// 市场要闻 // 1、CPI、 PPI数据将公布 12月10日，国家统计局将公布11月CPI、PPI数据。 华创证券预计11月CPI同比增速有望从上月0.2%回升至0.7%左右。CPI同比增速大幅回升，主因是食品价格扰动。去年11月食品项环比 为-2.7%，是过去十年最低 ； 今年11月环比预计为1.1%。食品价格的波动主要源于天气影响下的菜价，今年10月中下旬以后气温偏低、秋雨 增多，局部地区遭受低温冷冻灾害或暴雨洪涝灾害，导致部分蔬菜市场供应偏紧。 2、11月金融数据或将公布 除CPI、PPI外，11月新增贷款、M2、社融等金融数据也或将在本周公布。 浙商证券预计11月人民币贷款新增3000亿元，同比少增2800亿元，对应增速回落0.1个百分点为6.4%；预计11月社融新增2.2万亿元，同比少 增约342 亿元，对应增速回落0.1 个百分点为8.4% ； 预计11 月M2 增速为8.0%，回落0.2个百分点 ； 预计11 月M1 增速为5.3%，回落0.9 个百 分点。 3、央行公开市场将有6638亿元逆回购到期 Wind数据显示，本周央行公开市场将有6638亿元逆回购到期，其中本周一至本周五分别到期 ...

每日经济新闻 中信证券分析称，12月份市场面临美联储降息与否、中央经济工作会议部署等变量，考虑到市场增量资 金主要以绝对收益导向资金为主，A股/港股可能出现"急跌慢涨"。从配置角度看，资源/传统制造业定 价权的重估、企业出海仍是核心增配方向，建议关注化工、电新等方向。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.4%，石油石化行业占比为32.7%，有望充分受益于反内卷、调结构和 淘汰落后产能等政策。 12月1日，A股三大股指高开，沪指涨0.14％，深成指涨0.42％，创业板涨0.26％。中证石化产业指数震 荡上行，现涨约1.4%，成分股和邦生物涨停，藏格矿业、亚钾国际、三棵树等跟涨。相关ETF方面， 石化ETF（159731）近6天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"1882.16万元，资金布局特征明显。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on opportunities in resource and traditional manufacturing industries, highlighting the advantages of leading companies in sectors where China has a global market share [1] Group 1: Market Characteristics - The market is characterized by low volatility and a slow bull trend, with a notable decrease in the volatility of major broad-based indices [1] - The maximum drawdown of the Shanghai Composite Index this year is -9.7%, which is significantly lower than previous years, indicating a relatively stable market environment [1] - The Sharpe ratios for major indices have improved, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index exceeding 1, indicating favorable risk-adjusted returns [1] Group 2: Performance of Investment Strategies - Subjective long-only products have slightly outperformed the Wind All A index but continue to lag behind quantitative strategies, with average returns of 23.3% compared to 26.4% for Wind All A and 35.2% for quantitative products [2] - The gap between private and public subjective long strategies has reached a peak, with private strategies underperforming public ones by 7.6 percentage points [3] - The performance of balanced market selection products remains mediocre, indicating limited excess returns from stock selection despite significant index gains [2][3] Group 3: Capital Flow and Investment Behavior - There is a notable increase in allocation-type capital and quantitative pricing power, while the growth of active stock-picking funds is limited [4] - The influx of capital from insurance funds and "fixed income plus" products has contributed to market stability, but these funds are less sensitive to individual stock fundamentals [4] - The main source of active capital driving rapid increases in high-growth sectors has been margin financing, which has seen a net increase of approximately 700 billion yuan over two months [5] Group 4: Market Strategy and Outlook - The prevailing strategy among subjective long investors has become cautious, characterized by a "squat, hit, and withdraw" approach due to the lack of pricing power in individual stocks [6] - The report suggests that breaking the current market deadlock will require significant positive changes in fundamentals, particularly in domestic demand [7] - Without unexpected changes in fundamentals, the anticipated market movements may only reflect existing structural logic, limiting potential upside [7]

Core Viewpoint - The volatility of global risk assets is primarily a liquidity issue, but fundamentally stems from an over-reliance on a single narrative surrounding AI, leading to potential valuation corrections as industrial development, particularly commercialization, lags behind market expectations [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market environment may see a shift where the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets could experience "sharp declines followed by slow recoveries," similar to trends observed in the US market [1] - The influx of absolute return-oriented funds is enhancing the intrinsic stability of the market, providing a foundation for future investments [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There is a potential opportunity for investors to reallocate towards A-shares and Hong Kong stocks by the end of the year, particularly in preparation for 2026, as current risk levels are being released [1] - Key areas for allocation include the re-evaluation of pricing power in resource and traditional manufacturing sectors, as well as the ongoing trend of companies expanding overseas [1] Group 3: Strategy Considerations - The strategy of high-cut low investment may face increased difficulty in timing rotations due to overly consistent expectations among investors [1]