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专访ATFX亚太区首席分析师:美国“股债汇三杀”或成常态
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-07-09 13:21
随着今年全球资金"搬家",主要市场的表现也由此出现大幅分化。 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 今年上半年,道指上涨3.64%,纳指涨5.48%,标普500指数涨5.50%。对比来看,韩国KOSPI指数大涨 28.04%,德国DAX指数上涨20.09%,恒生指数涨20.00%,巴西IBOVESPA指数涨15.59%。这也与今年 部分资金从美国转向欧洲、中国等市场的流向变化相互印证。MSCI新兴市场股票指数上半年累计上涨 近14%,创2017年以来最佳同期表现。 ATFX亚太区首席分析师林铭添近日在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时表示,过去几年,美股成为资本 追逐的焦点。然而,今年上半年,美国政府宣布向全球多国加征关税,导致全球股市受挫,美国股市也 出现大幅下跌。尽管后期美国关税政策缓和,美股出现V型反弹并创出新高,但涨幅明显落后于其他市 场。在美国政策的不确定性下,资金逐步从美国流向欧洲、亚洲等资本市场。 今年美国频繁出现"股债汇三杀",林铭添预计,在美国政治与政策的不确定因素下,未来"股债汇三 杀"可能会是常态。美国巨额债务削弱了市场信心和金融稳定性,美国政府挑战传统资本循环体系,增 加了不确定性。长期来看 ...
产业经济周观点:中特估的特殊性源自全球格局的变化,并将长期演绎-20250706
Huafu Securities· 2025-07-06 13:26
华福证券 2025 年 07 月 06 日 策 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 告 中特估的特殊性源自全球格局的变化,并将长期 演绎——产业经济周观点 投资要点: 近期观点 1、 美国制造业资本开支持续放缓,制造业就业恶化,产能周期 可能阶段性停滞。 2、 短期中国财政或在托底,中期出口有望超预期,长期消费或 将持续复苏。 3、 红利向低 PB 扩散是市场风险偏好上升的表现,也是在等待经 济复苏的时间窗口。 4、 中国特殊估值体系的显现本质是对原有全球产出和资本循环 瓦解的一种反应。 5、 反内卷是经济发展模式长期变化的印证,ROE 中枢或将趋势 上升决定了中国资产重估的长期性,大盘股溢价小盘股折价或是长期 经济发展模式下的结果。 6、 看好核心资产风格,低 PB 行业,大金融,恒生国企,恒生科 技,黄金能源有色,关注微盘风险。 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻;中美关系改善不及预期;美国地产市场不 健康 分析师: 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师: 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、上游、医药多主题 ...
政策助推资本循环加速 广东并购重组驶入“快车道”
Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang· 2025-07-03 12:35
转自:新华财经 优化监管服务机制。广东证监局建立发展专班工作机制,通过走访座谈、专题培训、印发专刊等方式, 形成工作服务台账,动态更新上市公司并购重组进展、困难与诉求,"一司一策"制定推动方案。同时, 组织举办新"国九条""并购六条""重组新规"系列专题培训会,累计培训上市公司实际控制人、董监高等 超1500人次。 搭建综合服务平台。广东证监局联合广东省委金融办指导成立"广东资本市场并购重组联盟",各证券交 易所、省内有关政府部门大力支持,国有投资平台、产业集团、创投机构、股权交易中心、行业协会、 上市公司、商业银行,以及证券公司等各类专业服务机构踊跃加盟;同步指导广东上市公司协会建立并 购重组"标的库",助力上市公司提升并购效率,目前并购重组"标的库"在库企业已超千家。 新华财经广州7月3日电(记者孟盈如) 记者从广东证监局获悉,随着并购新规陆续出台,广东并购重 组市场活力迸发,不断加速。"并购六条"发布以来,广东辖区上市公司新增披露并购重组227单,涉及 金额780亿元,交出亮眼的成绩单。 畅通资本循环 重磅案例接续落地 广东证监局数据显示,目前广东辖区内披露、完成重大资产重组交易超20单,持续位居全国首 ...
21深度|全球市场“大逆转”
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-07-01 12:41
21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道日中则移,月满则亏,物盛则衰。过去多年,美股的表现曾一骑绝 尘,但如今,"美国例外论"遭遇严峻考验。 尽管近期美股再创新高,但今年表现仍跑输其他主要市场。今年上半年,道指上涨3.64%,纳指涨 5.48%,标普500指数涨5.50%。对比来看,韩国KOSPI指数大涨28.04%,德国DAX指数上涨20.09%,恒 生指数涨20.00%,巴西IBOVESPA指数涨15.59%。这也和今年部分资金从美国转向欧洲、中国等市场的 流动相互印证。MSCI新兴市场股票指数上半年累计上涨近14%,创2017年以来最佳同期表现。 与此同时,上半年美元指数则创下逾50年来最大同期跌幅。过去六个月,美元指数跌逾10%,上一次在 上半年出现如此大幅度的贬值还要追溯到1973年。而MSCI新兴市场外汇指数上涨7.2%,创2003年以来 最佳同期表现。 美元的暴跌也让美股的表现相对更加黯淡。标普500指数近期创下历史新高,但如果将标普500指数的回 报率从以美元计价转换为欧元计价,则距离历史高点仍有10%的差距。对于美国投资者来说,美元走弱 也可能会鼓励他们将目光投向美国以外的市场。 申万宏源证券首席 ...
