今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-生猪】据我的农产品网统计，截止到8月22日，生 猪出栏均重123.38公斤，上涨0.15公斤，周度屠宰开工率 28.83%，下跌0.18%；外购仔猪养殖利润-214.73元/头，下跌 10.68元/头，自繁自养养殖利润-9.19元/头，下跌21.02元/ 头，仔猪价格364.29元/头，下跌19.04元/头。评：周末两天全 国生猪价格稳定偏强调整，价格偏低运行之后，养殖端挺价； 天气逐步转冷，需求小幅增加，且二育少量进场，价格小幅偏 强调整。国家收储对猪价有短期提振，叠加宏观经济向好预 期，短多继续持有，LH2511合约下方支撑13700；养殖户根据出 栏节奏择机卖出套期保值。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为74.42%增0.08%；焦炭日均产量65.45增0.07，焦炭库存64.37 增1.86，炼焦煤总库存966.41减10.47，焦煤可用天数11.1天减 0.13天。（单位：万吨）评：供应端，主产区部分停减产煤矿 恢复生产，但山西吕梁、长治等地仍有因事故、过断层新增停 减产矿点整体供应略有恢复。进口方面，甘其毛都口岸日均通 关增加239 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding report industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations and trading suggestions for various commodities, including gold, crude oil, iron ore, etc. It analyzes the impact of different factors such as trade agreements, production plans, and policy regulations on commodity prices and market trends [1][3][4]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Gold - The US - EU trade agreement is favorable to the US and negative for the euro, causing the US dollar index to rise. Gold has a short - term rebound demand and may fluctuate upward, but the dollar - gold seesaw effect should be monitored. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting on Friday may increase precious metal volatility [1]. Crude Oil - Iraq plans to increase daily oil production to nearly 6 million barrels by 2028, and India will continue to buy Russian oil. There is a situation of weak expectations against the reality of non - accumulated inventory. It is advisable to wait and see at the current position [1]. Iron Ore - In August, the iron ore fundamentals have few contradictions. High iron - water production provides strong demand support. The ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a reference support level of 750 yuan/ton [3]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased. The demand side has some support from high iron - water production, but attention should be paid to temporary production - restriction policies. The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Rebar - The fundamentals of steel are weak, but due to environmental protection policies and policy expectations, the probability of a sharp decline in rebar prices is low. Short - term long positions can be considered in the 3000 - 3100 area, and caution is needed when pre - laying long positions in the far - month contracts [4]. Live Pigs - The national average pig - grain ratio has fallen below 6:1, triggering a third - level warning. The state will conduct central frozen pork reserve purchases, which can boost the pig price in the short term. Short - term long positions can be tried, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [5]. Palm Oil - Indonesia's palm oil inventory is at a low level, and the consumption peak season is approaching. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term [6]. Soybeans - The 2025/26 global soybean production forecast has been slightly increased. The domestic soybean market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the domestic soybean price is expected to remain weakly stable in the short term [8]. Silver - The US economic data shows resilience, and the US - EU agreement boosts risk appetite. The silver price is expected to fluctuate upward, and attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [8]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The upcoming large - scale policy - based financial instruments may increase stock market investment and have a negative impact on the bond market. The bond market is expected to show more volatility, and short positions can be considered for long - term bonds at key resistance levels [9]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is sufficient as the Southeast Asian production season approaches, and the demand is weak. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. PTA - Jiangsu's policy draft signals a solution to over - capacity. For PTA, the proportion of 1 million - ton/year devices is low, and the price is expected to rise slightly in the short term, but caution is needed at high levels [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views - The steel market may experience weak and volatile prices in the short - term due to decreased demand in the off - season and expected production restrictions in Tangshan [1]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, with a suggested strategy of short - selling on rebounds [2]. - The manganese silicon price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and its upside potential is limited in the long - term [4]. - The coking coal futures are expected to be volatile in the short - term as the supply recovery is slow and demand has slowed down [5]. - The short - term price of live pigs futures is stable, and farmers are advised to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. - The palm oil price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term [7]. - The domestic soybean price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term [7]. - The L2601 contract of plastics is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, with a suggested strategy of short - selling on rebounds [8]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9]. - The silver is still expected to be bullish with increased volatility recently [9]. - The gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but be bearish in the medium - term [10]. - The medium - and long - term treasury bonds are expected to rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - term [10]. - The crude oil is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [12]. - The polyester staple fiber is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - The rubber is expected to be in a range - bound and weak in the short - term [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - On August 19, the domestic steel market price fell weakly. The average price of rebar in major cities was 3347 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The demand for steel in the off - season continued to decline, and the supply - demand pressure increased. However, considering the planned production restrictions of Tangshan steel mills at the end of August and early September, the market bearish sentiment was not strong [1]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest decreased by 0.75 tons to 2.83 tons. The market price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2280 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 9.63 tons to 102.18 tons, and the production enterprise inventory increased by 0.19 tons to 29.56 tons. The methanol capacity utilization rate rose by 0.97% to 82.4%, while the downstream total capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.34% to 72.36% [2]. Manganese Silicon - The national开工率 (capacity utilization rate) of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 45.75%, up 2.32% from the previous week, and the daily average output increased by 1605 tons to 29580 tons. The cost support of manganese silicon was strong, but the supply - demand relationship tended to be loose due to the resumption of production by manufacturers [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.13%, up 0.38%. The daily average coke production increased by 0.27 to 52.29, the coke inventory decreased by 5.32 to 39.31, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 3.34 to 829.41, and the available days of coking coal decreased by 0.11 days to 11.9 days [5]. Live Pigs - On August 19, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.09 points to 115.33, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.11 points to 115.70. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 20.21 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of eggs rose 1.8% to 7.73 yuan/kg [6]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects the palm oil price to remain above 4300 ringgit. The domestic spot price decreased, and the trading volume was slightly boosted. The international soybean - palm oil price spread was inverted again, affecting future demand, but there was still support from holiday stocking in India and China [7]. Soybean - Brazil's soybean export volume in August is expected to reach 890 tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 880 tons. The domestic soybean market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. The new soybeans have not been listed in large quantities, but the state - reserve auctions have supplemented the market supply. The demand is weak due to high - temperature weather and the impact of other food prices [7]. Plastics - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China was 7327 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The weekly production was 28.96 tons, down 3.6%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 16% to 15.17 tons. The oil - based daily production profit was - 244 yuan/ton. The average opening rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.3% [8]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash was 1326 yuan/ton, showing weak and volatile trends recently. The weekly production was 76.13 tons, up 2.24%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased by 1.54% to 189.38 tons. The opening rate of float glass was 75.34%, up 0.15% [9]. Silver - The S&P confirmed the US "AA +/A - 1+" sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook. The market believes that the US economy is still resilient, and the US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on precious metals. However, the silver is still expected to be bullish with increased volatility [9]. Gold - The geopolitical situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict shows signs of easing, and the safe - haven sentiment has cooled. Coupled with the Fed's interest - rate cut and the rise of the US dollar index, the gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but be bearish in the medium - term [10]. Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank increased the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan. The bond market may rebound in the short - term due to loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, but it is bearish in the medium - term [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels, the distillate inventory increased by 0.5 million barrels, and the gasoline inventory increased by 1 million barrels. The profit of China's diesel and gasoline exports was poor, and India's economic growth rate was lower than expected, putting pressure on the oil market. The short - term crude oil has no upward driving force and is expected to be weak and volatile [11][12]. Short - fiber - The average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 86.45%, down 0.04% from the previous period. The production was 16.35 tons, down 0.01 tons or 0.06%. The average opening rate of the pure - polyester yarn industry was 70.96%, unchanged