imported soybeans is strong, and domestic demand is strong. Bean No. 2 oscillates and stabilizes, and Bean No. 1 maintains a bullish pattern [8] - The domestic methanol operating rate is high, the downstream demand is stable, and the port inventory accumulates slightly. The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [10] - The float glass operation is stable, the inventory rises, and the downstream demand is weak. The domestic soda ash market oscillates weakly and stably, and the soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11] - The supply - side pressure of polypropylene eases slightly, the demand - side operating rate rises slightly, and the inventory decreases. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] Group 2: Specific Product Data and Analysis Crude Oil - On October 23, the US imposed new sanctions on Russia, and a US B - 1B bomber approached the Venezuelan coast [1] Gold - Putin said that US sanctions on Russia would not have a major impact on the Russian economy, and the US - Russia meeting was postponed [1] Rubber - In September 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 103.487 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. From January to September, the production increased by 1.5% year - on - year to 8.99386 billion. The tire capacity utilization rate continued to rise [3] PTA - PTA social inventory is 314.13 million tons, a decrease of 5.03 million tons from the previous period. PTA capacity utilization rate is 75.98%, and polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 87.51% [3] Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 74,821 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 458 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,800 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 450 yuan/ton [4] Steel and Coking Coal - As of October 23, the weekly output of rebar was 2.0707 million tons, an increase of 59,100 tons from last week. The factory inventory was 1.8463 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week. The social inventory was 4.3748 million tons, a decrease of 189,300 tons from last week [5] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.1%, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous period. The daily output of raw coal was 1.91 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous period [5] Bonds - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee announced the goal of achieving significant leaps in various strengths and reaching the level of medium - developed countries in per capita GDP by 2035 [6] Silver - Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24 to 27 [6] Hog - On October 23, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 17.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6% from the previous day [7] Palm Oil - From October 1 - 20 in Malaysia, the production of crude palm oil increased by 10.77% compared with the same period last month [7] Soybean - The IGC predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season will decrease by 1 million tons year - on - year to 428 million tons, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, and the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons [8] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate of methanol is 87.4%, a decrease of 2.13%. The downstream total capacity utilization rate is 75.11%, a weekly decrease of 1.53% [10] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash nationwide is 1,271 yuan/ton. The weekly output of soda ash is 740,500 tons, a decrease of 3.93%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7021 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.09% [11] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 6,597 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of polypropylene is 75.01%, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous day [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The reports cover various commodities, including coal, metals, agricultural products, and energy. Each commodity has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors. Market participants should pay attention to factors such as policy changes, geopolitical events, and macro - economic conditions [1][3][4]. - **Price Trends**: Different commodities show different price trends. Some are expected to have short - term support or upward movement, while others may face downward pressure or continue to fluctuate [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Coal and Coking Products** - **Coking Coal**: The average national ton - coke profit is - 13 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere is good, and the coal price in some producing areas continues to rebound. Due to frequent coal mine accidents and limited production increase space, the coking coal fundamentals are healthy, and the futures price is expected to be supported in the short term [1]. **Metals** - **Gold**: With the Trump administration relaxing tariff policies, the tariff disturbance may weaken, and precious metals may face a further correction risk [1]. - **Silver**: The silver price has risen by nearly 70% this year. The spot price is high, but it may face a correction risk after the market has priced in the Fed's October interest rate cut [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports has increased, and the daily port clearance volume has decreased. The iron ore fundamentals have slightly weakened, but the overall pressure is not prominent. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: After the National Day, the demand for rebar has recovered, and the supply has decreased while the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased, but it is still at a relatively high level. With policy support, the futures price may repair upwards from a low level [3]. **Agricultural Products** - **Soybeans**: The domestic feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days have decreased. Due to strong domestic demand, short - term bean No. 2 may stabilize in a volatile manner, and the domestic new - season soybeans may have upward space [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 has increased significantly. The market lacks clear news guidance, and the short - term supply - demand trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]. **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ is increasing production, supply from Russia and the US is high, and global demand growth is slowing. Geopolitical factors also suppress oil prices. However, if the Sino - US trade negotiation reaches more consensus, the oil price may be supported in the short term [8]. - **Asphalt**: The refinery's production is stable, and the demand is affected by weather. The demand and production may show a seasonal decline, and the price is under pressure [9]. **Chemical Products** - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement has put pressure on raw material prices, and the cost support has weakened. The rubber price may further decline, but the inventory decline in Qingdao Port limits the decline. It is recommended to operate cautiously [10]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC has decreased from a high level, and the production is expected to increase. The demand is picking up steadily, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is stable and slightly weak. The supply is high, and the downstream glass industry has stable production lines and general procurement sentiment. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The LLDPE production has decreased, but the market supply is still sufficient. The downstream demand increases slowly, and the cost support is weak. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. **Financial Products** - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: With the government's measures to boost the economy and the central bank's loose monetary policy, the medium - and long - term bond market is bearish. The bond market operation is difficult, and a mid - term oscillatory thinking is recommended [5]. **Livestock** - **Pigs**: The current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. The supply is expected to be loose in the short term, and the price will be suppressed. It is recommended to wait and see [5].

Group 1: Report Core Views - The ongoing US government shutdown and rumors of lay - offs increase the country's political turmoil. Although the dollar index is weak, which may provide some upward momentum for gold, the market is at a high level, so investors should be cautious about chasing high [1] - Natural rubber is in a weak downward trend, with the spot being relatively strong and the basis converging. After the rainfall in the producing areas eases, the supply is expected to increase significantly. The downstream tire enterprises are mainly digesting inventory, and the short - term driving force is weak. However, the overall low annual output and low inventory in China limit the downside [1] - The pig - grain ratio in Guangdong Province has entered the first - level early - warning range of excessive decline, and the province will start the purchase and storage of frozen pork. At present, the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. Although the price has a short - term small rebound due to the support of second - fattening, the rebound is not sustainable, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased, but India's palm oil imports decreased in September. However, the short - term supply - demand trend of palm oil remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on dips [4] - In the 41st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased, while the soybean meal inventory decreased. The domestic new - season soybean market is stable, with price polarization in the Northeast. It is recommended to hold existing long positions [5] - The market is worried about oversupply and the impact of trade tensions on demand. The current crude oil market is under multiple pressures, and the fundamental driving force is weak [5] - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that the US economy has changed little, and consumer spending has declined slightly. The expectation of Fed rate cuts provides some support for precious metals. Although the weak US economy is negative for silver, the strength of gold creates conditions for short - squeezing. Silver has limited upward momentum, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high [6] - China's inflation data has rebounded, indicating continuous economic improvement, which is bearish for the medium - and long - term bond market. Due to the joint effect of loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw, the operation of the bond market is more difficult, and it is recommended to use a volatile mindset [7] - The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply is expected to shrink. The demand is dragged down by tariff policies, and the terminal demand is entering the off - season. The impact of downstream demand expectations and crude oil on PTA prices is significant [7] - PVC supply is at a high level, and the social inventory is on the rise. The cost support is weak in the near term, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [8] - The profit and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are relatively stable, but the downstream orders are still weak, and the inventory is rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9] - The supply - side pressure of polypropylene has slightly decreased, the demand is flat, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10] Group 2: Specific Product Data Gold - On October 15 local time, the US Senate failed to advance the Republican's temporary appropriation bill with a vote of 51 to 44, and 60 votes were required [1] Rubber - Thai raw material glue price is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, and cup - glue price is 49.65 Thai baht/kg. Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 15,200 yuan/ton. From January - September 2025, Cambodia's latex exports decreased by 11.4% year - on - year to 220,240 tons [1] Pig - On October 15, the average pig - grain ratio in Guangdong Province was 4.98:1, entering the first - level early - warning range of excessive decline [3] Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 were 781,006 tons, a 12.3% increase from the same period last month. India's total vegetable oil imports in September were 1,639,743 tons, slightly down from August. Palm oil imports were 829,017 tons, significantly down from August [4] Soybean - In the 41st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 765.76 million tons, an increase of 45.85 million tons (6.37%) from the week of September 26, and a 14.29% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 107.91 million tons, a decrease of 11.01 million tons (9.26%) from the week of September 26, and a 6.17% increase year - on - year [5] Silver - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that overall economic activity has changed little, consumer spending has declined slightly, and employment levels have remained stable [6] Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - In September, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year. Core CPI rose 1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month. PPI remained flat month - on - month and fell 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months [7] PTA - PTA capacity utilization is 76.46%. The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 14 - 24 days, with POY inventory at 14 - 23 days, FDY inventory at 12 - 22 days, and DTY inventory at 13 - 25 days [7] PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. PVC capacity utilization is 82.63%, a weekly increase of 1.21%. The 400,000 - ton/year calcium carbide method device of Jinyuyuan is expected to end maintenance this week. PVC social inventory is 97.13 million tons, a 1.84% increase month - on - month [8] Glass - The national average price of float glass is 1,249 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The float glass operating rate is 76.01%, unchanged from the previous week. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 62.824 million heavy boxes, a 5.84% increase month - on - month. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 11 days, a 4.9% increase month - on - month [9] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6,578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton from the previous day. Polypropylene capacity utilization is 77.27%, a decrease of 0.76% from the previous day. The average operating rate of downstream industries is 51.76%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points. Polypropylene commercial inventory is 98.52 million tons, a weekly decrease of 2.6 million tons. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina polyolefins is 82 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons from the previous day [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The current crude oil market faces multiple pressures such as increased supply, dim demand prospects, and cooling geopolitical risks, with weak fundamental driving forces [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut still exists, providing some support for precious metals. However, the market is at a high level with increasing divergence, so it's advisable to mainly observe [1]. - The fundamentals of coking coal lack support, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to factors like inventory changes and US tariff pressure [3]. - For manganese silicon, the cost support is acceptable, but the industry continues to be in a loss state. The demand is affected by trade frictions, and the price may have a downward space after the peak season [3]. - Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to general post - holiday demand, slow de - stocking, and insufficient cost support [4]. - For live pigs, the short - term pressure on the breeding end to sell still exists, and the space for a sharp rebound is small. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For palm oil, there is strong support, and it's advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities at low prices [5]. - For domestic soybeans, the situation of increased supply and weak demand continues in the short - term, but the downward space is limited, and it's advisable to try low - buying [6]. - For natural rubber, the current valuation is slightly low, and it's recommended to operate cautiously due to the greater impact of the macro - environment than the fundamentals [6]. - For PTA, the impact of short - term downstream demand expectations and crude oil on the price is large, and the benefits of maintenance are limited [7]. - For silver, it may fluctuate more in the short - term, and it's necessary to be cautious about chasing high [7]. - For medium - and long - term treasury bonds, the operation difficulty is increased, and it's advisable to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw and think in a fluctuating way [8]. - For methanol, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9]. - For glass, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see until the price stabilizes after a pullback [10]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it's recommended to hold short - positions cautiously [11]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth to 3 million barrels per day this year and 2.4 million barrels per day next year, while demand is expected to grow by only 710,000 barrels per day and 699,000 barrels per day respectively. Russian crude oil exports reached the highest level since June 2023 [1]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible stop to balance - sheet contraction and another 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month [1]. Coking Coal - The inventory of downstream enterprises decreased significantly after the holiday. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.95% (- 0.05%), and the coking coal inventory was 819.32 (- 69.15) [3]. Manganese Silicon - The national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 44.18% (- 1.50%), and the daily output was 29,490 tons (- 335 tons). The cost support is acceptable, but the industry is in a loss state [3]. Steel - On October 14, domestic steel prices continued to decline. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities was 3,224 yuan/ton (- 11 yuan/ton) [4]. Live Pigs - On October 14, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.48 yuan/kg (+ 0.1%), and the price of eggs was 7.60 yuan/kg (- 2.1%) [4]. Palm Oil - Indonesia may regulate the export of crude palm oil, and the B50 plan may reduce global edible oil supply. However, the short - term price trend is still supported [5]. Soybeans - Brazil is expected to export 7.31 million tons of soybeans, 2.06 million tons of soybean meal, and 6.46 million tons of corn in October, all higher than last week's expectations [5]. Natural Rubber - Thai raw material prices are firm, and domestic mid - stream inventory is decreasing seasonally. In September, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million for the first time in the same period of history [6]. PTA - The PTA load dropped to 75.4%. The new device of Xin Fengming was postponed due to low processing fees, and a new Indian device is planned to be put into production [7]. Silver - The IMF raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2% (+ 0.2 percentage points) [7]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - Premier Li Qiang emphasized increasing counter - cyclical adjustment and expanding domestic demand [8]. Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, downstream demand has rebounded, and port inventory has accumulated. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Glass - The average price of float glass was 1,256 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), the inventory increased by 5.84%, and the order days of deep - processing enterprises increased by 4.9% [10]. PVC - The PVC capacity utilization rate was 82.63% (+ 1.21%), social inventory increased by 1.84%, and the average profit of production enterprises was negative [11].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities and financial products, including expectations of price trends, investment opportunities, and risk factors for each item [1][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity 1. Coking Coal and Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke is 9 yuan/ton, with different regional profits. Coke supply is highly restricted, demand is supported by high - level molten iron, and the fundamentals are healthy. After the festival, coke enterprises' raw material replenishment slows down, and the cost of coal is stable. The spot price is stable after the first price increase, and the futures price follows coking coal fluctuations [1]. 2. Gold - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October has risen to 98.3%. Gold and the US dollar index have risen simultaneously, and gold has reached a new high. Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upward, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. 3. Iron Ore - From October 6th - 12th, the arrival volume at Chinese ports increased. Iron ore demand remains resilient due to stable molten iron production. Port inventories have slightly increased, and steel mill inventories have significantly decreased. There may be an accelerated replenishment demand, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to build long positions in the context of a possible price correction [3]. 4. Rebar - On October 13th, domestic steel prices fell weakly. After the festival, steel market transactions were poor, and due to large inventory increases during the National Day and potential Sino - US trade frictions, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 5. Live Pigs - As of October 10th, pig - farming profits were in the red and worsening. The national pig price showed a north - up, south - down pattern. There is still pressure on the supply side, and prices are expected to decline further. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [4]. 6. Palm Oil - As of October 10th, the commercial inventory of major oils increased. Malaysian palm oil exports in October increased significantly, and the production - reduction season is approaching, which supports the price. However, trade risks and increased production may suppress the price. There are opportunities for long positions at low prices [4]. 7. Rapeseed Meal - As of October 10th, rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories decreased. Due to the loose soybean meal supply and seasonal decline in rapeseed meal demand, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [5]. 8. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - China's foreign trade has been growing steadily, which supports economic resilience. International risk - aversion sentiment has subsided, which is negative for the bond market. Due to loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, bond market operations are more difficult, and a volatile mindset is recommended [6]. 9. Silver - Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest - rate cuts this year. With the expectation of interest - rate cuts and improved risk appetite, silver prices have risen. Silver is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [6]. 10. Plastics - The price of LLDPE in North China has weakened. Production enterprise inventories have increased, and there are more maintenance devices. Downstream factories are expected to replenish inventory after the holiday, and the cost support is weakening. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. 11. PVC - The price of PVC in East China has decreased. Supply is abundant, social inventories are rising, and downstream demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [8]. 12. Glass - The average price of float glass has decreased. The profits and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are stable, downstream orders have recovered but are still weak, and inventories have increased. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. 13. Crude Oil - OPEC + production increased in September, and there are uncertainties in global energy demand due to factors such as the US government shutdown and tariff policies. The geopolitical premium has decreased, and the fundamental driving force is weak [10]. 14. Rubber - The price of rubber raw materials in Thailand and Hainan is provided. China's rubber imports increased in September. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. Short - term supply is expected to increase, but medium - term supply may be affected by low inventory and upcoming shutdowns in domestic rubber - producing areas [11]. 