证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券月报】 转债估值高位，关注结构机会 ——转债月报 20250805 ❖ 多轮催化助力市场升温，月末小幅回调。回顾 7 月权益及转债市场，整月双双 快速放量上涨，"反内卷"、特朗普推迟关税、雅江水电站开工多项催化轮番发 力，沪深两所公募基金合计增持可转债3.63%，叠加ETF份额合计提升19.46%， 同样对需求侧提供支撑，整月小盘风格强势。月末在诸多政策落地以及政治局 会议调整"反内卷"政策表述细节后，市场小幅回调。整月万得全 A 上涨 4.75%， 转债指数跟涨 2.87%，估值抬升。 高估值下转债弹性偏弱。转债普涨弹性弱于权益或来自于轮动滞后以及高溢价 率带来的 Delta 走弱，叠加由于 8 月陆续进入中报业绩披露期和政策观察期， 权益市场以及转债更倾向于表现震荡。在当前转债估值仍居于历史高位的情况 下，转债抗跌性存在一定削弱，关注点或转向高估后市表现，以及转债指数是 否会遵循"估值修复指数"的指引如期回落。 复盘历史上转债估值高位阶段，主要包括 2020 年 3 月、2022 年 2 月、2022 年 8 月，主要特征集中于高估值下的回调压力以及高 Delta 带来的转债 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - From July 14 to July 19, 2025, the convertible bond market continued its gentle recovery, with steadily increasing trading activity. The focus of capital allocation shifted towards mid - cap individual bonds with fundamental support and elasticity expectations. The equity market maintained structural differentiation, with the growth style outperforming, and the science - and - technology innovation sectors standing out. There was also capital inflow into the cyclical manufacturing direction. The valuation structure of convertible bonds stretched overall, and the impetus for valuation repair of medium - and high - parity bonds increased. Since 2025, the proportion of convertible bonds held by insurance funds has been continuously rising compared to 2024, indicating that stable long - term funds have a stronger preference for assets that can both increase returns and offer high safety margins. It is recommended to pay attention to high - prosperity directions while evenly allocating medium - and low - priced high - quality convertible bonds with coupon advantages and credit support [2][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Theme Weekly Review 3.1.1 Insurance Funds' Allocation in the Convertible Bond Market - The overall proportion of insurance funds in the convertible bond market has increased. Although the face value of convertible bonds held by insurance institutions has gradually decreased from 64.58 billion yuan in June 2024 to 57.64 billion yuan in June 2025, mainly due to the simultaneous decline in the overall scale of the convertible bond market, the proportion of insurance funds has risen from 7.8% in June 2024 to 8.1% in June 2025, reflecting their enhanced relative allocation willingness [25]. - The participation amount and proportion of insurance funds in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange have steadily increased. In June 2025, the convertible bond holders on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange were mainly fund investors, accounting for 31.7%, a year - on - year increase of 0.9 pct. Insurance institutions held 20.62 billion yuan, accounting for 6.7%, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 pct [27]. - The proportion of insurance funds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange has remained stable, but the holding face value has declined. In June 2025, the convertible bond holders on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were mainly public funds, accounting for 34.0%, a year - on - year increase of 4.0 pct. Insurance institutions held 37.02 billion yuan, accounting for 9.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 pct, possibly due to the conversion or maturity of some bank convertible bonds [33]. 3.1.2 Equity Market Weekly Review - The trading themes in the equity market were active. The rare earth index led the market with a 17.5% weekly increase and a trading volume of 118.89 billion yuan. The pharmaceutical technology theme was prominent, with the innovative drug index rising 10.8%, the weight - loss drug index climbing 9.6%, etc. The new energy sector showed a slight recovery, and the digital economy field was structurally differentiated [37]. 3.1.3 Convertible Bond Market Weekly Review - The convertible bond market continued to rise, with a moderately narrowing increase, reaching a new high in trading activity. The market style shifted towards small - cap bonds, which led the gains, indicating an increase in capital's risk appetite. In terms of valuation, the low - parity range saw valuation repair, while the high - parity range experienced some compression. The implied volatility fluctuated upward, and market sentiment stabilized and recovered. The home appliance, computer, and communication sectors led the gains, and the trading focus continued to gather in the pharmaceutical, basic chemical, and power equipment sectors [42]. 3.2 Market Weekly Tracking 3.2.1 Main Stock Indexes Strengthened, with High - Prosperity Sectors as the Week's Main Line - The main A - share stock indexes continued to strengthen. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.0%, and the ChiNext Index led with a 3.2% increase. The science - and - technology innovation mid - and small - cap stocks performed well, with the CSI 300 rising 1.1%, the STAR 50 rising 1.7%, etc. [43]. - The market's main funds continued to flow out, and the outflow pressure intensified. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was about 1.5 trillion yuan, the same as the previous week. The trading sentiment of the main funds weakened marginally [44]. - The A - share market maintained a structurally differentiated pattern, with high - prosperity sectors performing strongly. The communication sector led the gains with a 7.5% increase, followed by the pharmaceutical, computer, and non - ferrous metal sectors. The banking sector was weak, with a 3.4% decline [48]. - The trading volume of leading sectors expanded with the increase in prices. The communication sector had the largest increase in trading volume, and the automotive sector also showed significant improvement. The non - bank financial sector had a slight increase but a decrease in trading volume, indicating an expansion of capital divergence [49]. - The market's sector congestion was differentiated. The textile and apparel sector was close to historical high levels in terms of congestion indicators. The communication sector had a high trading volume but a relatively low turnover rate. Some sectors such as food and beverage had low capital attention, while the real estate sector showed a divergence between trading volume and turnover rate [56]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Market Followed the Upward Trend, with Small - Cap Convertible Bonds Performing Well - The convertible bond market continued to rise, with the increase narrowing compared to the previous week. Small - cap convertible bonds led the gains. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.7%, the Wind Small - Cap Convertible Bond Index rose 1.3%, the mid - cap index rose 0.5%, and the large - cap index rose 0.3%. The trading activity of the convertible bond market increased, with an average daily trading volume of about 73.84 billion yuan, a 2.4 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [60]. - Valuation: By parity range, the overall valuation of the convertible bond market stretched, with differentiation in the high - parity range. By market price range, the valuation showed a differentiated and structurally adjusted pattern. The implied volatility of the convertible bond market continued to rise, and the median price of convertible bonds oscillated upward, indicating a relatively high level of market trading sentiment [65][71][72]. - By sector, the convertible bond market generally strengthened, and capital concentration increased. 25 industries rose, 4 industries fell, and 14 industries had an increase of over 1%. The home appliance, computer, and communication sectors led the gains, while the coal sector led the decline. The pharmaceutical, basic chemical, and power equipment sectors had the highest trading volumes [77]. - Individual bonds generally strengthened. The top - performing convertible bonds were mostly driven by their underlying stocks, with high - elasticity and medium - duration characteristics. The underperforming bonds were dragged down by their underlying stocks [82][84]. 3.3 Primary Market Tracking and Clause Games 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Plan - Two new convertible bonds were listed, and seven companies updated their issuance plans. The total scale of projects in the exchange - acceptance stage and later was 64.96 billion yuan [88][89][94]. 3.3.2 Clause Games - Regarding the downward - revision clause: 8 bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revision, 4 bonds announced no downward revision, and 1 bond proposed downward revision [99]. - Regarding the redemption clause: 5 bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption, 3 bonds announced no early redemption, and 5 bonds announced early redemption [106].

证券研究报告：银行业|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 4479.03 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 4479.03 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3132.76 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 27% 31% 银行 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 l 风险提示： 数据统计误差，外部事件超预期恶化，银行不良资产大面积暴露。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 《银行资负观察第二期：存款降息对 大行负债影响几何？》 - 2025.05.30 金融可转债研究：金融转债梳理推荐 l 投资要点 板块供需矛盾仍突出：截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，转债市场目前存 续个券约 ...