2026 年 3 月 3 日 总量研究 短线重视资源品配置机会 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20260303 要点 市场核心观点： 上周（2026.02.24-2026.02.27）A 股实现震荡上行，中证 1000 周度上涨 4.34%、 领涨主要宽基指数。量能表现方面，主要宽基指数量能震荡回升，截至上周五 （2026.02.27，下同）主要宽基指数量能择时维持谨慎观点，市场进一步上行或 需量能进一步提振。资金面方面，周度融资增加额转正，市场风险偏好有所提升。 近期中东局势发生剧烈变化，带动资源品价格震荡上行，或影响权益市场相关板 块价格表现。当前市场量能仍在修复阶段，量能未能持续突破下，权益指数难有 强势上涨表现。风险偏好提升背景下，市场或震荡上行。短期看好资源品配置机 会，中长期仍看好"红利+科技"配置主线。 上周市场各指数均表现为上涨，上证综指上涨 1.98%，上证 50 上涨 0.17%，沪 深 300 上涨 1.08%，中证 500 上涨 4.32%，中证 1000 上涨 4.34%，创业板指 上涨 1.05%，北证 50 指数上涨 0.48%。 截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日，宽基指数来看， ...

2025年，有色金属板块以94.73%的年度涨幅领跑全球，其背后是"供需重构+技术革命+货币变迁"的三 重驱动。从传统建筑、家电到AI数据中心、航空航天等高精尖领域，有色金属已成为新工业基石，为 投资者提供穿越经济波动的配置价值。 2月25日，三大指数盘中回落，有色黄金相关产品涨幅收窄，截至14点40分，有色金属ETF基金 （516650） 涨幅收窄至3.21%，其持仓股云南锗业、安宁股份、有研新材、北方稀土涨停，驰宏锌锗、 锡业股份打开涨停板。 中银国际证券分析指出，展望后市，我们重申此前观点，一季度为资源品重要配置时点，近期海外不确 定性的升温有望为本轮资源品行情带来新一轮催化。短期来看，美伊局势的演变为油价及贵金属价格重 要影响因素。而美国贸易政策不确定性的重启，或将再度对贵金属价格形成较强支撑。此外，春节复工 后，国内开工情况及两会前夕的宏观政策落地情况对于煤炭为代表的内需资源品行情的持续性有着较为 重要的影响。总体来看，我们认为，一季度资源品配置正当时，而 2026 年内有色为代表的全球资源品 有望持续受益于金融属性与产业趋势的共振催化。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

2月25日，港股通红利ETF广发（520900）交投活跃，盘中涨幅超1.5%，截至发稿涨0.18%，成交额9123 万元。中银国际证券表示，一季度为资源品重要配置时点，近期海外不确定性的升温有望为本轮资源品 行情带来新一轮催化。短期来看，美伊局势的演变为油价及贵金属价格重要影响因素。而美国贸易政策 不确定性的重启，或将再度对贵金属价格形成较强支撑。此外，春节复工后，国内开工情况及两会前夕 的宏观政策落地情况对于煤炭为代表的内需资源品行情的持续性有着较为重要的影响。总体来看，一季 度资源品配置正当时。资料显示，港股通红利ETF广发（520900）及其场外联接（022719/022720）紧 密跟踪中证国新港股通央企红利指数（931722.CSI），重仓三桶油、三大电信运营商、中国神华等龙头 央企，呈现出显著的价值风格和防御性特征。为投资者提供了一键布局港股红利资产的便捷入口，让稳 健收益与长期价值兼得。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a “downward” rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the consecutive wrong policies of the United States [4] - The United States' return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US bonds, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] Summaries by Related Contents Global Economic News - BofA's Hartnett believes the current biggest risk comes from the rapid appreciation of the Japanese yen, South Korean won, and New Taiwan dollar, which may reverse Asian capital outflows and threaten the global market's liquidity environment. He is bullish on the long - term prospects of international stocks and gold, with China being his most favored market, and predicts that gold may break through $6,000 [1] - UBS states that the expansion basis of the US economy is rapidly narrowing, with almost all marginal improvements in investment, consumption, and employment tied to the single theme of artificial intelligence. If the AI investment boom cools down, the US economy will quickly lose its core support, and the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is about 50% [1] - The US warns South Korean semiconductor companies that if they do not invest in building factories in the US, they may face a maximum 100% tariff. However, due to unstable tariff expectations and the sharp decline of the South Korean won, South Korea's finance department says large - scale investment in the US is "unlikely to start in the first half of this year" [1] - The new version Claude Opus 4.5 of Claude Code shows amazing capabilities, but its popularity has intensified the market's panic about the disruption of the software industry. A basket of SaaS stocks tracked by Morgan Stanley has fallen 15% since the beginning of the year, the worst start since 2022 [1] - EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on $93 billion worth of US goods exported to the EU or restricting US companies from entering the EU market to counter US President Trump's tariff hikes on eight European countries for the sake of Greenland. Recently, many countries participated in the "Arctic Endurance" military exercise initiated by Denmark in Greenland [1] Global Economic Logic - The US has taken actions such as seizing Venezuela's oil and buying Greenland by force, which has led the global political order into a chaotic period and brought great uncertainty to the global economy. It has also imposed punitive tariffs on eight European countries, leading to potential tariff counter - attacks from European countries [2] - A US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Nomura predicts that uncertainties related to the Fed will peak from July to November 2026, and there may be a trend of "fleeing US assets" in the market at that time [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, purchases $40 billion in short - term bonds per month, and its balance sheet has restarted expansion [2] - A Goldman Sachs analyst warns that the current downward trend in Las Vegas gambling revenue is highly similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US has released a new version of its "National Security Strategy", abandoning global hegemony and planning to adjust economic relations with China to revitalize its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K - shaped differentiation has intensified, with high - income consumers maintaining spending resilience while low - and middle - income families are tightening their belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.18% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 to 5 years to meet the rising demand for AI services [2] - TSMC estimates its capital expenditure in 2026 to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a year - on - year increase of 27% to 37%, which is expected to reach a record high. Its strong Q4 performance and 2026 revenue guidance signal the continuation of the AI boom and restore investors' confidence in AI demand resilience [2]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like Ukraine and Iran, have led to a surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs, which has positively impacted the performance of related ETFs and stocks in the metals sector [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of January 12, gold prices on the international COMEX have surpassed $4600 per ounce, marking a new historical peak [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will rise to $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Yardeni Research has revised its forecast for gold prices from $5000 to $6000 per ounce by the same date, with a long-term outlook suggesting prices could reach $10,000 per ounce by the end of the decade [3]. Group 2: ETF and Stock Performance - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876) saw a price increase of over 2.5% during trading, with a current rise of 0.37%, setting a new high since its listing [1]. - The ETF has attracted significant capital inflow, with a net subscription of 15 million units in real-time and a total of 331 million yuan in the past 10 days [1]. - Key stocks within the ETF, such as Zhong Rare Metals and Shengxin Lithium Energy, have experienced gains exceeding 6% and 4% respectively, while other notable stocks like Shandong Gold and Northern Rare Earth have risen over 2% [1]. Group 3: Broader Market Trends - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF and its associated funds cover a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for comprehensive exposure to various market cycles [4]. - The current market environment is characterized by liquidity easing, frequent supply disruptions, and strong structural demand, which are expected to sustain price increases for metals like copper, aluminum, and strategic battery metals through 2026 [3].