15. PX - Domestic and Asian PX operating rates are at a relatively high level. Due to the low processing fee of PTA and expected maintenance of PTA devices, PX supply and demand drivers are weak [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The prices of iron ore, gold,菜粕, palm oil,生猪,焦煤,螺纹钢,白银,中长期国债, glass, methanol, PVC,原油,沥青, and rubber are expected to show different trends, with suggestions for corresponding trading strategies provided [1][3][4]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - Mysteel statistics show that the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 904,000 tons week-on-week, and the daily port clearance volume decreased by 98,700 tons. The inventory at 45 ports increased by 242,200 tons, and the daily port clearance volume decreased by 94,000 tons. The number of ships in port increased by 5. - Supply is stable, and demand is still supported. Some steel mills have restocking plans after the holiday. However, Sino-US trade relations may impact prices. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. Gold - US Vice President Vance released some easing signals regarding Trump's latest tariff threat. - The tariff news last Friday led to a sharp drop in overseas stock markets and an upgrade in market risk aversion. Gold has limited upward momentum at present. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with strict stop-loss [1]. 菜粕 - In the 41st week of 2025, the菜籽 crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 14,000 tons, with an operating rate of 3.73%. The estimated volume for next week is the same. - As the temperature drops, the rigid demand for 菜粕 is expected to decline. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate. Future policy changes, upstream operations, and other factors should be monitored [3]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian government expects an increase in crude palm oil production in 2026 due to factors such as increased fresh fruit bunch production and improved oil extraction rates. - International trade situations are variable, and the future trends of US soybeans and soybean oil are unclear. Palm oil has strong support, and opportunities to go long on dips should be noted [3]. 生猪 - As of October 10, the average slaughter weight of 生猪 increased by 0.01 kg to 123.48 kg, the weekly slaughter operating rate increased by 0.19% to 31.14%, and the prices of piglets and the profits of different breeding methods decreased. - The supply pressure on the breeding side remains high, and the demand increase is limited. Prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 焦煤 - The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises increased by 0.05% to 75.18%, and other relevant data also changed. - Supply decreased during the holiday, and demand slowed down. Spot coal prices were weakly stable. After the holiday, production will recover, but the upside will be limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. 螺纹钢 - The blast furnace operating rate, ironmaking capacity utilization rate, and other indicators of 247 steel mills decreased slightly. - Policy signals are positive, but market demand during the National Day holiday was poor, and inventory accumulated rapidly. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [6][7]. 白银 - The preliminary value of the US consumer confidence index in October decreased slightly, and the expected inflation rate was slightly lower. - The US economy is still resilient, and risk aversion has increased. Silver has limited upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with strict stop-loss [7]. 中长期国债 - China's rare earth export control is not a ban, and the impact is limited. The US's tariff increase plan has been opposed by China. - Tariffs may cause market fluctuations, and risk aversion supports the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may be more bullish, but trading is more difficult. A slightly bullish and oscillatory mindset should be adopted [8]. Glass - The average price of float glass increased, the operating rate remained flat, inventory increased, and the average order days of deep-processing enterprises increased. - The profits and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are stable, but downstream demand is still weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu increased, the domestic production capacity utilization rate increased, and inventory and other data also changed. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand has recovered. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. PVC - The price of PVC in East China remained flat, the production capacity utilization rate increased, inventory increased, and the operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises increased. - PVC supply is at a high level, and demand is still weak. The 01 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [11][12]. 原油 - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, and the US is involved in Middle East peace negotiations. - The signing of the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East reduces geopolitical risk premiums, and OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts. Demand is also under pressure. It is advisable to trade short at high levels [13]. 沥青 - As of October 9, the weekly production of domestic 沥青 decreased by 6.8% week-on-week but increased by 24.9% year-on-year. Factory and social inventories changed differently. - In the fourth quarter, 沥青 supply and demand will decline seasonally, and the decline in demand is more negative for the spot market. Prices are expected to continue to fall [14]. Rubber - The prices of raw materials in Thailand and Hainan are provided, and the export volume of natural rubber in Malaysia in August decreased year-on-year but increased month-on-month. China's heavy truck sales in September increased significantly. - The rubber production season in Southeast Asia is from September to October, and supply is expected to be loose. Demand growth is limited. Although the supply-demand drive is weak, rubber is supported by low inventory and production in the medium term. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [15].