from the previous period. The average cash flow of the polyester staple fiber industry was - 223.77 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [12]. Rubber - The price of raw rubber glue in Thailand was 54.7 baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber was 49.8 baht/kg. In July 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 94.364 million, down 7.3% year - on - year. From January to July, the production increased by 0.7% to 686.115 million compared with the same period last year. The supply was stable, the social inventory decreased slightly, and the demand was weak [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The coke market is expected to continue its volatile and upward trend in the short term due to tight supply and strong demand [1]. - Gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but remain volatile and bearish in the medium term due to the strength of the US dollar [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with support from iron water demand and seasonal shipping lulls [3]. - Rebar prices may be volatile and weak in the short term due to weak demand and increased inventory [4]. - Treasury bonds are expected to have a short - term rebound but remain volatile and bearish in the medium term, with the stock - bond seesaw as the main logic [4]. - Silver is expected to have a short - term correction but remain volatile and bullish [5]. - The pig market has a short - term rebound expectation, but the supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction [5]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short term, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions [6][7]. - Methanol is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. - Soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - LLDPE is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Crude oil is expected to be volatile and weak, with market focus on the US - Russia negotiation [10]. - PTA follows the trend of crude oil, and there is pressure on the supply side [11]. - Rubber is expected to be volatile and bullish, with short - term supply support and improved demand expectations [11]. Summary by Variety Coke - On August 14, mainstream steel mills raised coke purchase prices. Coke prices have risen for six consecutive rounds. Some coking coal varieties have weakened, and coking enterprises' operating pressure has eased. Supply may tighten slightly, and demand remains strong. Coke supply is tight, and the market is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [1]. Gold - US initial jobless claims decreased, and PPI increased significantly, strengthening the US dollar and pressuring precious metals. Gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but remain volatile and bearish in the medium term [1]. Iron Ore - From August 4 - 10, global iron ore shipments decreased. Iron water production decreased slightly, but demand remained resilient, and port inventory increased. Ore prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term, and it is recommended to operate within the range of the Iron Ore 2601 contract with a support level of 750 yuan/ton [3]. Rebar - As of August 14, rebar production decreased slightly, while factory and social inventories increased, and apparent demand decreased significantly. With weak demand and increased inventory, rebar prices may be volatile and weak in the short term [4]. Treasury Bonds - The central bank has increased liquidity injection, which supports the bond market. The bond market is currently affected by liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw, with a short - term rebound and medium - term bearish trend [4]. Silver - US PPI in July increased significantly, suppressing interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index rebounded, pressuring precious metals. Silver may correct further in the short term but remains volatile and bullish [5]. Pig - On August 14, the national average pork price decreased slightly. Pig prices in different regions showed a mixed trend. There is a short - term rebound expectation, but supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction, with a support level of 13700 for the LH2511 contract [5]. Palm Oil - India's palm oil imports in July decreased. Affected by news and profit - taking of long - position funds, palm oil prices are expected to be high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions [6][7]. Methanol - Methanol port inventory increased, and the capacity utilization rate rose. The downstream demand was stable. Methanol is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a pressure level of 2465 for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy - duty soda ash was volatile and weak. Production increased, and inventory rose. The float glass industry was stable, but inventory increased. Soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a pressure level of 1425 for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. LLDPE - The price of LLDPE increased slightly, production decreased, and enterprise inventory decreased. The downstream demand was general. LLDPE is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a pressure level of 7365 for the L2601 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Crude Oil - US refined oil demand increased year - on - year. OPEC + has increased production, and the IEA has adjusted supply and demand forecasts. The US - Russia meeting has uncertainty. Crude oil is expected to be volatile and weak, with market focus on the negotiation [10]. PTA - PTA supply pressure exists, and the downstream is the traditional peak season. However, polyester profit is poor, which may affect production enthusiasm. PTA follows the trend of crude oil [11]. Rubber - The price of rubber raw materials was stable. Tire capacity utilization showed differentiation. The supply side has short - term support, and demand expectations have improved. Rubber is expected to be volatile and bullish [11].