93亿套现始祖鸟股份,方源资本“高位离场”
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-06-06 11:38
在股价持续冲高、屡创新高的关键节点,始祖鸟母公司亚玛芬体育(简称"亚玛芬")的股东却释放出减持信号。 亚玛芬在近期发布公告显示,公司主要股东方源资本(FountainVestPartners)寻求出售其一半持股,以37.20美元-37.73美元的价格,出售3500万股亚玛芬 股票,套现约13亿美元(约人民币93亿元)。 这一操作不仅让方源资本在6年前46亿欧元联合收购的投资中收回成本并实现超额收益,更引发市场对"中产三宝"之一始祖鸟未来增长可持续性的担忧。 投资方在企业市值高点选择退出是正常的资本循环,还是对公司前景有所疑虑?南都·湾财社记者针对该事件分别向方源资本、亚玛芬方面发去采访函,但 截至发稿尚未取得回应。 伴随业绩上涨,亚玛芬市值从收购时的约46亿欧元跃升至2025年6月的超200亿美元,翻近4倍。 为何选择在品牌估值登临历史高点时套现?有分析认为这是资本对市场周期的精准把控。此次方源资本出售一半持股后,仍保留6.2%股份,既锁定13亿美 元现金收益,又留存未来增长红利。 但在部分业内人士看来,方源资本的减持或许只是一个开始。在消费分级与宏观经济波动的双重作用下,高端品牌的资本估值与"市场真实需求" ...
EPR Properties(EPR) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-08 13:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's first quarter revenue increased by 4.7% year over year, reaching $175 million compared to $167.2 million in the prior year [6][28] - FFO as adjusted per share rose by 5.3% to $1.19 from $1.13 in the previous year, while AFFO increased by 8% to $1.21 from $1.12 [6][27] - The company is increasing its 2025 earnings guidance, with FFO as adjusted per share expected to range from $5.00 to $5.16, representing a 4.3% increase at the midpoint compared to the prior year [33][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The experiential portfolio comprises 276 properties, accounting for 94% of total investments, which are 99% leased or operated [11][12] - The education portfolio consists of 55 properties, which were 100% leased at the end of the quarter [11] - Percentage rents for the quarter increased to $3.3 million from $1.9 million in the prior year, primarily due to one early childhood education center tenant [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The North American box office for Q1 was $1.4 billion, down 11.6% year over year, largely due to the underperformance of "Snow White" [12] - However, Q2 box office through early May reached $1.1 billion, leading to a year-to-date increase of 17.1% compared to the same period in 2024 [13] - The company estimates the North American box office for 2025 will be between $9.3 billion and $9.7 billion [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on capital recycling, selling theater and education assets to reinvest in experiential properties [7][24] - New investments include a construction-themed attraction and a private golf club, reflecting the company's strategy to diversify its experiential portfolio [7][23] - The company aims to maintain disciplined investment spending, with a guidance range of $200 million to $300 million for 2025 [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the resilience of experiential spending, noting that consumers often seek affordable entertainment options during economic downturns [10][37] - The company is closely monitoring potential tariffs impacting the film industry but believes that the current film slate for 2025 and 2026 is largely unaffected [37][89] - Management highlighted the ongoing strength in the box office and the importance of a robust film slate for future growth [16][86] Other Important Information - The company sold 10 leased early education centers, generating net proceeds of $70.8 million and recognizing a gain of $9.4 million [25] - The company has a strong liquidity position with $20.6 million in cash and $105 million drawn on its $1 billion revolving credit facility [33] - The common dividend was increased by 3.5% to $3.54 per share annualized, expected to be well covered with an AFFO payout ratio of 71% [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more details on the golf investment? - Management indicated that the golf investment is in a private club with reliable income flow and opportunities for growth due to scarcity in the market [44][46] Question: What is the nature of the buyers for recent dispositions? - Management noted a robust process with multiple bids from quality buyers, including a private fund specializing in education [47][49] Question: How do you see the strength of consumers today? - Management observed resilience in consumer spending, particularly in experiential activities, despite some pressure on food spending [100][102]
太古地产(01972) - 2024 H2 - 业绩电话会
2025-03-13 08:45
Swire Properties (01972) H2 2024 Earnings Call March 13, 2025 04:45 AM ET Company Participants Tim Blackburn - Chief ExecutiveFanny Lung - Finance DirectorKarl Chan - Executive Director - Equity ResearchKarl Choi - Senior DirectorCindy C. - Vice President - Regulatory Transformation Program ManagementPraveen Choudhary - Managing DirectorMark Leung - Director - Equity Research Operator Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to SOIA Properties twenty twenty four Annual Results Analyst Briefing. Before ...
Sunstone Hotel Investors(SHO) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-02-22 02:27
Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. (NYSE:SHO) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call February 21, 2025 1:00 PM ET Company Participants Aaron Reyes - CFO Bryan Giglia - CEO Robert Springer - President and Chief Investment Officer Conference Call Participants Duane Pfennigwerth - Evercore ISI Smedes Rose - Citi Dori Kesten - Wells Fargo Michael Bellisario - Baird Chris Darling - Green Street Chris Woronka - Deutsche Bank Floris van Dijkum - Compass Point Patrick Scholes - Truist Securities Operator Good morning, ladies ...