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Rubber: With stronger raw material prices, improved demand expectations, and positive macro - factors, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - Gold: Short - term rebound, but medium - term outlook is still bearish and oscillating. Attention should be paid to the inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold [2]. - Crude Oil: Expected to oscillate weakly. The outcome of the US - Russia negotiation on August 15 should be watched [4]. - PTA: Follows the crude oil trend and oscillates weakly due to supply pressure and uncertain downstream demand [5]. - Pig: Short - term over - optimism is not advisable, while long - term long positions in the LH2511 contract can be considered. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. - Palm Oil: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. - Silver: Oscillates with a bullish bias as the probability of a September interest rate cut remains high [8]. - Rapeseed Meal: There is a continuous tug - of - war between bulls and bears in the market [9]. - Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds: Short - term bullish, but medium - term outlook is bearish and oscillating [9]. - Coking Coal: Short - term price correction space is limited, and subsequent coal production and downstream production cuts should be monitored [10]. - Ferrosilicon: Prices are expected to follow the sector in the short term, but there are concerns about the medium - to - long - term fundamentals [10]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12]. - Plastic: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13]. - Glass: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [14]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Rubber - Thailand's raw material prices are rising, and Hainan's rubber collection is affected by rainfall. China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased, and demand expectations are improving. The Fed's potential interest rate cut also boosts the market [1]. Gold - The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike and the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict influence the gold market [2]. Crude Oil - The IEA has adjusted supply and demand forecasts, and the EIA reported an increase in US production and inventory. The US - Russia meeting may impact the geopolitical support for oil prices [4]. PTA - PTA device maintenance has increased, but the operating rate is expected to rise. Downstream polyester demand has uncertainties due to profit issues [5]. Pig - Pig prices are rising steadily with regional differences. Demand remains weak, and investment strategies vary in the short and long term [6]. Palm Oil - The USDA report shows stable production and export forecasts, with a slight decrease in consumption and inventory. Market sentiment is bullish in the short term [7]. Silver - Fed officials are trying to cool the interest - rate cut expectations, but a September cut is still likely, leading to a bullish outlook for silver [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply shortages may drive prices up, but demand - side substitution and other factors restrict price increases [9]. Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - Bond yields are falling, and the market may rebound in the short term, but the medium - term outlook is bearish [9]. Coking Coal - The production and inventory of washed coal are increasing, and downstream demand has support, but the market is in a wait - and - see state [10]. Ferrosilicon - The cost is supported, but production is increasing, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand relationship may become looser [10]. Methanol - Port inventory is accumulating, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Plastic - Supply pressure may ease, and the market is expected to oscillate with weak cost support [13]. Glass - Production is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is rising, with the market expected to oscillate [14].

邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】据CME"美联储观察"，美联储9月维持利率 不变的概率为14.1%，降息25个基点的概率为85.9%。美联储10 月维持利率不变的概率为5.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为 39.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为55.1%。评：9月降息预期大 幅增加，资金回流美国意愿增加。美元指数大幅反弹，利空黄 金。俄乌冲突或即将画上句号，利多风险资产，利空避险资 产。黄金震荡偏空。关注美元和黄金的跷跷板效应。 【短评-聚丙烯】 华东拉丝级聚丙烯主流价7058元/吨，下 降3元/吨；聚丙烯产能利用率77.77%，较上日+1.34%；下游行 业平均开工48.9%，周上升0.5个百分点；聚丙烯商业库存85.66 万吨，周上升5.61万吨；两油聚烯烃库存83.5万吨，周上升9万 吨。评：聚丙烯开工上升，整体供应仍充裕，商业库存上升， 高于前两年同期值，在供需宽松背景下，预计商业库存阶段性 仍高位运行。聚丙烯市场价震荡运行，需求端局部缓慢提升， 整体下游面 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have no obvious contradictions, and the futures price is expected to rise easily and fall hard in the short term [1] - Gold is expected to experience a short - term further correction and show an oscillating and bearish trend [2] - The fundamentals of rebar are marginally weakening, but the futures price still has strong support before the parade [4] - The fundamentals of iron ore have limited bearish drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [5] - The bond market still has upward momentum in the short term, and a strategy of short - selling at important resistance levels is recommended [5] - For live pigs, short - term interval trading for the LH2509 contract or long - term layout of long positions for the LH2511 contract is recommended [6] - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] - Gold and silver may show a divergent trend, with silver in an upward trend [7] - The spot price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [7] - The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short term [8] - The L2601 contract of LLDPE is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9] - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10] Group 3: Summaries According to Short - Comments Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization rate is 74.03%, an increase of 0.34%; daily coke output is 65.10, an increase of 0.29; coke inventory is 69.73, a decrease of 3.89; total coking coal inventory is 987.92, a decrease of 4.81; coking coal available days are 11.4 days, a decrease of 0.11 days [1] - Supply is reduced due to over - production verification and the "276 - working - day" plan; the Ganqimaodu Port's daily average customs clearance is 1166 vehicles, remaining at a high level; downstream procurement has slowed down, but coal mine inventories continue to decline [1] Gold - The Trump administration will clarify the "misinformation" about gold tariffs; the short - term callback is expected, and it is oscillating and bearish in the long - term due to factors like the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2] Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 percentage points; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points; steel mill profitability rate is 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points; daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.62 tons [4] - Steel mill production restrictions are expected due to the approaching parade; typhoon impact has weakened, demand has recovered, production has increased, and inventory has accumulated [4] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13712.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 54.37 tons; daily average port clearance volume is 321.85 tons, an increase of 19.14 tons; the number of ships at ports is 105, an increase of 15 [5] - Overseas mine shipments have decreased, but port arrivals have increased; steel enterprise profitability is at a high level, and short - term production reduction is less likely [5] Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - A number of major foreign - funded projects are progressing steadily, and policies to attract foreign investment are being strengthened; exports are resilient, and counter - cyclical adjustment may be intensified in the second half of the year; liquidity is relatively loose, supporting the bond market [5] Live Pigs - As of August 8, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.32 kg, a decrease of 0.22 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.29%, an increase of 0.11%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 31.43 yuan per head, a decrease of 12.74 yuan per head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is - 186.91 yuan per head, a decrease of 15.56 yuan per head; the price of piglets is 413.81 yuan per head, a decrease of 9.05 yuan per head [6] - Farmers' price - holding sentiment has emerged after price drops, but terminal demand is weak, and there is no continuous upward momentum [6] Palm Oil - From August 1 to 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 482,576 tons, a 23.3% increase from the previous month [6] - As the main contract is approaching replacement, the spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has widened slightly, and consumption is mainly for rigid demand [6] Silver - On August 11, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September is 88.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11.6% [7] - The US dollar index has a short - term rebound demand, but the downward trend remains, which is beneficial to precious metals; silver is in an upward trend [7] Soybean Meal - Last week's average daily trading volume of soybean meal is 29.664 tons, with spot trading volume of 10.684 tons; this week's average daily trading volume is 51.198 tons, with spot trading volume of 7.092 tons [7] - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of lower near - term prices and higher long - term prices, and the spot price is expected to oscillate strongly [7] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2380 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan per ton; China's methanol port sample inventory is 92.55 tons, a weekly increase of 11.71 tons; sample production enterprise inventory is 29.37 tons, a weekly decrease of 3.08 tons; sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 24.08 tons, a weekly increase of 1.01 tons; methanol capacity utilization rate is 81.61%, a weekly decrease of 3.55%; downstream total capacity utilization rate is 72.61%, a weekly increase of 0.85% [8] - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has accumulated significantly, and the market is expected to oscillate [8] Plastic (LLDPE) - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7321 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan per ton; LLDPE weekly output is 30.04 tons, a weekly increase of 9.76%; production enterprise inventory is 18.06 tons, a weekly increase of 26.74%; oil - based daily production profit is - 178 yuan per ton; the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products has increased by 0.5% week - on - week [9] - LLDPE supply is expected to remain at a high level, downstream factory restocking is phased, and the market price is weak [9] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1347 yuan per ton, oscillating weakly recently; weekly soda ash output is 74.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%; soda ash manufacturer total inventory is 186.51 tons, a weekly increase of 3.86%; float glass operating rate is 75.19%, a weekly increase of 0.19%; the national average price of float glass is 1199 yuan per ton, a day - on - day decrease of 1 yuan per ton; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 6184.7 ten - thousand weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 3.95% [10] - Float glass production is stable, inventory has increased, and the domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillating [10]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国财长贝森特称，已经开始美联储新任主 席的面试流程。另有消息称，美联储理事沃勒被特朗普团队视 作美联储主席的优先人选之一。沃勒已经会见特朗普的团队。 他们对沃勒的降息意愿感到印象深刻。评：关于美联储官员的 变化将进一步强化未来宽松政策取向，利多黄金。另外，俄乌 冲突或即将画上句号，利多风险资产，利空避险资产。美黄金 再度创出新高，央行购金或是重要支撑力量。黄金走势，尚需 进一步观察。关注美元和黄金的跷跷板效应。 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1347元/吨，近期震荡 偏弱；纯碱周度产量74.46万吨，环比+6.4%；纯碱厂家总库存 186.51万吨，周上升3.86%；浮法玻璃开工率75.19%，周度 +0.19%；全国浮法玻璃均价1200元/吨，环比上日-14元/吨；全 国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6184.7万重箱，环比上升3.95%。 评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存上升，需求支撑乏力，中下游采 买积极性不高，玻璃企业出货继续承压。国内纯碱市场走势一 般，价格弱稳运行，成交不温不火，下游刚需采购为主。预计 纯碱01合约短期震荡运行，上方压力1355一线，建议观望或短 ...

重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计314家独立洗煤厂样本产能利用 率为36.2%，环比增1.19%；精煤日产26.0万吨，环比增0.6万 吨；精煤库存288.1万吨，环比增2.1万吨。评：需求端，焦炭 第五轮提涨落地后，焦企利润进一步修复，当前开工维持稳 定，叠加终端高炉铁水产量支撑需求，焦煤刚需仍存。综合来 看，焦煤基本面短期矛盾尚不突出，仍对价格形成支撑，预计 短期焦煤价格震荡运行。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，对来自印度 的商品加征25%的额外关税，从而使印度面临的总关税税率达到 50%，以回应印度继续"直接或间接进口俄罗斯石油"。新加的 25%关税将在21天后生效，此前首轮25%关税将于本周四生效。 美国总统特朗普称，将对芯片和半导体加征约100%的关税。如 果你在美国建厂，将无需缴纳关税。评：美国关税依然大棒挥 舞，避险情绪依然存在。9月降息预期增加，美元大跌，黄金高 位震荡，但进一步上涨动力不足。黄金超过前期高点的概率较 低，中期依然高位震荡略偏空。关注美元和黄金的跷跷板效 应。 投资咨询中心 2025年08月07日 今 日 早 评 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.c ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities, including predictions on price trends and trading suggestions [1][3][4]. Summaries by Commodity 1. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national heavy - quality soda ash mainstream price is 1353 yuan/ton, with recent weak oscillations. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 1370 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [1]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol starts at a high level and continues to rise. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 2485 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **PX**: PX supply and demand turns marginally weaker. It is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by increased domestic supply and decreased demand [12]. 2. Metals - **Gold**: The US economic downward pressure increases, but the global economy recovers. The dollar index has weak rebound momentum, which is bullish for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will remain in a high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish mid - term trend [1]. - **Silver**: Trump criticizes the Fed again, increasing market risk appetite. The dollar index has weak rebound momentum, and silver oscillates bullishly [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume rebounds. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate following the sector [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is fair, but the supply - demand relationship may become looser in the long - term. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4]. - **Rebar**: High cost and low demand compete, and the steel price may oscillate in a narrow range in the short - term [4]. 3. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on OPEC+ production cuts and US sanctions on Russia. The international crude oil price is under pressure and is expected to be weak in the short - term [11]. 4. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: The short - term market maintains a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short - term or long - term layout of LH2511 long positions [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic spot fundamentals are weak, but there is limited downward space in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see if it can break through the previous high of 9106 yuan/ton [8]. 5. Others - **Plastic**: LLDPE production enterprises' inventory decreases, and the price decline slows down. The L2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 7390 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic downward pressure increases, and liquidity eases, which is bullish for the short - end bond market. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic [9]. - **Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The policy is positive, but the stock market recovers, and the bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw [10]. - **Rubber**: The overall supply - demand of rubber is expected to be tight throughout the year. The rubber price is expected to continue to rebound in the short - term [13].